September 2018 Observations and Discussion

[james1976]

That 12z GFS is a beaut mid-long range.

[St Paul Storm]

For SWMI, we tracked that in 2014. Would have to look back at where that landed. Ofc, MSP is way way NW of Marshall and thus prolly has a crazy short historical avg by comparison. 

 

 

 

Not sure about that. Those 1880's were a stretch of brutal brutal winters in your region. If they tracked such data back then, you would likely see some eye-popping short warm seasons.

I was referring to the era of record keeping. Flakes this September wouldn’t mean the shortest warm season ever. I have a message into NWS Twin Cities to see if they can help pull that info.

[St Paul Storm]

All modes of severe wx possible tomorrow. Enhanced risk by SPC. 2-4” of rain still expected here tonight into tomorrow night. Highs in the upper 50s on Friday. Might pop the furnace on for a few minutes to make sure it works. Looks like the drastic upcoming change is legit.

[Iowawx]

I just picked up a solid 0.61" from the morning line.  That should be it for us until some decaying stuff reaches the area Thursday night.

I got 0.63" from that line. Looks like there is another decent round of storms in Tama county that is moving east towards CR.

[Niko]

My lows next week stand a chance at dropping in the mid 30s range. Yikes! Break out those sweaters y'all.

[Iowawx]

Really dark here now in CR. Strong round of storms moving in. 

[snowstorm83]

Everyone better go outside and soak up the humidity tomorrow, because with any luck it'll be the last summery day of the year! Totally over these pathetic Septembers. 

[Hawkeye]

Really dark here now in CR. Strong round of storms moving in. 

 

Yeah, that second line was doing nothing south of HW20 in central Iowa, but built south and blew up quickly over the last hour.

 

There is a bit of purple on radar just sw of CR, near Fairfax, so there's probably some hail there.

[Hawkeye]

Well, that was certainly a bonus.  A little enhanced curl in the line passed over my side of town and dropped another 0.90" in 25 minutes.  My total today is 1.51".  My 36 hour total is 3.41".  Wow!  I was not expecting so much.  I've actually been lucky with each of the several lines/cells that have moved through since yesterday morning.

 

Boy, we went from incredibly wet, to two weeks of bone dry, and then back to incredibly wet with part of my yard flooding.

[Minny_Weather]

Of course the one time it's cooler here than Michigan is next week, when I'll be in Michigan. Lol.

[Hawkeye]

The intense storms firing on the nose of the LLJ this evening appear to be setting up farther south than what models were suggesting.  Even the northern tier of Iowa counties are too far north for the first round.  James could be right on the line with very heavy rain just north and very little just south.

[Iowawx]

The intense storms firing on the nose of the LLJ this evening appear to be setting up farther south than what models were suggesting.  Even the northern tier of Iowa counties are too far north for the first round.  James could be right on the line with very heavy rain just north and very little just south.

Those storms across Northern Iowa are producing rainfall rates of 2-3 inches per hour in some places. I hope some of these storms can reach CR tonight, but not sure if that will happen.

 

I got 1.22 inches of rain today, bringing my total to 2.07 inches since yesterday. Now sitting at 7.93 inches of rain for the month of September so far. 

[Hawkeye]

I don't think much will be able to get down here.  The last two nights/mornings the storms were on a solid ese trajectory, but with the low moving in from the west tonight there is a stronger sw to ne flow that will try to keep them from sagging south.  What CR would need is for the outflow boundaries to shoot pretty far south and then get some bubbly action north of the boundary.  That is currently occurring along hw20, but it'll be tougher down here.  James is getting hit pretty good.

[james1976]

The intense storms firing on the nose of the LLJ this evening appear to be setting up farther south than what models were suggesting. Even the northern tier of Iowa counties are too far north for the first round. James could be right on the line with very heavy rain just north and very little just south.

Yeah im on the southern part of it. My county was added to the flash flood watch. I think the GFS had a pretty good handle on placement just from looking at radar. Ive got 1.1" so far tonight. Earlier today i picked up 0.90" and yesterday exactly 1" so thats 3" in the past 2 days. Northern IA is gonna cash in tonight.

[westMJim]

I recorded 1.27" of rain here at my house. BTW my CoCorahs station number is MI-KN-33. My temperature at 7 AM is 64.8°

[jaster220]

I recorded 1.27" of rain here at my house. BTW my CoCorahs station number is MI-KN-33. My temperature at 7 AM is 64.8°

 

Not a drop in Marshall. The line of warm frontal cells popped literally 10 mi to my north. Could use some moisture and now the CF showers are iffy at best later today. 

[jaster220]

Of course the one time it's cooler here than Michigan is next week, when I'll be in Michigan. Lol.

 

What takes you over our way? I don't think you'll roast next week, lol

[Minny_Weather]

What takes you over our way? I don't think you'll roast next week, lol

Going to Lansing for a college visit!

[BrianJK]

Who’s ready for 100 HI’s today???

[jaster220]

Who’s ready for 100 HI’s today???

 

High of 85F here. I plan to enjoy my 80's. May be the last of this warm summer

[BrianJK]

High of 85F here. I plan to enjoy my 80's. May be the last of this warm summer

That would have been much more welcomed than 93 with 100 HI. Enjoy it!

[St Paul Storm]

Nice Fall stratiform rain here. A few inches expected today. Enhanced risk of severe storms here this afternoon. Most hi-res models have a beast mode line coming through. 66F today and 56F for a high tomorrow.

[james1976]

Dumped out another 0.95" from overnight. Thats 3.95" in the past 2 1/2 days.

[Hawkeye]

Today is the last day of summer weather.  I suppose I'm ready for fall.

[Niko]

Getting a good dose of rain now. Temps warm a bit today and drop off tomorrow night into the mid 40s. The weekend looks splendid w cooler air and next week looks to get even cooler w highs not getting outta the 50s.

[Niko]

Not a drop in Marshall. The line of warm frontal cells popped literally 10 mi to my north. Could use some moisture and now the CF showers are iffy at best later today. 

Here, I've picked up probably around 0.25" or so.

[Niko]

Today is the last day of summer weather.  I suppose I'm ready for fall.

Me too!

[Niko]

Still raining outside w temps in the mid 60s. Hopefully, I get some t'stms later this afternoon.

[Stormgeek]

Nice Fall stratiform rain here. A few inches expected today. Enhanced risk of severe storms here this afternoon. Most hi-res models have a beast mode line coming through. 66F today and 56F for a high tomorrow.

You are looking to be in a "good" spot for later today. That 10% hatched stretches up to Minneapolis as of the spc update. Curious to see if things are still going like they expected in this next update.

[St Paul Storm]

You are looking to be in a "good" spot for later today. That 10% hatched stretches up to Minneapolis as of the spc update. Curious to see if things are still going like they expected in this next update.

We’ll see what the SPC says in about 45 min. It’s kinda hard to believe things are really going to fire up as modeled with the steady rain this morning. Sounds like they expect the low to deepen enough and ride along the incoming front to create some severe storms. 12z runs not backing down.

[hlcater]

I don't agree with the SPC's 10% hatched for what it's worth. Forcing along the cold front and shear vectors both suggest nearly immediate upscale growth into a QLCS there, which was always the case. What differed from midday yesterday is that the warm front was shown to lift northward quicker, but has been hung up in northern iowa due to convectively reinforced cold air. It should still lift to the I-90 corridor this afternoon, but the delay comes with greatly decreased chances of a surface based supercell riding the SRH rich boundary. Granted, models still initiate a supercell or two north of the front, but those should be nothing more than hailers. The chance for a discrete storm is still there however, and if we get one, due to the pristine kinematic environment, it still bears watching.

 

I think this day will be underwhelming compared to the SPC's forecast in particular. I expect a largely straight line wind event with perhaps a mesovortex tornado threat within the QLCS.

 

http://soundings.pivotalweather.com/sounding_images/rap_2018092015_007_43.94--93.8.png

[james1976]

First frost/freeze on the way next weekend?

[Tom]

First frost/freeze on the way next weekend?

What a way to open up Octob'rrrrr...........widespread cold to invade the nation???

 

[St Paul Storm]

First frost/freeze on the way next weekend?

And I’m camping all weekend on the MN/WI border just north of the TC. Brrrr.

[St Paul Storm]

Latest HRRR still shows a strong linear line blowing through this afternoon as 996mb shoots nearly overhead. Thundering now for the first time all day. Things are ramping up.

[Niko]

Just received a strong t'shower. Looks like it will dry up now. Later this evening, maybe some t'stm activity b4 it calms down for the remaining of the evening.

[Stormgeek]

Latest HRRR still shows a strong linear line blowing through this afternoon as 996mb shoots nearly overhead. Thundering now for the first time all day. Things are ramping up.

It just doesn't feel right having that haha. It is cold, rainy, and not sunny. Amazing what a low overhead can do.

[St Paul Storm]

It just doesn't feel right having that haha. It is cold, rainy, and not sunny. Amazing what a low overhead can do.

Things are changing rapidly. Picked up 1.3” of rain in 30 min with the first round of t-storms just now. Skies are actually brightening a bit and clouds are starting to fly in different directions.

[St Paul Storm]

Mesoscale discussion indicates a tornado watch likely issued in a bit.

[St Paul Storm]

Bowed line being depicted before it hits the metro. Approaching 2” on the day so far.