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Lets talk winter 2018/2019

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#1
Black Hole

Posted 03 August 2018 - 09:59 AM

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We are getting to that time of year where we can get a sense of what the major indices might be as we head into winter and we can start to get an idea of what might be possible. While I don't have a huge amount of faith in winter forecasting I've seen some have success. 

*We are in solar minimum, which tends to favor blocking and -AO/-NAO.

*We seem to be moving into weak el nino which can favor a stronger southern storm track, drought in the west and more snow in the east, but that of course depends on where it focuses and how strong. (Modoki, etc)

*We also seem to be moving into -PDO right now. 

*QBO is strongly negative, and will probably start to trend towards positive.

*And anecdotally, winters with *8/*9 have historically been decent to good in the west. 

What are you guys seeing?


BS Atmospheric Science University of Utah May 2015

PhD Candidate Atmospheric Sciences

 

--Emphasis on: Forecasting, Mountain Weather, Numerical Weather Prediction, Data Assimilation

 

Winter 2017/2018

Dec 4: 3.2", 16: 0.9", 20: 2.1", 23: 1.5", 25: 4.6"

Jan 6: 1.5", 20: 10.8", 25: 1.5"

Feb 19: 8.6", 20: 2.4", 23: 7.1", 25: .5"

Mar 4: 13", 15: 1.8", 17: 5.3", 25: 4.2"

April 12: 1", 17: 1.3"

Total: 69.3"

 

 

Winter 2016/17 Snow:
Nov 17: 3.2", 23: 1.6", 28: 9.2" (14)

Dec 1: .5", 16: 2.5", 25: 13" (16)

Jan 2: 5", 3: 2.4", 4: 7.7", 12: 1", 19: 1.2", 21: 13", 23: 6", 24: 1", 25: 3.7", 26: 2.5" (43.5) 

Feb 11: .5", 23: 6.5", 27: 4.5" (13.5)

Mar 5: 5.5" (5.5)

Apr 8: 2", 9: 1.8" (3.8)

May 17: 1" (1)
Total: 96.3"

Lowest Temp: 2F


#2
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 03 August 2018 - 11:45 AM

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Part of me wants to take the reverse-jinx pessimist route but that would be annoying AF. Honestly, I really do feel like there will be at least one regional event this year from Medford to BC.

IMBY, last year was torturous so if it's lame IMBY this year then it will probly be very bad/boring for most of the PNW lowlands. I've gotta think that goddam Greenland vortex will be in play at some point. Main concern is our access to Arctic air feels to me like it is going away.

Monmouth, Oregon Winter 17-18 Stats:

 

Coldest high: 34 (Dec 24)

Coldest low: 22 (Dec 11 & Feb 23)

Total snowfall: 1"

Last snowfall: February 21-22, 2018

Last accumulating snowfall on roads: March 6, 2017

Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)

Last White Christmas: 2008

 

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope


#3
Phil

Posted 03 August 2018 - 02:50 PM

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The early indications aloft indicate a very strong +QBO developing in 2019..westerly anomalies @ 10mb are record breaking in amplitude when juxtaposed on the cycle of the semi-annual oscillation above (SAO).

We’ll probably have westerlies downwelling below 30mb sometime during the upcoming cold season, with residual easterlies holding on at/below 50mb. So while the front half of this winter should follow -QBO climatology, the latter half will probably hinge more on the seasonal tropical forcing climatology as it relates to ENSO/annular modes and any backresonant influence from PV disruptions/SSW.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#4
Phil

Posted 03 August 2018 - 02:57 PM

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I’m still not convinced there will be much of an ENSO this winter, if at all. I’m leaning warm neutral with a modest low frequency tendency towards dateline forcing reflecting the longer term move towards El Niño in 2019/20.

So I’d target the first half of winter for the greatest intreseasonal/MJO forcing and pattern gyrations with some disruptions to the polar vortex/NAM possible during the months of November and December, as well. After that, the pattern may become more +PNA based.
  • Kayla and LNK_Weather like this
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#5
weatherfan2012

Posted 03 August 2018 - 05:40 PM

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The early indications aloft indicate a very strong +QBO developing in 2019..westerly anomalies @ 10mb are record breaking in amplitude when juxtaposed on the cycle of the semi-annual oscillation above (SAO).
We’ll probably have westerlies downwelling below 30mb sometime during the upcoming cold season, with residual easterlies holding on at/below 50mb. So while the front half of this winter should follow -QBO climatology, the latter half will probably hinge more on the seasonal tropical forcing climatology as it relates to ENSO/annular modes and any backresonant influence from PV disruptions/SSW.

2019-2020 could well be the opposite of this fall winter west qbo becoming Easterly

#6
Kayla

Posted 04 August 2018 - 07:04 AM

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Anyone take a look at 1919-20 winter season as a possible analog? I know the previous year was a moderate Niño after a multi-year Niña but 1919-20 ended up warm neutral. Looks like the NAO took a nose dive around then as well.


Warm season June/July/August 2018:

Total rainfall: 4.11"
Highest daily rainfall 0.83"
Coldest high: 51.1ºF
Coldest low: 27.7ºF

Average temp thus far: 60.5ºF 

June: 56.3ºF

July: 63.9ºF

 

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...OZEM152#history


#7
Phil

Posted 04 August 2018 - 07:50 AM

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Looking back, it seems that many of the older years with descending westerly shear tend to have the deepest Arctic air on the Eurasian side of the pole w/ more zonal flow across North America.

However, given the expanse of the cold pool across the NW-Atlantic/NE-Canada and lack of OHC up there, along with the continued displacement of the Pacific warm pool, I’m starting to think there will be some very frigid air up there again this winter (on our side of the pole). The Labrador current has strengthened markedly in recent years along with a very large drop-off in the OHC across the NATL since 2010/11.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#8
Phil

Posted 04 August 2018 - 07:55 AM

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Anyone take a look at 1919-20 winter season as a possible analog? I know the previous year was a moderate Niño after a multi-year Niña but 1919-20 ended up warm neutral. Looks like the NAO took a nose dive around then as well.


I’m riding the 1980s again, for the most part. The are some interesting similarities to the 1984-1986 timeframe right now as far as the tropics/SSTs/solar are concerned.
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Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#9
BLI snowman

Posted 04 August 2018 - 04:20 PM

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Anyone take a look at 1919-20 winter season as a possible analog? I know the previous year was a moderate Niño after a multi-year Niña but 1919-20 ended up warm neutral. Looks like the NAO took a nose dive around then as well.


We simply wouldn't be capable of that kind of result nowadays.
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#10
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 04 August 2018 - 05:54 PM

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We simply wouldn't be capable of that kind of result nowadays.


Depressing but true.

Monmouth, Oregon Winter 17-18 Stats:

 

Coldest high: 34 (Dec 24)

Coldest low: 22 (Dec 11 & Feb 23)

Total snowfall: 1"

Last snowfall: February 21-22, 2018

Last accumulating snowfall on roads: March 6, 2017

Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)

Last White Christmas: 2008

 

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope


#11
Black Hole

Posted 05 August 2018 - 09:27 AM

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Phil, what are you seeing for my area?

I am still getting my thoughts together on this. 


BS Atmospheric Science University of Utah May 2015

PhD Candidate Atmospheric Sciences

 

--Emphasis on: Forecasting, Mountain Weather, Numerical Weather Prediction, Data Assimilation

 

Winter 2017/2018

Dec 4: 3.2", 16: 0.9", 20: 2.1", 23: 1.5", 25: 4.6"

Jan 6: 1.5", 20: 10.8", 25: 1.5"

Feb 19: 8.6", 20: 2.4", 23: 7.1", 25: .5"

Mar 4: 13", 15: 1.8", 17: 5.3", 25: 4.2"

April 12: 1", 17: 1.3"

Total: 69.3"

 

 

Winter 2016/17 Snow:
Nov 17: 3.2", 23: 1.6", 28: 9.2" (14)

Dec 1: .5", 16: 2.5", 25: 13" (16)

Jan 2: 5", 3: 2.4", 4: 7.7", 12: 1", 19: 1.2", 21: 13", 23: 6", 24: 1", 25: 3.7", 26: 2.5" (43.5) 

Feb 11: .5", 23: 6.5", 27: 4.5" (13.5)

Mar 5: 5.5" (5.5)

Apr 8: 2", 9: 1.8" (3.8)

May 17: 1" (1)
Total: 96.3"

Lowest Temp: 2F


#12
Phil

Posted 06 August 2018 - 10:07 PM

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Phil, what are you seeing for my area?

I am still getting my thoughts together on this.


I’m not sure yet on specifics, but (IMO) this feels like a frontloaded winter in the west. At least on the large scale.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#13
TT-SEA

Posted 07 August 2018 - 08:26 AM

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I’m not sure yet on specifics, but (IMO) this feels like a frontloaded winter in the west. At least on the large scale.

 

Front-loaded winters are best... cold and snow in November and December and then be done with it.     :)



#14
iFred

Posted 07 August 2018 - 08:31 AM

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Front-loaded winters are best... cold and snow in November and December and then be done with it.     :)

 

Or no snow and cold. Just upper 50s and low 60s with sun. I dont know why you have an unhealthy obsession with cold or snowy weather when it causes millions in damages, contributes to climate change, and untold hours of lost productivity. The only correct answer for "the best" winters are ones where there is no disruption and weather pleasant enough to enjoy family friendly activities.


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#15
TT-SEA

Posted 07 August 2018 - 08:38 AM

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Or no snow and cold. Just upper 50s and low 60s with sun. I dont know why you have an unhealthy obsession with cold or snowy weather when it causes millions in damages, contributes to climate change, and untold hours of lost productivity. The only correct answer for "the best" winters are ones where there is no disruption and weather pleasant enough to enjoy family friendly activities.

 

 

:lol:

 

This is true.

 

But 60-degree sun is very rare around here from November - January.  



#16
iFred

Posted 07 August 2018 - 08:39 AM

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:lol:

 

This is true.

 

But 60-degree sun is very rare around here from November - January.  

 

Its nice to know that after a decade of bickering, you and I can agree that you hate Snow.


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#17
TT-SEA

Posted 07 August 2018 - 08:51 AM

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Its nice to know that after a decade of bickering, you and I can agree that you hate Snow.

 

 

I love snow in late November and December.   :)



#18
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 07 August 2018 - 10:41 AM

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Or no snow and cold. Just upper 50s and low 60s with sun. I dont know why you have an unhealthy obsession with cold or snowy weather when it causes millions in damages, contributes to climate change, and untold hours of lost productivity. The only correct answer for "the best" winters are ones where there is no disruption and weather pleasant enough to enjoy family friendly activities.


Well this will be an unpopular response for most in this group XD
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Monmouth, Oregon Winter 17-18 Stats:

 

Coldest high: 34 (Dec 24)

Coldest low: 22 (Dec 11 & Feb 23)

Total snowfall: 1"

Last snowfall: February 21-22, 2018

Last accumulating snowfall on roads: March 6, 2017

Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)

Last White Christmas: 2008

 

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope


#19
BLI snowman

Posted 07 August 2018 - 11:38 AM

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I remember being so pissed on January 1, 2004 waking up to heavy snow.

 

Would have been rather majestic just a few hours earlier.


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#20
TT-SEA

Posted 07 August 2018 - 01:15 PM

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I remember being so pissed on January 1, 2004 waking up to heavy snow.

 

Would have been rather majestic just a few hours earlier.

 

 

News Year Day is also acceptable.  

 

Like 1/1/2017 here:

 

15844914_1195132990554907_75985106655155



#21
Black Hole

Posted Today, 06:45 AM

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I was thinking about the AMO and how it appears to have flipped to negative this summer. The connection of the AMO to hurricanes is known, but I wonder about winter weather. What sorts of effects does a +AMO or -AMO have?

 

Also, the PDO looks somewhat negative, how many -PDO +ENSO events have we had? Anybody know offhand?


BS Atmospheric Science University of Utah May 2015

PhD Candidate Atmospheric Sciences

 

--Emphasis on: Forecasting, Mountain Weather, Numerical Weather Prediction, Data Assimilation

 

Winter 2017/2018

Dec 4: 3.2", 16: 0.9", 20: 2.1", 23: 1.5", 25: 4.6"

Jan 6: 1.5", 20: 10.8", 25: 1.5"

Feb 19: 8.6", 20: 2.4", 23: 7.1", 25: .5"

Mar 4: 13", 15: 1.8", 17: 5.3", 25: 4.2"

April 12: 1", 17: 1.3"

Total: 69.3"

 

 

Winter 2016/17 Snow:
Nov 17: 3.2", 23: 1.6", 28: 9.2" (14)

Dec 1: .5", 16: 2.5", 25: 13" (16)

Jan 2: 5", 3: 2.4", 4: 7.7", 12: 1", 19: 1.2", 21: 13", 23: 6", 24: 1", 25: 3.7", 26: 2.5" (43.5) 

Feb 11: .5", 23: 6.5", 27: 4.5" (13.5)

Mar 5: 5.5" (5.5)

Apr 8: 2", 9: 1.8" (3.8)

May 17: 1" (1)
Total: 96.3"

Lowest Temp: 2F


#22
Phil

Posted Today, 08:30 AM

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I was thinking about the AMO and how it appears to have flipped to negative this summer. The connection of the AMO to hurricanes is known, but I wonder about winter weather. What sorts of effects does a +AMO or -AMO have?

Also, the PDO looks somewhat negative, how many -PDO +ENSO events have we had? Anybody know offhand?


Not many, but if there are any legitimate analogs to this regime they’re (probably) largely confined to the 1980s or latter half of the 1970s.
  • Black Hole likes this
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#23
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted Today, 08:40 AM

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Not many, but if there are any legitimate analogs to this regime they’re (probably) largely confined to the 1980s or latter half of the 1970s.


Interesting that it seems there are few analogs for this coming winter. Lots of uncertainty.

Monmouth, Oregon Winter 17-18 Stats:

 

Coldest high: 34 (Dec 24)

Coldest low: 22 (Dec 11 & Feb 23)

Total snowfall: 1"

Last snowfall: February 21-22, 2018

Last accumulating snowfall on roads: March 6, 2017

Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)

Last White Christmas: 2008

 

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope


#24
Front Ranger

Posted Today, 08:46 AM

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Not many, but if there are any legitimate analogs to this regime they’re (probably) largely confined to the 1980s or latter half of the 1970s.


Agreed, though I might throw a few 60s years in there as well.

I'm sure someone will remind us shortly that PNW summers were MUCH cooler in the 1960s-1980s. ;) But I don't think that means the same thing for winter analogs, in a broad sense.
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Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#25
Black Hole

Posted Today, 12:12 PM

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Looking at the PDO/ENSO there are a few years where it goes negative for a time, but the only ones since 1970 that I see with -PDO/+ENSO for the majority of the time are 94/95 and 72/73. So of those, 94/95 is probably the most comparable. 


BS Atmospheric Science University of Utah May 2015

PhD Candidate Atmospheric Sciences

 

--Emphasis on: Forecasting, Mountain Weather, Numerical Weather Prediction, Data Assimilation

 

Winter 2017/2018

Dec 4: 3.2", 16: 0.9", 20: 2.1", 23: 1.5", 25: 4.6"

Jan 6: 1.5", 20: 10.8", 25: 1.5"

Feb 19: 8.6", 20: 2.4", 23: 7.1", 25: .5"

Mar 4: 13", 15: 1.8", 17: 5.3", 25: 4.2"

April 12: 1", 17: 1.3"

Total: 69.3"

 

 

Winter 2016/17 Snow:
Nov 17: 3.2", 23: 1.6", 28: 9.2" (14)

Dec 1: .5", 16: 2.5", 25: 13" (16)

Jan 2: 5", 3: 2.4", 4: 7.7", 12: 1", 19: 1.2", 21: 13", 23: 6", 24: 1", 25: 3.7", 26: 2.5" (43.5) 

Feb 11: .5", 23: 6.5", 27: 4.5" (13.5)

Mar 5: 5.5" (5.5)

Apr 8: 2", 9: 1.8" (3.8)

May 17: 1" (1)
Total: 96.3"

Lowest Temp: 2F


#26
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted Today, 12:31 PM

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Looking at the PDO/ENSO there are a few years where it goes negative for a time, but the only ones since 1970 that I see with -PDO/+ENSO for the majority of the time are 94/95 and 72/73. So of those, 94/95 is probably the most comparable.


Good analogs for the valley.

Monmouth, Oregon Winter 17-18 Stats:

 

Coldest high: 34 (Dec 24)

Coldest low: 22 (Dec 11 & Feb 23)

Total snowfall: 1"

Last snowfall: February 21-22, 2018

Last accumulating snowfall on roads: March 6, 2017

Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)

Last White Christmas: 2008

 

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope


#27
Phil

Posted Today, 12:36 PM

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Looking at the PDO/ENSO there are a few years where it goes negative for a time, but the only ones since 1970 that I see with -PDO/+ENSO for the majority of the time are 94/95 and 72/73. So of those, 94/95 is probably the most comparable.


Well, the PDO signal will probably be close to neutral/irrelevant. This also is unlikely to be an official niño year, even with more frequent dateline forcing. I’d hedge towards neutral or modest +ENSO/-AMO years with low solar as a bonus.

The deep -PDO/-PNA era years will probably not work well as analogs this winter, in my opinion.
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Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#28
Black Hole

Posted Today, 12:50 PM

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Well, the PDO signal will probably be close to neutral/irrelevant. This also is unlikely to be an official niño year, even with more frequent dateline forcing. I’d hedge towards neutral or modest +ENSO/-AMO years with low solar as a bonus.

The deep -PDO/-PNA era years will probably not work well as analogs this winter, in my opinion.

What makes you say the PDO will do that? The rest, I agree with. I don't even necessarily disagree on the PDO, but its certainly been trending down this year in general. 


BS Atmospheric Science University of Utah May 2015

PhD Candidate Atmospheric Sciences

 

--Emphasis on: Forecasting, Mountain Weather, Numerical Weather Prediction, Data Assimilation

 

Winter 2017/2018

Dec 4: 3.2", 16: 0.9", 20: 2.1", 23: 1.5", 25: 4.6"

Jan 6: 1.5", 20: 10.8", 25: 1.5"

Feb 19: 8.6", 20: 2.4", 23: 7.1", 25: .5"

Mar 4: 13", 15: 1.8", 17: 5.3", 25: 4.2"

April 12: 1", 17: 1.3"

Total: 69.3"

 

 

Winter 2016/17 Snow:
Nov 17: 3.2", 23: 1.6", 28: 9.2" (14)

Dec 1: .5", 16: 2.5", 25: 13" (16)

Jan 2: 5", 3: 2.4", 4: 7.7", 12: 1", 19: 1.2", 21: 13", 23: 6", 24: 1", 25: 3.7", 26: 2.5" (43.5) 

Feb 11: .5", 23: 6.5", 27: 4.5" (13.5)

Mar 5: 5.5" (5.5)

Apr 8: 2", 9: 1.8" (3.8)

May 17: 1" (1)
Total: 96.3"

Lowest Temp: 2F


#29
Front Ranger

Posted Today, 01:09 PM

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Yeah, no signs that ENSO/PDO state will be a major player this winter.

QBO and solar will probably be the two biggest factors I look at.
  • Phil likes this

Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#30
Phil

Posted Today, 01:11 PM

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What makes you say the PDO will do that? The rest, I agree with. I don't even necessarily disagree on the PDO, but its certainly been trending down this year in general.


Well, generally speaking, dateline exhaust/+ENSO boundary conditions (even if modest) aren’t conducive to the establishment of a -PDO. You generally see +PNA conditions from midwinter onwards in such cases as this when the PMM/Pacific ITCZ is biased positive/northward from a lower frequency standpoint.

Usually, -PNA/-PDO years are preceded by warming in the eastern IO/NATL, and/or a westward retraction of the IPWP engine more generally. We have the opposite ongoing right now, with a cooler E-IO/westward-displaced IPWP with a heavy meridional component. Not favorable for the development of a -PDO, in my opinion.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#31
Phil

Posted Today, 01:17 PM

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That could/should change in the early 2020s, though, after the next El Niño (probably in 2019/20). The solar preconditioning for the next westward shift in the IPWP and NAM/NAO tank is developing now, and will culminate in a strong multiyear niña/-PDO episode in the early 2020s when solar starts increasing again.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#32
Front Ranger

Posted Today, 01:18 PM

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Well, generally speaking, dateline exhaust/+ENSO boundary conditions (even if modest) aren’t conducive to the establishment of a -PDO. You generally see +PNA conditions from midwinter onwards in such cases as this when the PMM/Pacific ITCZ is biased positive/northward from a lower frequency standpoint.

Usually, -PNA/-PDO years are preceded by warming in the eastern IO/NATL, and/or a westward retraction of the IPWP engine more generally. We have the opposite ongoing right now, with a cooler E-IO/westward-displaced IPWP with a heavy meridional component. Not favorable for the development of a -PDO, in my opinion.


I could definitely see this winter ending up technically -PDO/-PNA by the numbers, but it's clear we aren't in that dominant system state yet, and probably won't be this winter.

Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#33
Phil

Posted Today, 01:20 PM

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Yeah, no signs that ENSO/PDO state will be a major player this winter.

QBO and solar will probably be the two biggest factors I look at.


Lots of model-ologists on twitter are pimping the crap out of this moderate-strong modoki niño/+PDO idea. Not going to name anybody, but it’s bad. The maps are getting sexier every year too, so it’s more encapsulating to the masses as well.

I still think it’s going to bust hard.
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Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#34
Phil

Posted Today, 01:23 PM

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I could definitely see this winter ending up technically -PDO/-PNA by the numbers, but it's clear we aren't in that dominant system state yet, and probably won't be this winter.


Yeah, could come down to whether November/December can go -PNA enough (assuming they do) to outweigh what could be a more +PNA tendency that develops later in the winter.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#35
Black Hole

Posted Today, 01:36 PM

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Yeah, could come down to whether November/December can go -PNA enough (assuming they do) to outweigh what could be a more +PNA tendency that develops later in the winter.

That sounds reasonable. I think I would agree with this. 


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BS Atmospheric Science University of Utah May 2015

PhD Candidate Atmospheric Sciences

 

--Emphasis on: Forecasting, Mountain Weather, Numerical Weather Prediction, Data Assimilation

 

Winter 2017/2018

Dec 4: 3.2", 16: 0.9", 20: 2.1", 23: 1.5", 25: 4.6"

Jan 6: 1.5", 20: 10.8", 25: 1.5"

Feb 19: 8.6", 20: 2.4", 23: 7.1", 25: .5"

Mar 4: 13", 15: 1.8", 17: 5.3", 25: 4.2"

April 12: 1", 17: 1.3"

Total: 69.3"

 

 

Winter 2016/17 Snow:
Nov 17: 3.2", 23: 1.6", 28: 9.2" (14)

Dec 1: .5", 16: 2.5", 25: 13" (16)

Jan 2: 5", 3: 2.4", 4: 7.7", 12: 1", 19: 1.2", 21: 13", 23: 6", 24: 1", 25: 3.7", 26: 2.5" (43.5) 

Feb 11: .5", 23: 6.5", 27: 4.5" (13.5)

Mar 5: 5.5" (5.5)

Apr 8: 2", 9: 1.8" (3.8)

May 17: 1" (1)
Total: 96.3"

Lowest Temp: 2F


#36
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted Today, 02:38 PM

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Yeah, could come down to whether November/December can go -PNA enough (assuming they do) to outweigh what could be a more +PNA tendency that develops later in the winter.


So a frontloaded winter then?

Monmouth, Oregon Winter 17-18 Stats:

 

Coldest high: 34 (Dec 24)

Coldest low: 22 (Dec 11 & Feb 23)

Total snowfall: 1"

Last snowfall: February 21-22, 2018

Last accumulating snowfall on roads: March 6, 2017

Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)

Last White Christmas: 2008

 

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