I've decided to fire up the October discussion a little earlier than normal. With that being said, I feel that during this month, nature will be ahead of schedule in terms of the seasonal transition from Autumn into early Winter? Let's begin...
Today, marks a very interesting day, the sun will set across the North Pole as twilight will continue until early October once darkness completely takes over. In terms of the LRC, Gary Lezak believes this is when the new LRC begins across the far northern latitudes. It takes about a few days into October to see the effects of this new pattern across the mid latitudes. Keeping that in mind, it is fun trying to figure out what the "new" pattern will look like so I'd like to dive into that right now.
Over the last week or so, there has been a stout Bearing Sea/Aleutian Ridge which suggests to me that we will open the new LRC pattern with an impressive EC Ridge, which will encourage the main storm track across the central CONUS. I'm looking for an active opening to the month of October as an almost certain SE ridge will keep the storm track in check across our sub.
We are starting to get in the range of the longer guidance and last night's 00z GEFS are showing the EC ridge signal. How strong will it be??? There are still some underlining factors that can influence this pattern as we open up October, however, I'm pretty confident that we will have a severe wx threat across the Plains during this period. A clash of early season cold against a late season push of summer should provide some atmospheric fireworks.
This pattern almost has a La Nina look to it, but it won't last as the Bearing Sea trough replaces the ridge....guess when...today, right when the sun sets across the North Pole and the "new" LRC begins! Fascinating stuff.