September 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[ShawniganLake]

I think November of 1985 had something interesting... might have been cold and snow? Not sure.

 

Might have also been followed by the driest December ever. Just a rumor.

Driest December ever was much more recent here. 2013.

[Jesse]

You only get one weather-related reverse psychology card per lifetime. Spend it wisely.

Pretty sure we blow through several decks a year around here.

[Phil]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I have to say I am 100% okay with how September played out. Another dry month, about average on temps, all in all a fairly typical September. I have enjoyed it, it has felt like autumn.

[Deweydog]

Pretty sure we blow through several decks a year around here.

Didn't wanna bum you out but Tropical Tidbits says you burned yours on a September 2007 trough.

[TT-SEA]

You only get one weather-related reverse psychology card per lifetime. Spend it wisely.

 

 

I am pretty sure that my east side reservation trick is weather-related reverse psychology... seems to work every time I use it.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

If this happened today, I bet it would be blamed on climate change.

 

http://www.providencejournal.com/article/20150920/ENTERTAINMENTLIFE/150929983?template=ampart&__twitter_impression=true

 

CNN is literally FAKE NEWS and I do not even say that in reference to politics. They had a headline on their website last week: "Don't believe in climate change? Just ask people in the Carolinas how real it is."

 

Yeah, because NC has never been hit by a category 1 storm before...

[TT-SEA]

I have to say I am 100% okay with how September played out. Another dry month, about average on temps, all in all a fairly typical September. I have enjoyed it, it has felt like autumn.

 

Gets dark pretty early now... and daylight comes pretty late.   Hard for it not to feel like fall.  

[Phil]

CNN is literally FAKE NEWS and I do not even say that in reference to politics. They had a headline on their website last week: "Don't believe in climate change? Just ask people in the Carolinas how real it is."

 

Yeah, because NC has never been hit by a category 1 storm before...

I’ll bet you at least a dozen Category 4-5 storms have rammed the Outer Banks over the last millennium. The shape of the coast there is literally shaped by the slew of hurricanes that have smashed the area since the end of the last ice age.

 

A major hurricane somehow managed to track up through here in the early 1400s. It’s easy to see in the Chesapeake Bay sediment record..would probably have been 15ft surge on the western shore, corresponding to a Cat3/Cat4 impact.

 

Coincidently, all of our oldest trees started growing right after that hurricane. There are no trees alive here today that pre-date the storm.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Gets dark pretty early now... and daylight comes pretty late.   Hard for it not to feel like fall.  

 

A few recent September's were very summery. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Hmm..that seems to fit with the tendencies in other plausible analog years (1985/86, 1996/97, 2006/07, 2014/15, etc, in addition to 1977/78).

 

Based on the convo here, I’m guessing 1985/86 and 1996/97 also had early season activity.

 

Correct, even Eugene/Springfield managed a couple inches in Nov of 85.  One of the few Nov events that was not solely Washington-based like the majority tend to be.

[TT-SEA]

00Z ECMWF shows a basically dry weekend for the region... maybe a few convective type showers on Sunday in southerly flow (mainly in WA and near the Cascades and along the coast) but it also shows plenty of sunshine on both days with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

[TT-SEA]

By far the wettest period on the 12Z ECMWF is Sunday night into Monday morning before everything shifts south and ridging builds back in.

 

 

 

 

Update - the Sunday night and Monday rain is much farther south on the 00Z ECMWF... its actually sunny on Monday for most everyone.   

 

Here are the highs on Monday on the 00Z run:

 

  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Update - the Sunday night and Monday rain is much farther south on the 00Z ECMWF... its actually sunny on Monday for most everyone.   

 

Here are the highs on Monday on the 00Z run:

 

  

 

Jesse just barfed.

[TT-SEA]

Jesse just barfed.

 

Really good news for northern California though.   

[Jesse]

I just barfed.

Sorry bud. It will get better...hopefully,

[TT-SEA]

Sorry bud. It will get better...hopefully,

It will probably rain all of November and December. But that does not seem to help down there at all if next summer is hot and dry again.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

It will probably rain all of November and December. But that does not seem to help down there at all if next summer is hot and dry again.

 

I doubt it rains all of November and December down here.

[El_Nina]

my bro in law is there for a conference. Do you do financial planning ?

No, just a vacation.

[El_Nina]

The weather is really growing on me here.

[Phil]

[Geos]

Foggy, cool morning here.

[Blizzard777]

Very still outside this morning

Clear skies and currently 44* with a low of 42*

Looking forward to cleaning up the veggie garden today

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Not sure of the cultivar (planted in 2001) but they've sure had a hard time with anthracnose. This poor tree is barely hanging on (photo taken this morning):

 

 

Now waiting for inevitable snarky comment about whether this has changed to the House and Garden forum.

It was the secondary Seahawks forum before that.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

A really good regional soaking the middle of next week on the 12z.

 

[TT-SEA]

A really good regional soaking the middle of next week on the 12z.

 

 

Chasing carrots right now... the weekend and early next week look very wet on previous runs and now it looks basically dry.

 

Side note... the 12Z ICON goes back to ridging quickly next week.    The 00Z EPS also went back to ridging early next week and stayed that way through the end of the run.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Chasing carrots right now... the weekend and early next week look very wet on previous runs and now it looks basically dry.

 

Side note... the 12Z ICON goes back to ridging quickly next week.    The 00Z EPS also went back to ridging early next week and stayed that way through the end of the run.  

 

Sorry Tim. I forgot, it is never going to rain again. 

[Phil]

Not sure of the cultivar (planted in 2001) but they've sure had a hard time with anthracnose. This poor tree is barely hanging on (photo taken this morning):

 

 

Now waiting for inevitable snarky comment about whether this has changed to the House and Garden forum.

Hard to tell, but I think that’s the Columbia cultivar. Certainly not a happy tree..are there any brown spots on the fallen leaves?

 

Here’s a pic of ours from 9/7..the leaf loss is more uniform but the tree was ~ 65% bare (more like 90% now, will take a new pic today).

 

[TT-SEA]

Sorry Tim. I forgot, it is never going to rain again.

It has rained plenty this month!

 

But we are just discussing how the pattern evolves next week. Not forever.

[Phil]

Based on the way the leaves have fallen off the end of the branches like that, it looks like the tree might have root issues or is suffering from drought stress. When sap flow is compromised, the leaves farther up the tree and towards the ends of branches are the first to be affected.

 

So I think it’s more than just anthracose that’s affecting your London Plane, tbh.

[TT-SEA]

FWIW... the 00Z EPS is adamant that ridging is returning.

 

Here is the 10-15 day 850mb temp mean...

 

[Front Ranger]

I have to say I am 100% okay with how September played out. Another dry month, about average on temps, all in all a fairly typical September. I have enjoyed it, it has felt like autumn.

 

September has actually become one of the more reliable months to not blowtorch in recent years. 3 of the last 4 Septembers have now been near normal to below across the region.

 

And even blowtorchy Sep 2017 turned fall-like by mid month.

[Phil]

FWIW... the 00Z EPS is adamant that ridging is returning.

 

Here is the 10-15 day 850mb temp mean...

 

That SE-ridge/Bermuda High and Baffin Island vortex has been so stubborn. Like a re-run of last year.

[Phil]

September has actually become one of the more reliable months to not blowtorch in recent years. 3 of the last 4 Septembers have now been near normal to below across the region.

 

And even blowtorchy Sep 2017 turned fall-like by mid month.

Interesting. It’s become *the most* reliable blowtorch month east of the Rockies. I think the belated seasonality of the WHEM ITCZ/z-cells is the reason for this particular flavor of early autumn anticyclonic wavebreaking and western troughing, year after year.

[Front Ranger]

Models are wildly different after day 7.

[Geos]

Went down to 46 this morning. Now the morning lows have been between 6:45 am and about 7:15 am. 

[El_Nina]

[Phil]

The Northwest Passage didn’t even come close to opening this year. Ice 3-4 meters thick remained in the channels throughout the melt season.

 

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/images/FullSize_CICE_combine_thick_SM_EN_20180924.png

[TT-SEA]

I've been able to acclimate to the humidity and I love how the weather is like clockwork. It rains at basically the same time every day. The lightning is my favorite part though, it's a guarantee every day. I could live here, I'm gonna consider a move.

 

Wow!  

 

Someone who lamented the oppressive nature of our April weather with dewpoints in the mid-40s is now considering a move to Florida.   

 

I could really enjoy the weather in Florida as well... but I am not too keen on endless swamps and a complete lack of mountains (or even hills).    I could probably handle living right on the beach there.  

[Geos]

That SE-ridge/Bermuda High and Baffin Island vortex has been so stubborn. Like a re-run of last year.

 

Need to go retrograde that vortex back to like Alberta. 

 

Nice taste of winter for the Canadian Rockies.