September 2018 Observations and Discussion

[Madtown]

^^^^^what the hell?

[james1976]

What in the freaking hell is this?? The new and ‘improved’ GFS says saddle up.

I assume its that storm Tom was referring to in a previous post. I think Hawkeye mentioned it too. Summer is coming to an end!

[james1976]

Just looked at this morning's GFS run. Lot of troughs and systems after this week. I think we are kicking into fall mode!

[Tom]

I assume its that storm Tom was referring to in a previous post. I think Hawkeye mentioned it too. Summer is coming to an end!

No, that's actually an Alberta Clipper believe it or not, but boy, oh boy, something spectacular is brewing across North America this cold season.

[Niko]

What in the freaking hell is this?? The new and ‘improved’ GFS says saddle up.

[Niko]

Absolutely, fantastiko outside. Not a cloud to be found. A tad humid still, otherwise, stunning morning!

[OKwx2k4]

BOOM SHACKALAKA! Theres the sudden autumn I've been drawing up.

[jaster220]

Here at my house it now has been 12 days without any rain (11 days at GRR) With the lower sun angle and the rain we had late August and early September the grass is still very green here.  GRR had another 90° day yesterday. That gives GRR 19 for 2018.  And Grand Rapids is now has a mean of 70.1° (+4.6°) Still on track for one of the warmest Septembers on record.

 

Marshall only scored one 90+ day which was yesterday at 91F. And personally, I'm fine with it. Would like to pull the plug on the a/c units and catch a small break in util's before I need my furnace, lol

[james1976]

Storming like crazy here. Those training storms are sagging south. Gonna be a stormy day. This hot, dry and boring pattern is finally breaking.

[Hawkeye]

I already picked up 0.60" from two little potent cells out ahead of the main line.  It's nice to experience lightning/thunder and heavy rain again after two weeks without.

[Hawkeye]

The main line just moved through with plenty of heavy rain and gusty wind.  Almost all of our heavy rain this year has come with a near calm wind, so this was a change.  My rain total is up to 1.52".

[james1976]

Im loving that long range 12z GFS. Heck of a pattern change if it verifies.

[Stormgeek]

What in the freaking hell is this?? The new and ‘improved’ GFS says saddle up.

Well then. That would be just a slight bit early

[BrianJK]

Pretty incredible to see all this precip literally disappear as it moves towards my area. Been doing it since around 8 this morning.

[Niko]

Sunny N gorgeous outside. Temp @ 83F. I currently have my AC running, so that means its probably humid.

[Niko]

Remnants of Florence is hammering the EC today w flooding issues. Friends from B-Town and NYC told me that flooding was a big concern there.

[St Paul Storm]

Well then. That would be just a slight bit early

Highly unlikely to verify, but if it did that would mean the only months we didn’t have snow here this year are May, June, July and August. Crazy.

[St Paul Storm]

The 12z upgraded GFS shows NE, IA, WI, IL and MI also getting snowflakes right before the end of September.

 

How about a nice spread the wealth in late Sept? lol

[Hawkeye]

I'm now up to 1.89" for the day.

[Iowawx]

I'm now up to 1.89" for the day.

Some heavy cells must have moved over your area. I'm at 0.84" so far today. Winds must have been strong because a couple of my flower pots blew off my deck, along with a chair. Should keep adding to total today and tonight with more rounds of showers and thunderstorms. 

[Minny_Weather]

Had a nice (now severe) thunderstorm develop right over here. 15 minutes of heavy rain. Of course I wasn't home when it happened, but I got back and everything was soaking. Rained enough for a little dynamic cooling action. 74.3*F.

[Minny_Weather]

Looks like the new and improved GFS model needs some more improvements.

[CentralNebWeather]

Went to my son’s 7th grade football game this afternoon. Game time temp of 92 with a dew of 68. Oppressive July I mean September heat. Enough already. Maybe down to one more day of this.

[Bryan1117]

Picked up a solid .70 of rain from the thunderstorms that rolled through this afternoon.

 

I got caught in quite the deluge on I-29 driving back from Sioux City, IA this afternoon... heaviest rain I have driven through all year, blinding downpours at times with strong winds. Thankfully everyone else on the road slowed way down and proceeded with caution during the worst of the downpours.

[OKwx2k4]

#Triggered

That would be nailing it if this plays out. Just incredible.

[Tom]

The 12z upgraded GFS shows NE, IA, WI, IL and MI also getting snowflakes right before the end of September.

 

How about a nice spread the wealth in late Sept? lol

I was just thinking, what if your first flakes do in fact happen towards the end of this month.  I wonder what the record shortest period is from the "last" flake vs "first" flake for MSP??  

[Tom]

#Triggered

gfs_T2ma_us_38.png

That would be nailing it if this plays out. Just incredible.

I already gave my cousin down in DFW a heads up that Autumn is coming late month down south.  Dust off those long sleeves and jackets!

[CentralNebWeather]

It has been such a long summer that this upcoming pattern change will really be a shock to the system. Looking forward to wearing long sleeved shirts, sweatshirts, jackets. Noticed a lot of leaves changing tonight as we I came home. That may really accelerate in the next 2 weeks.

[St Paul Storm]

I was just thinking, what if your first flakes do in fact happen towards the end of this month.  I wonder what the record shortest period is from the "last" flake vs "first" flake for MSP??

 

 

I’ll do some data digging to see if I can get an answer. I’m sure this would certainly set a near record of it happened in Sept.

[Tom]

I’ll do some data digging to see if I can get an answer. I’m sure this would certainly set a near record of it happened in Sept.

Awesome.  Let me know what you find!  Man, 00z NAM spinning up the seasons first legit Autumn storm up towards the Northwoods.  A nice looking, wound up, 990mb SLP up near U.P. late week.  I've noticed models have been trending stronger with this storm, as a result, temps over the weekend are getting cooler.

 

While waiting for the model to load, it's now showing the first flakes of the season near Int'l Falls...

 

 

[Tom]

Since we are likely going to be talking about our first Frosts/Freezes of the season across the northern half of our sub forum, here is a historical map showing the likelihood of when to expect the First Freeze's.

 

 

 

[Tom]

As Autumn officially arrives at 8:54pm cst on Saturday, nature will provide a well-timed autumnal airmass for most of us across the sub forum.  Day time highs in the 60's across the GL's/MW will be a nice reprieve from the near record heat here on Thursday.  I'm sure many will get out and enjoy some outdoor fall-like activities this weekend.  Pumpkin spice anyone???

 

 

 

 

The forthcoming and long awaited pattern change for many on here, will definitely be a shock to the system and means business.  The highly amplified North American pattern will likely discharge early season arctic cold directly down from the Arctic and make its way all the way down into southern Texas!  How about that for a flip???  Forget about the pesky southern ridge that has plagued our southern members.  

 

 

 

I've studied the LRC and how the cyclical pattern develops over the past several years, but this year, is the first year, that something rather interesting stands out.  Instead of waiting until the later parts of October, or even into November, for seeing a legit colder regime in the all important months of Oct/Nov, this year is teeing up a dramatic flip out of the "old" and into the "new".  I have long believed that this cold season will feature the North American Vortex, in fact, North America may be the magnet for media attention this year.  It was Asia that had brewed up all the media attention for outstanding cold/snow the past few years, saddle up, b/c without any doubt in my mind, our turn is coming this year.

[Tom]

The 00z GEFS are basically teasing me, I mean, this is probably one of the sweetest looking Split Flow patterns you can draw up while welcoming October....take a gander at that PAC Jet, AK Ridge, Hudson Bay vortex...moisture plume across our sub....

 

 

 

[Niko]

Nice batch of chilly air arrives next week. My highs not getting outta the 50s and lows in the 40s (40-45). Hello Autumn! Would not be surprise if my area sees some upper 30s for low temps.

[jaster220]

I was just thinking, what if your first flakes do in fact happen towards the end of this month.  I wonder what the record shortest period is from the "last" flake vs "first" flake for MSP??  

 

For SWMI, we tracked that in 2014. Would have to look back at where that landed. Ofc, MSP is way way NW of Marshall and thus prolly has a crazy short historical avg by comparison. 

 

I’ll do some data digging to see if I can get an answer. I’m sure this would certainly set a near record of it happened in Sept.

 

Not sure about that. Those 1880's were a stretch of brutal brutal winters in your region. If they tracked such data back then, you would likely see some eye-popping short warm seasons.

[Thunder98]

Ely, MN could see some days with a Rain/Snow Mix. 

 

[james1976]

Heavy t-storms over here this morning! Looks like a couple active days and then boom.....60s for highs. Bigtime flip. Loving how late sept-early oct are looking.

[Hawkeye]

I just picked up a solid 0.61" from the morning line.  That should be it for us until some decaying stuff reaches the area Thursday night.

[Niko]

Currently mostly cloudy and cooler today w temps in the upper 60s. Warmer air and humidity will return briefly tomorrow b4 the real shot of chilly air arrives.

[Niko]

Severe weather likely by Friday.