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October 2018 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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This morning in North Texas we have 42* and rain.

 

However we also have a 33* wind chill. Crazy.

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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How cold has Macomb gotten? So far, the cold has under-performed here in Marshall. Twice the NWS grid has called for frost. But it only got down to 38F and 35F briefly (out at the airport) so in town with all the green leafs still on the trees I've not seen any signs of frost.

 

 

I'd agree with the bolded. Late 80's is about the time when the pattern shifted away from the early piercing cold shots that dropped in from Canada during the 60s, 70s, & 80s. And with the GL's being really warm this summer I'd agree that the leafs (at least downstate) are running behind. I have 30F in my local grid for Thurs morning, so we may both bag the 32F low this week. With the insulating effects of Lake Michigan not certain if we can get to 28F tho.

 

 

Much of last October was an extension of summer. Like what the East Coasters have been getting this year. Here in Marshall we couldn't buy a frost the first 3 weeks of the month, then finally (iirc) on the 26th we finally tanked into the mid-20s one morning. It ended up winter set in Dec 8th and it was a very snowy Dec, so it just shows that there's little connection between the two.

Not sure..haven't been keeping track. Definitely somewhere in the 30s.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Currently cloudy and a few spotty showers w temps holding in the 40s.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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I have seen reports that we dropped somewhere between 22-24 degrees overnight into this morning.  If it did hit 22, that would be a record low for the date.  I also believe we may have had a record low maximum yesterday at 31 degrees.  The next couple of weeks will be warmer and mainly dry.  Hope things reload as we hit November.

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PER NOAA:

 

Period of strong height falls into the existing mean trough axis
Tuesday night into Wednesday will yield a solid reinforcing shot of
colder air for the midweek period. Temperatures within the 850-925
mb layer projected to run 2-3 degrees colder than the cold shot
noted today/tonight. This will keep daytime temperatures Wednesday a
good 10 degrees below normal. Potential for some influence of high
pressure building over the Ohio valley lends confidence for a greater
radiational cooling opportunity Wednesday night - assuming clouds
clear. Coldest conditions this forecast period likely noted Thursday
morning given the environment, with a more widespread distribution of
lows at/below freezing.

 

It will get mighty chilly here. A hard freeze looking like a good possibly for SEMI.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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I have seen reports that we dropped somewhere between 22-24 degrees overnight into this morning.  If it did hit 22, that would be a record low for the date.  I also believe we may have had a record low maximum yesterday at 31 degrees.  The next couple of weeks will be warmer and mainly dry.  Hope things reload as we hit November.

Looks like a lot of record lows were achieved last night...

 

Dpi6KF-UwAAAY9e.jpg

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DFW hit a record low of 41* at ~ 9am for this date.

 

Downright cold for us in Oct. these are typical Dec temps.

 

We went from 80’s to 41*. Amazing.

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Ain't that somethin'...KC just set a new threshold and that being the earliest measurable snow (0.2") last night in recorded history!  What a different pattern this year is going to be for your neck of the woods. 

 

 

Quote from Gary's Blog:

Good morning bloggers,

Kansas City set the record for the earliest accumulation in recorded history last night with 0.2″ at KCI Airport.

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Ain't that somethin'...KC just set a new threshold and that being the earliest measurable snow (0.2") last night in recorded history!  What a different pattern this year is going to be for your neck of the woods. 

 

 

Quote from Gary's Blog:

Top 5 for Hastings also! 

Tab3FileL.png

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@ Jaster

 

I think you stand at a "Hard Freeze" buddy this Wednesday night. Lows in the 20s ;).  Hopefully, our areas experience one soon. :)

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Rain has ended, but it is sure looks blustery out there looking from my homeoffice windows. Grass is greener than eva though. Very impressed. :D

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Something Spectacular is brewing up for the CONUS this cold season...KC peeps should be ready for what I think is coming for them this year...plenty of opportunities...

 

 

NWS Kansas City

Measurable snowfall is pretty rare during the month of October in KC; only having occurred 7 times since records began. However, yesterday we broke a new record by measuring the earliest snowfall (0.2") which broke the previous record set in 1898.

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The last 7-10 days of the month will come back to life.  This 00z EPS map below tells me to look for a possible Bowling Ball system around Halloween?  That blocking looks beautiful...

 

DpjF9bZW4AA-7GX.jpg

 

18z GFS has a system around h220 coming out of CO across OK mid 990's, then via AR up to Little Egypt then to S Lk MIch as mid 980's. All without any cold air connection. It's nice to finally see something taking a favorable track for our backyards. It then shunts eastward towards NY state (blocking at play?). It's not unlike last autumn's storm that deepened from NE to OH and brought N IL a changeover to snow but couldn't quite get cold enough here in SMI to do the same. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Its cold outside. Temps are in the upper 30s. Lows dipping down to near 30F w wcf in the teens to low 20s. Brrrrr.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Freeze Warning for my area tanite as temps tumble into the 20s.

 

@Jaster

snow/rain mix for me Saturday night. Highs on Sunday struggling to get outta the upper 30s. :lol:

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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18z GFS has a system around h220 coming out of CO across OK mid 990's, then via AR up to Little Egypt then to S Lk MIch as mid 980's. All without any cold air connection. It's nice to finally see something taking a favorable track for our backyards. It then shunts eastward towards NY state (blocking at play?). It's not unlike last autumn's storm that deepened from NE to OH and brought N IL a changeover to snow but couldn't quite get cold enough here in SMI to do the same.

Ya, blocking is showing up in the extended and the models are suggesting a bowling ball look for the pre-Halloween storm on my calendar.

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Nice find! I have 3 comments on this

 

1.

 

That was about to be the winter that wasn't until 1/30/1899. The next 15 days were some of the coldest for the state ever. It appears the entire state was covered with snow, albeit not a huge blizzard for us like the NE US. After mid-Feb, winter was over. An amazing 15 day stretch in the winter that almost wasn't.

 

I'd still pick winter 1917-18 as the one I want to repeat the most. http://tennesseewx.com/Smileys/default/smiley.gif

 

2. These temps are what I experienced working in Grayling in Jan '94 (another analog) in NMI

 

PLEASE NO!

Feb 1899 Mich temps.JPG

 

3. I'll go insane if I have to watch the EC buried in 5-10 feet of snow while the only thing I'm measuring in feet is depth of frozen soil like Chicago had that year.

 

THAT was a deep south winter by all accounts for snowfall. Would line up very favorably with WxBell's winter forecast maps tbh. Having said that, no two winters are xerox copies. Chicago's due and it's almost impossible for them to get nailed and Marshall to get a complete dud. So sticking with my (very early) call :lol:

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Freeze Warning for my area tanite as temps tumble into the 20s.

 

@Jaster

snow/rain mix for me Saturday night. Highs on Sunday struggling to get outta the upper 30s. :lol:

 

NWS has dropped tonight's low to 31F. Right now o'cast is keeping the temp from dropping. Holding at 38F

 

Legit snow squalls for Macomb Sunday?

 

20181015 18Z gfs_precip_h126 Sun Oct21.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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2" of rain today. Slow constant rain. 41-42*. It was wonderful after 115* in July.

 

Another larger system of rain coming up from beautiful Texas Hill Country. Some heavy cells imbedded so we'll get at least 1-1.50"

 

Lots of standing water everywhere. Lost phone and Internet for most of the day. Nice vacay!

 

Mañana we get Part Deux!

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Nice find! I have 3 comments on this

 

1.

 

2. These temps are what I experienced working in Grayling in Jan '94 (another analog) in NMI

 

PLEASE NO!

Feb 1899 Mich temps.JPG

 

3. I'll go insane if I have to watch the EC buried in 5-10 feet of snow while the only thing I'm measuring in feet is depth of frozen soil like Chicago had that year.

 

THAT was a deep south winter by all accounts for snowfall. Would line up very favorably with WxBell's winter forecast maps tbh. Having said that, no two winters are xerox copies. Chicago's due and it's almost impossible for them to get nailed and Marshall to get a complete dud. So sticking with my (very early) call :lol:

 

I don't want to repeat that one either. I'd like 1917-18, 1976-1979, 1911-12, and 2002/09 blend for the win and I think we will see tastes of them all.

 

I like your call, but also, I'm of the mindset that Tom is. If there is no break at all, and that window is closing by the model run, I wouldn't know what to call this winter. 3 months of crazy at the least.

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NWS has dropped tonight's low to 31F. Right now o'cast is keeping the temp from dropping. Holding at 38F

 

Legit snow squalls for Macomb Sunday?

 

attachicon.gif20181015 18Z gfs_precip_h126 Sun Oct21.png

Its possible. That outta be something. My local weatherman just said that it could lead to slippery roads. :lol:

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Nice piece of info, but I have a feeling big cities on the EC were a lot colder than -6F. Probably more like in the -10s or lower, (-20s) perhaps. Detroit was most likely colder as well.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Nice find! I have 3 comments on this

 

1.

 

2. These temps are what I experienced working in Grayling in Jan '94 (another analog) in NMI

 

PLEASE NO!

attachicon.gifFeb 1899 Mich temps.JPG

 

3. I'll go insane if I have to watch the EC buried in 5-10 feet of snow while the only thing I'm measuring in feet is depth of frozen soil like Chicago had that year.

 

THAT was a deep south winter by all accounts for snowfall. Would line up very favorably with WxBell's winter forecast maps tbh. Having said that, no two winters are xerox copies. Chicago's due and it's almost impossible for them to get nailed and Marshall to get a complete dud. So sticking with my (very early) call :lol:

"Suicide Watch" in effect, for sure.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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"Suicide Watch" in effect, for sure.

 

no kiddin. This year tho, it's more likely we'll need to start a "Michigan, Chicago, anybody NOT Nebraska, Kansas, or Oklahoma" complaint thread.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Nice piece of info, but I have a feeling big cities on the EC were a lot colder than -6F. Probably more like in the -10s or lower, (-20s) perhaps. Detroit was most likely colder as well.

The coldest low at Grand Rapids in Feb 1899 was -24 on the 13th and 14th.  On February 10th the high was -6 and the low was -21 on the 11th the high was 0 and the low was -21 on the 10th the high was 0 and the low was -23° Over at Muskegon the lowest day that month were Feb 11th with a high of -3 and a low of -30 and on the 12th the high was -1 and the low was -29 The coldest low reported at Detroit in February of 1899 was -13  not sure where the reports were taken in Detroit in 1899 but in Grand Rapids they were recorded downtown at that time.

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I really really do NOT think that the cold and snow will be confined/arranged at all like 1898-99. An example of severe cold is the best use for that year.

 

I would also like to say that I believe I have mistaken October 2000 as the coldest for Tulsa and I was incorrect. The coldest is 2009. Close followers are 1917 and 2002. There is a correlation to October temps and ENSO here so we'll see how the rest of the month plays out. My understanding is that the EURO gives only one more "break". That is impressive and not like 1898.

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