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October 2018 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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I've decided to fire up the October discussion a little earlier than normal.  With that being said, I feel that during this month, nature will be ahead of schedule in terms of the seasonal transition from Autumn into early Winter?  Let's begin...

 

Today, marks a very interesting day, the sun will set across the North Pole as twilight will continue until early October once darkness completely takes over.  In terms of the LRC, Gary Lezak believes this is when the new LRC begins across the far northern latitudes.  It takes about a few days into October to see the effects of this new pattern across the mid latitudes.  Keeping that in mind, it is fun trying to figure out what the "new" pattern will look like so I'd like to dive into that right now.

 

Over the last week or so, there has been a stout Bearing Sea/Aleutian Ridge which suggests to me that we will open the new LRC pattern with an impressive EC Ridge, which will encourage the main storm track across the central CONUS.  I'm looking for an active opening to the month of October as an almost certain SE ridge will keep the storm track in check across our sub.

 

gfs-ens_z500a_npac_13.png

 

gfs-ens_z500a_npac_21.png

 

 

We are starting to get in the range of the longer guidance and last night's 00z GEFS are showing the EC ridge signal.  How strong will it be???  There are still some underlining factors that can influence this pattern as we open up October, however, I'm pretty confident that we will have a severe wx threat across the Plains during this period.  A clash of early season cold against a late season push of summer should provide some atmospheric fireworks.

 

gfs-ens_z500aMean_namer_12.png

 

This pattern almost has a La Nina look to it, but it won't last as the Bearing Sea trough replaces the ridge....guess when...today, right when the sun sets across the North Pole and the "new" LRC begins!  Fascinating stuff.

 

gfs-ens_z500a_npac_5.png

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Is there going to be any Typhoons recurves in October that makes significant impacts in North America?

Yes, in the Day 7-10 range, there is one strong Super Typhoon expected to target Japan and then re-curve somewhat. I’m keeping an eye on it as to how it tracks.

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These trends in the temps from the CFSv2 are certainly bringing back memories of  '13-'14 when the model behaved in a similar way...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201810.gif

 

 

The establishment of the North American Vortex is a clear sign this will be a dominant player on our side of the Globe.  

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.z700.20180922.201810.gif

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Tis the season for Bearing Sea monsters???  I have long believed this would be the ideal season to see some powerhouse storm systems across the N PAC, at times, influenced by very strong re-curving Typhoons.  We saw this with Super Typhoon Nuri (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/12/14/bering-sea-bomb-cyclone-ties-record-for-strongest-storm-in-north-pacific/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.d5bf724c182d )back in Nov '14 that kicked off a very cold period following this storm system across the CONUS. 

 

Here is a Nov '14 temp departures map...

 

Nov14TDeptUS.png

 

 

Now, with that in mind, if the models are right about the Super Typhoon that is forecast to track near Japan and then re-curve into the Bearing Sea during the opening days of October, this leads me to believe a major trough may engulf the nation post Oct 15-17th.  Let's see where this system tracks before getting to excited about this potential down the road.  There is a lot on the table this month for brewing up some strong Autumn storms.  Possibly some wintry ones???

 

gfs_mslpaNorm_npac_37.png

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Tom said:

 

Tis the season for Bearing Sea monsters???

 

:lol:  :lol:  Kudos if you came up with that on your ownsome. That's quite the beast too. The Nov '14 results were extremely frustrating for mby so not going there, lol

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Tom said:

 

 

:lol: :lol: Kudos if you came up with that on your ownsome. That's quite the beast too. The Nov '14 results were extremely frustrating for mby so not going there, lol

Actually, I did make that up this morning. Ha! Thanks man. This month is gonna be fun.

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Tis the season for Bearing Sea monsters???  I have long believed this would be the ideal season to see some powerhouse storm systems across the N PAC, at times, influenced by very strong re-curving Typhoons.  We saw this with Super Typhoon Nuri (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/12/14/bering-sea-bomb-cyclone-ties-record-for-strongest-storm-in-north-pacific/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.d5bf724c182d )back in Nov '14 that kicked off a very cold period following this storm system across the CONUS. 

 

Here is a Nov '14 temp departures map...

 

Nov14TDeptUS.png

 

 

Now, with that in mind, if the models are right about the Super Typhoon that is forecast to track near Japan and then re-curve into the Bearing Sea during the opening days of October, this leads me to believe a major trough may engulf the nation post Oct 15-17th.  Let's see where this system tracks before getting to excited about this potential down the road.  There is a lot on the table this month for brewing up some strong Autumn storms.  Possibly some wintry ones???

 

gfs_mslpaNorm_npac_37.png

I'd be down for some strong autumn storms, primarily for warm sector severe weather. Been a few years since the area's last real good fall system. Just gotta get the gulf to play ball.

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2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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As a weather enthusiast, I'll be really honest with ya'll, how could you not get excited about an opening to a new month which provides crucial details of the developing cyclical pattern???  Over the course of the next 6-8 weeks, we will see the evolution of the '18-'19 LRC pattern, of which, will open in a very active and chilly way depending on your location.  How could you not get excited when you see a upper jet pattern like this for what will likely be the 1st days of the new pattern???

 

 

Split Flow across the E PAC, developing STJ off the coast near the Baja of CA/SW, northern polar branch crashing into the lower 48 and marrying with southern branch???  I have not seen a pattern as such right at the opening of October.  Giddy up, we are on the verge of a Spectacular showcasing from Ma Nature.  #naturesfury  #Octobrrrr  #winteriscoming

 

gfs-ens_uv250_namer_41.png

 

 

gfs-ens_uv250_namer_53.png

 

 

 

gfs-ens_apcpna_namer_8.png

 

gfs-ens_T2maMean_namer_10.png

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The operational runs of the models are still fluctuating quite a bit into early October.  The euro had been showing 60s and very wet, but the latest run went much less wet and 80 degrees.  The last two op GFS runs, a week out, went from showing a front in Tennessee with a high of 49, to a front in northern Minnesota with highs in the mid 80s.  The ensembles have shown a huge spread beyond day five.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The operational runs of the models are still fluctuating quite a bit into early October. The euro had been showing 60s and very wet, but the latest run went much less wet and 80 degrees. The last two op GFS runs, a week out, went from showing a front in Tennessee with a high of 49, to a front in northern Minnesota with highs in the mid 80s. The ensembles have shown a huge spread beyond day five.

DMX is siding with the warmer side for next week....at least for now.
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The operational runs of the models are still fluctuating quite a bit into early October.  The euro had been showing 60s and very wet, but the latest run went much less wet and 80 degrees.  The last two op GFS runs, a week out, went from showing a front in Tennessee with a high of 49, to a front in northern Minnesota with highs in the mid 80s.  The ensembles have shown a huge spread beyond day five.

 

Could be that the pattern transition Tom's pointing to is indeed throwing the Op's some curve balls. Or, the GEFS are just being typically aggressive with the early season cold. Looks like we'll have to wait a bit for our answer. 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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As a weather enthusiast, I'll be really honest with ya'll, how could you not get excited about an opening to a new month which provides crucial details of the developing cyclical pattern???  Over the course of the next 6-8 weeks, we will see the evolution of the '18-'19 LRC pattern, of which, will open in a very active and chilly way depending on your location.  How could you not get excited when you see a upper jet pattern like this for what will likely be the 1st days of the new pattern???

 

 

Split Flow across the E PAC, developing STJ off the coast near the Baja of CA/SW, northern polar branch crashing into the lower 48 and marrying with southern branch???  I have not seen a pattern as such right at the opening of October.  Giddy up, we are on the verge of a Spectacular showcasing from Ma Nature.  #naturesfury  #Octobrrrr  #winteriscoming

 

gfs-ens_uv250_namer_41.png

 

 

gfs-ens_uv250_namer_53.png

 

 

 

gfs-ens_apcpna_namer_8.png

 

gfs-ens_T2maMean_namer_10.png

 

She's a beaut, Clark!  Now to just get it to verify from 300+ hours  ;)  I'm cheering for the GEFS in this case. That'd be one sweet pattern to kick off the new LRC  :o

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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12z GFS is one heck of a wild ride! Lots of systems in the midwest including a powerhouse. Can we lock it in? Lol

 

Im looking for the models to hone in on a potential biggie around the 7th or so. Wintry cutter is on the table.

 

:lol:  Gonna make me model look in Sept?? 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Sheesh, west NE peeps say hello to flakes. What is this, Dec 8th??  :lol:

 

20180925 GFS Oct 8 or Dec 8.PNG

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Sheesh, west NE peeps say hello to flakes. What is this, Dec 8th??  :lol:

 

attachicon.gif20180925 GFS Oct 8 or Dec 8.PNG

I'm hoping so!! Back in October 2009 North Platte received 30" of snow for the month. We all know what that winter was like around these parts. We also seen an extreme dip to negative in October, December, and Jan. in the AO/NAO. 

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Lock this in for October and we are all chearing! Brett Anderson of Accu-weather still seeing a cold and wet beginning start to the month. 

I like the fact that Alaska is warm. They are warm, we get the cold.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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@Tom

What system in the long range do you think will kickstart the new pattern? The one around the 7th or something else?

Ya, I think so. It usually begins around that timeframe but that tropical system coming up from near the Baja is something different from the current pattern so it may also be part of the “new” pattern mixing in with the very tail end of the old pattern.

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Ya, I think so. It usually begins around that timeframe but that tropical system coming up from near the Baja is something different from the current pattern so it may also be part of the “new” pattern mixing in with the very tail end of the old pattern.

 

One can only hope. That's been the S. Stream player that's been missing in action during some otherwise stellar winters around the Lakes. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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I'm hoping so!! Back in October 2009 North Platte received 30" of snow for the month. We all know what that winter was like around these parts. We also seen an extreme dip to negative in October, December, and Jan. in the AO/NAO.

2009, 2000 are my top two familiar (modern) analogs. Saddle up. :D

 

Others....1978, 1911, 1899. Early 60s from 1961-64, 84-85 blend make the list. Craziest stuff ever.

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Ya, I think so. It usually begins around that timeframe but that tropical system coming up from near the Baja is something different from the current pattern so it may also be part of the “new” pattern mixing in with the very tail end of the old pattern.

Thinking of this for a bit, I'd have to agree. I've been waiting for the part of the cycle that brings one all the way from the west through here. To sort of connect things. We'll have to see if it verifies.

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Hello October. Fun month for me as scary movies begin to set in and people start decorating their houses all spooky and all, especially preparing the pumpkins. Hearing the songs of horror in the background (Halloween) especially......

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwjrgpzO7NjdAhVK-qwKHUQICm8Q3ywwAHoECAIQAw&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.youtube.com%2Fwatch%3Fv%3DamZQdMtjNA8&usg=AOvVaw0DAfrOTZtOnMF88F2t6I2y

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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