September 2018 Observations and Discussion

[james1976]

Tom is MIA. Hope everything is well!

[Tom]

Tom is MIA. Hope everything is well!

All is good bud! Just staying very busy.

[OKwx2k4]

Tom is MIA. Hope everything is well!

I think he mentioned he was going to be away for a few days. I'm not 100 percent sure though.

[CentralNebWeather]

85 degrees with heat index of 89 with a 67 dew at 6:45 pm on September 13th. I was done with this weather weeks ago. Tomorrow pushing 90+. Now the cool down next week has been tempered with still some 80 degree weather. Hoping end of the month into October gives us the long awaited cool shot.

[CentralNebWeather]

90F and humid Saturday and Sunday. Gross. The Euro called it early last week up this way. Thought the 90s might be confined to the Dakotas but apparently not.

 

It is here now. When I saw low clouds streaming in from the south this morning I knew the humidity was returning with a vengeance. Only saving grace is a strong southerly wind.

[OKwx2k4]

Haha. I guess Tom and I posted at the exact same time earlier.

[Tom]

Happy Friday!  #TGIF  Wow, Hurricane Florence's eye is making landfall in Willmington, NC.  Jim Cantore seems to always find a way to be near the epicenter of these ferocious systems.  I'd like to experience being in the "eye" of a Hurricane.  That would be a surreal experience.  Meantime, I've been enjoying this stretch of fantastic late summer weather around here.  I have plans to head  out on Lake Michigan and hopefully pull some big King Salmon out of the water.  

[Tom]

It's been a busy morning and I've digested a lot of encouraging data that we finish this month off on a chilly note.  Possible 1st flakes in the northern sub???  Some important clues on how the new LRC may be rolling out.  Folks, my research and studies of the key placements as to where both the 10mb/30mb warming occurs, is lining up quite well in the modeling.

 

Last nights 06z GEFS paint the picture across the N PAC that the overall hemispheric pattern will snap into an amplified one to close out the month.  Look at the Aleutian Low, along with the Hudson Bay vortex both grow in tandem towards the end of the animation below...that's a beauty of a 500mb pattern to kick start the opening of Oct???  Sign me up...the trough near the Aleutians is fitting of where the 30mb cooling is beginning....it "fits" the clues where we should expect to see a trough!  #Nature

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp30anim.gif

 

 

[OKwx2k4]

It's been a busy morning and I've digested a lot of encouraging data that we finish this month off on a chilly note. Possible 1st flakes in the northern sub??? Some important clues on how the new LRC may be rolling out. Folks, my research and studies of the key placements as to where both the 10mb/30mb warming occurs, is lining up quite well in the modeling.

 

Last nights 06z GEFS paint the picture across the N PAC that the overall hemispheric pattern will snap into an amplified one to close out the month. Look at the Aleutian Low, along with the Hudson Bay vortex both grow in tandem towards the end of the animation below...that's a beauty of a 500mb pattern to kick start the opening of Oct??? Sign me up...the trough near the Aleutians is fitting of where the 30mb cooling is beginning....it "fits" the clues where we should expect to see a trough! #Nature

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp30anim.gif

Look at that Aleutian low. Beautiful.

[Minny_Weather]

Third straight year a tropical system has thrown a wrench into everything and has made for 90s in the middle of September. This sucks.

[Minny_Weather]

Florence just made landfall in the barrier islands near Wilmington, NC. Torrential rain continues in NC.

[jaster220]

Florence just made landfall in the barrier islands near Wilmington, NC. Torrential rain continues in NC.

 

She has, but as a rather yaaawn worthy CAT-1 system after all the hype that she might be a CAT-4+ at LF. This happened last year in FL as well, only a small region of the Keys ended up with the Major 'Caine conditions. I'm not minimizing the suffering of the area as much as being critical of the hype-sters. 

[OKwx2k4]

She has, but as a rather yaaawn worthy CAT-1 system after all the hype that she might be a CAT-4+ at LF. This happened last year in FL as well, only a small region of the Keys ended up with the Major 'Caine conditions. I'm not minimizing the suffering of the area as much as being critical of the hype-sters.

Agree.

[Minny_Weather]

She has, but as a rather yaaawn worthy CAT-1 system after all the hype that she might be a CAT-4+ at LF. This happened last year in FL as well, only a small region of the Keys ended up with the Major 'Caine conditions. I'm not minimizing the suffering of the area as much as being critical of the hype-sters. 

To be fair, the hype was caused by the rain potential, not necessarily the wind. The rain is living up to the expectations.

[Hawkeye]

It appears we'll be very warm and humid for the next five days.  I was hoping we were done with that.

[BrianJK]

She has, but as a rather yaaawn worthy CAT-1 system after all the hype that she might be a CAT-4+ at LF. This happened last year in FL as well, only a small region of the Keys ended up with the Major 'Caine conditions. I'm not minimizing the suffering of the area as much as being critical of the hype-sters.

Agreed. How many “Storms of a lifetime” can we have?

[OKwx2k4]

To be fair, the hype was caused by the rain potential, not necessarily the wind. The rain is living up to the expectations.

This is true as well. I still agree that the hype associated with these things is misused and excessive.

[jaster220]

Agreed. How many “Storms of a lifetime” can we have?

 

NPR this morning had a reporter doing interviews of residents and the reporter kept saying "but, but, this is a storm of unprecedented magnitude! aren't you concerned??" This person had ridden out all but the truly bad hurricanes in that region; David in '79, Hugo in '89, and another one in '99. (Something about storms in years ending in 9 there). After Harvey, I don't see how this qualifies as "unprecedented", even on the rainfall side of things. 

[Stormgeek]

It appears we'll be very warm and humid for the next five days.  I was hoping we were done with that.

This. I have had enough hot and humidity for this year AND next.

[jaster220]

To be fair, the hype was caused by the rain potential, not necessarily the wind. The rain is living up to the expectations.

 

You could read it that way, but she really weakened more on the pressure/wind side of things. Just 2 or 3 days ago, the NOAA h72 cone map had it as a Major just off the coast, which obviously was a "miss" on their part from that range. Remains to be seen if the evacuation pains and costs were worth it along the immediate coast? 

[Minny_Weather]

You could read it that way, but she really weakened more on the pressure/wind side of things. Just 2 or 3 days ago, the NOAA h72 cone map had it as a Major just off the coast, which obviously was a "miss" on their part from that range. Remains to be seen if the evacuation pains and costs were worth it along the immediate coast?

Storm surge was still fairly significant. Not as bad as forecasted but evacuations were necessary.

[james1976]

Yeah the heat is way old now. We can thank Florence for adding to it.

[CentralNebWeather]

We just got done with our school’s homecoming parade. It felt like the middle of summer. Temp of 87 dew of 70 and heat index of 92. Yuck.

[Niko]

A sunny afternoon some clouds around and temps certainly warmed up. A tad humid as well.

[Niko]

From a CAT4 hitting the Carolina's, it went to CAT1 as landfall. That goes to show you that they have no idea what the heck will happen. Its all a guessing game. It was suppose to strengthen and that never happened. It was the opposite. It was weakening as it was heading towards the Carolina's.   Well, the good thing is that less damage is likely w a CAT1, rather than a CAT4. I bet there will be some really angry residents down there w the weather forecasters.

[Niko]

NPR this morning had a reporter doing interviews of residents and the reporter kept saying "but, but, this is a storm of unprecedented magnitude! aren't you concerned??" This person had ridden out all but the truly bad hurricanes in that region; David in '79, Hugo in '89, and another one in '99. (Something about storms in years ending in 9 there). After Harvey, I don't see how this qualifies as "unprecedented", even on the rainfall side of things. 

Its all about "Hype". Plain n simple!

[westMJim]

She has, but as a rather yaaawn worthy CAT-1 system after all the hype that she might be a CAT-4+ at LF. This happened last year in FL as well, only a small region of the Keys ended up with the Major 'Caine conditions. I'm not minimizing the suffering of the area as much as being critical of the hype-sters. 

The sad part is that people who live in that area may think that the hype is(was) the real thing and the next time a real Cat 4+ storm might indeed hit and instead of leaving they may stay. The most damage this time should be from the flooding and there will be many who do not have flood insurance and be in a bad situation 

[westMJim]

Agreed. How many “Storms of a lifetime” can we have?

When one really happens will people believe it? 

[Niko]

The sad part is that people who live in that area may think that the hype is(was) the real thing and the next time a real Cat 4+ storm might indeed hit and instead of leaving they may stay. The most damage this time should be from the flooding and there will be many who do not have flood insurance and be in a bad situation 

Yes, flooding is the only main issue w this CAT1. Unfortunately, there have been a few deaths from this storm resulting from flooding.

[westMJim]

In looking at the rain fall records for eastern North and South Carolina to see how Florence will compare.  At this time the records for several locations in both Carolina’s came in September 1999 when two storms hit the area a couple weeks apart. The storms Floyd and Dennis. Here are some records from the two storms as several locations.

 Wilminston SC 23.41”  Myrtle Beach 23.05” Raleigh NC 21.79” Many other locations seen rain fall amounts of between 14 and 20” we will have to see how this storm compares.

[St Paul Storm]

85/70 now. Heat indices up to 95 tomorrow. The low tonight and tomorrow night might not break 70F. I can’t, I just can’t. It’s mid September.

[james1976]

Nice pattern change showing up on GFS post 20th.

[St Paul Storm]

Heat advisory for the metro today. Heat index up to 99 this afternoon. Wowzers.

[Niko]

Man, it feels like mid July. Its beautiful outside though. Humidity is cranking up as well. Cant wait for Florence to get outta the way. Thats when the chilly air arrives.

[Niko]

The Weather Channel should put out a public apology over this disgraceful "reporting". These reporters are a bunch of actors and bad ones too. Shame on them!

 

[St Paul Storm]

TWC is such a joke. This will certainly add to the ‘fake news’ era we currently live in. They became a joke when Cantore lost his during the GHD I thundersnow in Chicago.

[St Paul Storm]

88/72 at noon. Might blow past the forecasted high of 92.

[Minny_Weather]

I miss what TWC was when I was a kid. Now they're a climate agenda-pushing, weather-focused extension of NBC. Their founder would hate what it is now.

[james1976]

The Weather Channel should put out a public apology over this disgraceful "reporting". These reporters are a bunch of actors and bad ones too. Shame on them!

 

haha that's floating around facebook. I shared it lol

[james1976]

Honestly though, Florence has claimed 6 lives and up to 30" of rain has already fallen. So its definitely a horrible situation over there.