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Lets talk winter 2018/2019

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#101
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 10 September 2018 - 09:40 PM

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I’m bookmarking this s**t.

 

In the past 25 years 10 days in December 2008 and 2016-17 kind of stand alone regionally. Now juxtapose that to any previous 25 year period and well...It kind of speaks for itself.


Snowfall

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#102
Phil

Posted 10 September 2018 - 09:46 PM

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In the past 25 years 10 days in December 2008 and 2016-17 kind of stand alone regionally. Now juxtapose that to any previous 25 year period and well...It kind of speaks for itself.


That’s the past. It doesn’t necessarily predict the future any more than our great snow drought from 1998-2008 did.

Then we broke the all time record from 1898-99 in 2009, in the face of UHI and a terrible location for snow (DCA).
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...pwsdash#history

#103
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 10 September 2018 - 10:00 PM

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That’s the past. It doesn’t necessarily predict the future any more than our great snow drought from 1998-2008 did.

Then we broke the all time record from 1898-99 in 2009, in the face of UHI and a terrible location for snow (DCA).

 

Something changed in our climate almost 30 years ago. It is pretty astonishing. 


Snowfall

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#104
Phil

Posted 10 September 2018 - 10:12 PM

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Something changed in our climate almost 30 years ago. It is pretty astonishing.


Yeah, the climate tends to do that. A lot. ;)
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...pwsdash#history

#105
Deweydog

Posted 10 September 2018 - 10:16 PM

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Sounds like Phil's going all in for this winter!
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All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#106
Front Ranger

Posted 11 September 2018 - 12:04 AM

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2016-17 can definitely be topped in western WA.

Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#107
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 11 September 2018 - 07:06 AM

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In the past 25 years 10 days in December 2008 and 2016-17 kind of stand alone regionally. Now juxtapose that to any previous 25 year period and well...It kind of speaks for itself.


Dec 2008 was pretty boring south of Salem though so that might not be the best comparison. I guess you're right in the sense that we haven't seen much of a regionally amazing winter. 13-14 was pretty good though.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 18-19 Stats:

Coldest high: 54 (Oct 5)
Coldest low: 35 (Oct 15)
Total snowfall: 0"
Last accumulating snowfall: February 21-22, 2018
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 1985

Personal Stats:

Last accumulating snowfall : March 6, 2017
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 2008

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope


#108
AbbyJr

Posted 30 September 2018 - 09:40 PM

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I see Joe bastardi is going for your standard PNW blowtorch this winter. +5F. Enjoy.

Doesn't he always call for a warm PNW every winter?  :lol:


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#109
Black Hole

Posted 04 October 2018 - 10:55 AM

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Any new thoughts anybody?


BS Atmospheric Science University of Utah May 2015

PhD Candidate Atmospheric Sciences

 

--Emphasis on: Forecasting, Mountain Weather, Numerical Weather Prediction, Data Assimilation

 

Winter 2017/2018

Dec 4: 3.2", 16: 0.9", 20: 2.1", 23: 1.5", 25: 4.6"

Jan 6: 1.5", 20: 10.8", 25: 1.5"

Feb 19: 8.6", 20: 2.4", 23: 7.1", 25: .5"

Mar 4: 13", 15: 1.8", 17: 5.3", 25: 4.2"

April 12: 1", 17: 1.3"

Total: 69.3"

 

 

Winter 2016/17 Snow:
Nov 17: 3.2", 23: 1.6", 28: 9.2" (14)

Dec 1: .5", 16: 2.5", 25: 13" (16)

Jan 2: 5", 3: 2.4", 4: 7.7", 12: 1", 19: 1.2", 21: 13", 23: 6", 24: 1", 25: 3.7", 26: 2.5" (43.5) 

Feb 11: .5", 23: 6.5", 27: 4.5" (13.5)

Mar 5: 5.5" (5.5)

Apr 8: 2", 9: 1.8" (3.8)

May 17: 1" (1)
Total: 96.3"

Lowest Temp: 2F


#110
Phil

Posted 04 October 2018 - 11:32 AM

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Any new thoughts anybody?


Not really, still leaning towards a frontloaded winter or a sandwich winter (colder at the bookends, warm in the middle?). The analogs suggest the highest likelyhood of a cold and/or stormy pattern for the west is during the months of November and/or December, with March being a wildcard and January/February leaning warmer.

As usual, the big unknown is how the stratosphere/PV behaves..the analog years that bucked climo all featured significant disruptions to the polar vortex, which affected tropical forcing via the enhancement of the mass circulation/static stability. We saw this happen last winter with the SSW in early February that ended up reversing the pattern of the last 5+ years (albeit briefly) and rescuing the winter for much of the West.

So if any large SSW events occur, especially before New Years (given the antecedent conditions in the tropics right now), it could definitely change the equation very quickly under the weaker ENSO/lowfreq forcing components).
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...pwsdash#history

#111
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 04 October 2018 - 02:09 PM

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Any new thoughts anybody?


Guessing the goodies for PDX north sometime in Nov-Dec with a possible dip of said goodies below 45N once but pretty marginal.

Torch from mid Jan to the end of March/April.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 18-19 Stats:

Coldest high: 54 (Oct 5)
Coldest low: 35 (Oct 15)
Total snowfall: 0"
Last accumulating snowfall: February 21-22, 2018
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 1985

Personal Stats:

Last accumulating snowfall : March 6, 2017
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 2008

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope


#112
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 05 October 2018 - 11:30 AM

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Any new thoughts anybody?


I'm eyeing the December 5-20 period for the first Arctic Blast of the season. Though there might be some leeway with this and it could come a little sooner or later. December quite frankly could be downright EPIC. January I'm seeing it stormy with possible atmospheric river events. Then I see one last period with a good opportunity for Arctic Blast around the January 25 to February 10 time frame.

So to summarize, I'm looking at two separate 15 day windows where we have a great shot at cold/snowy weather here in the PNW.

December 5 to December 20.
January 25 to February 10.

My reasoning behind all of this has to do with analogs and weather cycles I've been looking at. I'll go more in depth later this month.

#113
Deweydog

Posted 05 October 2018 - 06:15 PM

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I'm eyeing the December 5-20 period for the first Arctic Blast of the season. Though there might be some leeway with this and it could come a little sooner or later. December quite frankly could be downright EPIC. January I'm seeing it stormy with possible atmospheric river events. Then I see one last period with a good opportunity for Arctic Blast around the January 25 to February 10 time frame.

So to summarize, I'm looking at two separate 15 day windows where we have a great shot at cold/snowy weather here in the PNW.

December 5 to December 20.
January 25 to February 10.

My reasoning behind all of this has to do with analogs and weather cycles I've been looking at. I'll go more in depth later this month.


Get him, Jesse!

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#114
Jesse

Posted 05 October 2018 - 10:09 PM

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Get him, Jesse!


It’s all you big guy. I’d open with a rape/murder zinger.

#115
Deweydog

Posted 06 October 2018 - 05:52 AM

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It’s all you big guy. I’d open with a rape/murder zinger.


Those are kept under lock and key for people as particularly heinous as Tim. I mean, did you see his rain related posts yesterday??? Come on...

All roads lead to Walgreens.