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September 2018 Observations and Discussion

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#51
jaster220

Posted 01 September 2018 - 01:30 PM

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Lucky you. 

 

Can't make this stuff up. Marshall = splitsville. Not a drop yet.

 

attachicon.gif20180901 225 pm Radar snipit.PNG

 

:lol: Complete and total whiff. I'm back to June's pattern when nothing and I mean nothing would touch the Marshall Dome, lol



#52
jaster220

Posted 01 September 2018 - 01:34 PM

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:lol: Complete and total whiff. I'm back to June's pattern when nothing and I mean nothing would touch the Marshall Dome, lol

 

LOL @ my just posted. THIS has randomly popped in just the past 10 min's and seems to have eyes on mby! 

 

Attached File  20180901 537 pm Radar snipit.PNG   100.16KB   0 downloads



#53
LNK_Weather

Posted 01 September 2018 - 01:39 PM

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Severe thunderstorm watch issued for here. Husker kickoff is at 7. Not looking good, we may see a delay.


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>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 7.1"             Coldest Low: 7*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#54
jaster220

Posted 01 September 2018 - 01:48 PM

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Skies are lowering and legit thunder rumbles incoming. Let's see if it can hold together. My lawn and gardens could use a drink from Ma Nature. 



#55
jaster220

Posted 01 September 2018 - 01:55 PM

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Skies are lowering and legit thunder rumbles incoming. Let's see if it can hold together. My lawn and gardens could use a drink from Ma Nature. 

 

If this misses me, I'll cry UNCLE! 

 

Attached File  20180901 555 pm Radar snipit.PNG   311.68KB   0 downloads


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#56
jaster220

Posted 01 September 2018 - 01:57 PM

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@ Niko

 

Looks like Macomb scored earlier on the first wave of T-storms that managed to whiff me over here. How'd you make out?


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#57
jaster220

Posted 01 September 2018 - 02:02 PM

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RN, Wind, Thunder! Woohoo!  :)


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#58
jaster220

Posted 01 September 2018 - 02:14 PM

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RN, Wind, Thunder! Woohoo!  :)

 

Kudos to Ma Nature for filling in the gap left from the earlier wave with this rogue cell. Guesstimating 0.4-0.5" of rainfall. Just a nice little drink for my lawn-n-garden. 

 

Pencil me a happy camper after all. Wasn't looking too good earlier, lol   :lol:

 

Speaking of camping. LDW is hugely popular in The Mitt for one last summer camp out. Anybody on here doing any of that??



#59
jaster220

Posted 01 September 2018 - 02:17 PM

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Nice. Even dropped our temp into the 70's. Perhaps for the balance of the evening..

 

Attached File  20180901 615 pm KRMY obs.PNG   39.88KB   0 downloads



#60
Iowawx

Posted 01 September 2018 - 02:59 PM

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Some thunderstorms have formed across South Central Iowa now. These storms are heading NE. I am hoping to see at least some daytime storms during this active pattern.

 

Sun came out here for about 3 hours this afternoon. Temps have warmed to 84 and dewpoint here is 76.



#61
jaster220

Posted 01 September 2018 - 04:34 PM

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Had a brief Tor Warning about 1/2 county south of me. Not sure if anything came of it tho? Still have some tame cells parading along 94 this evening.

 

Attached File  20180901 836 pm Radar snipit.PNG   699.81KB   0 downloads


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#62
Hawkeye

Posted 01 September 2018 - 04:53 PM

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Severe thunderstorm watch issued for here. Husker kickoff is at 7. Not looking good, we may see a delay.

 

They are delayed due to the strong storm passing just southeast.  Unfortunately, more strong storms approaching from the sw may delay this game for a long time.


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season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#63
OKwx2k4

Posted 01 September 2018 - 05:10 PM

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I've had a lot of time to analyze data and study the pattern this morning. I'm increasingly encouraged with the idea that this coming cold season will feature "The North American Vortex". September is usually a big indicator of how the new pattern sets up, esp across the north. Not surprisingly, practically ALL the models are illustrating a real fast start to winter up north and the early establishment of the Vortex across N Canada. Folks, I'm stoked about what is evolving and to see the various influencing factors lining up all together is phenomenal. There are numerous key patterns starting to show up that lead me to believe this Autumn will be filled with excitement. In any case, I'll dive into what I believe will be some of the key drivers.

Firstly, check out the latest SST run for Sept via the CFSv2...can you ask for anything better??? Big time warm pool tucked right into the NE PAC, cold pocket of waters NW of Hawaii, very warm SST's along the East Coast, and finally, a warmer ENSO 4 & 3.4 regions via ENSO 1.2.

glbSSTMonInd1.gif


I just saw the Euro temp forecast across the CONUS for the month of Sept and it's really chilly across the central CONUS. @LNKwx, are the Euro weeklies still showing the mid month cold shot???

How does this map line up with the one below??? Weird.

Dl4fjLHV4AAKvfZ.jpg


I asked for a flip. I got more than I bargained for I guess. :lol:

#64
Illinois_WX

Posted 01 September 2018 - 05:32 PM

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Severe thunderstorm watch issued for here. Husker kickoff is at 7. Not looking good, we may see a delay.


Thank the lord I didn’t come back yesterday lol I was so close to coming to back to see it— people wonder why I’m a weather nerd, I literally just saved myself from an 8 hour drive and a drunken disappointment.
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LINCOLN NEBRASKA SNOW TOTALS:

 

 

13-14 : 0"

14-15: 0"

15-16" : 0"

16-17 : 0"

17-18 : Probably 10", so in other words, 0" ​ 5.5"

 

 

# of times it was too warm and ended up being 33 and rain during these years : 20

# of times the storm essentially turned into dust: 25

# of times the storm looked at Nebraska and was like "yeah, good joke" , then ran to Chicago: 50


#65
Iowawx

Posted 01 September 2018 - 05:49 PM

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Radar is really lighting up across Eastern Iowa now. Lots of heavy rain in these storms. Getting closer to my area. Under a severe thunderstorm watch until 2:00AM. 

 

Should be a pretty active night around here.


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#66
Hawkeye

Posted 01 September 2018 - 06:02 PM

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Radar is really lighting up across Eastern Iowa now. Lots of heavy rain in these storms. Getting closer to my area. Under a severe thunderstorm watch until 2:00AM. 

 

Should be a pretty active night around here.

 

So far, it's working out about as well as last night.  A couple cells are passing nw of CR, and the big stuff is turning east and backbuilding well south/southwest of CR.


season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#67
Hawkeye

Posted 01 September 2018 - 06:11 PM

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Looks like torrential rain moving into Lincoln... should be fun at the stadium.


season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#68
jcwxguy

Posted 01 September 2018 - 06:15 PM

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Looks like torrential rain moving into Lincoln... should be fun at the stadium.

as a Event staff member, this stucks here
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#69
Iowawx

Posted 01 September 2018 - 06:27 PM

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So far, it's working out about as well as last night.  A couple cells are passing nw of CR, and the big stuff is turning east and backbuilding well south/southwest of CR.

Any reason to think this will change? There is just so much heavy rain on radar. Maybe that stuff around DSM can make it here.



#70
LNK_Weather

Posted 01 September 2018 - 06:30 PM

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We had the brunt of the severe winds in my part of Lincoln. Somehow my power only flickered but in most other areas of SE Lincoln the power is completely knocked out. Down to moderate rain and constant thunder now.


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>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 7.1"             Coldest Low: 7*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#71
Hawkeye

Posted 01 September 2018 - 06:39 PM

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Any reason to think this will change? There is just so much heavy rain on radar. Maybe that stuff around DSM can make it here.

 

The stuff in central Iowa is trying to lift northeast.  The disturbance in southeast Nebraska is also moving northeast.  The HRRR has been insisting all day that the Nebraska MCS will shoot northeastward across Iowa and pull the I-80 line quickly north across the area.  I'd be nice if some actual storms could move in and train for a bit.


season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#72
Iowawx

Posted 01 September 2018 - 06:45 PM

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The stuff in central Iowa is trying to lift northeast.  The disturbance in southeast Nebraska is also moving northeast.  The HRRR has been insisting all day that the Nebraska MCS will shoot northeastward across Iowa and pull the I-80 line quickly north across the area.  I'd be nice if some actual storms could move in and train for a bit.

I'm not sure I would trust the HRRR now. Today, it had heavy rain north of highway 20, that is obviously not happening now. 



#73
Illinois_WX

Posted 01 September 2018 - 06:46 PM

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We had the brunt of the severe winds in my part of Lincoln. Somehow my power only flickered but in most other areas of SE Lincoln the power is completely knocked out. Down to moderate rain and constant thunder now.



Holy ** balls you guys got rinsed. 80 mph winds reported by spotters?!? Give me the deets man!!!

LINCOLN NEBRASKA SNOW TOTALS:

 

 

13-14 : 0"

14-15: 0"

15-16" : 0"

16-17 : 0"

17-18 : Probably 10", so in other words, 0" ​ 5.5"

 

 

# of times it was too warm and ended up being 33 and rain during these years : 20

# of times the storm essentially turned into dust: 25

# of times the storm looked at Nebraska and was like "yeah, good joke" , then ran to Chicago: 50


#74
LNK_Weather

Posted 01 September 2018 - 06:51 PM

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Holy ** balls you guys got rinsed. 80 mph winds reported by spotters?!? Give me the deets man!!!


About 70 or so here. Was insane. Husker game has been cancelled.
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>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 7.1"             Coldest Low: 7*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#75
Illinois_WX

Posted 01 September 2018 - 07:02 PM

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About 70 or so here. Was insane. Husker game has been cancelled.



So Jealous dude!!!!!! Makes me wish I was back there. Get any good pics? I have some drunk friends snaps from the railyard and it looked insane

LINCOLN NEBRASKA SNOW TOTALS:

 

 

13-14 : 0"

14-15: 0"

15-16" : 0"

16-17 : 0"

17-18 : Probably 10", so in other words, 0" ​ 5.5"

 

 

# of times it was too warm and ended up being 33 and rain during these years : 20

# of times the storm essentially turned into dust: 25

# of times the storm looked at Nebraska and was like "yeah, good joke" , then ran to Chicago: 50


#76
Hawkeye

Posted 01 September 2018 - 07:08 PM

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The Iowa State game in Ames has also been canceled.

 

This is so frustrating.  Right now it's a carbon copy of last night.  Cedar Rapids is one to two counties downstream of nearly stationary, backbuilding storms, so we're stuck right in the heart of the subsidence.


season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#77
LNK_Weather

Posted 01 September 2018 - 07:09 PM

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Game has been postponed to 10:30 tomorrow morning. Looks like we'll be subjected to constant moderate rain all night tonight.

Also, the ABC station here has been knocked out.

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 7.1"             Coldest Low: 7*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#78
LNK_Weather

Posted 01 September 2018 - 07:47 PM

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Aaaaand game cancelled again.

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 7.1"             Coldest Low: 7*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#79
Hawkeye

Posted 01 September 2018 - 08:38 PM

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Sheesh.... worst-case for CR two straight nights.  The storms to the sw are not moving an inch, the subsidence is crushing any rain in the CR area, then as you go northeast away from the subsidence the rain and storms strengthen again.


season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#80
Iowawx

Posted 01 September 2018 - 08:42 PM

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Sheesh.... worst-case for CR two straight nights.  The storms to the sw are not moving an inch, the subsidence is crushing any rain in the CR area, then as you go northeast away from the subsidence the rain and storms strengthen again.

Are you ready to say this event will be a bust? There is still lots of rain in Central Iowa that is developing. 



#81
Hawkeye

Posted 01 September 2018 - 08:52 PM

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Are you ready to say this event will be a bust? There is still lots of rain in Central Iowa that is developing. 

 

Well, the stuff to the south isn't making any progress toward us.  The central Iowa storms are headed north.  I'm not optimistic we'll see anything but light to moderate rain.


season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#82
Tom

Posted 02 September 2018 - 02:44 AM

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Had a brief Tor Warning about 1/2 county south of me. Not sure if anything came of it tho? Still have some tame cells parading along 94 this evening.

 

attachicon.gif20180901 836 pm Radar snipit.PNG

I saw this image on Twitter from someone who captured the Tornado you were speaking of near the Kalamazoo Speedway...

 

DmDM8-aXsAAwTlJ.jpg


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#83
LNK_Weather

Posted 02 September 2018 - 04:28 AM

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The sun's trying to come out again. Shouldn't last long, though, as today looks to be a repeat of yesterday. Only this time, the ground is saturated here. 68.0*F.


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 7.1"             Coldest Low: 7*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#84
jaster220

Posted 02 September 2018 - 05:39 AM

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I saw this image on Twitter from someone who captured the Tornado you were speaking of near the Kalamazoo Speedway...

 

DmDM8-aXsAAwTlJ.jpg

 

Guess I was not in touch with this. I left the building (literally) to take my car that's normally in my driveway down to the concrete parking garage when I heard severe wx sirens going off (there's one at the end of my street 2 doors down so you can't miss it, lol) and saw the warning issued for 60 mph winds and likely hail damage to vehicles. But that warning was for Marshall and SE. Then my daughter said a short while later that there was also a Tor Warning and I presumed it was for that same portion of the cell SOUTH of Marshall that had prompted the TStorm Warning. Apparently it wasn't. It was for this scary lowering rotation to my west in Kzoo county:

 

 

Poring thru GRR's storm reports, there's zero reports of damage from this or even any funnel sightings, so I don't think an actual tornado formed, but it was a massive rotating shelf cloud (a lot like our May of 2011 funnel blow-down event) and could've been really bad had it indeed become a fully formed twister. 


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#85
Hawkeye

Posted 02 September 2018 - 05:53 AM

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I only picked up a lousy 0.12" of rain last night.  We're 0 for 2 this weekend.  Tonight is chance #3.

 

The sun's trying to come out again. Shouldn't last long, though, as today looks to be a repeat of yesterday. Only this time, the ground is saturated here. 68.0*F.

 

How much rain did you get?  Radar shows you got another nice batch overnight.


season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#86
jaster220

Posted 02 September 2018 - 06:01 AM

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Several Tornado Warnings were issued Saturday across Southwest Michigan by the National Weather Service in Grand Rapids. It began in northern Kalamazoo and southwestern Barry Counties as tornado alerts were issued for some dangerous storms that popped up in the late afternoon. Shortly later, a Tornado Warning was issued for southern Calhoun County which remained in effect until 8:15. After that, all counties in the southwest Michigan area had been cleared of any severe weather warnings. Farther north, Mecosta County also was under a Tornado Warning this evening around the same time.

 

The bolded is the warning I was aware of. If there indeed was an earlier warning for the other counties, I did not see that when I checked the CWA headlines for the closer hail warned storm. Looks like little or no damage was reported from that scary massive rotation near the race track. A shed tipped and tree damage. Story said NWS will be surveying for whether there was an actual tornado or not? Meanwhile, that cell that popped up over Marshall and headed east brought 3+ inches of rain to Jackson in a short period causing some major flooding in a low spot of I-94 and forced closure of the westbound side there. Also, I see thousands without power in and around Grand Rapids this morning, so we may not hear from WMJim for a bit. 

 

Warmest summer on record (since 1888) for Sault Saint Marie in the UP. Top 10 warmest in all other major cities across NMI, and it finished with a bang as they had (6) damaging tornados on Tuesday evening and lots of damaging winds and knocked out power lines in the forested areas. (2 tor's were in the GRR coverage region).

 

Attached File  20180901 APX summer wx graphic.PNG   246.8KB   0 downloads


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#87
Niko

Posted 02 September 2018 - 06:18 AM

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@ Niko

 

Looks like Macomb scored earlier on the first wave of T-storms that managed to whiff me over here. How'd you make out?

To be honest, I had no idea t'stms were coming towards my area, as I was attending a wedding at the time. Suddenly, looking out the church windows, all branches on the trees were blowing sideways and torrential rain falling. No thunder. Just wind and very heavy rain. Then, it eventually stopped. Afterwards at the reception, went outside to get some fresh air w a buddy of mine and it was pouring again w strong breezes. So, to sum it up, I'd say, Ma Nature provided some needed water. Yayyy...no sprinklers today.


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#88
Niko

Posted 02 September 2018 - 06:20 AM

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If this misses me, I'll cry UNCLE! 

 

attachicon.gif20180901 555 pm Radar snipit.PNG

:lol:


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#89
LNK_Weather

Posted 02 September 2018 - 06:43 AM

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I only picked up a lousy 0.12" of rain last night.  We're 0 for 2 this weekend.  Tonight is chance #3.

 

 

How much rain did you get?  Radar shows you got another nice batch overnight.

About 2.5" on my side of Lincoln. The airport got less.

 

Looks like the training band of storms may set up just South of Lincoln tonight. That's good if you're concerned about flooding here.


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 7.1"             Coldest Low: 7*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#90
Niko

Posted 02 September 2018 - 07:53 AM

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Its a sunny to mostly sunny day out there. Hot is the key word w temps getting into the 90s. Same goes for tomorrow.



#91
james1976

Posted 02 September 2018 - 09:48 AM

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My totals so far since this pattern started:
Thu nite: 0.33"
Fri nite: 0.58"
Sat nite: 0.48"


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#92
Cfweather

Posted 02 September 2018 - 10:38 AM

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My totals so far since this pattern started:
Thu nite: 0.33"
Fri nite: 0.58"
Sat nite: 0.48"


It depends so much on where you are. I’m not far from you and we had 3 1/2 from Friday night alone. Not as much last night I don’t think.

#93
Iowawx

Posted 02 September 2018 - 10:39 AM

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I only picked up a lousy 0.12" of rain last night. We're 0 for 2 this weekend. Tonight is chance #3.


How much rain did you get? Radar shows you got another nice batch overnight.


How are trends looking for CR so far today? I picked up 0.37 inches of rain last night. A thin band of heavy rain moves through my area around 10:00pm last night.

#94
Hawkeye

Posted 02 September 2018 - 12:03 PM

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How are trends looking for CR so far today? I picked up 0.37 inches of rain last night. A thin band of heavy rain moves through my area around 10:00pm last night.

 

There's a boundary from sw to ne Iowa.  The ne and sw ends are firing good storms, but so far there's not much in between.  Models suggest this boundary will push through the area and stall to the southeast.  The question is will the line fill in before passing by.


season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#95
OKwx2k4

Posted 02 September 2018 - 12:38 PM

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Guess I was not in touch with this. I left the building (literally) to take my car that's normally in my driveway down to the concrete parking garage when I heard severe wx sirens going off (there's one at the end of my street 2 doors down so you can't miss it, lol) and saw the warning issued for 60 mph winds and likely hail damage to vehicles. But that warning was for Marshall and SE. Then my daughter said a short while later that there was also a Tor Warning and I presumed it was for that same portion of the cell SOUTH of Marshall that had prompted the TStorm Warning. Apparently it wasn't. It was for this scary lowering rotation to my west in Kzoo county:



Poring thru GRR's storm reports, there's zero reports of damage from this or even any funnel sightings, so I don't think an actual tornado formed, but it was a massive rotating shelf cloud (a lot like our May of 2011 funnel blow-down event) and could've been really bad had it indeed become a fully formed twister.


That is a pure beauty of a storm though. Beautiful.
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#96
james1976

Posted 02 September 2018 - 12:45 PM

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Just dumped out another 0.50" from the mid day round.
1.89" total so far with this frontal boundary since Thursday night.



#97
OKwx2k4

Posted 02 September 2018 - 12:59 PM

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Please come true. :) This will make it Autumn for real.

Attached File  gfs_T2m_us_41.png   180.9KB   0 downloads
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#98
Iowawx

Posted 02 September 2018 - 01:07 PM

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There's a boundary from sw to ne Iowa.  The ne and sw ends are firing good storms, but so far there's not much in between.  Models suggest this boundary will push through the area and stall to the southeast.  The question is will the line fill in before passing by.

 

Radar looks good for our area, don't you think?



#99
Hawkeye

Posted 02 September 2018 - 01:26 PM

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Radar looks good for our area, don't you think?

 

Well, there's a decent line to the west.  However, it's not really pushing east.  It may be a scenario where the outflow pushes through and little cells bubble up behind the boundary.  Some spots may get a nice downpour, while others miss out.


season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#100
Iowawx

Posted 02 September 2018 - 02:50 PM

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Got about 0.72 inches of rain from the storms that moved through in the past hour. May add a bit more to that with an area of light to moderate rain moving in. 

 

HRRR suggests that we may get a lull in the storms later this evening and into the early morning hours. Then, storms really get going along highway 30 by daybreak tomorrow.