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September 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

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#2751
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted Today, 01:05 PM

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Harder to tell because of how smoothed the mean is at that range, but the trend of shifting the highest heights offshore and draping lower heights to our east is noticeable.

 

Really want this pattern of retrogression in 3 months.


Monmouth, Oregon cold season 17-18 Stats:

 

Coldest high: 34 (Dec 24)

Coldest low: 22 (Dec 11 & Feb 23)

Total snowfall: 1"

Last snowfall: February 21-22, 2018

Last accumulating snowfall on roads: March 6, 2017

Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)

Last White Christmas: 2008

 

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope


#2752
Phil

Posted Today, 01:06 PM

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Might be an anti-LIA regime but at least it isn’t an anti-LOL regime!


It’s one of those bizarre things. Opposite regimes can have the same effect in this case, under changed thermal boundary conditions.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#2753
Deweydog

Posted Today, 01:08 PM

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It'd be nice to get this meridional retrogression crap out of the way now.

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#2754
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted Today, 01:12 PM

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12Z ECMWF says heat wave cancel... retrogression instead!

Just noticed that the upgraded FV3-GFS shows the same thing.

The ICON does not agree though. And the 00Z EPS did not show this either.

Could be a new trend. Obviously one of the potential scenarios with an amplified ridge over Alaska.

Euro looks like it wants to give us a little backdoor action starting in a week or so.

Probably will be a lot of flip flops regarding the position of the ridge next week, since the manner in which a portion of our weekend trough cuts off and forms a ULL will have a big impact on how/where it amplifies. And of course models infamously struggle with ULLs.

Nice to see the retrogression idea in the card deck, at very least.


Yeah, it shows a nice backdoor shot of cool air. Some good gorge outflow as well.

ecmwf_T850a_nwus_10.png
2qm0u34.png

#2755
Jesse

Posted Today, 01:18 PM

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It'd be nice to get this meridional retrogression crap out of the way now.


I can think of about 1985 examples of this sort of pattern establishing itself in the early fall and not working out later on.
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#2756
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted Today, 01:19 PM

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Yeah, it shows a nice backdoor shot of cool air. Some good gorge outflow as well.

ecmwf_T850a_nwus_10.png
2qm0u34.png

 

Fills the entire valley down to Eugene/Springfield!  Very promising if there is any correlation between where we are now and Dec.


Monmouth, Oregon cold season 17-18 Stats:

 

Coldest high: 34 (Dec 24)

Coldest low: 22 (Dec 11 & Feb 23)

Total snowfall: 1"

Last snowfall: February 21-22, 2018

Last accumulating snowfall on roads: March 6, 2017

Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)

Last White Christmas: 2008

 

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope


#2757
MossMan

Posted Today, 01:28 PM

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I can think of about 1985 examples of this sort of pattern establishing itself in the early fall and not working out later on.

1985 was wonderful!

#2758
Farmboy

Posted Today, 01:28 PM

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Yeah, it shows a nice backdoor shot of cool air. Some good gorge outflow as well.


Any predictions for the first frontal snow squall? I'll bet there's a frontal rainsquall or 2 or 3 or 4 in October or November...

Heat waves in the summer, Arctic outbreaks in the winter!


#2759
Deweydog

Posted Today, 02:24 PM

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I can think of about 1985 examples of this sort of pattern establishing itself in the early fall and not working out later on.


Sounds dry.

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#2760
Farmboy

Posted Today, 02:58 PM

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Sounds like another memorable winter.


Heat waves in the summer, Arctic outbreaks in the winter!


#2761
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted Today, 03:45 PM

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I can think of about 1985 examples of this sort of pattern establishing itself in the early fall and not working out later on.

 

Get ready for another lame January.


Snowfall

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#2762
MossMan

Posted Today, 04:03 PM

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Sounds like another memorable winter.

I have a feeling that all hell is going to break loose this season...
Either weather wise or on this forum!
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#2763
Jesse

Posted Today, 05:18 PM

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Get ready for another lame January.


I was born ready.

#2764
Geos

Posted Today, 06:22 PM

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San Juans getting some rain tonight.

 

ATX.N0Q.20180921.0219.gif


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Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 25.86", 09/16

Lowest Temp of Autumn 2018: 42°, 09/18

 

2017-2018 winter snowfall total: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam: http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2
https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#2765
ShawniganLake

Posted Today, 07:06 PM

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San Juans getting some rain tonight.

ATX.N0Q.20180921.0219.gif

A little more than 1/4” here today

#2766
Deweydog

Posted Today, 07:35 PM

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I was born ready.


I was born with eleven fingers.

Analog!!!

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#2767
Jesse

Posted Today, 08:19 PM

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I was born with eleven fingers.

Analog!!!


You weren’t born that winter though. ;)

#2768
Jginmartini

Posted Today, 08:27 PM

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I was born with eleven fingers.
Analog!!!


Has Inigo Montoya come looking for you?
Blast of Arctic air please

#2769
Deweydog

Posted Today, 09:07 PM

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You weren’t born that winter though. ;)


I was almost 11 when that winter came to pass...

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#2770
Jesse

Posted Today, 09:13 PM

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Trend toward keeping the highest heights offshore seems to be continuing on the 00Z GFS. Not quite to the backdoor action status of the Euro, though.


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#2771
Deweydog

Posted Today, 09:16 PM

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Next week's ridging definitely feels like a warning shot.

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#2772
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted Today, 09:22 PM

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GFS still has it completely dry here until well into the clown range.


Monmouth, Oregon cold season 17-18 Stats:

 

Coldest high: 34 (Dec 24)

Coldest low: 22 (Dec 11 & Feb 23)

Total snowfall: 1"

Last snowfall: February 21-22, 2018

Last accumulating snowfall on roads: March 6, 2017

Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)

Last White Christmas: 2008

 

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope