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September 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

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#1751
Jesse

Posted 14 September 2018 - 11:40 AM

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By 'paradise' he meant 50-55 and all day rain.


For sure. Portland’s default weather this week.

#1752
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 14 September 2018 - 11:56 AM

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Starting to think October could be pretty torchy.

 

I have no idea how October will pan out. I will say every single long range model shows above average temps every single month through next May. 


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Snowfall

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#1753
Deweydog

Posted 14 September 2018 - 11:57 AM

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It's always best to predict torching for an upcoming month because of how torchy and touchy things have been the last few years. LOL!

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#1754
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 14 September 2018 - 11:57 AM

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September so far has been pretty comfortable. I don't ever expect September to be wet because down here, it is almost never a wet month. Further north, September, especially the latter half can be a fairly wet month, but we usually do not see that until October. No big heat waves, and some days like today that have a touch of fall. I will take it. 


Snowfall

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#1755
Phil

Posted 14 September 2018 - 12:00 PM

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Probably part of what screws us over. Could this be the late month pattern retrograde you are foreseeing?


The retrograde is showing up on the D10-15 EPS mean, with the developing Aleutian Low and westward shift of the ridge axis.

The big NE-Canadian vortex seems to almost be an entity of it’s own nowadays. Great for building early season cold on our side of the pole, but dislodging it/avoiding an unmovable super-baratropic PV is a challenge.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#1756
TT-SEA

Posted 14 September 2018 - 12:02 PM

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Looks like we will end up with another wetter than normal "water year" up here... not much will change between now and October 1st.

 

I have lost track of how many consecutive wet years this is up here... its been a long run.      Onto the 2018-19 water year!  

 

anomimage_2.gif


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#1757
Deweydog

Posted 14 September 2018 - 12:06 PM

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And heeeeeeeeeeeeeere we go...

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#1758
Jesse

Posted 14 September 2018 - 12:09 PM

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It's always best to predict torching for an upcoming month because of how torchy and touchy things have been the last few years. LOL!


Transitioning back into a warm pattern starting late this month makes sense. Considering we have been cool (average) since late August now. Will have been about a month at that point.

What do you think will happen?
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#1759
WeatherArchive

Posted 14 September 2018 - 12:10 PM

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Ssh, we're not supposed to talk about how wet it's been, it's very upsetting for some people.

Yeah the valley has WAY different weather then you Washington folks. The showers have settled the dust down a bit. All 0.14 of it! We are now flooding! Do you think I should invest in an ark for the upcoming deluge?  :P 


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#1760
TT-SEA

Posted 14 September 2018 - 12:16 PM

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Yeah the valley has WAY different weather then you Washington folks. The showers have settled the dust down a bit. All 0.14 of it! We are now flooding! Do you think I should invest in an ark for the upcoming deluge?  :P

 

 

Looks like a little more settling of dust in Portland.  Almost looks like a deluge.   ;)

 

20180913_204129.jpg



#1761
Jesse

Posted 14 September 2018 - 12:20 PM

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Contrary to widespread misconception, Portland is not considered part of the Willamette Valley. Basically draw a line through Newberg/Wilsonville/Canby and it’s south of there.

#1762
TT-SEA

Posted 14 September 2018 - 12:23 PM

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Contrary to widespread misconception, Portland is not considered part of the Willamette Valley. Basically draw a line through Sherwood/Wilsonville/Aurora and it’s south of there.

 

 

But there was heavy rain in NW Oregon... including Portland.



#1763
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 14 September 2018 - 12:24 PM

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Contrary to widespread misconception, Portland is not considered part of the Willamette Valley. Basically draw a line through Newberg/Wilsonville/Canby and it’s south of there.

 

I would gladly trade Multnomah for Clark County. 


Snowfall

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#1764
Phil

Posted 14 September 2018 - 12:25 PM

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Transitioning back into a warm pattern starting late this month makes sense. Considering we have been cool (average) since late August now. Will have been about a month at that point.

What do you think will happen?


You don’t actually expect him to answer that, do you?
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#1765
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 14 September 2018 - 12:25 PM

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But there was heavy rain in NW Oregon... including Portland.

 

Yes about a 5-10 mile wide area experienced a heavy shower. 


Snowfall

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#1766
TT-SEA

Posted 14 September 2018 - 12:27 PM

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Yes about a 5-10 mile wide area experienced a heavy shower. 

 

I believe this is incorrect.

 

anomimage_2.gif



#1767
Farmboy

Posted 14 September 2018 - 12:29 PM

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Contrary to widespread misconception, Portland is not considered part of the Willamette Valley. Basically draw a line through Newberg/Wilsonville/Canby and it’s south of there.


The Willamette river runs right through downtown Portland. :rolleyes:


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Heat waves in the summer, Arctic outbreaks in the winter!


#1768
Jesse

Posted 14 September 2018 - 12:29 PM

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You don’t actually expect him to answer that, do you?


Of course not. Non-sarcastic discussion is for losers.

#1769
Deweydog

Posted 14 September 2018 - 12:35 PM

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Transitioning back into a warm pattern starting late this month makes sense. Considering we have been cool (average) since late August now. Will have been about a month at that point.

What do you think will happen?


It'll probably warm up fairly soon, but it's also 16 days until October and 47 days until October comes to an end.

-Capt. Obvious

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#1770
Jesse

Posted 14 September 2018 - 12:36 PM

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It'll probably warm up fairly soon, but it's also 16 days until October and 47 days until October comes to an end.

-Capt. Obvious


Flatiron?

#1771
Jesse

Posted 14 September 2018 - 12:37 PM

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EPS seems to think the operational is cutting things off too far to the west late next week. Keeps the mean trough position over us.

#1772
Deweydog

Posted 14 September 2018 - 12:40 PM

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Flatiron?


No maps = no Flatiron

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#1773
TT-SEA

Posted 14 September 2018 - 12:43 PM

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EPS seems to think the operational is cutting things off too far to the west late next week. Keeps the mean trough position over us.

 

 

EPS mean definitely hints at energy cutting off to the west next weekend... best you can expect with a smooth ensemble mean.

 

eps_z500a_noram_37.png


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#1774
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 14 September 2018 - 12:43 PM

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I believe this is incorrect.

anomimage_2.gif


lol Monmouth right in that little red dot just SW of Salem.

Monmouth, Oregon cold season 17-18 Stats:

 

Coldest high: 34 (Dec 24)

Coldest low: 22 (Dec 11 & Feb 23)

Total snowfall: 1"

Last snowfall: February 21-22, 2018

Last accumulating snowfall on roads: March 6, 2017

Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)

Last White Christmas: 2008

 

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope


#1775
Phil

Posted 14 September 2018 - 12:52 PM

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FWIW, some of the best PNW winters (in years that are at least somewhat analogous to 2018) also had strong vortexes in NE-Canada in the Aug-Oct period.

However, they had mostly reversed to -NAO/blocking in November. So if this year follows a similar progression, it could (statistically) increase the odds of some action in the West during the front half of winter.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#1776
Jesse

Posted 14 September 2018 - 12:53 PM

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EPS mean definitely hints at energy cutting off to the west next weekend... best you can expect with a smooth ensemble mean.

eps_z500a_noram_37.png


Map looks super ridgy for us. I stand corrected. ;)

#1777
TT-SEA

Posted 14 September 2018 - 12:56 PM

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Map looks super ridgy for us. I stand corrected. ;)

 

 

Did not say that.  

 

You are going to bring on a genuine heat wave with your posts though... I know how this goes.    :lol:



#1778
nwsnow

Posted 14 September 2018 - 12:58 PM

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But there was heavy rain in NW Oregon... including Portland.

 

The really heavy stuff was really isolated. I know some places that got hit by lots of heavy showers but my weather station at my location is only at .30in for the whole month, hardly impressive. 

 

Hoping the weekend system overachieves a bit and really brings a widespread soaking. The recent showers have been refreshing but we need something to hit the whole region consistently. This is the most organized system of the season so far. 

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_8.png



#1779
Jesse

Posted 14 September 2018 - 01:06 PM

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Did not say that.

You are going to bring on a genuine heat wave with your posts though... I know how this goes. :lol:


Probably. We’re due!!
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#1780
Jesse

Posted 14 September 2018 - 01:16 PM

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Nice day. Should be heading for the low-mid 70s in the Portland area. A degree or two below average.

#1781
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 14 September 2018 - 01:23 PM

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Low 70s here and mostly sunny. Beautiful late summer day in the California of the Willamette Valley.

Monmouth, Oregon cold season 17-18 Stats:

 

Coldest high: 34 (Dec 24)

Coldest low: 22 (Dec 11 & Feb 23)

Total snowfall: 1"

Last snowfall: February 21-22, 2018

Last accumulating snowfall on roads: March 6, 2017

Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)

Last White Christmas: 2008

 

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope


#1782
Farmboy

Posted 14 September 2018 - 01:49 PM

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Low 70s here and mostly sunny. Beautiful late summer day in the California of the Willamette Valley.

 

 


Heat waves in the summer, Arctic outbreaks in the winter!


#1783
Kayla

Posted 14 September 2018 - 01:55 PM

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65/38 with a mix of sun and clouds here today. Pretty much what I would define as perfect weather.

 

Gotta love Fall.


Cold Season 2018/19:

Total snowfall: 0"
Highest daily snowfall 0"

Highest snow depth: 0"

Coldest high: 55.0º
Coldest low: 36.1º

Number of subzero days: 0

 

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...OZEM152#history


#1784
Phil

Posted 14 September 2018 - 02:11 PM

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It’s early, but NH snowcover extent is outrageously large for this time of year. Most expansive (for the date) since at least the late 1960s according to the RSL.

9PdoWse.jpg
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Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#1785
Phil

Posted 14 September 2018 - 02:14 PM

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Here’s climatology..there’s not supposed to be any continental snowcover yet (except some tiny areas in the heart of the cold pool, like Ellesmere/Baffin Islands).

VP5lPXC.png
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#1786
Phil

Posted 14 September 2018 - 02:20 PM

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This pattern might something to do with it.

dJrZ8nD.png
  • Geos likes this
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#1787
TT-SEA

Posted 14 September 2018 - 04:01 PM

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Perfect example of why the media ruins the storm watching for me... Weather Channel guy can barely stand but yet people are strolling by behind him with no problem at all.   :lol:

 

https://www.youtube....h?v=UrvbrMybNDI


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#1788
El_Nina

Posted 14 September 2018 - 04:11 PM

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Perfect example of why the media ruins the storm watching for me... Weather Channel guy can barely stand but yet people are strolling by behind him with no problem at all.   :lol:
 

That guy looks like hes trained to do that!

#1789
Farmboy

Posted 14 September 2018 - 04:12 PM

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Perfect example of why the media ruins the storm watching for me... Weather Channel guy can barely stand but yet people are strolling by behind him with no problem at all.   :lol:

 

https://www.youtube....h?v=UrvbrMybNDI

 

 

TWC = fake news.   :lol:


Heat waves in the summer, Arctic outbreaks in the winter!


#1790
Deweydog

Posted 14 September 2018 - 04:18 PM

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Perfect example of why the media ruins the storm watching for me... Weather Channel guy can barely stand but yet people are strolling by behind him with no problem at all. :lol:


Category 5 coverage in a category 1 storm!

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#1791
TT-SEA

Posted 14 September 2018 - 05:12 PM

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Lightning and thunder here now... heavy rain too.  



#1792
MossMan

Posted 14 September 2018 - 05:36 PM

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Seems like late October over the last week. Lots of rain and chilly temps. At least it is dry here...at the moment.

#1793
Jginmartini

Posted 14 September 2018 - 06:08 PM

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That guy looks like hes trained to do that!


And I suppose just out of camera range their is someone throwing debris as well

Too funny!!!
Blast of Arctic air please

#1794
Crf450ish2

Posted 14 September 2018 - 06:13 PM

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Seems like late October over the last week. Lots of rain and chilly temps.


That's a good thing though, right?

#1795
Phil

Posted 14 September 2018 - 06:18 PM

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Perfect example of why the media ruins the storm watching for me... Weather Channel guy can barely stand but yet people are strolling by behind him with no problem at all. :lol:


That’s what happens when you have a demanding live TV audience and a storm with relatively local wind maxima.

Jim Cantore’s shoot from the eyewall was legit, though.

https://weather.com/...ough-wilmington
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#1796
Jginmartini

Posted 14 September 2018 - 06:23 PM

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Lightning and thunder here now... heavy rain too.


As I was traveling northbound I–5 through Tacoma I saw that impressive looking cell. Looked like their was and intense area of hail coming down as well
Blast of Arctic air please

#1797
TT-SEA

Posted 14 September 2018 - 06:32 PM

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As I was traveling northbound I–5 through Tacoma I saw that impressive looking cell. Looked like their was and intense area of hail coming down as well


Looks like another round is coming now.
  • Jginmartini likes this

#1798
Farmboy

Posted 14 September 2018 - 06:52 PM

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Hilarious!

 


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Heat waves in the summer, Arctic outbreaks in the winter!


#1799
TT-SEA

Posted 14 September 2018 - 07:01 PM

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Hilarious!


Trump is a complete moron all on his own. Why does the media have to give him easy ammunition??
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#1800
dolt

Posted 14 September 2018 - 07:08 PM

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It’s early, but NH snowcover extent is outrageously large for this time of year. Most expansive (for the date) since at least the late 1960s according to the RSL.

9PdoWse.jpg

Needs more jpg