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September 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

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#101
ShawniganLake

Posted 02 September 2018 - 09:34 PM

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No ensemble support for that 0z gfs operational

#102
Jesse

Posted 02 September 2018 - 09:37 PM

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Craziness.

Attached File  ADB9B856-1978-43AE-B4DB-50DAC7617EFB.png   25.78KB   0 downloads

#103
TT-SEA

Posted 02 September 2018 - 10:39 PM

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ECMWF looked like it might be backing off... but its actually more troughy by Sunday than previous runs. 

 

Total rain just through next Sunday... this is more than the 12Z run through that time. 

 

ecmwf_tprecip_nw_31.png



#104
Deweydog

Posted 02 September 2018 - 10:45 PM

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Jesse had yet to post about Tim not posting about the Euro. It must be a _________ run.

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#105
Jesse

Posted 02 September 2018 - 10:47 PM

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Jesse had yet to post about Tim not posting about the Euro. It must be a _________ run.


Good. ;)

#106
Jesse

Posted 02 September 2018 - 10:49 PM

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Fully expected the Euro to cave to the operational GFS tonight. Maybe tomorrow.

#107
Jesse

Posted 02 September 2018 - 10:51 PM

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Euro did back off on the depth of the troughing in the 7-10 day range. But that is still a lot different than having the trough offshore with a 590dm ridge over us next week like the GFS does.

#108
Front Ranger

Posted 02 September 2018 - 11:48 PM

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Humid and warm with some rain in Split, Croatia.

Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#109
WeatherArchive

Posted 03 September 2018 - 04:12 AM

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That seems sort of meaningless as well.  

 

This entire weekend and next week looked fairly troughy at one point.    Any model showing less troughiness and rain has been the winner lately... no matter what the GFS ensembles and EPS have said.

 

Has to change eventually... but won't believe until I see it.

Change it had to come. knew it all along!https://www.youtube....h?v=SHhrZgojY1QWon't Get Fooled Again



#110
WeatherArchive

Posted 03 September 2018 - 04:18 AM

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EPS and Euro also sticking to their guns, as well as the GFS ensembles. Although I can’t help but still remember when the operational GFS totally lead the way in killing that early August troughy period.

GFS  has gotten a new satellite in 2016 since then less drunk runs and  NOAA had a super computer upgrade this year..         http://www.noaa.gov/...our-dimensional                   obviously it has the correct information about the earth changes.  The Euro better catch up as investors and companies pay for it.http://www.noaa.gov/...omputer-upgrade

 

A model is programmed by humans and isn't magic. there is too much reliance on models these days and this society bucks when things don't go their way.  we need old skool science and local climatologists with no political spins as a comeback



#111
TT-SEA

Posted 03 September 2018 - 06:49 AM

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Sun is already breaking through here this morning... going to be a really nice day.

 

nb_9-3.png


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#112
TT-SEA

Posted 03 September 2018 - 06:57 AM

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06Z GFS took a big step towards the ECMWF.



#113
Jginmartini

Posted 03 September 2018 - 07:19 AM

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Humid and warm with some rain in Split, Croatia.

.

Your close to Medjugorje! My brother has done a few trips there
Blast of Arctic air please

#114
TT-SEA

Posted 03 September 2018 - 08:09 AM

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12Z GFS basically took away any meaningful rain even for WA with the Friday night and Saturday system.    Its pretty much washed out on arrival and the ridge is building in on Sunday.



#115
TT-SEA

Posted 03 September 2018 - 08:24 AM

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But the 12Z GFS is very different for next week... more like the ECMWF.

#116
Phil

Posted 03 September 2018 - 08:35 AM

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OT, but it wouldn’t shock me if Gordon makes landfall as a Category 2+ hurricane. Tiny circulations like this one can undergo rapid intensification more easily than larger ones. #ConservationOfAngularMomentum

Plus conditions aloft are pretty ideal, and the Gulf has a history of being an RI hotspot.
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#117
Phil

Posted 03 September 2018 - 08:37 AM

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FWIW, the soil moisture content has actually improved in the PNW this year, compared to this time last year
qfo57EL.jpg
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...pwsdash#history

#118
Farmboy

Posted 03 September 2018 - 08:41 AM

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It would be nice if these models could go one way or the other for once instead of being so wishy washy.

Heat waves in the summer, Arctic outbreaks in the winter!


#119
Jginmartini

Posted 03 September 2018 - 09:01 AM

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OT, but it wouldn’t shock me if Gordon makes landfall as a Category 2+ hurricane. Tiny circulations like this one can undergo rapid intensification more easily than larger ones. #ConservationOfAngularMomentum
Plus conditions aloft are pretty ideal, and the Gulf has a history of being an RI hotspot.


So Gorden needs to pull it’s little arms inward to begin a tighter vorticity
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Blast of Arctic air please

#120
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 03 September 2018 - 09:12 AM

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I feel like the Gorton's fisherman food company could sue for it being a bit too close to their name, though I suppose both fu(k things up for fish.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 18-19 Stats:

Coldest high: 48 (Nov 8)
Coldest low: 27 (Nov 11)
Total snowfall: 0"
Last accumulating snowfall: February 21-22, 2018
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 1985

Personal Stats:

Last accumulating snowfall: March 6, 2017
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 2008

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope


#121
Kayla

Posted 03 September 2018 - 09:16 AM

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FWIW, the soil moisture content has actually improved in the PNW this year, compared to this time last year

 

This isn't a comparison map though. Do you have access to the 2017 map showing less moisture at this time? 


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Cold Season 2018/19:

Total snowfall: 23.0"
Highest daily snowfall: 7.0"

Highest snow depth: 7.0"

Coldest high: 26.6º
Coldest low: 4.6º

Number of subzero days: 0

 

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...OZEM152#history


#122
MossMan

Posted 03 September 2018 - 09:54 AM

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Getting warm! Nice day!! I thought today was supposed to be a little more on the crappy side?

#123
Phil

Posted 03 September 2018 - 09:55 AM

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This isn't a comparison map though. Do you have access to the 2017 map showing less moisture at this time?


Ah, forgot to post that. Will grab it.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...pwsdash#history

#124
TT-SEA

Posted 03 September 2018 - 09:57 AM

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Getting warm! Nice day!! I thought today was supposed to be a little more on the crappy side?


It is absolutely gorgeous here... almost entirely cleared out and warming up nicely.

Perfect Labor Day despite many model runs that looked pretty nasty over the last 10 days. :)

20180903_111017.jpg

#125
Phil

Posted 03 September 2018 - 09:59 AM

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Getting warm! Nice day!! I thought today was supposed to be a little more on the crappy side?


Getting warm! Crappy day!! I thought today was supposed to be a little less on the crappy side? 🤬

74l6o1X.jpg
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Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...pwsdash#history

#126
TT-SEA

Posted 03 September 2018 - 10:04 AM

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Getting warm! Crappy day!! I thought today was supposed to be a little less on the crappy side?

I think we are all trying to be in the sweet spot of 70s.

We need to warm up to get there... you need to cool way off.

Our goal is the same... we are just opposites sides of that goal. We will reach it today!
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#127
MossMan

Posted 03 September 2018 - 10:09 AM

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Getting warm! Crappy day!! I thought today was supposed to be a little less on the crappy side? 🤬

74l6o1X.jpg

You need to find a body of water and play! Currently 69 here.
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#128
TT-SEA

Posted 03 September 2018 - 10:16 AM

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You need to find a body of water and play! Currently 69 here.

 

No... the lakes and rivers there are currently boiling away.    Potomac came in this morning at a crisp 247 degrees.     Nobody boats around there.   Chesapeake Bay is empty.  :)   



#129
Phil

Posted 03 September 2018 - 10:22 AM

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No... the lakes and rivers there are currently boiling away. Potomac came in this morning at a crisp 247 degrees. Nobody boats around there. Chesapeake Bay is empty. :)


The water temp @ Annapolis is 83.3*F, and it’s the same at Little Falls, peaking at 86*F a few days ago.

That’s bathwater (dewpoint fuel).

https://waterdata.us...ite_no=01646500
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#130
TT-SEA

Posted 03 September 2018 - 10:27 AM

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12Z ECMWF is gung ho with the trough next weekend... getting stronger with each run now.

#131
ShawniganLake

Posted 03 September 2018 - 10:28 AM

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The water temp @ Annapolis is 83.3*F, and it’s the same at Little Falls, peaking at 86*F a few days ago.

That’s bathwater (dewpoint fuel).

https://waterdata.us...ite_no=01646500

Are you sure on these temps. You’ve edited this several times. Low 80s is nice for swimming. Low 100s is bath water.

#132
Phil

Posted 03 September 2018 - 10:33 AM

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Are you sure on these temps. You’ve edited this several times. Low 80s is nice for swimming. Low 100s is bath water.


I just mistook the 6 for an 8. Data is usually pretty accurate there..rarely see significant QC revisions.
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#133
Farmboy

Posted 03 September 2018 - 10:35 AM

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12Z ECMWF is gung ho with the trough next weekend... getting stronger with each run now.


Wonder how long it'll take King GFS to figure this out. Or if Maybe the Euro's the one smoking crack..

Heat waves in the summer, Arctic outbreaks in the winter!


#134
Phil

Posted 03 September 2018 - 10:43 AM

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I just mistook the 6 for an 8. Data is usually pretty accurate there..rarely see significant QC revisions.


Sorry for all the OT crap, btw. In the future, you can just reconcile the LF data with any nearby buoy data on the NOAA-NDBC website (the nearest buoy on the Tidal Potomac reads ~ 83*F, as well).

Here’s the site with said live/historical/QC’ed buoy data, which is available for the PNW too. Just zoom out.

https://www.ndbc.noa...p?station=wasd2
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#135
TT-SEA

Posted 03 September 2018 - 10:58 AM

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Total precip per ECMWF... its November now.

20180903_120524.jpg
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#136
Deweydog

Posted 03 September 2018 - 11:06 AM

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We can't catch a break.

Noah better get his a** in gear.

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#137
weatherfan2012

Posted 03 September 2018 - 11:07 AM

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Getting warm! Crappy day!! I thought today was supposed to be a little less on the crappy side? 74l6o1X.jpg

unfortunately its going to suck here for a while with 90s for highs and high humidity and dewpoints the swamp in full effect september over the last few years has turned into an extended summer for this reagion it really absurd 👎.
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#138
ShawniganLake

Posted 03 September 2018 - 11:37 AM

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Wonder how long it'll take King GFS to figure this out. Or if Maybe the Euro's the one smoking crack..

I’d bet the Euro is on the right track with this one.

#139
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 03 September 2018 - 11:37 AM

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Total precip per ECMWF... its November now.

20180903_120524.jpg

 

Hey, the central and south valley finally getting 0.1" we will take it!!!!


Springfield, Oregon cold season 18-19 Stats:

Coldest high: 48 (Nov 8)
Coldest low: 27 (Nov 11)
Total snowfall: 0"
Last accumulating snowfall: February 21-22, 2018
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 1985

Personal Stats:

Last accumulating snowfall: March 6, 2017
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 2008

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope


#140
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 03 September 2018 - 11:40 AM

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Total precip per ECMWF... its November now.

20180903_120524.jpg


Looking good, hopefully this can verify so we can get a nice soaking.

Nice cool pattern at the end of the run.
It shows over an inch of rain here East PDX Metro.

ecmwf_z500a_namer_11.png
ecmwf_T850a_namer_11.png
v64ug8.jpg

#141
MossMan

Posted 03 September 2018 - 11:46 AM

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Total precip per ECMWF... its November now.

20180903_120524.jpg

Here it comes! Been working on fallerizing things around the new place...got the leaky gutter fixed and servicing the generator along with organizing the tool shed and the shop. It’s coming!!

#142
BLI snowman

Posted 03 September 2018 - 11:59 AM

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Total crap until the GFS shows it for 7-8 runs in a row. And even then it's gotta get inside 96 hours.



#143
TT-SEA

Posted 03 September 2018 - 12:08 PM

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This is not like snow where it might be a one shot deal... the rain will start and go on and on and on and on.   

 

That is a given.   There is no suspense in that... only in the timing of the start.



#144
BLI snowman

Posted 03 September 2018 - 12:11 PM

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This is not like snow where it might be a one shot deal... the rain will start and go on and on and on and on.   

 

That is a given.   There is no suspense in that... only in the timing of the start.

 

There's certainly suspense in finding out when one of our longest regional dry stretches on record will finally break.

 

No one cares about November Rain at this point.



#145
Farmboy

Posted 03 September 2018 - 12:27 PM

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Big runs coming up. I'm down for some November rain in September.

Heat waves in the summer, Arctic outbreaks in the winter!


#146
Esquimalt

Posted 03 September 2018 - 12:33 PM

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Big runs coming up. I'm down for some November rain in September.


Glad to see you aren’t cheering for any more heatwaves !

#147
TT-SEA

Posted 03 September 2018 - 12:34 PM

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There's certainly suspense in finding out when one of our longest regional dry stretches on record will finally break.

 

No one cares about November Rain at this point.

 

 

Right... timing is the only suspense.   

 

I guarantee you will have many, many days to play in the rain.    100% sure.      ;)



#148
BLI snowman

Posted 03 September 2018 - 12:37 PM

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Right... timing is the only suspense.   

 

I guarantee you will have many, many days to play in the rain.    100% sure.      ;)

 

I'm mostly still just worried about next summer at this point and the dreaded 1983/1993/2010 scenario where only 85% of the days are warm, dry, and sunny as opposed to 101%.


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#149
TT-SEA

Posted 03 September 2018 - 12:44 PM

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I'm mostly still just worried about next summer at this point and the dreaded 1983/1993/2010 scenario where only 85% of the days are warm, dry, and sunny as opposed to 101%.


Need some volcanic assistance for 1983 and 1993.

And in June and July of those years... it was more like 20% of the days being warm and dry up here. 85% would be perfect. 20%... not so much.

And 2010 had that lovely streak of 32 days in a row with rain in May and June. Miserable here.

I would never complain about 85% of the days being warm and dry.

#150
Farmboy

Posted 03 September 2018 - 12:51 PM

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Glad to see you aren’t cheering for any more heatwaves !


Nah, I can wait until April. 😉

Heat waves in the summer, Arctic outbreaks in the winter!