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September 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest


TigerWoodsLibido

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12Z ECMWF definitely trending toward just drenching WA and southern BC with the Friday into Saturday system... amounts look pretty sparse in Oregon. 

 

The beat goes on. 

 

Here is the total precipitation for that entire event...

 

ecmwf_precip_120_nw_25.png

 

This is in line with most previous GFS runs. The 12z was wetter down here, as are a lot of the GFS ensembles. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Weird that the low at PDX is being reported as 50 when there was an “hourly special” of 49.

 

Yeah, I double and triple check it, but right now it is showing a low of 50.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Yeah, I double and triple check it, but right now it is showing a low of 50.

 

Russian collusion.

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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In +ENSO winters w/ descending westerly shear, it can be a good sign (for the West) when there’s a strong early season Canadian cold/vortex pattern that reverses/develops blocking during the late autumn. This tendency was observed in every “good” +ENSO/Wrly downwell winter in the PNW since 1950.

 

The blowtorch winters, however, kept the vortex over Greenland/Baffin Island through the month of November and sometimes into December, too.

 

So November is a key month IMO.

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The beginning of September was warm here, now it's been consecutively running below normal. If there are no more 80's or mid 70's in the near future, may end up with a below normal month.

 

The lows are really dragging down your departures. The average low in September at K-Falls is 40.7, though now that we are into the back half of the month the average low has dipped into the upper 30s. Still the 28 yesterday was a -11 departure on the low. Average high is still 76. Right now K-Falls is running a -2.3 departure for the month. Very likely you end up solidly below average. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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12Z ECMWF definitely trending toward just drenching WA and southern BC with the Friday into Saturday system... amounts look pretty sparse in Oregon.

 

The beat goes on.

 

Here is the total precipitation for that entire event...

 

ecmwf_precip_120_nw_25.png

Seems like the gfs is the outlier with the southern most track on Friday. Looks like it could be the first real fall like system, with a uniform widespread soaking.

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Have to love the overall pattern on the 12z ECMWF. Lots of cold continental air pushing south.

 

Hopefully we can see a similar pattern in November/December.

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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Have to love the overall pattern on the 12z ECMWF. Lots of cold continental air pushing south.

 

Hopefully we can see a similar pattern in November/December.

 

Next week looks gorgeous out here on this run... cool, dry, and sunny.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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In other news, it is about as perfect a mid-September day as one could ever dream of.

Observations don't show mid 40s and heavy rain with a 40 mph wind right now down there... very strange.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Side note... the PDX observation shows a temp of 66 and dewpoint of 46 with some high clouds.

 

I was mocked for saying those conditions were beautiful back in mid-April.   In fact... Andrew said his wife said it was hot and humid on one such a day and I was wrong for saying it was pleasant.   Now they want to move to Dallas.   ;)

 

Another person described literally the exact same conditions in April as being "soupy" and miserable for a run.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Some areas in NC are approaching 40” of rain.

 

#nothingburger #ItsWorseInTimsBackyard

 

 

Phil is really offended that it was raining harder here than at some of the reporters' locations that night.   But it was.   :)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Rain is a consummate blessing.

 

 

I bet every living soul in North Carolina is down on their knees thanking God for this bountiful blessing of live-giving nourishment.    You can never, ever, ever have too much rain.   True happiness would be perpetual rain for eternity.  

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GC_mV1IpjWA

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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12Z ECMWF definitely trending toward just drenching WA and southern BC with the Friday into Saturday system... amounts look pretty sparse in Oregon. 

 

The beat goes on. 

 

Here is the total precipitation for that entire event...

 

ecmwf_precip_120_nw_25.png

 

Planning outdoor activities on Friday - can you tell what time the rain starts about?

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Planning outdoor activities on Friday - can you tell what time the rain starts about?

 

Per the 12Z ECMWF... it starts late morning on Friday and then Friday afternoon is very wet across all of western WA.   

 

Looks like we are in a post-frontal situation with a strong SW wind and a c-zone to the north by evening.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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18z looks a little wetter with the Friday/Saturday system than the Euro.

 

Still a generally troughy run but also continues to be dry here.  Guessing October will make up for it.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

24

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Could be more model mayhem in the near future. The first half of October is looking intriguing for another hurricane or two..watching the Gulf/Carribean this time for at least one cyclone, plus a potential EPAC cyclone between the 25th and the 5th of October.

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