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August 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest


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I agree with this of course. I am just saying one does not necessarily lead to another. Of course in a warming climate we will be warmer overall. I don't believe this coming winter will be warmer than average because this summer was hot. I believe it will be warmer than average because of ENSO climo and that our winters have trended warmer over the long term.

You are all over the place this morning. :lol: I am not even calling for a warmer than average winter at this point. Haven’t put much thought into it. And the latter reasons you gave can probably also explain our warmer summers.

 

Only point I’m making is that there is zero correlation at best between hot summers and cold winters, looking at our long term climate history. Probably a negative correlation if anything. That is pretty cut and dry. Everything else has been extraneous side points.

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You are all over the place this morning. :lol: I am not even calling for a warmer than average winter at this point. Haven’t put much thought into it. And the latter reasons you gave can probably also explain our warmer summers.

 

Only point I’m making is that there is zero correlation at best between hot summers and cold winters, looking at our long term climate history. Probably a negative correlation if anything. That is pretty cut and dry. Everything else has been extraneous side points.

 

I feel as if you are trying to argue for the sake of it. I am not saying there is a correlation between hot summers and cold winters. I am saying I don't really think there is much correlation at all. Which it seems like, is what you are saying. 

 

The crux of my argument is...NO CORRELATION. 

 

Maybe I can get Trump to tweet it and people will take note.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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No, that is what you are doing. :lol:

 

I’ve known you for long enough to be pretty familiar with your style of trolling, Andrew. ;)

 

No trolling going on. I am not even arguing. I am trying to have a conversation with someone who has no understanding of nuance, and it is pretty unproductive...

 

To be fair I disagree with those saying hot summer = cold winter. But I thought broaching it with you would be more productive as you at least show the ability to understand basic concepts and logic, unlike some of the other posters who were pushing that incoherent theory.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Hopefully we can outrun the smoke this morning before it hits the central coast!

 

I was hoping the rain up north yesterday would do a little more to help the BC wildfires.

Not sure if the rain made it far enough to the NW to get at where the bigger fires are burning. There was definitely some beneficial rain in parts of the south though, at least 3 major highway closures due to mudslides. I’d guess there will be at least 100 new fires started by the lightning yesterday.
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No trolling going on. I am not even arguing. I am trying to have a conversation with someone who has no understanding of nuance, and it is pretty unproductive...

 

To be fair I disagree with those saying hot summer = cold winter. But I thought broaching it with you would be more productive as you at least show the ability to understand basic concepts and logic, unlike some of the other posters who were pushing that incoherent theory.

Thanks. I get the nuances of what you are trying to say. It seems like you are dicking around just a tad too, though.

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38999957_2050922848259435_63527050683193

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Just for fun, the average highs and lows for the JJA periods leading up to PDX’s top five coldest winters:

 

June: 72.9/52.8

July: 79/56

August: 76.1!!/56.1

 

Toasty!

 

The last time PDX had an average high below 76.1 in August was 1989...

 

We have had a sub-80 average in July as recently as 2016 (!). 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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12z GFS is much cooler than previous runs for later this week (Thu-Sat).

 

Praise be to our heavenly Father. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Got a little rain yesterday, but no real convection. Nice and cool this morning/ almost afternoon. Experienced the smoke in Chelan last week, smelled in the afternoon especially. Wasn't real bad while I was there but noticed it got a lot worse starting Friday.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Just for fun, the average highs and lows for the JJA periods leading up to PDX’s top five coldest winters:

 

June: 72.9/52.8

July: 79/56

August: 76.1!!/56.1

 

Toasty!

 

And here's the 2010s UHI/global warming averages so far:

 

June: 74.3/54.5

July: 81.8/58.4

August: 83.2/59.7 (Gonna go up once this month is added of course)

 

Downtown Portland went from 1874 through 1957 without recording any August with a warmer average high than 82.7. 

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There were a number of all time record highs set in Alberta and B.C. yesterday. Calgary broke theirs from 1933. Analog?

You will always have analogs contradicting each other for any given year. You will never have a perfect match. 1933-34 was a warm winter but I don't know much else about it. Was it warm all throughout or did we have some near misses with Arctic outbreaks? Those are the things I would want to know.

 

Also there is another analog pointing to 1949 that is of longer duration. Albany, NY set a new record with consecutive 80+ degree highs this year. I believe it ended yesterday at 44 days. The previous best was 29 days and low and behold it was in 1949. Records date back to 1874 in Albany.

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You will always have analogs contradicting each other for any given year. You will never have a perfect match. 1933-34 was a warm winter but I don't know much else about it. Was it warm all throughout or did we have some near misses with Arctic outbreaks? Those are the things I would want to know.

 

Also there is another analog pointing to 1949 that is of longer duration. Albany, NY set a new record with consecutive 80+ degree highs this year. I believe it ended yesterday at 44 days. The previous best was 29 days and low and behold it was in 1949. Records date back to 1874 in Albany.

Pretty D**n good indication this winter may fall somewhere in between 1949-50 and 1933-34.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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You will always have analogs contradicting each other for any given year. You will never have a perfect match. 1933-34 was a warm winter but I don't know much else about it. Was it warm all throughout or did we have some near misses with Arctic outbreaks? Those are the things I would want to know.

 

Also there is another analog pointing to 1949 that is of longer duration. Albany, NY set a new record with consecutive 80+ degree highs this year. I believe it ended yesterday at 44 days. The previous best was 29 days and low and behold it was in 1949. Records date back to 1874 in Albany.

That’s a fluky statistic. It hasn’t been a hot summer here...1949 was a blast furnace.

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We have been flirting with the smoke line all afternoon in Yachats. Looks to be to the north right now. Marine layer is rolling in though so won’t be able to tell soon.

Make sure you eat at LeRoy's Blue Whale. Dank AF. Also the pizza place in Waldport has amazing garlic knots.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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Judging by that satellite pic it almost appears the smoke is being pulled into the coastal eddy down here. Which would fit with our observations.

I can see the smoke line just to the NW from Springfield. Looks like it's near Corvallis/Albany.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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More dead grass around here than I ever remember seeing.

 

Any idea if the smoke situation will improve tomorrow?

Head out to the Snoqualmie Valley. Not too much dead grass out here.

 

Took this pic getting off I-90 in North Bend last night... grass is still green and growing out here.

 

20180812_194933.jpg

 

No improvement in the smoke situation through Tuesday at least.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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