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September 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

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#4201
Jesse

Posted 30 September 2018 - 03:18 PM

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Nice day. Partly cloudy and 68 with a light east wind, after morning showers and a low of 51.

#4202
TT-SEA

Posted 30 September 2018 - 03:19 PM

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Do you guys all watch sporting events with your phones opened up to a weather forum? :lol:

 

 

Laptop on coffee table in front of big screen TV.    :)

 

Its just a way of sharing the experience.  



#4203
TT-SEA

Posted 30 September 2018 - 03:27 PM

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65 and partly sunny here... had a few sprinkles today but almost entirely dry.

 

nb_9-30.png



#4204
ShawniganLake

Posted 30 September 2018 - 03:41 PM

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Snowing at our cabin up the Cariboo again. Second time this year. Seems very early. 2” forecast tonight and another 2” tomorrow.
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#4205
Farmboy

Posted 30 September 2018 - 04:00 PM

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Apparently no one has seen the 18z. I can't post the maps from my phone, but it looked like quite the cornucopia of cold starting around hr. 162 or so...

Heat waves in the summer, Arctic outbreaks in the winter!


#4206
TT-SEA

Posted 30 September 2018 - 04:25 PM

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Looks like SEA will end the water year about +1.80

#4207
ShawniganLake

Posted 30 September 2018 - 04:25 PM

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Apparently no one has seen the 18z. I can't post the maps from my phone, but it looked like quite the cornucopia of cold starting around hr. 162 or so...

I’m sure people saw it. Might be too early in the season for people to get excited about chilly weather

#4208
Jesse

Posted 30 September 2018 - 04:27 PM

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I’m sure people saw it. Might be too early in the season for people to get excited about chilly weather


I would prefer more rain at this point.

#4209
Deweydog

Posted 30 September 2018 - 04:28 PM

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Today's sports talk is solely responsible for the lack of thundersnow at my house today.

Thanks, A-holes...
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All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#4210
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 30 September 2018 - 04:51 PM

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It would be even more unbelievable if it actually verified.
I’m not sure how long you’ve actually been following the weather but I’m pretty sure 2008 had some pretty significant late summer and early fall troughs


I didn't start seriously following the weather until 2010. I've taken it even more serious the past few years. In 2008, I remember not looking at the models and forums until November. If that's true then that's a good sign because everybody got a good pounding in December 2008.

#4211
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 30 September 2018 - 04:53 PM

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I didn't start seriously following the weather until 2010. I've taken it even more serious the past few years. In 2008, I remember not looking at the models and forums until November. If that's true then that's a good sign because everybody got a good pounding in December 2008.


Not Eugene/Springfield apparently. I didn't live here then but the locals talk about their last great snow as being way further back.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 18-19 Stats:

Coldest high: 54 (Oct 5)
Coldest low: 35 (Oct 15)
Total snowfall: 0"
Last accumulating snowfall: February 21-22, 2018
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 1985

Personal Stats:

Last accumulating snowfall : March 6, 2017
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 2008

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope


#4212
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 30 September 2018 - 04:56 PM

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Apparently no one has seen the 18z. I can't post the maps from my phone, but it looked like quite the cornucopia of cold starting around hr. 162 or so...


Nice backdoor cold shot. Sub 534 thickness west of the Cascades.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_42.png
gfs_T850a_nwus_43.png
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#4213
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 30 September 2018 - 05:00 PM

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Nice backdoor cold shot. Sub 534 thickness west of the Cascades.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_42.png
gfs_T850a_nwus_43.png


This pattern so early feels to me like it bodes poorly for later. Shooting our load before the action can get going.
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Springfield, Oregon cold season 18-19 Stats:

Coldest high: 54 (Oct 5)
Coldest low: 35 (Oct 15)
Total snowfall: 0"
Last accumulating snowfall: February 21-22, 2018
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 1985

Personal Stats:

Last accumulating snowfall : March 6, 2017
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 2008

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope


#4214
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 30 September 2018 - 05:09 PM

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Spent the afternoon with the folks in Monmouth. Headed home and, right on cue coming into Lane County, the sun comes out and it's probly 65% sunny as opposed to most of the valley.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 18-19 Stats:

Coldest high: 54 (Oct 5)
Coldest low: 35 (Oct 15)
Total snowfall: 0"
Last accumulating snowfall: February 21-22, 2018
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 1985

Personal Stats:

Last accumulating snowfall : March 6, 2017
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 2008

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope


#4215
VancouverIslandSouth

Posted 30 September 2018 - 05:29 PM

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Near constant rain/drizzle all day today, with humidity sticking around 97%. It's been a long time since we've had a day like this. Some legitimate drizzle out there now  :)



#4216
iFred

Posted 30 September 2018 - 05:39 PM

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This pattern so early feels to me like it bodes poorly for later. Shooting our load before the action can get going.


The other way you can think of it (or at least how it was spun on the east coast) is that this sets the tone for the season. 2-4 weeks of below normal, 1-2 to reset.
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#4217
Jginmartini

Posted 30 September 2018 - 06:38 PM

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This pattern so early feels to me like it bodes poorly for later. Shooting our load before the action can get going.


Let’s this pattern become the trend for the season
Blast of Arctic air please

#4218
BLI snowman

Posted 30 September 2018 - 06:41 PM

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Near constant rain/drizzle all day today, with humidity sticking around 97%. It's been a long time since we've had a day like this. Some legitimate drizzle out there now :)


Sounds beautiful.
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#4219
Jesse

Posted 30 September 2018 - 07:34 PM

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Sounds beautiful.


Can’t even remember the last time we had a day that nice.

#4220
Phil

Posted 30 September 2018 - 08:10 PM

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The other way you can think of it (or at least how it was spun on the east coast) is that this sets the tone for the season. 2-4 weeks of below normal, 1-2 to reset.


If that were true, then last winter would have been an absolute blast furnace on the east coast, since we roasted from mid-September through mid-November without any relent whatsoever.

This year has followed a similar script so far. 😒
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#4221
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 30 September 2018 - 09:32 PM

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Not Eugene/Springfield apparently. I didn't live here then but the locals talk about their last great snow as being way further back.


Their probably thinking January 1969. Blows everything out of the water. Over 3 feet of snow January 25 to 27 and 47.1" for the month.
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#4222
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 30 September 2018 - 09:39 PM

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This pattern so early feels to me like it bodes poorly for later. Shooting our load before the action can get going.


I understand your concerns but to me it's a good sign we are starting to see lots of blocking up in Alaska already. Sure, we need the rain but do we really want zonal flow for most of Autumn and then magically hope the pattern changes for December? From now through the first half of Winter, I don't think the overall pattern will drastically change much.
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#4223
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 30 September 2018 - 09:45 PM

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The 00z GEM goes absolutely nuts. Sub 528 thickness west of the Cascades. This is starting to get ridiculous.

gem_z500a_namer_39.png
gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_38.png
gem_T850a_nwus_40.png
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#4224
Jesse

Posted 30 September 2018 - 09:46 PM

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I understand your concerns but to me it's a good sign we are starting to see lots of blocking up in Alaska already. Sure, we need the rain but do we really want zonal flow for most of Autumn and then magically hope the pattern changes for December? From now through the first half of Winter, I don't think the overall pattern will drastically change much.


In 1949-50, the pattern changed a lot between November and January. Magic may or may not have been involved.
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#4225
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 30 September 2018 - 11:09 PM

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Their probably thinking January 1969. Blows everything out of the water. Over 3 feet of snow January 25 to 27 and 47.1" for the month.

 

Wondering how an event like that is possible? Low stalls off the coast of Cape Blanco with a subtropical moisture plume to the south, coupled with a backdoor blowing continental air offshore?


Springfield, Oregon cold season 18-19 Stats:

Coldest high: 54 (Oct 5)
Coldest low: 35 (Oct 15)
Total snowfall: 0"
Last accumulating snowfall: February 21-22, 2018
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 1985

Personal Stats:

Last accumulating snowfall : March 6, 2017
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 2008

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope


#4226
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 01 October 2018 - 02:51 AM

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In 1949-50, the pattern changed a lot between November and January. Magic may or may not have been involved.


The point I was getting at was that it's not necessarily a bad thing to see very cold anomalies for this time of year and in this case for October with what some of the model runs are showing.

Speaking of that Winter, October 1949 had a significant cold snap that month. If I'm not mistaken 1949 still holds 5 days of record lows that month, the most for any year.

Oct 16: 34
Oct 18: 31
Oct 19: 27
Oct 20: 28
Oct 21: 30

#4227
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 01 October 2018 - 03:07 AM

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Wondering how an event like that is possible? Low stalls off the coast of Cape Blanco with a subtropical moisture plume to the south, coupled with a backdoor blowing continental air offshore?


Here's a link where you can see the weather maps for that time frame. You just need to have the djvu plug-in. I downloaded it from the app store and it works like a charm.

https://library.noaa...ly-Weather-Maps

All I know from reading up on that event was that it came as a shock to many. Here's an article about that epic event.

"The forecast for Saturday, Jan. 25, called for, “Increasing clouds, chance of snow.” Maybe as much as 2.3 inches of snow by noon, the forecast said. Instead, the forecast would have been more accurate if it had included another foot between noon and midnight. But what kind of nutty weatherman was going to predict that?"

"Even Florence Florence! got 14 inches over the course of the blizzard. In the first 24 hours of the snowstorm, Eugene-Springfield got 22.9 inches."

"Predicting a snowstorm like that which caught forecasters from Roseburg to British Columbia by surprise is about as easy as predicting Earth’s final days, says Clinton Rockey, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Portland who keeps Oregon snow records all the way back to the late 19th century."

http://special.regis...42-35/story.csp
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#4228
Geos

Posted 01 October 2018 - 05:45 AM

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Here's a link where you can see the weather maps for that time frame. You just need to have the djvu plug-in. I downloaded it from the app store and it works like a charm.

https://library.noaa...ly-Weather-Maps

All I know from reading up on that event was that it came as a shock to many. Here's an article about that epic event.

"The forecast for Saturday, Jan. 25, called for, “Increasing clouds, chance of snow.” Maybe as much as 2.3 inches of snow by noon, the forecast said. Instead, the forecast would have been more accurate if it had included another foot between noon and midnight. But what kind of nutty weatherman was going to predict that?"

"Even Florence Florence! got 14 inches over the course of the blizzard. In the first 24 hours of the snowstorm, Eugene-Springfield got 22.9 inches."

"Predicting a snowstorm like that which caught forecasters from Roseburg to British Columbia by surprise is about as easy as predicting Earth’s final days, says Clinton Rockey, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Portland who keeps Oregon snow records all the way back to the late 19th century."

http://special.regis...42-35/story.csp


Fascinating read, thanks for posting.

Little bit damp this morning here.
  • Frontal Snowsquall likes this

Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 27.16", 10/9

Lowest Temp of Autumn 2018: 36°, 10/03

 

2017-2018 winter snowfall total: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam: http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2
https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#4229
daniel1

Posted 01 October 2018 - 06:11 AM

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The first half of October is looking good at this point. Looks like we have a great shot at the coveted hot July / cold October combo this year. Combine that with 8-9 winter, very low (and still declining solar), and diminishing likelihood of an El Nino and we have a pretty nice recipe for this winter. I have felt for a while now we would see a noteworthy cold shot during the autumn and the models have certainly been hinting at it.


Lol at you saying diminishing likelihood of an El Niño. Keep wishcasting some more.

#4230
Phil

Posted 01 October 2018 - 06:39 AM

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Lol at you saying diminishing likelihood of an El Niño. Keep wishcasting some more.


Does it matter if we end up with a weak niño instead of a warm neutral? The difference is trivial in the end (as far as observable weather/climate tendencies are concerned).
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#4231
daniel1

Posted 01 October 2018 - 06:42 AM

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Does it matter if we end up with a weak niño instead of a warm neutral? The difference is trivial in the end (as far as observable weather/climate tendencies are concerned).

Everything is pointing to El Niño strengthening to at least weak strength. Yes I think it does matter in the grand scheme of things. The atmosphere is ready to transition to El Niño later in October.

#4232
Phil

Posted 01 October 2018 - 08:05 AM

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Everything is pointing to El Niño strengthening to at least weak strength. Yes I think it does matter in the grand scheme of things. The atmosphere is ready to transition to El Niño later in October.


Huh? It’s already transitioned into a niño-like state. We have WHEM forcing and WPAC subsidence ongoing as we speak.

Are you referring to the -EPO/SE-ridge pattern resembling a niña? If so, that’s merely a product of the poleward displaced ITCZ/z-cells and the ongoing poleward propagation of +AAM. This has little to do with ENSO, and more to do with subseasonal variability and the seasonal cycle itself.
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#4233
Front Ranger

Posted 01 October 2018 - 08:56 AM

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Not Eugene/Springfield apparently. I didn't live here then but the locals talk about their last great snow as being way further back.


2013-14.

Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#4234
Geos

Posted 01 October 2018 - 09:31 AM

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1.46" of rain here for this month. Not nearly as wet as the area north or towards the foothills. 

 

Month was slight below normal here. 


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 27.16", 10/9

Lowest Temp of Autumn 2018: 36°, 10/03

 

2017-2018 winter snowfall total: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam: http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2
https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history