September 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

And then Saturday morning... just not moving.   

 

[TT-SEA]

Probably no coincidence that the GFS also surrended to the Euro with regard to the deeper weekend trough out here.

 

As sad as it is, I have definitely noticed a correlation between intense landfalling hurricanes along the eastern seaboard and strong early season troughing out here. I’m guessing it has something to do with the strength of the Bermuda high and associated teleconnections.

 

 

Seems to be playing out right now... as the models have slowed Florence down they have also kept the trough in place over the PNW.   

 

The troughing does not move through... its just stationary.     Its not a typical progression that you normally see in the models and its likely related to the tropical activity. 

[TT-SEA]

I guess its also possible given the model trends that Florence actually stalls a little farther offshore and spares the coast.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

12Z ECMWF slows down Florence even more right as it approaches the NC coast.

 

It gets right to the coastline and completely stops.

 

Here is Friday morning:

 

 

And then Friday evening:

 

Not good.

 

Ryan Maue@RyanMaue

 

Just awful -- worst-case scenario for Hurricane #Florence from ECMWF 12z update as it nears Wilmington, NC area coastline late Thursday. Eye remains offshore / over water, stuck in place all day Friday lashing coast with winds & flooding.

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1039579084924354561

[ShawniganLake]

I guess its also possible given the model trends that Florence actually stalls a little farther offshore and spares the coast.

I was just thinking, isn’t wind damage usually more severe if the storm has a little more forward momentum. The N.E. eyewall would remain off the coast as the hurricane interacts with land

[TT-SEA]

Actually down near Charleston on Sunday...

 

[BLI snowman]

Euro run is actually encouraging for less of an impact for Florence. Weaker and doesn't fully push onshore for a long time. Mainly a heavy rain threat. The land interaction would also weaken it considerably by the time it finally does come onshore. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like it may rain today.

[El_Nina]

Aren't models typically pretty trash at showing where landfall will happen?

[Farmboy]

According to the latest Euro, at what point along it's journey down the South Carolina coast does the eyewall of Florence come ashore? Really hard to tell on these 24hr interval frames... Anyone?

[BLI snowman]

Looks like it may rain today.

 

Pretty underwhelming so far here. About 0.08" this morning and looking unlikely that we get much more today based on the radar.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Pretty underwhelming so far here. About 0.08" this morning and looking unlikely that we get much more today based on the radar.

 

Looks like a little more moisture further south.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Raining now!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Holy sheet!

 

Wahkiakum WA-
1040 AM PDT TUE SEP 11 2018

The National Weather Service in Portland has issued a

* Small Stream Flood Advisory for...
Northwestern Wahkiakum County in southwestern Washington...

* Until 130 PM PDT..

* At 1032 AM PDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated
persistent heavy showers which will cause small stream flooding in
the advisory area. As much as 3 to 6 inches of rain has fallen in
the vicinity of KM Mountain this morning.

* Some locations that may experience flooding include...
Grays River and Rosburg.

[BLI snowman]

Looks like a little more moisture further south.

 

Yeah, looking like the North Willamette Valley will be the focus today down here.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

South of Albany/Corvallis looks SOL for rain today!

[Geos]

Incredible what the EURO is now showing for Florence. Nasty.

Now the GFS drives the low into NC.

 

 

 

[Geos]

Another batch of rain this morning. Looked like a winter sky there for a bit earlier.

0.12" so far today. Nice cells up against the foothills.

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Still nothing in the gauge today. NAM shows some action here overnight. With the loss of daytime heating I'm a bit skeptical of that.

[Farmboy]

Incredible what the EURO is now showing for Florence. Nasty.

Now the GFS drives the low into NC.

 

 

According to the latest Euro, at what point along it's journey down the South Carolina coast does the eyewall of Florence come ashore? Really hard to tell on these 24hr interval frames... Anyone?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Maybe 0.01" here at my office in Salem with that shower...

[Geos]

 

Incredible what the EURO is now showing for Florence. Nasty.

Now the GFS drives the low into NC.

 

According to the latest Euro, at what point along it's journey down the South Carolina coast does the eyewall of Florence come ashore? Really hard to tell on these 24hr interval frames... Anyone?

 

 

Yeah Tim or anyone else with access to all the EURO maps... does is keep the eye off the coast entirely?

 

Everything from Cape Hatteras to Savannah would be ravaged. 

[Blizzard777]

Aren't models typically pretty trash at showing where landfall will happen?

In three days we shall find out

They nailed the last two storm near Hawaii though

[Blizzard777]

.16 to .25 in Tigard area according to the weather machine in the neighborhood and looks like my area back home is about to enjoy some wet too

[Perturbed Member]

Up to .21 in here. Most of it falling earlier, looks like the action is further south now.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Steady rain in Dallas and Monmouth. Road is wet!!! First time since mid June.

[Farmboy]

Yeah Tim or anyone else with access to all the EURO maps... does is keep the eye off the coast entirely?

 

Everything from Cape Hatteras to Savannah would be ravaged.

 

Yikes, hopefully people aren't stupid and try to ride it out. That's not what I'm hearing, though. Unfortunately I think there will be plenty of stupidity..

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like some isolated heavy showers cruising around. The kind of day most people see very small amounts, but a few people will see quite a bit of rain.

[weatherfan2012]

The GFS has completed its surrender to the ECMWF.

What a terrible model.

if anything the track seems to be sifting South and west what an impressive ridge up north very unusual to see a system at this longitude keep moving west and stall and or move southwest.but it not ofton we have a ridge this strong in September.

[Geos]

Yikes, hopefully people aren't stupid and try to ride it out. That's not what I'm hearing, though. Unfortunately I think there will be plenty of stupidity..

 

Probably.

Store shelves are already going bare on certain items.

 

NAM also stalls the hurricane at the coast but it turns in north instead.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

[Geos]

Rain shadow in effect for Seattle and Bellevue areas this afternoon. Would like to see a good downpour.

 

[TT-SEA]

Yeah Tim or anyone else with access to all the EURO maps... does is keep the eye off the coast entirely?

 

Everything from Cape Hatteras to Savannah would be ravaged. 

 

 

Its coming inland on that Sunday map I posted... near the SC-GA border and then meanders up through TN and KY.

[Phil]

Probably no coincidence that the GFS also surrended to the Euro with regard to the deeper weekend trough out here.

 

As sad as it is, I have definitely noticed a correlation between intense landfalling hurricanes along the eastern seaboard and strong early season troughing out here. I’m guessing it has something to do with the strength of the Bermuda high and associated teleconnections.

There is definitely a connection there, for the same reason that EPAC hurricanes tend to coincide with ridging there..diabatic heat release forcing on mass/momentum fluxes and displacement gradients.

 

We saw it last year too, following all the Atlantic hurricane activity in early September, the poleward displacement of the extratropical surf zone was focused in the NATL region as opposed to the NPAC, and the subsequent 6+ weeks were troughy out there.

[Phil]

I guess its also possible given the model trends that Florence actually stalls a little farther offshore and spares the coast.

There’s no chance it avoids landfall, though. Steering collapses and there’s nothing to void it NE for at least a week, barring friction/drag torque which could theoretically fling the COC north upon approach, but only slightly.

 

If it makes landfall, the Appalachians could also throw the LLC a bit.

[Phil]

Euro run is actually encouraging for less of an impact for Florence. Weaker and doesn't fully push onshore for a long time. Mainly a heavy rain threat. The land interaction would also weaken it considerably by the time it finally does come onshore.

I assume this is a troll post?

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Yeah Tim or anyone else with access to all the EURO maps... does is keep the eye off the coast entirely?

 

Everything from Cape Hatteras to Savannah would be ravaged. 

You don't need Tim for this one, follow Dr. Ryan Maue's twitter.  He has the info:

 

 

Ryan Maue | weathermodels.com‏Verified account @RyanMaue

Follow Follow @RyanMaue

More

The ECMWF model will handle the stalling over water the best -- since it includes ocean mixing or cooling due to upwelling along the coast.  That's the cooler green spot along the NC coast ...

 

#Florence slowly weakens and then apparently takes a trip to South Carolina. 

 

[Geos]

 

You don't need Tim for this one, follow Dr. Ryan Maue's twitter.  He has the info:

 

 

Ryan Maue | weathermodels.com‏Verified account @RyanMaue

Follow Follow @RyanMaue

More

The ECMWF model will handle the stalling over water the best -- since it includes ocean mixing or cooling due to upwelling along the coast.  That's the cooler green spot along the NC coast ...

 

#Florence slowly weakens and then apparently takes a trip to South Carolina. 

Dm1XEkSU0AEhSbw.jpg

 

 

 

Yeah it is true if the hurricane sits in a localized area it will upturn the cooler waters down below. Worse case scenario would be if it sits over the Gulf Stream where the warmer water extends down further and then makes a run at the coast. 

[BLI snowman]

I assume this is a troll post?

 

Not at all. Florence weakens considerably and the NE eyewall never really makes it ashore until it's a Cat 1 level storm. The 60-70mph winds it shows for the populated areas isn't catastrophic. Surge effects are also lessened in this scenario. The rains near Wilmington would be the worst impact on that Euro run, and even there it's relatively isolated with the I-95 corridor largely being spared significant flooding.

 

The earlier runs that showed a Cat 4 plowing inland and pulling in a monster surge and then slowly meandering over the populated interior were far more devastating scenarios.

[Geos]

Raining pretty good from Tacoma on westward.