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October 2018 Observations and Discussion

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#51
Stacsh

Posted 28 September 2018 - 06:30 AM

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Excited for the Long Range to show the cold invading in a week only to be shunned back north every other run.  It's got to come eventually right?  Rinse and Repeat. 



#52
Niko

Posted 28 September 2018 - 07:24 AM

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Excited for the Long Range to show the cold invading in a week only to be shunned back north every other run.  It's got to come eventually right?  Rinse and Repeat. 

That always seems to be the case. :lol:


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#53
james1976

Posted 28 September 2018 - 07:32 AM

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Excited for the Long Range to show the cold invading in a week only to be shunned back north every other run. It's got to come eventually right? Rinse and Repeat.

Typical GFS

#54
Hawkeye

Posted 28 September 2018 - 10:35 AM

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Models now agree the Rosa remnants will pass well north of Iowa midweek.  However, they also agree there will be another big system just behind it that tracks farther south.


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season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#55
Niko

Posted 28 September 2018 - 11:47 AM

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MAX_WEB_TROP_PAC20_storm_info_1280x720.j
 

There have been reported gusts of 165mph. Dont worry S. Cali...it will weakened considerably by the time it gets to Northern parts of Baja, Cali.



#56
OKwx2k4

Posted 28 September 2018 - 12:30 PM

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When the cold comes back it will be pretty sudden. I think that's the way it was in July when this all started. The models waffled for a few days and then like 3 days out, drove the cold front down the eastern US. I think thats what we should expect. I've seen nothing which, to me at least, would suggest a warm October for most. Is it possible? Yes. Likely? No.

I dont expect much long term warmth back after this next round until probably opening half of November.
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#57
james1976

Posted 28 September 2018 - 02:57 PM

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Rosa remnants look to lock up the cold in Canada as it moves across the country. Maybe after that the cold will dump. Im not liking the heavy rain threat next week. Im STILL dealing with a wet basement from the heavy rains 2 weeks ago.


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#58
jaster220

Posted 28 September 2018 - 04:40 PM

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Attached File  usa_ICast (5).gif   86.52KB   4 downloads

I know it has to verify to count, but wow what a sight for sore eyes. BOOM! Hello new pattern!
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#59
jaster220

Posted 28 September 2018 - 05:54 PM

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A taste of #IndianSummer mid week next week??? For those who will experience their first Freeze of the season this weekend, will have an opportunity to experience some rather warm weather early/mid next week out ahead of a storm system coming out of the SW. Remnants of #Rosa coming out of the desert SW will interact with the a deep trough coming down out of SW Canada, pumping a healthy ridge out ahead of this system. This may in fact be our 1st storm system of the '18/'19 LRC pattern. A solid SW Flow has been my early guess from a couple weeks ago and it looks like its panning out. This pattern may stay put through about the 10th of the month before I believe the nation is engulfed by a major trough-like pattern.

What is quite amazing by this 500mb pattern, is the magnitude of the Blocking pattern across the North Pole, EC Ridge, Hudson Bay Vortex and the NW NAMER Ridge...What a beauty of a pattern which will likely be Exhibit A of the new LRC....

ecmwf_z500a_namer_7.png

But wait, is there another system right on its heels??? Another cutter in the making...this pattern is going to busy right at the open...and if things line up just right, there may be yet another E PAC tropical system that comes out of the SW during the 2nd week of October. You can't ask for a better pattern.

gfs-ens_mslpaNorm_us_33.png


ecmwf-ens_mslpaNorm_us_9.png

JB: "pioneer model developed by Joe D Aleo vs analog years of weaker late starting el nino with IMPACT Pacific tropical cyclones into US. Great test case coming up this winter"

That's a lot of that 70's show in the analog list!



Attached File  DoNCRTIXcAEMJXW.jpeg   74.1KB   0 downloads

#chilly'merica



Attached File  DoNCPayXUAEh2OK.jpeg   72.23KB   0 downloads
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#60
Niko

Posted 28 September 2018 - 06:29 PM

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attachicon.gifusa_ICast (5).gif

I know it has to verify to count, but wow what a sight for sore eyes. BOOM! Hello new pattern!

That would be a ton of snow come Winter in our neck of the woods. :D


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#61
OKwx2k4

Posted 28 September 2018 - 07:28 PM

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JB: "pioneer model developed by Joe D Aleo vs analog years of weaker late starting el nino with IMPACT Pacific tropical cyclones into US. Great test case coming up this winter"

That's a lot of that 70's show in the analog list!



DoNCRTIXcAEMJXW.jpeg

#chilly'merica



DoNCPayXUAEh2OK.jpeg


Woof!! Woof!! If you remove 2 years from that analog set, it gets ridiculous. Big Dog incoming... WOOOOF!!

#62
OKwx2k4

Posted 28 September 2018 - 07:31 PM

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If this pattern recycles to warm central conus, high plains ridging a time or 2 more, briefly, it will be 1978 to a "T". After the last ridge went through, it was an onslaught to the spring. This is an October thread instead of a winter one but anticipation is killing me!!
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#63
james1976

Posted 28 September 2018 - 10:11 PM

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I cant believe how active the GFS is over the next couple weeks. This pattern is gonna be loaded.


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#64
Tom

Posted 29 September 2018 - 03:42 AM

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The magnitude of the "Resilient Ridge" in the East is eye popping and likely a foreshadowing of the new cyclical pattern.  For those who live out in the southern Plains, this jet stream pattern is a sight for sore eyes.  Let me tell you, this is not an El Nino "look", which brings me some doubts that this cold season will have a traditional El Nino flavor.  I think our sub will have plenty of action going forward.

 

Boy, oh boy, fast forward this pattern into late November (when it re-cycles) and into early December, you got yourselves a "cutter alley", an "atmospheric river" across the central CONUS...what a ripe pattern for winter storms.  On a side note, 'dat -AO has legs this season...

 

 

gfs_uv250_namer_28.png


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#65
Hawkeye

Posted 29 September 2018 - 04:16 AM

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I cant believe how active the GFS is over the next couple weeks. This pattern is gonna be loaded.

 

Yeah, the last few euro runs have really ramped up the rainfall as well.  The ensemble avg is up to 5 inches here through two weeks.  The op has a band of 6 inches over northern Iowa through ten days.


season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#66
Niko

Posted 29 September 2018 - 04:48 AM

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Next week looks a little soggy going forward, thanks to the remnants of Rosa. Temps also do moderate, thanks to Rosa. Hopefully, she gets outta here fast.



#67
jaster220

Posted 29 September 2018 - 05:12 AM

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Woof!! Woof!! If you remove 2 years from that analog set, it gets ridiculous. Big Dog incoming... WOOOOF!!


So what are people like NOAA, OFA, etc looking at when they publish such warm winter outlooks??

#68
Stacsh

Posted 29 September 2018 - 05:18 AM

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So what are people like NOAA, OFA, etc looking at when they publish such warm winter outlooks??

 

The facts.



#69
LNK_Weather

Posted 29 September 2018 - 06:22 AM

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The facts.


Please elaborate.
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>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 7.1"             Coldest Low: 7*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#70
james1976

Posted 29 September 2018 - 06:48 AM

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Yeah, the last few euro runs have really ramped up the rainfall as well. The ensemble avg is up to 5 inches here through two weeks. The op has a band of 6 inches over northern Iowa through ten days.

Typically id love it but id like my basement to dry out lol. I love the pattern we're getting into though moving forward.
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#71
Hawkeye

Posted 29 September 2018 - 09:21 AM

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Unfortunately, the Des Moines radar will be down for an upgrade all next week... lousy timing.


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season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#72
OKwx2k4

Posted 29 September 2018 - 11:27 AM

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Please elaborate.


I agree. That has always been my problem. What facts? They simply "predict" enso and write a forecast off of it. They haven't gotten enso right in a decade without changing their forecasts every single month. That tells me all I need to know. If a person supplies facts, they can tell you why they were wrong or right. What happened or didn't, etc...
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#73
OKwx2k4

Posted 29 September 2018 - 11:30 AM

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So what are people like NOAA, OFA, etc looking at when they publish such warm winter outlooks??


Long range modeling and personal/leadership bias is my guess. Keep on saying its warm or going to be, people will remember that more than the truth.
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#74
Tom

Posted 30 September 2018 - 04:23 AM

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Let's compare the CFSv2 vs the Euro for the month of October...Some stark similarities as quite the battle zone shall setup across our sub along with the likelihood of a hyper active storm track.  Taste of Winter in the north, summer continues in the S/SE???  That mean ridge in the East has drawn my attention and will pay dividends as we move into early Winter.  Somebody on here is going to have a phenomenal start to Winter.

 

CFSv2 latest run...

 

CFSv2.NaT2m.20180930.201810.gif

CFSv2.z700.20180930.201810.gif

CFSv2.NaPrec.20180930.201810.gif

 

Euro...

 

DoLkKf4XsAAXHQ7.jpg


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#75
Tom

Posted 30 September 2018 - 04:39 AM

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As I sit here this morning, analyzing various wx maps, when you "see" patterns from previous winter seasons that produced Big Dogs, this map below off the 00z GEFS screams a GHD-1 Blizzard scenario.  My goodness, during the opening 2 weeks of October, nature is literally going to open the flood gates as the STJ churns up!

 

gfs-ens_uv250_namer_37.png

 

 

gfs-ens_apcpn_namer_64.png


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#76
jaster220

Posted 30 September 2018 - 05:48 AM

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As I sit here this morning, analyzing various wx maps, when you "see" patterns from previous winter seasons that produced Big Dogs, this map below off the 00z GEFS screams a GHD-1 Blizzard scenario.  My goodness, during the opening 2 weeks of October, nature is literally going to open the flood gates as the STJ churns up!
 
gfs-ens_uv250_namer_37.png
 
 
gfs-ens_apcpn_namer_64.png

Reminds me of seeing some GFS 15-day snowfall maps showing 30" across SWMI back in 13-14 season. Giddy-up! Like you've said, massive potential when this recycles during the cold season.
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#77
OKwx2k4

Posted 30 September 2018 - 08:02 AM

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I don't know how many different storm types that makes this year but if you suppress that one, I like it too. :)
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#78
Tom

Posted 30 September 2018 - 08:11 AM

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Just an incredible amount of moisture is being forecast across the majority of the MW/Plains/GL's.  IA looks to be close to the epicenter....

 

DoWnBqLXoAEHhJh.jpg


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#79
james1976

Posted 30 September 2018 - 10:08 AM

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Just an incredible amount of moisture is being forecast across the majority of the MW/Plains/GL's.  IA looks to be close to the epicenter....

 

DoWnBqLXoAEHhJh.jpg

Amazing how active this pattern is. Fast forward a couple months now!


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#80
Iowawx

Posted 30 September 2018 - 11:07 AM

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12Z Euro has 7-10 inches of rain over the next 10 days falling across Iowa. This is going to be a very active pattern. 


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#81
gabel23

Posted 30 September 2018 - 11:12 AM

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12Z Euro has 7-10 inches of rain over the next 10 days falling across Iowa. This is going to be a very active pattern.


How about us in Nebraska? Does it look similar to the GFS?

#82
Iowawx

Posted 30 September 2018 - 11:41 AM

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Iowa and Nebraska 12Z Euro precipitation maps.

Attached Files


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#83
james1976

Posted 30 September 2018 - 11:53 AM

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Iowa and Nebraska 12Z Euro precipitation maps.

Oh my...….that 10.3 bullseye is mby


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#84
OKwx2k4

Posted 30 September 2018 - 04:18 PM

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Iowa and Nebraska 12Z Euro precipitation maps.


Holy moly. Build a boat.

#85
OKwx2k4

Posted 30 September 2018 - 04:22 PM

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DoXOdyOUwAEqO8S.jpg


See that giant high falling in over the bering Sea after? Nice stuff. That image is autumn weather porn.

#86
OKwx2k4

Posted 30 September 2018 - 04:35 PM

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So which half wins is the question? GEFS trends are slowly pressing the ridge east or SE with time but, I stress, the trend is slow. Following trend around 192-240 hrs or so. That thing locks in for a long time. I didn't realize it had switched to "jamming" the psttern.

#87
OKwx2k4

Posted 30 September 2018 - 05:13 PM

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EURO shifting things east. Being the west biased model, interested to see what happens.
Attached File  FB_IMG_1538356307259.jpg   166.56KB   0 downloads
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#88
CentralNebWeather

Posted 30 September 2018 - 05:19 PM

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EURO shifting things east. Being the west biased model, interested to see what happens.
FB_IMG_1538356307259.jpg


Nice looking map.

#89
OKwx2k4

Posted 30 September 2018 - 06:11 PM

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Nice looking map.


If that HP over AK wins vs the SE ridge, look out. Euro ens actually shows a height record over AK at 240 pressing on that cold. My thought is that the SE ridge gets squished. Cold is coming.

#90
hlcater

Posted 30 September 2018 - 06:22 PM

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This big western trough is a very favorable pattern for some plains severe weather as well. Juicy jet with favorable orientation. Euro keeps things more meridional which tempers potential quite a lot.

 

500wh.conus.png


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2018-19 Snowfall: 

TOTAL: 3.5"

 

(Nov. 9: 0.6") (Nov. 17: 2.9")

Formerly NWLinn


#91
Niko

Posted 30 September 2018 - 06:38 PM

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There are a few 70s appearing next week and a couple the following week as well. Also, unsettled weather seems to be the name of the game here in SEMI for the next several days.



#92
OKwx2k4

Posted 30 September 2018 - 07:53 PM

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This big western trough is a very favorable pattern for some plains severe weather as well. Juicy jet with favorable orientation. Euro keeps things more meridional which tempers potential quite a lot.

500wh.conus.png


Some modeling is just nice to look at. :D
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#93
LNK_Weather

Posted 30 September 2018 - 08:16 PM

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This big western trough is a very favorable pattern for some plains severe weather as well. Juicy jet with favorable orientation. Euro keeps things more meridional which tempers potential quite a lot.

500wh.conus.png


I noticed that too. I'd like cold to come and stay, and I'll take some severe wx if that comes with some cold air.

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 7.1"             Coldest Low: 7*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#94
Tom

Posted 01 October 2018 - 04:22 AM

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Welcome to October!  It looks like portions of the area will open up the month on a stormy note.  Legit chance for severe wx later tonight across N IL and parts of E IA/S WI..

 

day1otlk_1200.gif?1538396511724


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#95
james1976

Posted 01 October 2018 - 04:24 AM

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Storming way bad this morning. Heavy downpours and lightning flashes about blinded me on my drive to work. Had 0.62" over night on top of the 0.22" from the weekend.
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#96
Tom

Posted 01 October 2018 - 04:37 AM

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Question, does this link open up for you guys w/out any issues???  This is NOAA's snow cover map and I'm having problems opening the page as it states I have a privacy error.  Thanks in advance.

 

https://www.natice.noaa.gov/ims/



#97
gabel23

Posted 01 October 2018 - 05:16 AM

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Question, does this link open up for you guys w/out any issues???  This is NOAA's snow cover map and I'm having problems opening the page as it states I have a privacy error.  Thanks in advance.

 

https://www.natice.noaa.gov/ims

Link doesn't work, I got the same thing popping up!


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#98
St Paul Storm

Posted 01 October 2018 - 05:17 AM

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Question, does this link open up for you guys w/out any issues???  This is NOAA's snow cover map and I'm having problems opening the page as it states I have a privacy error.  Thanks in advance.
 
https://www.natice.noaa.gov/ims/


Tom this link does not open. I got a message stating it is not a secure site.
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#99
LNK_Weather

Posted 01 October 2018 - 05:18 AM

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Question, does this link open up for you guys w/out any issues???  This is NOAA's snow cover map and I'm having problems opening the page as it states I have a privacy error.  Thanks in advance.

 

https://www.natice.noaa.gov/ims/

If you're using Chrome, click "advanced" down at the bottom and there will be a link to proceed.


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>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 7.1"             Coldest Low: 7*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#100
Tom

Posted 01 October 2018 - 05:41 AM

Tom

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If you're using Chrome, click "advanced" down at the bottom and there will be a link to proceed.

Thanks man! 


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