Jump to content

September 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest


TigerWoodsLibido

Recommended Posts

Yeah that AR was ridiculous and IIRC the "firehose" was really narrow. I was on the northern periphery of it and Eugene was in the bullseye. There were like 7 fumbles in the 1st quarter.

That game was frustrating to watch with all the fumbles but Oregon was too good they still kicked Cals a**. Then a litte over 2 months later they got pounded with an Arctic Blast and snow.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The GEM only runs when it’s warm

 

 

I guess that makes sense since PDX has been below normal on only 23 of the last 140 days... only 17% of the days since the middle of April. 

 

Probably best to just go with the warm model on any given day.    Works out better.   Odds are in your favor.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I guess that makes sense since PDX has been below normal on only 23 of the last 140 days... only 17% of the days since the middle of April.

No it doesn’t. That would mean it ran cool 17% of the time, assuming it was accurate (it usually isn’t).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The second week of September looks downright hellish on the 00z GFS. Probably a resurgence in the fire season if things go that way. Expect it to verify.

 

Yeah... feels like its going to win this time.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

No it doesn’t. That would mean it ran cool 17% of the time, assuming it was accurate (it usually isn’t).

 

 

Maybe it was still the warmest model though.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looks like the rain mostly misses us on the GFS. Another bone dry month?

 

I think January next year is either going to go down like 1953 or 1930.

 

Could be.

 

Throw in 2006 as well.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1953 seems infinitely more likely than a 1930 redo

Should I look either of these up or are they too depressing?

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

24

Link to comment
Share on other sites

ECMWF looked like it might be backing off... but its actually more troughy by Sunday than previous runs. 

 

Total rain just through next Sunday... this is more than the 12Z run through that time. 

 

ecmwf_tprecip_nw_31.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

That seems sort of meaningless as well.  

 

This entire weekend and next week looked fairly troughy at one point.    Any model showing less troughiness and rain has been the winner lately... no matter what the GFS ensembles and EPS have said.

 

Has to change eventually... but won't believe until I see it.

Change it had to come. knew it all along!https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SHhrZgojY1QWon't Get Fooled Again

Link to comment
Share on other sites

EPS and Euro also sticking to their guns, as well as the GFS ensembles. Although I can’t help but still remember when the operational GFS totally lead the way in killing that early August troughy period.

GFS  has gotten a new satellite in 2016 since then less drunk runs and  NOAA had a super computer upgrade this year..         http://www.noaa.gov/noaa%E2%80%99s-premier-forecast-model-goes-four-dimensional                   obviously it has the correct information about the earth changes.  The Euro better catch up as investors and companies pay for it.http://www.noaa.gov/media-release/noaa-kicks-off-2018-with-massive-supercomputer-upgrade

 

A model is programmed by humans and isn't magic. there is too much reliance on models these days and this society bucks when things don't go their way.  we need old skool science and local climatologists with no political spins as a comeback

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12Z GFS basically took away any meaningful rain even for WA with the Friday night and Saturday system.    Its pretty much washed out on arrival and the ridge is building in on Sunday.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

OT, but it wouldn’t shock me if Gordon makes landfall as a Category 2+ hurricane. Tiny circulations like this one can undergo rapid intensification more easily than larger ones. #ConservationOfAngularMomentum

 

Plus conditions aloft are pretty ideal, and the Gulf has a history of being an RI hotspot.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

FWIW, the soil moisture content has actually improved in the PNW this year, compared to this time last year

qfo57EL.jpg

Link to comment
Share on other sites

OT, but it wouldn’t shock me if Gordon makes landfall as a Category 2+ hurricane. Tiny circulations like this one can undergo rapid intensification more easily than larger ones. #ConservationOfAngularMomentum

Plus conditions aloft are pretty ideal, and the Gulf has a history of being an RI hotspot.

So Gorden needs to pull it’s little arms inward to begin a tighter vorticity

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I feel like the Gorton's fisherman food company could sue for it being a bit too close to their name, though I suppose both fu(k things up for fish.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

24

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
×
×
  • Create New...