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Lets talk winter 2018/2019

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#51
Front Ranger

Posted 17 August 2018 - 08:41 PM

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Nobody claimed otherwise, as far as I can tell.


True, not in this thread. It was a preemptive statement, based on previous discussions.

Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#52
Jesse

Posted 17 August 2018 - 09:58 PM

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True, not in this thread. It was a preemptive statement, based on previous discussions.


Nice.

#53
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 19 August 2018 - 10:34 AM

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Analogs

 

2014-15

2002-03

1991-92


Snowfall

2018-19: 0.1"

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#54
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 19 August 2018 - 10:56 AM

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Analogs

2014-15
2002-03
1991-92


Yuck.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 18-19 Stats:

Coldest high: 37 (Dec 7)
Coldest low: 22 (Dec 6 & 7)

Days with below freezing temps: 13
Total snowfall: 0"
Last accumulating snowfall: February 21-22, 2018
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 1990

Personal Stats:

Last accumulating snowfall: March 6, 2017
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 2008

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope


#55
Black Hole

Posted 19 August 2018 - 11:09 AM

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Yuck.

I don't think a winter like those is in the cards. 


BS Atmospheric Science University of Utah May 2015

PhD Candidate Atmospheric Sciences

 

--Emphasis on: Forecasting, Mountain Weather, Numerical Weather Prediction, Data Assimilation

 

Winter 2018/2019

Nov 24: 3.3", 30: 1" (4.3"); Dec 2: 4.6", 3: .8", 5: .3", 12: 2.3" (8.0")

Total: 12.3"

 

Winter 2017/2018

Dec 4: 3.2", 16: 0.9", 20: 2.1", 23: 1.5", 25: 4.6" (12.3") ::: Jan 6: 1.5", 20: 10.8", 25: 1.5" (13.8") ::: Feb 19: 8.6", 20: 2.4", 23: 7.1", 25: .5" (18.6") ::: Mar 4: 13", 15: 1.8", 17: 5.3", 25: 4.2" (24.3") ::: April 12: 1", 17: 1.3" (2.3")

Total: 69.3"

 

Winter 2016/17 Snow:
Nov 17: 3.2", 23: 1.6", 28: 9.2" (14) ::: Dec 1: .5", 16: 2.5", 25: 13" (16) ::: Jan 2: 5", 3: 2.4", 4: 7.7", 12: 1", 19: 1.2", 21: 13", 23: 6", 24: 1", 25: 3.7", 26: 2.5" (43.5)  ::: Feb 11: .5", 23: 6.5", 27: 4.5" (13.5) ::: Mar 5: 5.5" (5.5) ::: Apr 8: 2", 9: 1.8" (3.8) ::: May 17: 1" (1)

Total: 96.3"


#56
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 19 August 2018 - 12:36 PM

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I don't think a winter like those is in the cards.


Literally the 3 worst since I moved here in 1989. 02-03 never dropped below 534dm thicknesses. Was such a buzzkill my senior year of HS. Then I missed the snow the following year going to the Sun Bowl with the Ducks and we had the ice storm in Eugene on Jan 1 '04 with temps like 21F. Didn't think that was possible. Basically was Feb of 95-Dec 08 between significant PNW snow events for me.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 18-19 Stats:

Coldest high: 37 (Dec 7)
Coldest low: 22 (Dec 6 & 7)

Days with below freezing temps: 13
Total snowfall: 0"
Last accumulating snowfall: February 21-22, 2018
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 1990

Personal Stats:

Last accumulating snowfall: March 6, 2017
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 2008

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope


#57
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 19 August 2018 - 08:24 PM

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Literally the 3 worst since I moved here in 1989. 02-03 never dropped below 534dm thicknesses. Was such a buzzkill my senior year of HS. Then I missed the snow the following year going to the Sun Bowl with the Ducks and we had the ice storm in Eugene on Jan 1 '04 with temps like 21F. Didn't think that was possible. Basically was Feb of 95-Dec 08 between significant PNW snow events for me.

 

I was kind of joking. Don't forget 2004-05. That was a huge dud too..


Snowfall

2018-19: 0.1"

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#58
TT-SEA

Posted 19 August 2018 - 08:38 PM

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I was kind of joking. Don't forget 2004-05. That was a huge dud too..

 

I remember a really wet troughy period in late August of 2004... we had over 5 inches of rain in a week.  



#59
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 19 August 2018 - 08:55 PM

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I remember a really wet troughy period in late August of 2004... we had over 5 inches of rain in a week.  

 

Yes, I was camping over in S. Central Oregon that weekend and there was quite a bit of rain even over there on the dry side. Probably at least 1-2". Wiped out fire season, I remember my friend getting married at Silver Falls about a month later and it was very cool/wet and fall like in the middle of September. Was a pretty mild winter though, hardly any winter to speak of in the Willamette valley save one very brief cold snap in January. Whatcom County did well though.

 

Summer 2002 was hot and dry though with the infamous Biscuit Fire in SW Oregon. Dry weather lasted all the way through October that year. 


Snowfall

2018-19: 0.1"

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#60
ShawniganLake

Posted 19 August 2018 - 10:51 PM

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Yes, I was camping over in S. Central Oregon that weekend and there was quite a bit of rain even over there on the dry side. Probably at least 1-2". Wiped out fire season, I remember my friend getting married at Silver Falls about a month later and it was very cool/wet and fall like in the middle of September. Was a pretty mild winter though, hardly any winter to speak of in the Willamette valley save one very brief cold snap in January. Whatcom County did well though.

Summer 2002 was hot and dry though with the infamous Biscuit Fire in SW Oregon. Dry weather lasted all the way through October that year.

January 2005 had a record breaking snowstorm here. Pretty much screwed everyone else of course.

#61
Brennan

Posted 30 August 2018 - 03:54 AM

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January 2005 had a record breaking snowstorm here. Pretty much screwed everyone else of course.

That's what it takes for us North Sound folks to get REKKED by snow... everyone else to be screwed... A low hanging off the coast of Vancouver Island, stationary... Happened in early February 2017 as well..


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#62
Front Ranger

Posted 30 August 2018 - 07:42 AM

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That's what it takes for us North Sound folks to get REKKED by snow... everyone else to be screwed... A low hanging off the coast of Vancouver Island, stationary... Happened in early February 2017 as well..

 

Another sign that winter is approaching...the return of Brennan. Welcome back!


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Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#63
ShawniganLake

Posted 02 September 2018 - 07:51 PM

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I see Joe bastardi is going for your standard PNW blowtorch this winter. +5F. Enjoy.

#64
Bryant

Posted 02 September 2018 - 07:58 PM

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That's what it takes for us North Sound folks to get REKKED by snow... everyone else to be screwed... A low hanging off the coast of Vancouver Island, stationary... Happened in early February 2017 as well..


Love me some stationary Vancouver Island lows

#65
BLI snowman

Posted 03 September 2018 - 12:15 PM

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I see Joe bastardi is going for your standard PNW blowtorch this winter. +5F. Enjoy.

 

I'd actually be kind of curious, I bet he has forecasts archived online back to the early 2000s.

 

Has he ever once predicted warmth in the Northeast? 


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#66
Black Hole

Posted 03 September 2018 - 05:01 PM

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I'd actually be kind of curious, I bet he has forecasts archived online back to the early 2000s.

Has he ever once predicted warmth in the Northeast?


I've wondered this too. Curious if anybody knows.

BS Atmospheric Science University of Utah May 2015

PhD Candidate Atmospheric Sciences

 

--Emphasis on: Forecasting, Mountain Weather, Numerical Weather Prediction, Data Assimilation

 

Winter 2018/2019

Nov 24: 3.3", 30: 1" (4.3"); Dec 2: 4.6", 3: .8", 5: .3", 12: 2.3" (8.0")

Total: 12.3"

 

Winter 2017/2018

Dec 4: 3.2", 16: 0.9", 20: 2.1", 23: 1.5", 25: 4.6" (12.3") ::: Jan 6: 1.5", 20: 10.8", 25: 1.5" (13.8") ::: Feb 19: 8.6", 20: 2.4", 23: 7.1", 25: .5" (18.6") ::: Mar 4: 13", 15: 1.8", 17: 5.3", 25: 4.2" (24.3") ::: April 12: 1", 17: 1.3" (2.3")

Total: 69.3"

 

Winter 2016/17 Snow:
Nov 17: 3.2", 23: 1.6", 28: 9.2" (14) ::: Dec 1: .5", 16: 2.5", 25: 13" (16) ::: Jan 2: 5", 3: 2.4", 4: 7.7", 12: 1", 19: 1.2", 21: 13", 23: 6", 24: 1", 25: 3.7", 26: 2.5" (43.5)  ::: Feb 11: .5", 23: 6.5", 27: 4.5" (13.5) ::: Mar 5: 5.5" (5.5) ::: Apr 8: 2", 9: 1.8" (3.8) ::: May 17: 1" (1)

Total: 96.3"


#67
hcr32

Posted 03 September 2018 - 05:16 PM

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I see Joe bastardi is going for your standard PNW blowtorch this winter. +5F. Enjoy.

 

And let me guess, -5F over the northeast with endless cold and snow? Weird, he never does that.


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#68
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 03 September 2018 - 05:29 PM

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I see Joe bastardi is going for your standard PNW blowtorch this winter. +5F. Enjoy.


I like Joe Bastardi, I've learned a lot from him and I love that he isn't afraid to make big time calls and predictions. He is though biased in some of his predictions. He almost always has a warm bias for the PNW and a cold bias for the East Coast. It's not surprising though because that's where he lives.

Also, they predicted a warm winter for the PNW in 16/17 and they busted. Every month was below average for both SEA and PDX.

SEA: -2.6/-4.1/-2.1 = -2.9
PDX: -3.2/-7.9/-3.0 = -4.7

December_February_2016_17_update.png
2epr8zr.jpg

#69
ShawniganLake

Posted 03 September 2018 - 07:27 PM

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I like Joe Bastardi, I've learned a lot from him and I love that he isn't afraid to make big time calls and predictions. He is though biased in some of his predictions. He almost always has a warm bias for the PNW and a cold bias for the East Coast. It's not surprising though because that's where he lives.

Also, they predicted a warm winter for the PNW in 16/17 and they busted. Every month was below average for both SEA and PDX.

SEA: -2.6/-4.1/-2.1 = -2.9
PDX: -3.2/-7.9/-3.0 = -4.7

December_February_2016_17_update.png
2epr8zr.jpg

I’m not so sure if he’s simply biased towards the east because that’s where he lives. Seems more probable that he’s trying to suck east coast snow lovers into subscribing to his website. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that he almost always has some of the big east coast markets covered with promises of cold and snow.
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#70
Phil

Posted 03 September 2018 - 07:33 PM

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:lol:

RKbGx06.jpg
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Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...pwsdash#history

#71
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 03 September 2018 - 08:59 PM

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:lol:

RKbGx06.jpg


Southerly flow

Springfield, Oregon cold season 18-19 Stats:

Coldest high: 37 (Dec 7)
Coldest low: 22 (Dec 6 & 7)

Days with below freezing temps: 13
Total snowfall: 0"
Last accumulating snowfall: February 21-22, 2018
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 1990

Personal Stats:

Last accumulating snowfall: March 6, 2017
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 2008

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope


#72
Brian_in_Leavenworth

Posted 04 September 2018 - 07:17 AM

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I'd actually be kind of curious, I bet he has forecasts archived online back to the early 2000s.

 

Has he ever once predicted warmth in the Northeast? 

I don't know for sure, but I think she is talking about him in these tweets:

 

  1. default_profile_bigger.png Becky @BeccaLynch4 Aug 29
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  1. “La Niña, Neutral and El Niño have very different effects on east coast winters”. Really??That’s interesting, because I went back over every one of your winter forecasts since 2010 and you have predicted a cold and snowy winter every single year for the last 8 in a row now
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default_profile_bigger.pngBecky @BeccaLynch4Aug 29
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Apparently in your world they really don’t have different effects on winter because no matter the ENSO state your conclusion is always the same, year after year...cold and snowy for the east coast

11:17 AM - 29 Aug 2018
 
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      default_profile_bigger.pngAnthony Alexion @adalexion1 Aug 29
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      Replying to @BeccaLynch4

      Ah...but you see....they are vastly different, bcs they bring different *types* of cold and snowy winters...not all cold and snowy winters are alike, you see....;-)

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#73
Phil

Posted 04 September 2018 - 08:11 AM

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I was curious, so I looked back.

JB has indeed forecasted cold/snowy eastern winters for 10 out of the last 12 years, and since he moved to WeatherBell, he’s forecasted cold eastern winters every single year.:lol: Those two warmer forecasts were when he was back at accuweather (2007/08, 2010/11).

He’s either losing his mind, or he’s trying to sucker naive eastern snow weenies into buying subscriptions. Back in his earlier days at accuweather (before all this online subscription/social media madness) he was much more balanced, with little if any discernible bias. I think now that his success depends on a high number of online subscribers and fanfare, he needs to hype cold/snow to compete with other vendors. The timing matches perfectly.
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#74
Black Hole

Posted 04 September 2018 - 09:05 AM

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Sooner or later people will catch on to JB, but then again people still buy the Farmers Almanac too :P

I agree with those who have said he is just doing it for clicks to generate revenue. Still, 8 years in a row and 10/12 is something else. 


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BS Atmospheric Science University of Utah May 2015

PhD Candidate Atmospheric Sciences

 

--Emphasis on: Forecasting, Mountain Weather, Numerical Weather Prediction, Data Assimilation

 

Winter 2018/2019

Nov 24: 3.3", 30: 1" (4.3"); Dec 2: 4.6", 3: .8", 5: .3", 12: 2.3" (8.0")

Total: 12.3"

 

Winter 2017/2018

Dec 4: 3.2", 16: 0.9", 20: 2.1", 23: 1.5", 25: 4.6" (12.3") ::: Jan 6: 1.5", 20: 10.8", 25: 1.5" (13.8") ::: Feb 19: 8.6", 20: 2.4", 23: 7.1", 25: .5" (18.6") ::: Mar 4: 13", 15: 1.8", 17: 5.3", 25: 4.2" (24.3") ::: April 12: 1", 17: 1.3" (2.3")

Total: 69.3"

 

Winter 2016/17 Snow:
Nov 17: 3.2", 23: 1.6", 28: 9.2" (14) ::: Dec 1: .5", 16: 2.5", 25: 13" (16) ::: Jan 2: 5", 3: 2.4", 4: 7.7", 12: 1", 19: 1.2", 21: 13", 23: 6", 24: 1", 25: 3.7", 26: 2.5" (43.5)  ::: Feb 11: .5", 23: 6.5", 27: 4.5" (13.5) ::: Mar 5: 5.5" (5.5) ::: Apr 8: 2", 9: 1.8" (3.8) ::: May 17: 1" (1)

Total: 96.3"


#75
Black Hole

Posted 04 September 2018 - 09:17 AM

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Looking at the latest we still have a neutral to slighly negative PDO look. Sea surface temperature anomalies have dipped a little bit and are near neutral over most of the ENSO regions. It appears that a downwelling kelvin wave will increase temperatures over the next month. 

Any other thoughts?
Also, anybody have the link to that image that shows the predicted wind anomalies in the ENSO regions (in terms of westerly or easterly anomalies)?


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BS Atmospheric Science University of Utah May 2015

PhD Candidate Atmospheric Sciences

 

--Emphasis on: Forecasting, Mountain Weather, Numerical Weather Prediction, Data Assimilation

 

Winter 2018/2019

Nov 24: 3.3", 30: 1" (4.3"); Dec 2: 4.6", 3: .8", 5: .3", 12: 2.3" (8.0")

Total: 12.3"

 

Winter 2017/2018

Dec 4: 3.2", 16: 0.9", 20: 2.1", 23: 1.5", 25: 4.6" (12.3") ::: Jan 6: 1.5", 20: 10.8", 25: 1.5" (13.8") ::: Feb 19: 8.6", 20: 2.4", 23: 7.1", 25: .5" (18.6") ::: Mar 4: 13", 15: 1.8", 17: 5.3", 25: 4.2" (24.3") ::: April 12: 1", 17: 1.3" (2.3")

Total: 69.3"

 

Winter 2016/17 Snow:
Nov 17: 3.2", 23: 1.6", 28: 9.2" (14) ::: Dec 1: .5", 16: 2.5", 25: 13" (16) ::: Jan 2: 5", 3: 2.4", 4: 7.7", 12: 1", 19: 1.2", 21: 13", 23: 6", 24: 1", 25: 3.7", 26: 2.5" (43.5)  ::: Feb 11: .5", 23: 6.5", 27: 4.5" (13.5) ::: Mar 5: 5.5" (5.5) ::: Apr 8: 2", 9: 1.8" (3.8) ::: May 17: 1" (1)

Total: 96.3"


#76
Phil

Posted 04 September 2018 - 09:36 AM

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Looking at the latest we still have a neutral to slighly negative PDO look. Sea surface temperature anomalies have dipped a little bit and are near neutral over most of the ENSO regions. It appears that a downwelling kelvin wave will increase temperatures over the next month.

Any other thoughts?
Also, anybody have the link to that image that shows the predicted wind anomalies in the ENSO regions (in terms of westerly or easterly anomalies)?


The PDO looks dormant/irrelevant to me this year, to be honest. As a forcing mechanism, its importance is questionable even in its strongest phases. I personally see more of a +PMM look with the broad Pacific ITCZ and expanded NH flank of the IPWP in conjunction with the South Pacific cold tongue.

I think the themes this autumn/early winter are increased potency of dateline forcing, -QBO at/below 50mb (with the +QBO/westerly shear downwelling from 30mb) a much colder Atlantic/AMO, and the onset of solar minimum. An interesting combo for sure, which could open the door to a frontloaded winter in the West.

The system state may resemble a weak west-based +ENSO event this winter, even if the SSTAs doesn’t meet the official criteria for an El Niño. My suspicion is that the official ONI criteria for El Niño will not be met until sometime in early 2019 (possibly in the J/F/M timeframe).
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...pwsdash#history

#77
Black Hole

Posted 04 September 2018 - 10:13 AM

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The PDO looks dormant/irrelevant to me this year, to be honest. As a forcing mechanism, its importance is questionable even in its strongest phases. I personally see more of a +PMM look with the broad Pacific ITCZ and expanded NH flank of the IPWP in conjunction with the South Pacific cold tongue.

I think the themes this autumn/early winter are increased potency of dateline forcing, -QBO at/below 50mb (with the +QBO/westerly shear downwelling from 30mb) a much colder Atlantic/AMO, and the onset of solar minimum. An interesting combo for sure, which could open the door to a frontloaded winter in the West.

The system state may resemble a weak west-based +ENSO event this winter, even if the SSTAs doesn’t meet the official criteria for an El Niño. My suspicion is that the official ONI criteria for El Niño will not be met until sometime in early 2019 (possibly in the J/F/M timeframe).

My point in highlighting it is to say that at least from a PDO perspective this isn't going to be like the blob years or anything. Those days are done. 

Anyway, definitely looks to be a west focused event, whether it reaches official criteria or not. Typically those kinds of winters are less good for the west but many are front-loaded, so I agree with you there too. 


BS Atmospheric Science University of Utah May 2015

PhD Candidate Atmospheric Sciences

 

--Emphasis on: Forecasting, Mountain Weather, Numerical Weather Prediction, Data Assimilation

 

Winter 2018/2019

Nov 24: 3.3", 30: 1" (4.3"); Dec 2: 4.6", 3: .8", 5: .3", 12: 2.3" (8.0")

Total: 12.3"

 

Winter 2017/2018

Dec 4: 3.2", 16: 0.9", 20: 2.1", 23: 1.5", 25: 4.6" (12.3") ::: Jan 6: 1.5", 20: 10.8", 25: 1.5" (13.8") ::: Feb 19: 8.6", 20: 2.4", 23: 7.1", 25: .5" (18.6") ::: Mar 4: 13", 15: 1.8", 17: 5.3", 25: 4.2" (24.3") ::: April 12: 1", 17: 1.3" (2.3")

Total: 69.3"

 

Winter 2016/17 Snow:
Nov 17: 3.2", 23: 1.6", 28: 9.2" (14) ::: Dec 1: .5", 16: 2.5", 25: 13" (16) ::: Jan 2: 5", 3: 2.4", 4: 7.7", 12: 1", 19: 1.2", 21: 13", 23: 6", 24: 1", 25: 3.7", 26: 2.5" (43.5)  ::: Feb 11: .5", 23: 6.5", 27: 4.5" (13.5) ::: Mar 5: 5.5" (5.5) ::: Apr 8: 2", 9: 1.8" (3.8) ::: May 17: 1" (1)

Total: 96.3"


#78
Phil

Posted 04 September 2018 - 04:51 PM

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My point in highlighting it is to say that at least from a PDO perspective this isn't going to be like the blob years or anything. Those days are done.

Anyway, definitely looks to be a west focused event, whether it reaches official criteria or not. Typically those kinds of winters are less good for the west but many are front-loaded, so I agree with you there too.


Yeah, no warm SST “blob” this year, but even if there was a blob, I’m not sure it would matter. In my opinion, it was mostly a result of the pattern, rather than a forcing. Those cold extratropical waters don’t influence the atmosphere in the same way the tropical waters do.
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#79
Black Hole

Posted 05 September 2018 - 06:10 AM

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Yeah, no warm SST “blob” this year, but even if there was a blob, I’m not sure it would matter. In my opinion, it was mostly a result of the pattern, rather than a forcing. Those cold extratropical waters don’t influence the atmosphere in the same way the tropical waters do.

While I agree that the extent was probably overplayed by many and the atmosphere dominated, there was research that suggested that the blob was somewhat of a self-sustaining feature. So in that sense I don't think it was purely a result of atmospheric forcing and once it developed it helped itself. 


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BS Atmospheric Science University of Utah May 2015

PhD Candidate Atmospheric Sciences

 

--Emphasis on: Forecasting, Mountain Weather, Numerical Weather Prediction, Data Assimilation

 

Winter 2018/2019

Nov 24: 3.3", 30: 1" (4.3"); Dec 2: 4.6", 3: .8", 5: .3", 12: 2.3" (8.0")

Total: 12.3"

 

Winter 2017/2018

Dec 4: 3.2", 16: 0.9", 20: 2.1", 23: 1.5", 25: 4.6" (12.3") ::: Jan 6: 1.5", 20: 10.8", 25: 1.5" (13.8") ::: Feb 19: 8.6", 20: 2.4", 23: 7.1", 25: .5" (18.6") ::: Mar 4: 13", 15: 1.8", 17: 5.3", 25: 4.2" (24.3") ::: April 12: 1", 17: 1.3" (2.3")

Total: 69.3"

 

Winter 2016/17 Snow:
Nov 17: 3.2", 23: 1.6", 28: 9.2" (14) ::: Dec 1: .5", 16: 2.5", 25: 13" (16) ::: Jan 2: 5", 3: 2.4", 4: 7.7", 12: 1", 19: 1.2", 21: 13", 23: 6", 24: 1", 25: 3.7", 26: 2.5" (43.5)  ::: Feb 11: .5", 23: 6.5", 27: 4.5" (13.5) ::: Mar 5: 5.5" (5.5) ::: Apr 8: 2", 9: 1.8" (3.8) ::: May 17: 1" (1)

Total: 96.3"


#80
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 05 September 2018 - 07:03 AM

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I’m not so sure if he’s simply biased towards the east because that’s where he lives. Seems more probable that he’s trying to suck east coast snow lovers into subscribing to his website. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that he almost always has some of the big east coast markets covered with promises of cold and snow.


Yeah, that's probably the reason why. He's also a good salesman. I subscribed to a weather bell free trial a couple years ago but never renewed it. Now we have free Euro data on weather.us that we can access.

#81
Brian_in_Leavenworth

Posted 05 September 2018 - 07:10 AM

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Looking at the latest we still have a neutral to slighly negative PDO look. Sea surface temperature anomalies have dipped a little bit and are near neutral over most of the ENSO regions. It appears that a downwelling kelvin wave will increase temperatures over the next month. 

Any other thoughts?
Also, anybody have the link to that image that shows the predicted wind anomalies in the ENSO regions (in terms of westerly or easterly anomalies)?

I get it from Dr. Ventrice here:

 

http://mikeventrice....hovmollers.html


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#82
Brennan

Posted 05 September 2018 - 09:04 PM

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Another sign that winter is approaching...the return of Brennan. Welcome back!

 

It's always good to be back! it seems my offseason from here are getting longer and longer though... Family and kids will do that to you... Unless your Tim of course and have several clones walking around. 



#83
Dan the Weatherman

Posted 06 September 2018 - 10:40 PM

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My point in highlighting it is to say that at least from a PDO perspective this isn't going to be like the blob years or anything. Those days are done. 

Anyway, definitely looks to be a west focused event, whether it reaches official criteria or not. Typically those kinds of winters are less good for the west but many are front-loaded, so I agree with you there too. 

 

I am really hoping Socal gets a good amount of rain this year after being so ridiculously dry last year with Los Angeles having its 3rd driest winter on record (July 1 - June 30).



#84
OKwx2k4

Posted 08 September 2018 - 01:34 AM

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While I agree that the extent was probably overplayed by many and the atmosphere dominated, there was research that suggested that the blob was somewhat of a self-sustaining feature. So in that sense I don't think it was purely a result of atmospheric forcing and once it developed it helped itself.


I've long been of this school of thought. Been far too much evidence presented to me to think differently.

#85
OKwx2k4

Posted 08 September 2018 - 01:38 AM

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With the exception of 2016 and maybe 2012 though, in JBs defense, has not the EC been the coldest and snowiest area in the US in late winter for well over the last decade?

#86
BLI snowman

Posted 08 September 2018 - 03:12 PM

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With the exception of 2016 and maybe 2012 though, in JBs defense, has not the EC been the coldest and snowiest area in the US in late winter for well over the last decade?

 

The last time the EC as a whole generally had the coldest winter anomalies was probably in 2010-11, with 2014-15 having the coldest anomalies across the northeastern quadrant of the country. The last few have been mild overall though.



#87
OKwx2k4

Posted 08 September 2018 - 11:25 PM

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The last time the EC as a whole generally had the coldest winter anomalies was probably in 2010-11, with 2014-15 having the coldest anomalies across the northeastern quadrant of the country. The last few have been mild overall though.


That's right. I do remember getting aggravated over him selling a cold January or February over the EC as his proof that he was right when the seasonal maps he made weren't even close. There were several of those years after 2010 if I recall. I stand corrected.

#88
snow_wizard

Posted 09 September 2018 - 10:48 AM

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At this point I'm going for a cold Oct through early Jan for the NW.  I don't have any kind of a read after that yet.  An early season cold wave or two looks like a very good bet to me.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2018-19 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 26

Lows 32 or below = 13

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 


#89
Brian_in_Leavenworth

Posted 09 September 2018 - 11:06 AM

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Referring to the El Nino topic, Klaus Wolter thinks that an El Nino remains unlikely this year:

 

"  "Compared to last month, the updated (July-August) MEI remained flat at +0.13, ending up right in the middle of ENSO-neutral rankings. This means that not a single season has reached El Niño conditions in 2018. Looking at the nearest 12 rankings (+6/-6) in this season, and excluding all cases that departed by more than 0.4 standard deviations in the changes from the previous month as well as three months earlier (April-May), there are eight analogues to the situation this season: 1953,'59,'69,'80,'81,'90,'00, and '03. Six of these cases remained ENSO-neutral, while only one ('69) briefly reached El Niño conditions, and one slipped back into La Niña'00). This confirms last month's assessment that El Niño remains "very unlikely" in 2018"

 

"With the MEI showing ENSO-neutral conditions, four key anomalies in the MEI component fields flag La Niña, compared to only one for El Niño. Key anomalies refer to values in excess of one standard deviation, or one sigma in support of either ENSO phase (compare to loadings figure).

Significant positive anomalies (coinciding with high negative loadings) denote high sea level pressure (P) anomalies over the eastern equatorial Pacific, southerly wind anomalies (V) to the north of the Equator and south of Hawai'i, and unusually warm temperatures (S and A) northeast of Australia. All of these anomalies are indicators of La Niña.

On the other hand, westerly wind anomalies (U) along and north of the Equator from the Maritime Continent to the dateline flag emerging El Niño conditions."



#90
Phil

Posted 09 September 2018 - 12:19 PM

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At this point I'm going for a cold Oct through early Jan for the NW. I don't have any kind of a read after that yet. An early season cold wave or two looks like a very good bet to me.


Do you mean cold each month from Oct-Jan? Or just overall when averaging them together?

I suspect the latter is more doable than the former. But this is one of those funky years that could flip around completely upon the seasonal termination of EHEM monsoonal forcing in November.
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#91
Phil

Posted 09 September 2018 - 12:21 PM

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Referring to the El Nino topic, Klaus Wolter thinks that an El Nino remains unlikely this year:

"

"

Compared to last month, the updated (July-August) MEI remained flat at +0.13, ending up right in the middle of ENSO-neutral

rankings

. This means that not a single season has reached El Niño conditions in 2018. Looking at the nearest 12 rankings (+6/-6) in this season, and excluding all cases that departed by more than 0.4 standard deviations in the changes from the previous month as well as three months earlier (April-May), there are eight analogues to the situation this season: 1953,'59,'69,'80,'81,'90,'00, and '03. Six of these cases remained ENSO-neutral, while only one ('69) briefly reached El Niño conditions, and one slipped back into La Niña'00). This confirms last month's assessment that El Niño remains "very unlikely" in 2018"



"With the MEI showing ENSO-neutral conditions, four key anomalies in the MEI component fields flag La Niña, compared to only one for El Niño. Key anomalies refer to values in excess of one standard deviation, or one sigma in support of either ENSO phase (compare to loadings figure).


Significant positive anomalies (coinciding with high negative loadings) denote high sea level pressure (P) anomalies over the eastern equatorial Pacific, southerly wind anomalies (V) to the north of the Equator and south of Hawai'i, and unusually warm temperatures (S and A) northeast of Australia. All of these anomalies are indicators of La Niña.


On the other hand, westerly wind anomalies (U) along and north of the Equator from the Maritime Continent to the dateline flag emerging El Niño conditions."


Funny that all of those years occurred near solar maximum. The only good QBO analog there is 2003, and FWIW, that year also had hurricane Isabel, which is somewhat analogous to Florence.
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#92
Geos

Posted 09 September 2018 - 01:46 PM

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NE Pacific has been cooling off a bit in the last week.

 

cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png

 

cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft

2018 moisture: 38.63", 12/13
Lowest Temp of Winter 2018: 27°, 12/7

 

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 0.00"2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam: http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2
https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#93
snow_wizard

Posted 09 September 2018 - 08:16 PM

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Do you mean cold each month from Oct-Jan? Or just overall when averaging them together?

I suspect the latter is more doable than the former. But this is one of those funky years that could flip around completely upon the seasonal termination of EHEM monsoonal forcing in November.

 

I just meant in general.  Probably some good variability in there.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2018-19 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 26

Lows 32 or below = 13

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 


#94
snow_wizard

Posted 09 September 2018 - 08:16 PM

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NE Pacific has been cooling off a bit in the last week.

 

cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png

 

cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

 

Pretty robust -PDO there IMO.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2018-19 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 26

Lows 32 or below = 13

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 


#95
snow_wizard

Posted 09 September 2018 - 08:23 PM

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Amazingly it appears this may be another very short minus QBO episode.  It has already gone positive down to 20mb and is rapidly descending.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2018-19 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 26

Lows 32 or below = 13

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 


#96
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 10 September 2018 - 09:20 PM

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To be honest I can't really imagine a winter better than 2016-17 in the PNW, and I do not think this year will come close to that one. We'll probably end up viewing that one as a 21st century high water mark.


Snowfall

2018-19: 0.1"

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#97
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 10 September 2018 - 09:23 PM

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I am not being facetious, but when was the last time we had an October-early January period which was dominated by cold anomalies? 1993? 1985? The idea just seems far fetched...


Snowfall

2018-19: 0.1"

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#98
Deweydog

Posted 10 September 2018 - 09:25 PM

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I am not being facetious, but when was the last time we had an October-early January period which was dominated by cold anomalies? 1993? 1985? The idea just seems far fetched...


It's been forecast here MANY times.

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#99
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 10 September 2018 - 09:31 PM

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It's been forecast here MANY times.

 

I'm kind of feeling a coolish October this year though. That month has been mild/torchy most of the past decade. 2009 and 2013 were the only ones I can recall being cool.


Snowfall

2018-19: 0.1"

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#100
Phil

Posted 10 September 2018 - 09:37 PM

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To be honest I can't really imagine a winter better than 2016-17 in the PNW, and I do not think this year will come close to that one. We'll probably end up viewing that one as a 21st century high water mark.


I’m bookmarking this s**t. #bumptrollmaterial
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