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September 2018 Observations and Discussion

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#1
Tom

Posted 26 August 2018 - 03:59 AM

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Who's ready for Autumn??? It has been a rather hot and humid summer for most of us on here and the dreaded humidity has taken it's toll I'm sure, but cooler air is on the horizon and signs of Autumn are certainly in progress. I don't know about you, but I'm pretty excited about this month. Not only is it the 1st month of met Autumn, but the old cyclical pattern looses its grip and we begin to see signs of the new LRC showing up, moreso towards the end of the month. With that being said, let's dive in and discuss what we may expect this month.

I have long believed, that this coming cold season will be a rather extreme one for the CONUS overall. How does nature lay the ground work??? Well, I'm already seeing the models head towards the idea of cooling the Arctic very quickly. In fact, by Sept 1st, parts of Alaska/NW Territories will see their first flakes fly, as well as, many parts of N Canada. Before I get into that discussion, I'll pay more attention to our sub's weather.

According to the various long range forecasting tools that I use, in particular, the LRC, we should see a warm 1st week of Sept and an active one. The LRC is not the only methodology to agree with this idea, but the BSR would also suggest some ridging/warmth to intervene during this period. Now, while most longer range models have been steadfast that the entire month of Sept will be warm and dominated by ridging across the central/eastern CONUS, the BSR/LRC does not suggest so. This is why, I'm going to say, that during the Week of the 9th, we will see the northern tier of the sub see stronger storm systems traverse the region and usher in, at times, some very cool weather. As is the case in the Autumn, surges of warmth ahead of systems will be common this month. I'm looking for a big cold front around Sept 11th that may lead into a very busy period (1-2 weeks) of storm systems and a cooler period overall. Even though modeling is not showing this now, I do believe they will flip. Let's see if I'm right.

In the meantime, here is the CFSv2's latest thinking for the month of September....

summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201809.gif

summaryCFSv2.NaPrec.201809.gif
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#2
OKwx2k4

Posted 26 August 2018 - 09:29 AM

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Who's ready for Autumn??? It has been a rather hot and humid summer for most of us on here and the dreaded humidity has taken it's toll I'm sure, but cooler air is on the horizon and signs of Autumn are certainly in progress. I don't know about you, but I'm pretty excited about this month. Not only is it the 1st month of met Autumn, but the old cyclical pattern looses its grip and we begin to see signs of the new LRC showing up, moreso towards the end of the month. With that being said, let's dive in and discuss what we may expect this month.

I have long believed, that this coming cold season will be a rather extreme one for the CONUS overall. How does nature lay the ground work??? Well, I'm already seeing the models head towards the idea of cooling the Arctic very quickly. In fact, by Sept 1st, parts of Alaska/NW Territories will see their first flakes fly, as well as, many parts of N Canada. Before I get into that discussion, I'll pay more attention to our sub's weather.

According to the various long range forecasting tools that I use, in particular, the LRC, we should see a warm 1st week of Sept and an active one. The LRC is not the only methodology to agree with this idea, but the BSR would also suggest some ridging/warmth to intervene during this period. Now, while most longer range models have been steadfast that the entire month of Sept will be warm and dominated by ridging across the central/eastern CONUS, the BSR/LRC does not suggest so. This is why, I'm going to say, that during the Week of the 9th, we will see the northern tier of the sub see stronger storm systems traverse the region and usher in, at times, some very cool weather. As is the case in the Autumn, surges of warmth ahead of systems will be common this month. I'm looking for a big cold front around Sept 11th that may lead into a very busy period (1-2 weeks) of storm systems and a cooler period overall. Even though modeling is not showing this now, I do believe they will flip. Let's see if I'm right.

In the meantime, here is the CFSv2's latest thinking for the month of September....

summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201809.gif

summaryCFSv2.NaPrec.201809.gif


I think you're pretty spot-on. I've had the rough idea along the same lines for a bit. The latter half to 10 days or so looks like it may be very very cool to me.

#3
Tom

Posted 27 August 2018 - 03:08 AM

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Are models starting to flip???  Starting to see evidence that changes are brewing in the longer range out towards the Week of the 9th.  Both GEFS/GEPS seeing the North American pattern re-align itself.

 

gem-ens_z500trend_namer_29.png

 

 

gfs-ens_z500trend_namer_29.png

 

 

 

 

CFSv2 weeklies have started to show more consistent runs of the break in the warm pattern once we get past the first full week of September.

 

cfs_t2m_anom_20E_northamerica_2018082700

 

 

cfs_t2m_anom_20E_northamerica_2018082700


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#4
OKwx2k4

Posted 27 August 2018 - 06:25 PM

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Are models starting to flip??? Starting to see evidence that changes are brewing in the longer range out towards the Week of the 9th. Both GEFS/GEPS seeing the North American pattern re-align itself.

gem-ens_z500trend_namer_29.png


gfs-ens_z500trend_namer_29.png




CFSv2 weeklies have started to show more consistent runs of the break in the warm pattern once we get past the first full week of September.

cfs_t2m_anom_20E_northamerica_2018082700


cfs_t2m_anom_20E_northamerica_2018082700


That's looking a lot more like what I had in mind. In fact, would not be surprised to see the anomalies grow. Getting ready for that time of fall friends! I can't wait! Next weekend is college football! Actually it is only 3 days! I'm excited to close August out this week and "fall" into the last 3rd of this year! My power crews even did their maintenance on the timber along the powerlines so let's 'git 'er done'.
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#5
Tom

Posted 28 August 2018 - 03:00 AM

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That's looking a lot more like what I had in mind. In fact, would not be surprised to see the anomalies grow. Getting ready for that time of fall friends! I can't wait! Next weekend is college football! Actually it is only 3 days! I'm excited to close August out this week and "fall" into the last 3rd of this year! My power crews even did their maintenance on the timber along the powerlines so let's 'git 'er done'.

Yup, your Autumn will be starting early this year my friend.  You can say good bye to the pesky ridge in the south in about 8-9 days.  I just saw the latest Euro Weeklies and boy, have they flipped cool to cold from mid Sept through the early part of October!  It's nice to see the models flip towards the long range forecasting methods we both use.  


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#6
Tom

Posted 28 August 2018 - 03:37 AM

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As per latest overnight guidance, the shift to cooler may be earlier than previously thought.  Get ready for an Autumnal-like pattern!  Late next week, the trough near NW NAMER & the NE PAC is replaced by a ridge.  It was a matter of time the models flipped to this pattern.  The waters in the NE PAC are torching...big implications as the new pattern takes shape later this month.

 

 

cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

 

 

 

 

I'm both encouraged and excited about what is going to transpire this month.  Not enough time this morning to put together a long post on what I'm seeing.  Heading out to the gym and will be back later.  



#7
Hawkeye

Posted 28 August 2018 - 04:59 AM

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It has already been a pretty wet month around here.  It looks as though many could get a few to several more inches over the next couple weeks as a front keeps waving back and forth across the region.


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season snowfall: 3.4"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#8
Niko

Posted 28 August 2018 - 02:49 PM

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Looks like the 2nd week of September wants to really cool off and stay as well. That will feel soooo nice! My extended has highs near 70F and lows at 50F. Hello Autumn!


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#9
Tom

Posted 29 August 2018 - 03:33 AM

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It's been a little while since I've used this technique to dive into the longer range pattern.  I used it back in July that prompted the AO to dip negative for a little while.  In any case, I'm seeing 10mb warming across NW NAMER as we close out Aug, which suggest to me, that by the middle of September, we should have lots of ridging in this region.  Depending on how long this warming continues, I'm predicting it to be a precursor of how October will open.  Not to get to far ahead of myself, but the pattern that is evolving is quite fascinating to me and the evolution of the Vortex-like pattern across N Canada as the month opens is very reminiscent of how Sept '13 evolved, although, I think that year the mean trough was centered farther east (between Greenland and NE Canada) unlike this year where it seems to be placed across north/central Canada.

 

 

Notice the warming that is blossoming....

 

 

temp10anim.gif

 

 

All summer long, it seemingly felt like the summer time vortex kept spinning and spinning near the Archipelago region of Canada.  Not surprisingly, this map indicates that across the majority of the Arctic, the thickest ice is in this part of the north.  According to this map, the yellow/red colors portray sea ice that is 3-4 meters thick!

 

CICE_map_thick_LA_EN_20180828.png


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#10
LNK_Weather

Posted 29 August 2018 - 04:01 AM

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In the last run, the Euro Weeklies turned overall cold for basically the entire run. It's also showing an arctic airmass arriving about the second week of September.


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>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6"), 11/25 (3.6"), 12/1-2 (3.0")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 13.7"             Coldest Low: 6*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#11
Tom

Posted 29 August 2018 - 04:05 AM

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There are a couple of systems that I'm monitoring on the other side of the globe.  The animation below is showing a system that tracks north of Japan into the sea of Okhotsk.  This suggests that we should expect a system coming out of the N Rockies and take a northerly track across the N Plains late next week (6th/7th) that will usher in the beginning of a storm train and a busy period. 

 

 

Following that system, right on its heels, we see a re-curving typhoon that hits Japan about Day 6-7, which correlates with my prediction of a strong CF around the target date 9/11 (+/- 1 day).  So now we have, the EAR agreeing with the LRC and BSR....isn't this just fascinating stuff???

 

 

ecmwf_mslpaNorm_npac_7.png

ecmwf_mslpaNorm_npac_8.png

 


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#12
Tom

Posted 29 August 2018 - 04:06 AM

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In the last run, the Euro Weeklies turned overall cold for basically the entire run. It's also showing an arctic airmass arriving about the second week of September.

Nice, fits my thinking of a strong CF around 9/11 period.  Let's see if it holds onto the idea on Thursdays run.



#13
Hawkeye

Posted 29 August 2018 - 11:14 AM

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The euro was already very wet through the next ten days.  Today's 12z run went to the next level.  It has a heavy rain event somewhere in the region every single day, dropping a wide swath of 5-10 inches from Nebraska to southern Wisconsin.


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season snowfall: 3.4"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#14
Tom

Posted 30 August 2018 - 03:20 AM

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JMA Weeklies came in today and suggest the warmth to continue through the first 2 weeks, but still insist that a somewhat cooler pattern sets in 2nd half of the month.

 

Week 2...

 

Y201808.D2912_gl2.png

 

Week 3-4...

 

Y201808.D2912_gl2.png



#15
Tom

Posted 30 August 2018 - 03:28 AM

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Through Labor Day weekend, it looks real wet across the MW/GL's region...

 

wpc_acc_precip_mw_120.png

 

 

wpc_acc_precip_greatlakes_120.png


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#16
Tom

Posted 30 August 2018 - 03:35 AM

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Over the last day or so, the models have flipped noticeably warm into Week 2...I think it has a lot to do with the Super Typhoon that is forecast to develop in the W PAC.  If we do get a tropical storm in the Gulf, that will also complicate things post Labor Day.  Let's see how things shake out.

 

 

Dl2Ef8sVAAEVoyV.jpg


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#17
jaster220

Posted 30 August 2018 - 04:55 AM

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It's been a little while since I've used this technique to dive into the longer range pattern.  I used it back in July that prompted the AO to dip negative for a little while.  In any case, I'm seeing 10mb warming across NW NAMER as we close out Aug, which suggest to me, that by the middle of September, we should have lots of ridging in this region.  Depending on how long this warming continues, I'm predicting it to be a precursor of how October will open.  Not to get to far ahead of myself, but the pattern that is evolving is quite fascinating to me and the evolution of the Vortex-like pattern across N Canada as the month opens is very reminiscent of how Sept '13 evolved, although, I think that year the mean trough was centered farther east (between Greenland and NE Canada) unlike this year where it seems to be placed across north/central Canada.

 

 

Notice the warming that is blossoming....

 

 

temp10anim.gif

 

 

All summer long, it seemingly felt like the summer time vortex kept spinning and spinning near the Archipelago region of Canada.  Not surprisingly, this map indicates that across the majority of the Arctic, the thickest ice is in this part of the north.  According to this map, the yellow/red colors portray sea ice that is 3-4 meters thick!

 

CICE_map_thick_LA_EN_20180828.png

 

Per the ice map, it certainly does look like the cold has been predominant over our side of the globe. Certainly would seem to favor those with the idea that we're in for an early and/or frigid cold season. 


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#18
Niko

Posted 30 August 2018 - 05:00 AM

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That cooler air for the 2nd week of September might be fading away. Hope not. Lets see what happens.



#19
Tom

Posted 31 August 2018 - 03:44 AM

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Taking a look at the MJO, phases 8/1 in Sept look like the cooling should start across the northern tier of our sub, then settle down into the S Plains covering the majority of the central CONUS.  Albeit, a weak signal, it does make sense for the north to cool later this week, but until we get things ironed out in the W PAC from Super Typhoon Jebi, models are going to be erratic.  There is strong long range indication that blocking in the high latitudes will evolve Week 1-2.

 

 

ECMF_phase_51m_small.gif

 

 

 

combined_image.png



#20
OKwx2k4

Posted 31 August 2018 - 09:41 AM

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Over the last day or so, the models have flipped noticeably warm into Week 2...I think it has a lot to do with the Super Typhoon that is forecast to develop in the W PAC. If we do get a tropical storm in the Gulf, that will also complicate things post Labor Day. Let's see how things shake out.


Dl2Ef8sVAAEVoyV.jpg


Theres fixing to be a lot of Atmospheric heat moved and removed to colder places. I'll take another week's delay, if necessary, for that to happen. An aleutian low that holds for longer than last round is a virtual 100% guarantee for a good part of Autumn now along with MJO, AO, etc(indices)... all either setting up to cooperate in sync, or are just waiting for one more domino to fall. It would absolutely blow my mind if theres not some abnormal cold landlocked over the central CONUS by late this month.
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#21
Tom

Posted 31 August 2018 - 11:47 AM

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Last run this month from the CFSv2 for Sept's outlook...an atmospheric river of moisture right over the heartland...warm and wet to start off met Autumn.  But does it cool towards the end of the month???  That's something I'll be looking for bc there are reasons going for it.  The front half may carry so much warmth that, if any, cooler weather that comes later in the month will not balance out the month in terms of temp departures.

 

 

 

CFSv2.NaT2m.20180831.201809.gif

CFSv2.NaPrec.20180831.201809.gif



#22
OKwx2k4

Posted 31 August 2018 - 01:17 PM

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Last run this month from the CFSv2 for Sept's outlook...an atmospheric river of moisture right over the heartland...warm and wet to start off met Autumn. But does it cool towards the end of the month??? That's something I'll be looking for bc there are reasons going for it. The front half may carry so much warmth that, if any, cooler weather that comes later in the month will not balance out the month in terms of temp departures.



CFSv2.NaT2m.20180831.201809.gif
CFSv2.NaPrec.20180831.201809.gif


Stout SER there. I think lots of changes coming in the next few days.

#23
Niko

Posted 31 August 2018 - 04:04 PM

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This upcoming weekend looks splendid.



#24
james1976

Posted 31 August 2018 - 07:32 PM

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I was watching TWC and they were showing over the next week the flood of moisture coming up right out of the gulf and thru the midwest. The gulf is wide open. Lets get that river going in the cold season.


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#25
OKwx2k4

Posted 31 August 2018 - 09:13 PM

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I was watching TWC and they were showing over the next week the flood of moisture coming up right out of the gulf and thru the midwest. The gulf is wide open. Lets get that river going in the cold season.


Yes sir. After the moisture this summer, it would be hard to fathom flipping to total drought winter.
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#26
CentralNebWeather

Posted 31 August 2018 - 09:53 PM

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Heavy storm at 8 a.m. Friday morning now pouring rain again. What a year for rainfall. Could be pushing 2 inches when it ends. Insane
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#27
Tom

Posted 01 September 2018 - 03:48 AM

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We made it!  Welcome to September everyone!  Even though summery wx is forecast to continue through the first week of this month, we are heading in the right direction.  Speaking of heading in the right direction, the models have since started to trend cooler during the middle and end of next week.  The 00z Euro, especially, has trended notably cooler across the Plains, specifically, across NE where temps may be held in the low 70's (spotty upper 60's?) Wed-Fri.  Tons of precip is primed during this period.  Pack a Poncho.

 

The maps I posted from yesterday showing the cooling across the northern tier during Phase 8 of the MJO lining up pretty good for later next week.  This also fits the BSR and LRC pattern with the system that I had been looking for to eject out of the N Rockies and take a northerly route while dragging down a Canadian HP.  Looks like there will be a 2-3 day break from the higher heat/humidity across the MW/GL's.

 

This is where things may get real interesting....

 

Back on August 25th, was the beginning of a N PAC wave train that tracked off of the East Asian coast and into the Bearing Sea.  See below the animation.  What excites me about this pattern during the Week of the 9th, the modeling is now suggesting high latitude blocking to develop during this period and this could set the stage for some very strong autumn systems.  One of which, I think may be a pretty potent storm during the 9/11-9/15 period.  If the blocking holds up, I believe the likelihood of snowstorms across central/southern Canada may be in the cards.

 

Mind you, the BSR is lining up with the LRC, agreeing that we should see a very active period starting around the 9/11 time frame (like if it isn't already).  Although, instead of having a frontal boundary set up around the scope of our sub, instead, we may have to deal with wound up storms by mid month.


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#28
Tom

Posted 01 September 2018 - 03:55 AM

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You guys near CR have been getting nailed by heavy rain all night long.   Flood warnings just to your west.  How much have you picked up?



#29
Tom

Posted 01 September 2018 - 04:31 AM

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I've had a lot of time to analyze data and study the pattern this morning.  I'm increasingly encouraged with the idea that this coming cold season will feature "The North American Vortex".  September is usually a big indicator of how the new pattern sets up, esp across the north.  Not surprisingly, practically ALL the models are illustrating a real fast start to winter up north and the early establishment of the Vortex across N Canada.  Folks, I'm stoked about what is evolving and to see the various influencing factors lining up all together is phenomenal.  There are numerous key patterns starting to show up that lead me to believe this Autumn will be filled with excitement.  In any case, I'll dive into what I believe will be some of the key drivers.

 

Firstly, check out the latest SST run for Sept via the CFSv2...can you ask for anything better???  Big time warm pool tucked right into the NE PAC, cold pocket of waters NW of Hawaii, very warm SST's along the East Coast,  and finally, a warmer ENSO 4 & 3.4 regions via ENSO 1.2.  

 

glbSSTMonInd1.gif  

 

 

I just saw the Euro temp forecast across the CONUS for the month of Sept and it's really chilly across the central CONUS.  @LNKwx, are the Euro weeklies still showing the mid month cold shot???

 

How does this map line up with the one below???  Weird.

 

Dl4fjLHV4AAKvfZ.jpg

 


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#30
james1976

Posted 01 September 2018 - 05:13 AM

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Met fall baby!! Noticed over the past few days there are already a few leaf changes and a few coming down around here. Wow
@Tom. Great work. Always love seeing your posts. Pattern is looking exciting!
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#31
Hawkeye

Posted 01 September 2018 - 05:23 AM

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Well, so far Cedar Rapids seems to be in the worst possible spot, stuck within a pocket of subsidence as the strong back edge parks just west and continues to backbuild.  There's more heavy stuff missing north and northeast and now now it looks like it may want to build up along I-80 through Iowa City.

 

I accidentally posted that in the August forum early this morning.  Well, Cedar Rapids did end up in a relative dry pocket surrounded by heavier totals.  I picked up 0.87" from a big blob of moderate rain.  Waterloo received 3 inches, one county southeast 3 inches, two counties west 5+ inches.  We didn't need 5 inches, but I always hate getting the short end of the stick.

 

Attached File  radar_estimate.jpg   379.96KB   0 downloads


season snowfall: 3.4"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#32
Niko

Posted 01 September 2018 - 05:56 AM

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Beautiful, sunny morning out there, but a tad humid. Highs are projected to rise into the 80s and 90s over the next couple of days. Also, I am already seeing leaves change colors. Cant believe we are already in Sept...wow. Time flies.


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#33
Niko

Posted 01 September 2018 - 05:57 AM

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Met fall baby!! Noticed over the past few days there are already a few leaf changes and a few coming down around here. Wow
@Tom. Great work. Always love seeing your posts. Pattern is looking exciting!

It will feel like mid July here w temps into the 90s early next week w high levels of humidity. Hopefully, the 2nd week of Sept cools off.


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#34
Iowawx

Posted 01 September 2018 - 07:17 AM

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Got 1.14 inches of rain here. Some areas of Benton and Tama county Iowa got 6 inches or more. There is another area of moderate rain moving in here now.

Active pattern looks to last for at least the next week. Heavy rain is likely here again tonight.

#35
Hawkeye

Posted 01 September 2018 - 07:27 AM

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Got 1.14 inches of rain here. Some areas of Benton and Tama county Iowa got 6 inches or more. There is another area of moderate rain moving in here now.

Active pattern looks to last for at least the next week. Heavy rain is likely here again tonight.

 

The blob of moderate rain approaching CR is crapping out while heavy rain is strengthening up north where 2-3+" has already fallen.  It's just one of those events, I guess... pretty disappointing.  This is two straight rain events that dropped the least amount in the entire area right through my neighborhood.


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season snowfall: 3.4"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#36
Madtown

Posted 01 September 2018 - 07:34 AM

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Surprised it took this long....everyone blaming global warming for all the rain here in Wi...
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#37
Iowawx

Posted 01 September 2018 - 07:35 AM

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The blob of moderate rain approaching CR is crapping out while heavy rain is strengthening up north where 2-3+" has already fallen. It's just one of those events, I guess... pretty disappointing. This is two straight rain events that dropped the least amount in the entire area right through my neighborhood.


We’ve got lots of chances coming up. I think tonight and tomorrow look good for heavy rain. Maybe getting this round out of here will allow stronger storms to form later.

#38
LNK_Weather

Posted 01 September 2018 - 07:46 AM

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Surprised it took this long....everyone blaming global warming for all the rain here in Wi...

Of course. Gotta needlessly politicize weather just like everything else. People act like there were no hurricanes/floods/heat waves/tornado outbreaks before 2000.

It's a bit muggy out here. I blame climate change and not the warm front sitting right on top of me :lol:
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>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6"), 11/25 (3.6"), 12/1-2 (3.0")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 13.7"             Coldest Low: 6*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#39
jaster220

Posted 01 September 2018 - 08:16 AM

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Sheesh! The heat has like ZERO problem bouncing back this summer. Current H-Index standing at 89F with a DP at 72! And it's not even the hot part of the day. Our "cool-down" was about 1.5 days, with one high in the 70's surrounded by an 80 and an 82. Not exactly a cold-wave for the ages, lol.

 

Now, again I've got my grid showing 80% risk for T-storms today. Let's see if this finds a way to FAIL like the 29th?



#40
westMJim

Posted 01 September 2018 - 08:21 AM

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The final numbers are now in for August 2018. The mean temperature was 73.5 (+2.7°) Total rain fall was 6.61 this will go down as the 11th warmest August of recorded history here at Grand Rapids.
For the meteorological summer, the mean temperature was 72.6° the average is 70.6° so this summer was +2.0°


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#41
westMJim

Posted 01 September 2018 - 08:25 AM

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Sheesh! The heat has like ZERO problem bouncing back this summer. Current H-Index standing at 89F with a DP at 72! And it's not even the hot part of the day. Our "cool-down" was about 1.5 days, with one high in the 70's surrounded by an 80 and an 82. Not exactly a cold-wave for the ages, lol.

 

Now, again I've got my grid showing 80% risk for T-storms today. Let's see if this finds a way to FAIL like the 29th?

Here at my house I have gotten 0.46" of rain so far today at this time it is very dark here and the temperature here is just 72° with some light rain falling. 



#42
jaster220

Posted 01 September 2018 - 10:21 AM

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Here at my house I have gotten 0.46" of rain so far today at this time it is very dark here and the temperature here is just 72° with some light rain falling. 

 

Lucky you. 

 

Can't make this stuff up. Marshall = splitsville. Not a drop yet.

 

Attached File  20180901 225 pm Radar snipit.PNG   220.15KB   1 downloads



#43
jaster220

Posted 01 September 2018 - 10:22 AM

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The final numbers are now in for August 2018. The mean temperature was 73.5 (+2.7°) Total rain fall was 6.61 this will go down as the 11th warmest August of recorded history here at Grand Rapids.
For the meteorological summer, the mean temperature was 72.6° the average is 70.6° so this summer was +2.0°

 

Any idea where that ranks?



#44
Tom

Posted 01 September 2018 - 10:37 AM

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It took till the last few days of August, but a big dent in N MO's drought has taken place...as well as parts of S IA...

 

precip_7d_accum_mw_2018090112.png


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#45
james1976

Posted 01 September 2018 - 10:48 AM

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Nice outflow boundary draped across mby on current satellite image. Hoping for some t-storm action later!



#46
Hawkeye

Posted 01 September 2018 - 11:03 AM

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The euro is trying to shift the best rain over the next week westward a bit.  It's trying to develop a mid/surface trough feature in NE/KS, which parks and dumps over there.

 

Attached File  ecmwf_acc_precip_mw_240.png   186.16KB   0 downloads


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season snowfall: 3.4"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#47
Hawkeye

Posted 01 September 2018 - 11:07 AM

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Nice outflow boundary draped across mby on current satellite image. Hoping for some t-storm action later!

 

The HRRR is insisting on northern Iowa being the place for tonight's action.  The euro agrees.  I don't doubt.  I'll probably go the entire weekend with only an inch of rain.


season snowfall: 3.4"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#48
Iowawx

Posted 01 September 2018 - 11:18 AM

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Pretty much right in the bullseye here for the next week. Hopefully things can move just a bit south tonight, but DVN says that areas north of interstate 80 have best chance for heavy rain/flash flooding. 

Attached Files



#49
westMJim

Posted 01 September 2018 - 11:20 AM

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Any idea where that ranks?

For the summer season. NO but I will try and see if I can come with something will let you know.


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#50
james1976

Posted 01 September 2018 - 12:49 PM

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Flash Flood Watch hoisted for highway 20 and I-80 corridor tonight into tomorrow. Had a feeling that was gonna happen with the latest model output. 1-3 with iso 5" possible imby.