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September 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

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#51
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 01 September 2018 - 10:52 PM

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2 of the PNW schools had a fun day beating up on cupcakes, the other 2 played extremely difficult games and came out on the short end, the conference is always a grind, I just hope there is at least 1 good snow game (most likely in Pullman, Salt Lake, or Boulder)

Springfield, Oregon cold season 18-19 Stats:

Coldest high: 48 (Nov 8)
Coldest low: 27 (Nov 11)
Total snowfall: 0"
Last accumulating snowfall: February 21-22, 2018
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 1985

Personal Stats:

Last accumulating snowfall: March 6, 2017
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 2008

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope


#52
Farmboy

Posted 02 September 2018 - 07:45 AM

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Pretty stout little ridge coming on the heels of next weekend's trough on the 6z. Last night's 0z GFS showed a ridge too, just not as robust.

Heat waves in the summer, Arctic outbreaks in the winter!


#53
TT-SEA

Posted 02 September 2018 - 08:41 AM

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Pretty stout little ridge coming on the heels of next weekend's trough on the 6z. Last night's 0z GFS showed a ridge too, just not as robust.

 

 

12Z GFS shows some rain primarily in WA on Friday into Saturday and then shows it turning warm and sunny again starting Sunday through at least Wednesday.



#54
Jesse

Posted 02 September 2018 - 08:45 AM

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12Z GFS shows some rain primarily in WA on Friday into Saturday and then shows it turning warm and sunny again starting Sunday through at least Wednesday.


What about the Euro? 😇

#55
Jesse

Posted 02 September 2018 - 08:46 AM

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There also hasn’t been an EPS run to speak of for days. So strange...

#56
TT-SEA

Posted 02 September 2018 - 08:51 AM

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There also hasn’t been an EPS run to speak of for days. So strange...

Have not checked it. Its lost some meaning to me since it has over-promised troughing numerous times in the last month and seems to flip-flop more frequently. Maybe its the seasonal change?

What happened to our deep Labor Day weekend trough? We are heading out on the water today. And not on the east side of the mountains. ;)

#57
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 02 September 2018 - 08:55 AM

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Have not checked it. Its lost some meaning to me since it has over-promised troughing numerous times in the last month and seems to flip-flop more frequently. Maybe its the seasonal change?

What happened to our deep Labor Day weekend trough? We are heading out on the water today. And not on the east side of the mountains. ;)


What happens to any of the troughs or cooldowns that are advertised anymore?

Springfield, Oregon cold season 18-19 Stats:

Coldest high: 48 (Nov 8)
Coldest low: 27 (Nov 11)
Total snowfall: 0"
Last accumulating snowfall: February 21-22, 2018
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 1985

Personal Stats:

Last accumulating snowfall: March 6, 2017
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 2008

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope


#58
TT-SEA

Posted 02 September 2018 - 08:56 AM

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Also remember this upcoming week looked very troughy on the EPS and other models just a few days ago.

Not so much now.

#59
TT-SEA

Posted 02 September 2018 - 09:02 AM

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What happens to any of the troughs or cooldowns that are advertised anymore?

There are times when ridging is promised and it always seems to become deep troughing. Last spring for example.

We have the opposite right now. So I look for the first sign of the troughing being gutted in the models because that usually becomes the reality.

This will change again and troughing will be the default winner again. Maybe soon. But I will have to wait and see it happen before I start assuming that all ridging in the models will ultimately fail.

Right now I assume all troughing will be weaker than shown and ridging will pop up as it gets closer.   For now.



#60
TT-SEA

Posted 02 September 2018 - 09:22 AM

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WRF now only shows a brief period of morning clouds tomorrow and the GFS MOS shows a high in the mid 70s. I was resigned to the fact that tomorrow would be cool and cloudy and a little wet just a couple days ago. Now tomorrow afternoon looks beautiful.

#61
TT-SEA

Posted 02 September 2018 - 10:47 AM

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12Z ECMWF agrees with GFS on precip... rain on Friday night into Saturday mainly for WA.     And also shows a pretty nice day on Sunday.    But then deviates from the GFS with a second rain event on Monday again and more rain in Oregon with that system.  



#62
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 02 September 2018 - 10:52 AM

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12Z ECMWF agrees with GFS on precip... rain on Friday night into Saturday mainly for WA. And also shows a pretty nice day on Sunday. But then deviates from the GFS with a second rain event on Monday again and more rain in Oregon with that system.


Still over a week out though. One of these frontal systems has to eventually punch through that Coast Range shadow.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 18-19 Stats:

Coldest high: 48 (Nov 8)
Coldest low: 27 (Nov 11)
Total snowfall: 0"
Last accumulating snowfall: February 21-22, 2018
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 1985

Personal Stats:

Last accumulating snowfall: March 6, 2017
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 2008

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope


#63
Jesse

Posted 02 September 2018 - 10:59 AM

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12Z ECMWF agrees with GFS on precip... rain on Friday night into Saturday mainly for WA. And also shows a pretty nice day on Sunday. But then deviates from the GFS with a second rain event on Monday again and more rain in Oregon with that system.


Looks more like the GFS ensembles.

#64
Jesse

Posted 02 September 2018 - 11:02 AM

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Attached File  7F8BF015-A614-4D51-90A3-94AE385DC6E5.png   26.06KB   2 downloads
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#65
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 02 September 2018 - 11:15 AM

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7F8BF015-A614-4D51-90A3-94AE385DC6E5.png


Within 7 days now!

Springfield, Oregon cold season 18-19 Stats:

Coldest high: 48 (Nov 8)
Coldest low: 27 (Nov 11)
Total snowfall: 0"
Last accumulating snowfall: February 21-22, 2018
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 1985

Personal Stats:

Last accumulating snowfall: March 6, 2017
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 2008

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope


#66
Jesse

Posted 02 September 2018 - 11:18 AM

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Within 7 days now!


Watch that blue member verify now. ;)

#67
TT-SEA

Posted 02 September 2018 - 11:30 AM

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Total precip per the 12Z ECMWF...

 

ecmwf_tprecip_nw_41_1.png


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#68
TT-SEA

Posted 02 September 2018 - 11:32 AM

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Looks more like the GFS ensembles.

 

That seems sort of meaningless as well.  

 

This entire weekend and next week looked fairly troughy at one point.    Any model showing less troughiness and rain has been the winner lately... no matter what the GFS ensembles and EPS have said.

 

Has to change eventually... but won't believe until I see it.



#69
Deweydog

Posted 02 September 2018 - 12:28 PM

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Airplane is quite possibly the greatest movie ever made.
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All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#70
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 02 September 2018 - 12:57 PM

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Another beautiful day in the Central Willamette Valley. Low to mid 80s. Currently 81F. Longest dry streak in our history.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 18-19 Stats:

Coldest high: 48 (Nov 8)
Coldest low: 27 (Nov 11)
Total snowfall: 0"
Last accumulating snowfall: February 21-22, 2018
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 1985

Personal Stats:

Last accumulating snowfall: March 6, 2017
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 2008

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope


#71
ShawniganLake

Posted 02 September 2018 - 12:59 PM

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Total precip per the 12Z ECMWF...

ecmwf_tprecip_nw_41_1.png

That looks about equivalent to what we’ve seen in the last 5 months combined.
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#72
Jesse

Posted 02 September 2018 - 01:00 PM

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Gorgeous day.

#73
TT-SEA

Posted 02 September 2018 - 01:29 PM

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Gorgeous day.

Indeed!

In line at Lake Sammamish boat launch... busy out here. :)

20180902_143632.jpg

#74
TT-SEA

Posted 02 September 2018 - 03:09 PM

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Beautiful day...

20180902_160009.jpg
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#75
Jesse

Posted 02 September 2018 - 04:27 PM

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Looks like the GFS is sticking to its guns with digging the second low offshore around day 7. This seems to lead to a scorching long range in every run that has done it.

#76
Jesse

Posted 02 September 2018 - 04:32 PM

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EPS and Euro also sticking to their guns, as well as the GFS ensembles. Although I can’t help but still remember when the operational GFS totally lead the way in killing that early August troughy period.
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#77
Jginmartini

Posted 02 September 2018 - 06:12 PM

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76/48 today
Beautiful day at the Fair
Blast of Arctic air please

#78
TT-SEA

Posted 02 September 2018 - 07:33 PM

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76/48 today
Beautiful day at the Fair

78 in Issaquah on the lake... light wind too. Just perfect.

And so nice to be able to see the other side of the lake unlike last time in the smoke.



#79
Tyler Mode

Posted 02 September 2018 - 07:49 PM

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Wow!  What an amazing day!  43 for a low and 80 for a high.  One reason I love September.  Not as much as October, but close.



#80
MossMan

Posted 02 September 2018 - 07:58 PM

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Getting kind of breezy out.

#81
Jginmartini

Posted 02 September 2018 - 08:11 PM

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78 in Issaquah on the lake... light wind too. Just perfect.
And so nice to be able to see the other side of the lake unlike last time in the smoke.


I’m glad the smoke is history. I feel clean again
Blast of Arctic air please

#82
ShawniganLake

Posted 02 September 2018 - 08:13 PM

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I’m glad the smoke is history. I feel clean again

Was smoky here at times today. Visibility was okay but there was a strong smell of it.

#83
Deweydog

Posted 02 September 2018 - 08:16 PM

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30 years ago today was hott.

It cooled off considerably exactly five months later.

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#84
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 02 September 2018 - 08:21 PM

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Yeah that AR was ridiculous and IIRC the "firehose" was really narrow. I was on the northern periphery of it and Eugene was in the bullseye. There were like 7 fumbles in the 1st quarter.


That game was frustrating to watch with all the fumbles but Oregon was too good they still kicked Cals a**. Then a litte over 2 months later they got pounded with an Arctic Blast and snow.
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#85
TT-SEA

Posted 02 September 2018 - 08:22 PM

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00Z GFS still building in the ridge after the system on Friday and Saturday. 00Z GEM trending that way now as well.

#86
ShawniganLake

Posted 02 September 2018 - 08:28 PM

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00Z GFS still building in the ridge after the system on Friday and Saturday. 00Z GEM trending that way now as well.

GEM looks quite warm next week now. When did the operational GFS become such a trend setter

#87
Jesse

Posted 02 September 2018 - 08:34 PM

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GEM looks quite warm next week now. When did the operational GFS become such a trend setter


The GEM only runs when it’s warm

#88
TT-SEA

Posted 02 September 2018 - 08:43 PM

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The GEM only runs when it’s warm

 

 

I guess that makes sense since PDX has been below normal on only 23 of the last 140 days... only 17% of the days since the middle of April. 

 

Probably best to just go with the warm model on any given day.    Works out better.   Odds are in your favor.  



#89
Jesse

Posted 02 September 2018 - 08:44 PM

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I guess that makes sense since PDX has been below normal on only 23 of the last 140 days... only 17% of the days since the middle of April.


No it doesn’t. That would mean it ran cool 17% of the time, assuming it was accurate (it usually isn’t).

#90
Jesse

Posted 02 September 2018 - 08:46 PM

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The second week of September looks downright hellish on the 00z GFS. Probably a resurgence in the fire season if things go that way. Expect it to verify.

#91
TT-SEA

Posted 02 September 2018 - 08:48 PM

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The second week of September looks downright hellish on the 00z GFS. Probably a resurgence in the fire season if things go that way. Expect it to verify.

 

Yeah... feels like its going to win this time.  


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#92
TT-SEA

Posted 02 September 2018 - 08:49 PM

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No it doesn’t. That would mean it ran cool 17% of the time, assuming it was accurate (it usually isn’t).

 

 

Maybe it was still the warmest model though.  



#93
Deweydog

Posted 02 September 2018 - 08:49 PM

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I can feel it coming in the air tonight.

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#94
Jesse

Posted 02 September 2018 - 08:50 PM

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Maybe it was still the warmest model though.


It was way too cool most of the summer. Missed the majority the big heatwaves.

#95
BLI snowman

Posted 02 September 2018 - 08:57 PM

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Looks like the rain mostly misses us on the GFS. Another bone dry month?

I think January next year is either going to go down like 1953 or 1930.

#96
TT-SEA

Posted 02 September 2018 - 09:02 PM

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Looks like the rain mostly misses us on the GFS. Another bone dry month?

I think January next year is either going to go down like 1953 or 1930.

 

Could be.

 

Throw in 2006 as well.   



#97
ShawniganLake

Posted 02 September 2018 - 09:07 PM

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Looks like the rain mostly misses us on the GFS. Another bone dry month?

I think January next year is either going to go down like 1953 or 1930.

1953 seems infinitely more likely than a 1930 redo

#98
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 02 September 2018 - 09:18 PM

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1953 seems infinitely more likely than a 1930 redo


Should I look either of these up or are they too depressing?

Springfield, Oregon cold season 18-19 Stats:

Coldest high: 48 (Nov 8)
Coldest low: 27 (Nov 11)
Total snowfall: 0"
Last accumulating snowfall: February 21-22, 2018
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 1985

Personal Stats:

Last accumulating snowfall: March 6, 2017
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 2008

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope


#99
Jesse

Posted 02 September 2018 - 09:31 PM

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Should I look either of these up or are they too depressing?


1930 was definitely during a depression.

#100
ShawniganLake

Posted 02 September 2018 - 09:32 PM

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Should I look either of these up or are they too depressing?

‘30 was an ice box but dry up here. ‘53 was a wet hot mess.