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October 2018 Observations and Discussion

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#1
Tom

Posted 22 September 2018 - 03:37 AM

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I've decided to fire up the October discussion a little earlier than normal.  With that being said, I feel that during this month, nature will be ahead of schedule in terms of the seasonal transition from Autumn into early Winter?  Let's begin...

 

Today, marks a very interesting day, the sun will set across the North Pole as twilight will continue until early October once darkness completely takes over.  In terms of the LRC, Gary Lezak believes this is when the new LRC begins across the far northern latitudes.  It takes about a few days into October to see the effects of this new pattern across the mid latitudes.  Keeping that in mind, it is fun trying to figure out what the "new" pattern will look like so I'd like to dive into that right now.

 

Over the last week or so, there has been a stout Bearing Sea/Aleutian Ridge which suggests to me that we will open the new LRC pattern with an impressive EC Ridge, which will encourage the main storm track across the central CONUS.  I'm looking for an active opening to the month of October as an almost certain SE ridge will keep the storm track in check across our sub.

 

gfs-ens_z500a_npac_13.png

 

gfs-ens_z500a_npac_21.png

 

 

We are starting to get in the range of the longer guidance and last night's 00z GEFS are showing the EC ridge signal.  How strong will it be???  There are still some underlining factors that can influence this pattern as we open up October, however, I'm pretty confident that we will have a severe wx threat across the Plains during this period.  A clash of early season cold against a late season push of summer should provide some atmospheric fireworks.

 

gfs-ens_z500aMean_namer_12.png

 

This pattern almost has a La Nina look to it, but it won't last as the Bearing Sea trough replaces the ridge....guess when...today, right when the sun sets across the North Pole and the "new" LRC begins!  Fascinating stuff.

 

gfs-ens_z500a_npac_5.png


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#2
Thunder98

Posted 22 September 2018 - 05:15 AM

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Is there going to be any Typhoons recurves in October that makes significant impacts in North America?

#3
Tom

Posted 22 September 2018 - 06:27 AM

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Is there going to be any Typhoons recurves in October that makes significant impacts in North America?


Yes, in the Day 7-10 range, there is one strong Super Typhoon expected to target Japan and then re-curve somewhat. I’m keeping an eye on it as to how it tracks.

#4
Tom

Posted 22 September 2018 - 09:17 AM

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These trends in the temps from the CFSv2 are certainly bringing back memories of  '13-'14 when the model behaved in a similar way...

 

summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201810.gif

 

 

The establishment of the North American Vortex is a clear sign this will be a dominant player on our side of the Globe.  

 

CFSv2.z700.20180922.201810.gif


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#5
Tom

Posted 24 September 2018 - 03:37 AM

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Tis the season for Bearing Sea monsters???  I have long believed this would be the ideal season to see some powerhouse storm systems across the N PAC, at times, influenced by very strong re-curving Typhoons.  We saw this with Super Typhoon Nuri (https://www.washingt...m=.d5bf724c182d )back in Nov '14 that kicked off a very cold period following this storm system across the CONUS. 

 

Here is a Nov '14 temp departures map...

 

Nov14TDeptUS.png

 

 

Now, with that in mind, if the models are right about the Super Typhoon that is forecast to track near Japan and then re-curve into the Bearing Sea during the opening days of October, this leads me to believe a major trough may engulf the nation post Oct 15-17th.  Let's see where this system tracks before getting to excited about this potential down the road.  There is a lot on the table this month for brewing up some strong Autumn storms.  Possibly some wintry ones???

 

gfs_mslpaNorm_npac_37.png


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#6
jaster220

Posted 24 September 2018 - 09:03 AM

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Tom said:

 

Tis the season for Bearing Sea monsters???

 

:lol:  :lol:  Kudos if you came up with that on your ownsome. That's quite the beast too. The Nov '14 results were extremely frustrating for mby so not going there, lol


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#7
Tom

Posted 24 September 2018 - 09:44 AM

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Tom said:


:lol: :lol: Kudos if you came up with that on your ownsome. That's quite the beast too. The Nov '14 results were extremely frustrating for mby so not going there, lol


Actually, I did make that up this morning. Ha! Thanks man. This month is gonna be fun.
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#8
hlcater

Posted 24 September 2018 - 10:14 AM

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Tis the season for Bearing Sea monsters???  I have long believed this would be the ideal season to see some powerhouse storm systems across the N PAC, at times, influenced by very strong re-curving Typhoons.  We saw this with Super Typhoon Nuri (https://www.washingt...m=.d5bf724c182d )back in Nov '14 that kicked off a very cold period following this storm system across the CONUS. 

 

Here is a Nov '14 temp departures map...

 

Nov14TDeptUS.png

 

 

Now, with that in mind, if the models are right about the Super Typhoon that is forecast to track near Japan and then re-curve into the Bearing Sea during the opening days of October, this leads me to believe a major trough may engulf the nation post Oct 15-17th.  Let's see where this system tracks before getting to excited about this potential down the road.  There is a lot on the table this month for brewing up some strong Autumn storms.  Possibly some wintry ones???

 

gfs_mslpaNorm_npac_37.png

I'd be down for some strong autumn storms, primarily for warm sector severe weather. Been a few years since the area's last real good fall system. Just gotta get the gulf to play ball.


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2018-19 Snowfall: 

TOTAL: 3.5"

 

(Nov. 9: 0.6") (Nov. 17: 2.9")

Formerly NWLinn


#9
OKwx2k4

Posted 24 September 2018 - 02:42 PM

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That's a full-on Bering Sea Hurricane. Very very nice! We're all about to get a very rude awakening.
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#10
Tom

Posted 25 September 2018 - 03:23 AM

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As a weather enthusiast, I'll be really honest with ya'll, how could you not get excited about an opening to a new month which provides crucial details of the developing cyclical pattern???  Over the course of the next 6-8 weeks, we will see the evolution of the '18-'19 LRC pattern, of which, will open in a very active and chilly way depending on your location.  How could you not get excited when you see a upper jet pattern like this for what will likely be the 1st days of the new pattern???

 

 

Split Flow across the E PAC, developing STJ off the coast near the Baja of CA/SW, northern polar branch crashing into the lower 48 and marrying with southern branch???  I have not seen a pattern as such right at the opening of October.  Giddy up, we are on the verge of a Spectacular showcasing from Ma Nature.  #naturesfury  #Octobrrrr  #winteriscoming

 

gfs-ens_uv250_namer_41.png

 

 

gfs-ens_uv250_namer_53.png

 

 

 

gfs-ens_apcpna_namer_8.png

 

gfs-ens_T2maMean_namer_10.png


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#11
Hawkeye

Posted 25 September 2018 - 04:58 AM

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The operational runs of the models are still fluctuating quite a bit into early October.  The euro had been showing 60s and very wet, but the latest run went much less wet and 80 degrees.  The last two op GFS runs, a week out, went from showing a front in Tennessee with a high of 49, to a front in northern Minnesota with highs in the mid 80s.  The ensembles have shown a huge spread beyond day five.


season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#12
james1976

Posted 25 September 2018 - 06:41 AM

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The operational runs of the models are still fluctuating quite a bit into early October. The euro had been showing 60s and very wet, but the latest run went much less wet and 80 degrees. The last two op GFS runs, a week out, went from showing a front in Tennessee with a high of 49, to a front in northern Minnesota with highs in the mid 80s. The ensembles have shown a huge spread beyond day five.

DMX is siding with the warmer side for next week....at least for now.

#13
Iowawx

Posted 25 September 2018 - 06:42 AM

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The GFS has been showing the new tropical storm in the pacific making landfall in far northern Baja California and then the moisture from that storm move up from the Southwest to the midwest next week. That brings heavy rain. 



#14
jaster220

Posted 25 September 2018 - 07:00 AM

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The operational runs of the models are still fluctuating quite a bit into early October.  The euro had been showing 60s and very wet, but the latest run went much less wet and 80 degrees.  The last two op GFS runs, a week out, went from showing a front in Tennessee with a high of 49, to a front in northern Minnesota with highs in the mid 80s.  The ensembles have shown a huge spread beyond day five.

 

Could be that the pattern transition Tom's pointing to is indeed throwing the Op's some curve balls. Or, the GEFS are just being typically aggressive with the early season cold. Looks like we'll have to wait a bit for our answer. 



#15
jaster220

Posted 25 September 2018 - 07:02 AM

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As a weather enthusiast, I'll be really honest with ya'll, how could you not get excited about an opening to a new month which provides crucial details of the developing cyclical pattern???  Over the course of the next 6-8 weeks, we will see the evolution of the '18-'19 LRC pattern, of which, will open in a very active and chilly way depending on your location.  How could you not get excited when you see a upper jet pattern like this for what will likely be the 1st days of the new pattern???

 

 

Split Flow across the E PAC, developing STJ off the coast near the Baja of CA/SW, northern polar branch crashing into the lower 48 and marrying with southern branch???  I have not seen a pattern as such right at the opening of October.  Giddy up, we are on the verge of a Spectacular showcasing from Ma Nature.  #naturesfury  #Octobrrrr  #winteriscoming

 

gfs-ens_uv250_namer_41.png

 

 

gfs-ens_uv250_namer_53.png

 

 

 

gfs-ens_apcpna_namer_8.png

 

gfs-ens_T2maMean_namer_10.png

 

She's a beaut, Clark!  Now to just get it to verify from 300+ hours  ;)  I'm cheering for the GEFS in this case. That'd be one sweet pattern to kick off the new LRC  :o


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#16
james1976

Posted 25 September 2018 - 09:21 AM

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12z GFS is one heck of a wild ride! Lots of systems in the midwest including a powerhouse. Can we lock it in? Lol

#17
Tom

Posted 25 September 2018 - 09:29 AM

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12z GFS is one heck of a wild ride! Lots of systems in the midwest including a powerhouse. Can we lock it in? Lol


Im looking for the models to hone in on a potential biggie around the 7th or so. Wintry cutter is on the table.

#18
james1976

Posted 25 September 2018 - 09:39 AM

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Im looking for the models to hone in on a potential biggie around the 7th or so. Wintry cutter is on the table.

Yeah the powerhouse i was referring to i believe was showing up at about that timeframe. Was showing snow for the Dakotas. Obviously its long range so we'll see.

#19
james1976

Posted 25 September 2018 - 09:42 AM

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@Tom
What system in the long range do you think will kickstart the new pattern? The one around the 7th or something else?
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#20
gabel23

Posted 25 September 2018 - 10:01 AM

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Lock this in for October and we are all chearing! Brett Anderson of Accu-weather still seeing a cold and wet beginning start to the month. 

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#21
LNK_Weather

Posted 25 September 2018 - 10:11 AM

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I'll pass on 12Z GFS. Most of the systems miss us completely. Also highs in the mid-80s multiple days. No thanks. I'd rather have cold and dry this time of year than Summer.


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 7.1"             Coldest Low: 7*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#22
jaster220

Posted 25 September 2018 - 10:27 AM

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12z GFS is one heck of a wild ride! Lots of systems in the midwest including a powerhouse. Can we lock it in? Lol

 

Im looking for the models to hone in on a potential biggie around the 7th or so. Wintry cutter is on the table.

 

:lol:  Gonna make me model look in Sept?? 


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#23
jaster220

Posted 25 September 2018 - 10:44 AM

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Sheesh, west NE peeps say hello to flakes. What is this, Dec 8th??  :lol:

 

Attached File  20180925 GFS Oct 8 or Dec 8.PNG   200.56KB   5 downloads


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#24
gabel23

Posted 25 September 2018 - 10:49 AM

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Sheesh, west NE peeps say hello to flakes. What is this, Dec 8th??  :lol:

 

attachicon.gif20180925 GFS Oct 8 or Dec 8.PNG

I'm hoping so!! Back in October 2009 North Platte received 30" of snow for the month. We all know what that winter was like around these parts. We also seen an extreme dip to negative in October, December, and Jan. in the AO/NAO. 


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#25
Niko

Posted 25 September 2018 - 10:53 AM

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Sheesh, west NE peeps say hello to flakes. What is this, Dec 8th??  :lol:

 

attachicon.gif20180925 GFS Oct 8 or Dec 8.PNG

Wow!



#26
Niko

Posted 25 September 2018 - 10:54 AM

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Lock this in for October and we are all chearing! Brett Anderson of Accu-weather still seeing a cold and wet beginning start to the month. 

I like the fact that Alaska is warm. They are warm, we get the cold.


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#27
james1976

Posted 25 September 2018 - 10:58 AM

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Sheesh, west NE peeps say hello to flakes. What is this, Dec 8th?? :lol:

20180925 GFS Oct 8 or Dec 8.PNG

Boom! More like ALL of NE haha. Too bad its hr 312. Regardless its definitely a sign of things to come.

#28
Tom

Posted 25 September 2018 - 11:18 AM

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@Tom
What system in the long range do you think will kickstart the new pattern? The one around the 7th or something else?


Ya, I think so. It usually begins around that timeframe but that tropical system coming up from near the Baja is something different from the current pattern so it may also be part of the “new” pattern mixing in with the very tail end of the old pattern.
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#29
jaster220

Posted 25 September 2018 - 11:27 AM

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Ya, I think so. It usually begins around that timeframe but that tropical system coming up from near the Baja is something different from the current pattern so it may also be part of the “new” pattern mixing in with the very tail end of the old pattern.

 

One can only hope. That's been the S. Stream player that's been missing in action during some otherwise stellar winters around the Lakes. 


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#30
james1976

Posted 25 September 2018 - 11:42 AM

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I guess Ill post this here since October is when the new LRC begins. Lezak just updated his blog today. Ill post a link.
http://weatherblog.kshb.com/

#31
OKwx2k4

Posted 25 September 2018 - 04:29 PM

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Just holy moly is all I can say. In other words warm runs in the short-term are a head-fake at this time. The future looks cold and amazing! Saddle up folks. Hopefully I have me a shovel and yardstick planted by November. :lol: #semiserious

This is going to be the best October ever for me weather wise.
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#32
OKwx2k4

Posted 25 September 2018 - 04:32 PM

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I'm hoping so!! Back in October 2009 North Platte received 30" of snow for the month. We all know what that winter was like around these parts. We also seen an extreme dip to negative in October, December, and Jan. in the AO/NAO.

2009, 2000 are my top two familiar (modern) analogs. Saddle up. :D

Others....1978, 1911, 1899. Early 60s from 1961-64, 84-85 blend make the list. Craziest stuff ever.
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#33
CentralNebWeather

Posted 25 September 2018 - 05:25 PM

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Boom! More like ALL of NE haha. Too bad its hr 312. Regardless its definitely a sign of things to come.


Nice eye candy.

#34
OKwx2k4

Posted 25 September 2018 - 08:37 PM

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I and the folks in KS and Nebraska may have to get through one more little heat blast but on tonight's 00z, it looks to get thoroughly smashed rather quickly.

#35
OKwx2k4

Posted 25 September 2018 - 08:40 PM

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Tropical activity and AO fluctuation going to cause model issues.

I have to take back something I've said, also. The AO is not actually falling since June but HAS been exhibiting every behavior one likes to see if they hope for an AO dive in October. I think it's on the table.

#36
OKwx2k4

Posted 25 September 2018 - 08:43 PM

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Ya, I think so. It usually begins around that timeframe but that tropical system coming up from near the Baja is something different from the current pattern so it may also be part of the “new” pattern mixing in with the very tail end of the old pattern.


Thinking of this for a bit, I'd have to agree. I've been waiting for the part of the cycle that brings one all the way from the west through here. To sort of connect things. We'll have to see if it verifies.

#37
Tom

Posted 26 September 2018 - 04:58 AM

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@LNKWx, how did the Euro weeklies look on Monday?

#38
Niko

Posted 26 September 2018 - 06:08 AM

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Hello October. Fun month for me as scary movies begin to set in and people start decorating their houses all spooky and all, especially preparing the pumpkins. Hearing the songs of horror in the background (Halloween) especially......

https://www.google.c...ZtOnMF88F2t6I2y



#39
LNK_Weather

Posted 26 September 2018 - 08:21 AM

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@LNKWx, how did the Euro weeklies look on Monday?


I'll check on that for ya when I get back to the hotel.
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>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 7.1"             Coldest Low: 7*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#40
james1976

Posted 26 September 2018 - 09:07 AM

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Next week is starting to look warm and wet. Bottom really drops off after that. Long range but fun to look at.

#41
GDR

Posted 26 September 2018 - 11:09 AM

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MJO says not so fast cold! Looks to be in a warmer phase for a while but wetter.

#42
Hawkeye

Posted 26 September 2018 - 11:42 AM

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Next week is starting to look warm and wet. Bottom really drops off after that. Long range but fun to look at.

 

Definitely warm.  The euro now has 70s to low 80s for four days.  However, south of hw20 in Iowa, it's not wet.  The euro has become drier every run for me, now showing only an inch over the next ten days.


season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#43
jaster220

Posted 26 September 2018 - 12:34 PM

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That's fine, let's not burn cold spells at a time when it's meaningless. Now, get me another 6 wks into Autumn, and cold waves can mean something, even here in The Mitt



#44
Tom

Posted 27 September 2018 - 03:12 AM

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After analyzing the latest JMA weeklies, the BSR may have been a good long lead forecasting tool to predict a stout SE ridge to open up October.  About a week ago, when I saw the impressive Aleutian Ridge, I began to ponder on the idea that the new developing cyclical  '18-'19 LRC may in fact open up with an EC ridge.  The model is predicting a strong SE ridge through at least the first 2 weeks of October, maybe even the entire month???  While I don't necessarily believe there will be such a strong signal for a SE ridge through Weeks 3 & 4, due in part by using the BSR as guidance, it may be somewhat present bc the waters are so warm along the EC.

 

The maps below show a fascinating amplified North American pattern with a major ridge along NW NAMER and into the Arctic, driving a deep trough all the way through Canada and into the deep SW...SW Flow is a great sign for our subforum.

Temps Week 2...

 

Y201809.D2612_gl2.png

 

 

Temps Week 3 & 4...

 

Y201809.D2612_gl2.png

 

 

 

Precip over the next 4 weeks are abundant across practically the entire CONUS...here's a 30 day mean (MW/GL's bullseye)

 

Y201809.D2612_gl0.png



#45
Niko

Posted 27 September 2018 - 05:32 AM

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October tends to be a dry month. None much going on. I'd prefer it goes dry and coolish and save all that cold air for later in Novemba!!!


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#46
Hawkeye

Posted 27 September 2018 - 09:57 AM

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Apparently, the Euro is about to go to four runs per day.


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season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#47
james1976

Posted 27 September 2018 - 10:37 AM

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Apparently, the Euro is about to go to four runs per day.

Just in time for the cold season haha
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#48
Thunder98

Posted 27 September 2018 - 01:30 PM

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October looks snowy in Minot, North Dakota

 

Attached File  MinotNDwxforecast3.PNG   71.73KB   0 downloads


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#49
Tom

Posted 28 September 2018 - 03:10 AM

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A taste of #IndianSummer mid week next week???  For those who will experience their first Freeze of the season this weekend, will have an opportunity to experience some rather warm weather early/mid next week out ahead of a storm system coming out of the SW.  Remnants of #Rosa coming out of the desert SW will interact with the a deep trough coming down out of SW Canada, pumping a healthy ridge out ahead of this system.  This may in fact be our 1st storm system of the '18/'19 LRC pattern.  A solid SW Flow has been my early guess from a couple weeks ago and it looks like its panning out.  This pattern may stay put through about the 10th of the month before I believe the nation is engulfed by a major trough-like pattern.

 

What is quite amazing by this 500mb pattern, is the magnitude of the Blocking pattern across the North Pole, EC Ridge, Hudson Bay Vortex and the NW NAMER Ridge...What a beauty of a pattern which will likely be Exhibit A of the new LRC....

 

ecmwf_z500a_namer_7.png

 

But wait, is there another system right on its heels???  Another cutter in the making...this pattern is going to busy right at the open...and if things line up just right, there may be yet another E PAC tropical system that comes out of the SW during the 2nd week of October.  You can't ask for a better pattern.

 

gfs-ens_mslpaNorm_us_33.png

 

 

ecmwf-ens_mslpaNorm_us_9.png


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#50
Tom

Posted 28 September 2018 - 03:27 AM

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The pattern setting up for this month is ripe for storm production and cold.  It took a while for the models to figure out what would happen with Super Typhoon Trami which, in turn, caused the models to flip back and forth during the extended forecast for our sub.  Now that we know it will be re-curving, I'm expecting cooler trends for Week 1-2 and the EPS is seeing this.  That's not all.  Is there another re-curving Typhoon on the table???  Giddy up...this pattern is loaded with storm potential...I'm stoked and fired up on the development of this pattern for our sub during this month.

 

eps_WPAC_current.png

 

 

2nd Typhoon targeting Japan Day 9-10....

 

ecmwf_mslpaNorm_npac_11.png


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