Phil Posted September 12, 2018 Report Share Posted September 12, 2018 Is this the great 2018 hurricane solar eclipse special?That was last year. If I didn’t have to work, I’d probably drive down there to attempt an eyewall intercept. It’s been an eternity since I’ve done it, and for once I’m familiar with the area. Figures these storms always seem to coincide with my busiest stretches of the year. Every post I make here right now is indicative of my procrastination from the stuff I should be doing, haha. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 12, 2018 Report Share Posted September 12, 2018 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted September 12, 2018 Report Share Posted September 12, 2018 Surf city camera. This might be ground zero, FWIW. http://surfchex.com/cams/surf-city-pier-north/Great website, I got it bookmarked. Hopefully it can stay online and withstand the pounding from Florence. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 12, 2018 Report Share Posted September 12, 2018 Great website, I got it bookmarked. Hopefully it can stay online and withstand the pounding from Florence.Good news is there are like 20+ different cameras there from across the region. So I’m guessing at least some of them will stay up. FWIW, they have their own mini “Florence tracking page” as well. Nothing in-depth, but it’s an easy quick go-to for visuals: http://surfchex.com/hurricane-florence-information/ 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted September 12, 2018 Report Share Posted September 12, 2018 Where *exactly* Flo stalls is crucial too. If it’s right on the coast as some models suggest, that’s a worst-case outcome. If the eyewall stays fully offshore, however, like with Matthew in 2016, it could spare the immediate coast from the worst winds even if it affects more people and stays stronger as a result. And some of the models really stall it, and instead just make a right turn before landfall. Tough call for sure. The 12z EURO ensemble mean has it making landfall around Cape Fear and then stalling with a slow jog down the Carolina coast before heading inland. Would be brutal for Wilmington and Myrtle Beach. http://i67.tinypic.com/33ok09z.jpg Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted September 12, 2018 Report Share Posted September 12, 2018 Heavy rain in Ridgefield!!! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted September 12, 2018 Report Share Posted September 12, 2018 Heavy rain in Ridgefield!!!False info. Everyone knows it doesn’t rain south of Olympia anymore. 2 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 12, 2018 Report Share Posted September 12, 2018 The 12z EURO ensemble mean has it making landfall around Cape Fear and then stalling with a slow jog down the Carolina coast before heading inland. Would be brutal for Wilmington and Myrtle Beach. http://i67.tinypic.com/33ok09z.jpgNote the shape of the coastline..the “bowl” areas are potentially problematic for water funneling. This pattern of shoreline troughs was carved out by repetitive hammering from major hurricanes and nor’easters over the last 10,000+ years. You can even see the northeasterly component to the crests (as storms approach at the height of their intensity). Obviously, this region is no stranger to these cyclones. If you’ve ever been to a large beach, I’m sure you’ve seen similar patterns of ridges and troughs in the sand, carved by wind and ocean waves with a more parallel vector to the coastline axis. A much smaller scale, of course, but the same general mechanism(s) are at play. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted September 12, 2018 Report Share Posted September 12, 2018 Looking like a pretty impressive chilly interlude setting up for this weekend / early next week. Chilly 850s, low thicknesses, northerly surface pressure gradients. Should be some lows in the 30s if it verfies. Meanwhile we have had some impressive downpours over the last couple of days and almost an inch of rain from this trough so far. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted September 12, 2018 Report Share Posted September 12, 2018 Picked up .76 inches of rain in under 10 minutes earlier today, wife sent me video of our driveway mostly under water at one point, first time for that!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted September 12, 2018 Report Share Posted September 12, 2018 Heavy rain in Ridgefield!!!Almost a tenth of an inch!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted September 12, 2018 Report Share Posted September 12, 2018 0.26" here today. Most of which fell this evening. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Mode Posted September 12, 2018 Report Share Posted September 12, 2018 0.42" on the day, nice heavy shower this evening with a 2.31"/hourly rate. Had some thunder earlier on a cell that moved by to the north. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted September 12, 2018 Report Share Posted September 12, 2018 0.42" on the day, nice heavy shower this evening with a 2.31"/hourly rate. Had some thunder earlier on a cell that moved by to the north.Looked like Kalama area got nailed with some good cells. Nothing exciting in Tigard or SE Portland today. Even back home all the action slid to the south of Federal Way Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted September 12, 2018 Author Report Share Posted September 12, 2018 Managed .05 on the day. Brings the total to .07 for the month. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted September 12, 2018 Report Share Posted September 12, 2018 Note the shape of the coastline..the “bowl” areas are potentially problematic for water funneling. This pattern of shoreline troughs was carved out by repetitive hammering from major hurricanes and nor’easters over the last 10,000+ years. You can even see the northeasterly component to the crests (as storms approach at the height of their intensity). Obviously, this region is no stranger to these cyclones. If you’ve ever been to a large beach, I’m sure you’ve seen similar patterns of ridges and troughs in the sand, carved by wind and ocean waves with a more parallel vector to the coastline axis. A much smaller scale, of course, but the same general mechanism(s) are at play.That's cool to know, never knew that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted September 12, 2018 Report Share Posted September 12, 2018 Looking like a pretty impressive chilly interlude setting up for this weekend / early next week. Chilly 850s, low thicknesses, northerly surface pressure gradients. Should be some lows in the 30s if it verfies. Meanwhile we have had some impressive downpours over the last couple of days and almost an inch of rain from this trough so far.Fall is officially here I would say. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 12, 2018 Report Share Posted September 12, 2018 YOU CANT TRUST A NETWORK THAT PUSHES CULTURAL MARXISIM AND A HOMOSEXUAL AGENDA WHILE IGNORING THE CHEMTRAILS BEING USED TO FUEL FLORENCE AND OR HOW SOROS IS PAYING BLM TO LOOT EVACUATED HOMES. DITCH CNN AND FREE YOURSELF FROM THE PRISION PLANET.#woke Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted September 12, 2018 Report Share Posted September 12, 2018 The 00z GFS has Florence stalling just before it hits the central NC coast, then slowly jogs down the Carolina coastline before heading inland in SC. The 00z UKMET on the other hand makes landfall in Wilmington and stalls just inland and then drifts into SC. Either way it looks pretty bad for Wilmington. http://i65.tinypic.com/2wfkeop.jpghttp://i68.tinypic.com/29eg905.jpg Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 12, 2018 Report Share Posted September 12, 2018 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 12, 2018 Report Share Posted September 12, 2018 Some pretty cool model runs lately. Maybe the other shoe is finally dropping after the endless torching since the end of April. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 12, 2018 Report Share Posted September 12, 2018 Picked up about .15” today. Nothing too incredible but still my highest daily total since June. 67/53. Solidly cool early season day. Had a brief heavy rain shower with some rumbles of thunder to the south a bit before sunset. Even saw a rainbow. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted September 12, 2018 Report Share Posted September 12, 2018 YOU CANT TRUST A NETWORK THAT PUSHES CULTURAL MARXISIM AND A HOMOSEXUAL AGENDA WHILE IGNORING THE CHEMTRAILS BEING USED TO FUEL FLORENCE AND OR HOW SOROS IS PAYING BLM TO LOOT EVACUATED HOMES. DITCH CNN AND FREE YOURSELF FROM THE PRISION PLANET. The funny thing is the first part of that sentence is pretty true. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted September 12, 2018 Report Share Posted September 12, 2018 Currently down to 45, fall is in the air! Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted September 12, 2018 Report Share Posted September 12, 2018 Very possible we have an extended stretch of seasonally cool weather. Also looks pretty likely September goes down as a very dry month yet again. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted September 12, 2018 Report Share Posted September 12, 2018 Looks like a Georgia landfall on the ECMWF. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted September 12, 2018 Report Share Posted September 12, 2018 The 00z EURO adds another twist to the forecast. Looks like it makes landfall just at the tip of Cape Fear, stalls some then heads just enough offshore to maintain strength then eventually jogs SW and makes landfall in Savannah GA. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted September 12, 2018 Report Share Posted September 12, 2018 Looks like a Georgia landfall on the ECMWF.Yeah, here's the track Florence takes on the 00z EURO. http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf_florence.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 12, 2018 Report Share Posted September 12, 2018 The funny thing is the first part of that sentence is pretty true.Good thing CNN doesn’t push those agendas, then. At least they didn’t essentially become a state-run media network during the Obama administration (like Fox News is now for the Trump administration). For the most part, CNN is merely devolving into a cult of conspiracy theorists. Harmless and amusing, if anything. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 12, 2018 Report Share Posted September 12, 2018 Yeah, here's the track Florence takes on the 00z EURO. http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf_florence.pngThe eyewall actually landfalls @ Bald Head Island, NC. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted September 12, 2018 Report Share Posted September 12, 2018 The eyewall actually landfalls @ Bald Head Island, NC.Yeah, if this verifies, landfall as a major hurricane in NC. Then probably still a hurricane in GA. That would be crazy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 12, 2018 Report Share Posted September 12, 2018 Yeah, if this verifies, landfall as a major hurricane in NC. Then probably still a hurricane in GA. That would be crazy. And it completely spares Charleston... crazy track. This thing is going to be such a challenge for forecasters. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted September 12, 2018 Report Share Posted September 12, 2018 And it completely spares Charleston... crazy track. This thing is going to be such a challenge for forecasters.Yeah, it still looks like though it dumps a lot of rain along the South Carolina coast. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted September 12, 2018 Report Share Posted September 12, 2018 What a crazy day of model riding. It's been a roller-coaster ride today. I'm nauseous now, time to get some rest. See you all tomorrow for more fun. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 12, 2018 Report Share Posted September 12, 2018 Little bit of light rain happening this morning. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted September 12, 2018 Report Share Posted September 12, 2018 What a crazy day of model riding. It's been a roller-coaster ride today. I'm nauseous now, time to get some rest. See you all tomorrow for more fun.Your name is Frontal Snowsquall...not Frontal Hurricanesquall...don’t wear yourself out before winter, we need full force Frontal Snowsquall! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted September 12, 2018 Report Share Posted September 12, 2018 The 06z GFS ensemble mean at PDX is below normal the entire run! Let's pull that off once in January! Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 12, 2018 Report Share Posted September 12, 2018 The 06z GFS ensemble mean at PDX is below normal the entire run! Let's pull that off once in January!2017 says you had your shot. Wait another 35 years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted September 12, 2018 Report Share Posted September 12, 2018 2017 says you had your shot. Wait another 35 years. If I'm alive then. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted September 12, 2018 Report Share Posted September 12, 2018 12z gfs is more wet for Oregon through this weekend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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