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September 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest


TigerWoodsLibido

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Is this the great 2018 hurricane solar eclipse special?

That was last year. ;)

 

If I didn’t have to work, I’d probably drive down there to attempt an eyewall intercept. It’s been an eternity since I’ve done it, and for once I’m familiar with the area. Figures these storms always seem to coincide with my busiest stretches of the year. Every post I make here right now is indicative of my procrastination from the stuff I should be doing, haha.

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Great website, I got it bookmarked. Hopefully it can stay online and withstand the pounding from Florence.

Good news is there are like 20+ different cameras there from across the region. So I’m guessing at least some of them will stay up.

 

FWIW, they have their own mini “Florence tracking page” as well. Nothing in-depth, but it’s an easy quick go-to for visuals:

 

http://surfchex.com/hurricane-florence-information/

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Where *exactly* Flo stalls is crucial too. If it’s right on the coast as some models suggest, that’s a worst-case outcome. If the eyewall stays fully offshore, however, like with Matthew in 2016, it could spare the immediate coast from the worst winds even if it affects more people and stays stronger as a result. And some of the models really stall it, and instead just make a right turn before landfall. Tough call for sure.

 

s09aQFN.jpg

The 12z EURO ensemble mean has it making landfall around Cape Fear and then stalling with a slow jog down the Carolina coast before heading inland. Would be brutal for Wilmington and Myrtle Beach.

 

http://i67.tinypic.com/33ok09z.jpg

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The 12z EURO ensemble mean has it making landfall around Cape Fear and then stalling with a slow jog down the Carolina coast before heading inland. Would be brutal for Wilmington and Myrtle Beach.

 

http://i67.tinypic.com/33ok09z.jpg

Note the shape of the coastline..the “bowl” areas are potentially problematic for water funneling. This pattern of shoreline troughs was carved out by repetitive hammering from major hurricanes and nor’easters over the last 10,000+ years. You can even see the northeasterly component to the crests (as storms approach at the height of their intensity).

 

Obviously, this region is no stranger to these cyclones.

 

zqJotiW.jpg

 

If you’ve ever been to a large beach, I’m sure you’ve seen similar patterns of ridges and troughs in the sand, carved by wind and ocean waves with a more parallel vector to the coastline axis. A much smaller scale, of course, but the same general mechanism(s) are at play.

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Looking like a pretty impressive chilly interlude setting up for this weekend / early next week.  Chilly 850s, low thicknesses, northerly surface pressure gradients.  Should be some lows in the 30s if it verfies.

 

Meanwhile we have had some impressive downpours over the last couple of days and almost an inch of rain from this trough so far.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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0.26" here today. Most of which fell this evening.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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0.42" on the day, nice heavy shower this evening with a 2.31"/hourly rate.  Had some thunder earlier on a cell that moved by to the north.

Looked like Kalama area got nailed with some good cells. Nothing exciting in Tigard or SE Portland today. Even back home all the action slid to the south of Federal Way

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Managed .05 on the day. Brings the total to .07 for the month.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

24

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Note the shape of the coastline..the “bowl” areas are potentially problematic for water funneling. This pattern of shoreline troughs was carved out by repetitive hammering from major hurricanes and nor’easters over the last 10,000+ years. You can even see the northeasterly component to the crests (as storms approach at the height of their intensity).

 

Obviously, this region is no stranger to these cyclones.

 

zqJotiW.jpg

 

If you’ve ever been to a large beach, I’m sure you’ve seen similar patterns of ridges and troughs in the sand, carved by wind and ocean waves with a more parallel vector to the coastline axis. A much smaller scale, of course, but the same general mechanism(s) are at play.

That's cool to know, never knew that.

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Looking like a pretty impressive chilly interlude setting up for this weekend / early next week. Chilly 850s, low thicknesses, northerly surface pressure gradients. Should be some lows in the 30s if it verfies.

 

Meanwhile we have had some impressive downpours over the last couple of days and almost an inch of rain from this trough so far.

Fall is officially here I would say.

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YOU CANT TRUST A NETWORK THAT PUSHES CULTURAL MARXISIM AND A HOMOSEXUAL AGENDA WHILE IGNORING THE CHEMTRAILS BEING USED TO FUEL FLORENCE AND OR HOW SOROS IS PAYING BLM TO LOOT EVACUATED HOMES. DITCH CNN AND FREE YOURSELF FROM THE PRISION PLANET.

#woke

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The 00z GFS has Florence stalling just before it hits the central NC coast, then slowly jogs down the Carolina coastline before heading inland in SC.

 

The 00z UKMET on the other hand makes landfall in Wilmington and stalls just inland and then drifts into SC.

 

Either way it looks pretty bad for Wilmington.

 

http://i65.tinypic.com/2wfkeop.jpg

http://i68.tinypic.com/29eg905.jpg

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YOU CANT TRUST A NETWORK THAT PUSHES CULTURAL MARXISIM AND A HOMOSEXUAL AGENDA WHILE IGNORING THE CHEMTRAILS BEING USED TO FUEL FLORENCE AND OR HOW SOROS IS PAYING BLM TO LOOT EVACUATED HOMES. DITCH CNN AND FREE YOURSELF FROM THE PRISION PLANET.

 

The funny thing is the first part of that sentence is pretty true.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Currently down to 45, fall is in the air!

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Very possible we have an extended stretch of seasonally cool weather. Also looks pretty likely September goes down as a very dry month yet again.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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The funny thing is the first part of that sentence is pretty true.

Good thing CNN doesn’t push those agendas, then. At least they didn’t essentially become a state-run media network during the Obama administration (like Fox News is now for the Trump administration).

 

For the most part, CNN is merely devolving into a cult of conspiracy theorists. Harmless and amusing, if anything.

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Yeah, here's the track Florence takes on the 00z EURO.

 

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf_florence.png

The eyewall actually landfalls @ Bald Head Island, NC.

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Yeah, if this verifies, landfall as a major hurricane in NC. Then probably still a hurricane in GA. That would be crazy.

 

 

And it completely spares Charleston... crazy track.

 

This thing is going to be such a challenge for forecasters.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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What a crazy day of model riding. It's been a roller-coaster ride today. I'm nauseous now, time to get some rest. See you all tomorrow for more fun.

Your name is Frontal Snowsquall...not Frontal Hurricanesquall...don’t wear yourself out before winter, we need full force Frontal Snowsquall!

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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The 06z GFS ensemble mean at PDX is below normal the entire run! Let's pull that off once in January!

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2017 says you had your shot. Wait another 35 years.

 

If I'm alive then.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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