Jesse Posted August 12, 2018 Report Share Posted August 12, 2018 I agree with this of course. I am just saying one does not necessarily lead to another. Of course in a warming climate we will be warmer overall. I don't believe this coming winter will be warmer than average because this summer was hot. I believe it will be warmer than average because of ENSO climo and that our winters have trended warmer over the long term.You are all over the place this morning. I am not even calling for a warmer than average winter at this point. Haven’t put much thought into it. And the latter reasons you gave can probably also explain our warmer summers. Only point I’m making is that there is zero correlation at best between hot summers and cold winters, looking at our long term climate history. Probably a negative correlation if anything. That is pretty cut and dry. Everything else has been extraneous side points. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 12, 2018 Report Share Posted August 12, 2018 Hopefully we can outrun the smoke this morning before it hits the central coast! I was hoping the rain up north yesterday would do a little more to help the BC wildfires. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted August 12, 2018 Report Share Posted August 12, 2018 You are all over the place this morning. I am not even calling for a warmer than average winter at this point. Haven’t put much thought into it. And the latter reasons you gave can probably also explain our warmer summers. Only point I’m making is that there is zero correlation at best between hot summers and cold winters, looking at our long term climate history. Probably a negative correlation if anything. That is pretty cut and dry. Everything else has been extraneous side points. I feel as if you are trying to argue for the sake of it. I am not saying there is a correlation between hot summers and cold winters. I am saying I don't really think there is much correlation at all. Which it seems like, is what you are saying. The crux of my argument is...NO CORRELATION. Maybe I can get Trump to tweet it and people will take note. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 12, 2018 Report Share Posted August 12, 2018 I feel as if you are trying to argue for the sake of it. No, that is what you are doing. I’ve known you for long enough to be pretty familiar with your style of trolling, Andrew. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted August 12, 2018 Report Share Posted August 12, 2018 No, that is what you are doing. I’ve known you for long enough to be pretty familiar with your style of trolling, Andrew. No trolling going on. I am not even arguing. I am trying to have a conversation with someone who has no understanding of nuance, and it is pretty unproductive... To be fair I disagree with those saying hot summer = cold winter. But I thought broaching it with you would be more productive as you at least show the ability to understand basic concepts and logic, unlike some of the other posters who were pushing that incoherent theory. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted August 12, 2018 Report Share Posted August 12, 2018 Hopefully we can outrun the smoke this morning before it hits the central coast! I was hoping the rain up north yesterday would do a little more to help the BC wildfires.Not sure if the rain made it far enough to the NW to get at where the bigger fires are burning. There was definitely some beneficial rain in parts of the south though, at least 3 major highway closures due to mudslides. I’d guess there will be at least 100 new fires started by the lightning yesterday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 12, 2018 Report Share Posted August 12, 2018 No trolling going on. I am not even arguing. I am trying to have a conversation with someone who has no understanding of nuance, and it is pretty unproductive... To be fair I disagree with those saying hot summer = cold winter. But I thought broaching it with you would be more productive as you at least show the ability to understand basic concepts and logic, unlike some of the other posters who were pushing that incoherent theory.Thanks. I get the nuances of what you are trying to say. It seems like you are dicking around just a tad too, though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 12, 2018 Report Share Posted August 12, 2018 Just for fun, the average highs and lows for the JJA periods leading up to PDX’s top five coldest winters: June: 72.9/52.8July: 79/56August: 76.1!!/56.1 Toasty! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted August 12, 2018 Report Share Posted August 12, 2018 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted August 12, 2018 Report Share Posted August 12, 2018 Probably gonna be too much smoke for 100 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted August 12, 2018 Report Share Posted August 12, 2018 Just for fun, the average highs and lows for the JJA periods leading up to PDX’s top five coldest winters: June: 72.9/52.8July: 79/56August: 76.1!!/56.1 Toasty! The last time PDX had an average high below 76.1 in August was 1989... We have had a sub-80 average in July as recently as 2016 (!). Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted August 12, 2018 Report Share Posted August 12, 2018 Quite the amplified pattern in the long range GFS. Alberta would see snowfall, just 2 weeks after setting numerous all time record highs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Farmboy Posted August 12, 2018 Report Share Posted August 12, 2018 Quite the amplified pattern in the long range GFS. Alberta would see snowfall, just 2 weeks after setting numerous all time record highs. Quote "Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 12, 2018 Report Share Posted August 12, 2018 12z GFS is much cooler than previous runs for later this week (Thu-Sat). 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 12, 2018 Report Share Posted August 12, 2018 Quite the amplified pattern in the long range GFS. Alberta would see snowfall, just 2 weeks after setting numerous all time record highs.Once it shows up on the 300+ hour GFS it might as well have verified. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Farmboy Posted August 12, 2018 Report Share Posted August 12, 2018 12z GFS is much cooler than previous runs for later this week (Thu-Sat).Winter cancel? 1 Quote "Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted August 12, 2018 Report Share Posted August 12, 2018 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted August 12, 2018 Report Share Posted August 12, 2018 12z GFS is much cooler than previous runs for later this week (Thu-Sat). Praise be to our heavenly Father. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 12, 2018 Report Share Posted August 12, 2018 PDX for Thurs-Sat per the 12Z ECMWF... 84, 85, 89. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted August 12, 2018 Author Report Share Posted August 12, 2018 Got a little rain yesterday, but no real convection. Nice and cool this morning/ almost afternoon. Experienced the smoke in Chelan last week, smelled in the afternoon especially. Wasn't real bad while I was there but noticed it got a lot worse starting Friday. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
James Jones Posted August 12, 2018 Report Share Posted August 12, 2018 Just for fun, the average highs and lows for the JJA periods leading up to PDX’s top five coldest winters: June: 72.9/52.8July: 79/56August: 76.1!!/56.1 Toasty! And here's the 2010s UHI/global warming averages so far: June: 74.3/54.5July: 81.8/58.4August: 83.2/59.7 (Gonna go up once this month is added of course) Downtown Portland went from 1874 through 1957 without recording any August with a warmer average high than 82.7. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 12, 2018 Report Share Posted August 12, 2018 Cool for August out there! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 12, 2018 Report Share Posted August 12, 2018 Cool for August out there!Haha! This is funny because it’s been such an insanely warm month! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 12, 2018 Report Share Posted August 12, 2018 Haha! This is funny because it’s been such an insanely warm month!Haha! Haha posts are the new iceburn. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 12, 2018 Report Share Posted August 12, 2018 Haha! Haha posts are the new iceburn.Haha! Yeah it’s looking like it! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted August 12, 2018 Report Share Posted August 12, 2018 Pretty hazy/smoky in Seattle once the morning clouds burned off. Hoping for better visibility tomorrow. Very comfortable temps, though. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 12, 2018 Report Share Posted August 12, 2018 Pretty hazy/smoky in Seattle once the morning clouds burned off. Hoping for better visibility tomorrow. Very comfortable temps, though.**** off. It's been a hot month. DO NOT enjoy the day. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted August 12, 2018 Report Share Posted August 12, 2018 There were a number of all time record highs set in Alberta and B.C. yesterday. Calgary broke theirs from 1933. Analog?You will always have analogs contradicting each other for any given year. You will never have a perfect match. 1933-34 was a warm winter but I don't know much else about it. Was it warm all throughout or did we have some near misses with Arctic outbreaks? Those are the things I would want to know. Also there is another analog pointing to 1949 that is of longer duration. Albany, NY set a new record with consecutive 80+ degree highs this year. I believe it ended yesterday at 44 days. The previous best was 29 days and low and behold it was in 1949. Records date back to 1874 in Albany. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted August 12, 2018 Report Share Posted August 12, 2018 Cool for August out there!It felt cooler than what it actually was because we've been roasting all summer long. In reality it's been around average. PDX had a +1 departure yesterday and today it looks like it will finish at 0. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 12, 2018 Report Share Posted August 12, 2018 You will always have analogs contradicting each other for any given year. You will never have a perfect match. 1933-34 was a warm winter but I don't know much else about it. Was it warm all throughout or did we have some near misses with Arctic outbreaks? Those are the things I would want to know. Also there is another analog pointing to 1949 that is of longer duration. Albany, NY set a new record with consecutive 80+ degree highs this year. I believe it ended yesterday at 44 days. The previous best was 29 days and low and behold it was in 1949. Records date back to 1874 in Albany.Pretty D**n good indication this winter may fall somewhere in between 1949-50 and 1933-34. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted August 12, 2018 Report Share Posted August 12, 2018 You will always have analogs contradicting each other for any given year. You will never have a perfect match. 1933-34 was a warm winter but I don't know much else about it. Was it warm all throughout or did we have some near misses with Arctic outbreaks? Those are the things I would want to know. Also there is another analog pointing to 1949 that is of longer duration. Albany, NY set a new record with consecutive 80+ degree highs this year. I believe it ended yesterday at 44 days. The previous best was 29 days and low and behold it was in 1949. Records date back to 1874 in Albany.That’s a fluky statistic. It hasn’t been a hot summer here...1949 was a blast furnace. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 13, 2018 Report Share Posted August 13, 2018 **** off. It's been a hot month. DO NOT enjoy the day.You are so silly. On the central OR coast right now. Very nice day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 13, 2018 Report Share Posted August 13, 2018 Wall of elevated smoke moving south... Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 13, 2018 Report Share Posted August 13, 2018 We have been flirting with the smoke line all afternoon in Yachats. Looks to be to the north right now. Marine layer is rolling in though so won’t be able to tell soon. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted August 13, 2018 Report Share Posted August 13, 2018 We have been flirting with the smoke line all afternoon in Yachats. Looks to be to the north right now. Marine layer is rolling in though so won’t be able to tell soon.Make sure you eat at LeRoy's Blue Whale. Dank AF. Also the pizza place in Waldport has amazing garlic knots. 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 13, 2018 Report Share Posted August 13, 2018 Wall of elevated smoke moving south... Judging by that satellite pic it almost appears the smoke is being pulled into the coastal eddy down here. Which would fit with our observations. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted August 13, 2018 Report Share Posted August 13, 2018 Judging by that satellite pic it almost appears the smoke is being pulled into the coastal eddy down here. Which would fit with our observations.I can see the smoke line just to the NW from Springfield. Looks like it's near Corvallis/Albany. 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted August 13, 2018 Report Share Posted August 13, 2018 That’s one thick layer of smoke Meteor shower canceled Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted August 13, 2018 Report Share Posted August 13, 2018 More dead grass around here than I ever remember seeing. Any idea if the smoke situation will improve tomorrow? Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 13, 2018 Report Share Posted August 13, 2018 More dead grass around here than I ever remember seeing. Any idea if the smoke situation will improve tomorrow?Head out to the Snoqualmie Valley. Not too much dead grass out here. Took this pic getting off I-90 in North Bend last night... grass is still green and growing out here. No improvement in the smoke situation through Tuesday at least. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.