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August 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest


Geos

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Rewrite history all you want...I know you downplayed the threats that a regionally dry May/June posed, multiple times.

 

Specifically because I said that August would likely be wet.   Looks like it came a little too late.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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12Z ECMWF still shows a more focused area of rain sliding south later this afternoon and overnight.    

 

Looks like SEA will be completely missed as usual in this scenario.  

 

ecmwf_precip_24_washington_5.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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It wasn't so much that you wished the rain was more spread out, it was that you wished your area was as dry as the rest of the region. It wasn't until later in summer that you started wishing for regional rains.

 

It was both... felt like we were robbed of sunny, warm weather and it felt like August was due to be wet across a wider area.

 

I wanted the rain to be more spread out... or if it was going to stay dry across most of the region then I wanted to join in on the sunny, warm weather.    

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Ensembles showing that Labor Day weekend miracle.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Ensembles showing that Labor Day weekend miracle.

Gateway to winter!!!

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

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Ensembles showing that Labor Day weekend miracle.

FWIW... the 12Z ECMWF surface maps shows dry weather with lots of sun and pleasant temps for all 3 days of Labor Day weekend.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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FWIW... the 12Z ECMWF surface maps shows dry weather with lots of sun and pleasant temps for all 3 days of Labor Day weekend.

I'm placing my bet on the GFS being more correct this time.

 

I think next weekend will be more troughy than this weekend.

"Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness."

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Then why did you make reservations? You only do that when you’re confident it will be nice here.

No... I do it because I am expecting it not to be nice here. Nature just finds a way to prove me wrong each time.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Lost in all the anxiety of rain versus no rain is the fact that we look to stay generally troughy pattern the next 7-10 days.

 

A rarity in recent years to see a longish stretch starting this early.

Lost maybe on you? I never said otherwise. ;)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Lost in all the anxiety of rain versus no rain is the fact that we look to stay generally troughy pattern the next 7-10 days.

 

A rarity in recent years to see a longish stretch starting this early.

Hard to put my icy enthusiasm in a box over this particular August development.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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12Z EPS generally agrees with the 12Z ECMWF.      

 

It shows the 576DM line right over Seattle for the entire holiday weekend... a little higher than the operational run.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just stay away from the Oregon Coast on Labor Day weekend.  Don't even bother.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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Solar activity has picked up again in August after being very low in July. This actually bodes well for those rooting for a longer, deeper solar minimum. Mathematically, looking at past solar mins, this cycle is mirroring ones from the Dalton Minimum in its descent.

 

The last solar minimum did as well, with a protracted min from late 2008-early 2010, but this one is coming off a SC 24 peak that was 50% lower than SC 23. I suspect the early onset of -AMO conditions and the coolish Arctic summer are also related.

 

The next few winters should be quite blocky and very interesting.

A forum for the end of the world.

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Earlier than normal? Really feels like this coming winter is basically throw a dart.

 

giphy.gif

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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Hot Labor Day > Nice Labor Day>Smoky Labor Day>>>>Cloudy Labor Day>>>>>>>>>Wet Labor Day

Hot seems very unlikely at this point.

 

12Z ECMWF and EPS show a scenario where we would all be saying it was nice. Hope that does not happen!

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just drove to Snoqualmie Ridge and back to drop off my son. Its amazing how much nicer it looks without the smoke... even with the dark clouds today. It looks vibrant and lush again... just by taking away the low level haze and the orange glow of the last 2-3 weeks.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just drove to Snoqualmie Ridge and back to drop off my son. Its amazing how much nicer it looks without the smoke... even with the dark clouds today. It looks vibrant and lush again... just by taking away the low level haze and the orange glow of the last 2-3 weeks.

STFU Tim.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Never said that. Is this the part when I yell “straw men!!!!”

to show off my thick skinnedness? ;)

It fits though... every time. And you keep doing it so I keep pointing it out.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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