October 2018 Observations and Discussion

[GDR]

MJO says not so fast cold! Looks to be in a warmer phase for a while but wetter.

[Hawkeye]

Next week is starting to look warm and wet. Bottom really drops off after that. Long range but fun to look at.

 

Definitely warm.  The euro now has 70s to low 80s for four days.  However, south of hw20 in Iowa, it's not wet.  The euro has become drier every run for me, now showing only an inch over the next ten days.

[jaster220]

That's fine, let's not burn cold spells at a time when it's meaningless. Now, get me another 6 wks into Autumn, and cold waves can mean something, even here in The Mitt

[Tom]

After analyzing the latest JMA weeklies, the BSR may have been a good long lead forecasting tool to predict a stout SE ridge to open up October.  About a week ago, when I saw the impressive Aleutian Ridge, I began to ponder on the idea that the new developing cyclical  '18-'19 LRC may in fact open up with an EC ridge.  The model is predicting a strong SE ridge through at least the first 2 weeks of October, maybe even the entire month???  While I don't necessarily believe there will be such a strong signal for a SE ridge through Weeks 3 & 4, due in part by using the BSR as guidance, it may be somewhat present bc the waters are so warm along the EC.

 

The maps below show a fascinating amplified North American pattern with a major ridge along NW NAMER and into the Arctic, driving a deep trough all the way through Canada and into the deep SW...SW Flow is a great sign for our subforum.

Temps Week 2...

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R07_2/Y201809.D2612_gl2.png

 

 

Temps Week 3 & 4...

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R14_3/Y201809.D2612_gl2.png

 

 

 

Precip over the next 4 weeks are abundant across practically the entire CONUS...here's a 30 day mean (MW/GL's bullseye)

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R28_1/Y201809.D2612_gl0.png

[Niko]

October tends to be a dry month. None much going on. I'd prefer it goes dry and coolish and save all that cold air for later in Novemba!!!

[Hawkeye]

Apparently, the Euro is about to go to four runs per day.

[james1976]

Apparently, the Euro is about to go to four runs per day.

Just in time for the cold season haha

[Thunder98]

October looks snowy in Minot, North Dakota

 

[Tom]

A taste of #IndianSummer mid week next week???  For those who will experience their first Freeze of the season this weekend, will have an opportunity to experience some rather warm weather early/mid next week out ahead of a storm system coming out of the SW.  Remnants of #Rosa coming out of the desert SW will interact with the a deep trough coming down out of SW Canada, pumping a healthy ridge out ahead of this system.  This may in fact be our 1st storm system of the '18/'19 LRC pattern.  A solid SW Flow has been my early guess from a couple weeks ago and it looks like its panning out.  This pattern may stay put through about the 10th of the month before I believe the nation is engulfed by a major trough-like pattern.

 

What is quite amazing by this 500mb pattern, is the magnitude of the Blocking pattern across the North Pole, EC Ridge, Hudson Bay Vortex and the NW NAMER Ridge...What a beauty of a pattern which will likely be Exhibit A of the new LRC....

 

 

But wait, is there another system right on its heels???  Another cutter in the making...this pattern is going to busy right at the open...and if things line up just right, there may be yet another E PAC tropical system that comes out of the SW during the 2nd week of October.  You can't ask for a better pattern.

 

 

 

[Tom]

The pattern setting up for this month is ripe for storm production and cold.  It took a while for the models to figure out what would happen with Super Typhoon Trami which, in turn, caused the models to flip back and forth during the extended forecast for our sub.  Now that we know it will be re-curving, I'm expecting cooler trends for Week 1-2 and the EPS is seeing this.  That's not all.  Is there another re-curving Typhoon on the table???  Giddy up...this pattern is loaded with storm potential...I'm stoked and fired up on the development of this pattern for our sub during this month.

 

http://wx.graphics/models/tropical/eps_WPAC_current.png

 

 

2nd Typhoon targeting Japan Day 9-10....

 

[Stacsh]

Excited for the Long Range to show the cold invading in a week only to be shunned back north every other run.  It's got to come eventually right?  Rinse and Repeat. 

[Niko]

Excited for the Long Range to show the cold invading in a week only to be shunned back north every other run.  It's got to come eventually right?  Rinse and Repeat. 

That always seems to be the case.

[james1976]

Excited for the Long Range to show the cold invading in a week only to be shunned back north every other run. It's got to come eventually right? Rinse and Repeat.

Typical GFS

[Hawkeye]

Models now agree the Rosa remnants will pass well north of Iowa midweek.  However, they also agree there will be another big system just behind it that tracks farther south.

[Niko]

 

 

There have been reported gusts of 165mph. Dont worry S. Cali...it will weakened considerably by the time it gets to Northern parts of Baja, Cali.

[OKwx2k4]

When the cold comes back it will be pretty sudden. I think that's the way it was in July when this all started. The models waffled for a few days and then like 3 days out, drove the cold front down the eastern US. I think thats what we should expect. I've seen nothing which, to me at least, would suggest a warm October for most. Is it possible? Yes. Likely? No.

 

I dont expect much long term warmth back after this next round until probably opening half of November.

[james1976]

Rosa remnants look to lock up the cold in Canada as it moves across the country. Maybe after that the cold will dump. Im not liking the heavy rain threat next week. Im STILL dealing with a wet basement from the heavy rains 2 weeks ago.

[jaster220]

 

I know it has to verify to count, but wow what a sight for sore eyes. BOOM! Hello new pattern!

[jaster220]

A taste of #IndianSummer mid week next week??? For those who will experience their first Freeze of the season this weekend, will have an opportunity to experience some rather warm weather early/mid next week out ahead of a storm system coming out of the SW. Remnants of #Rosa coming out of the desert SW will interact with the a deep trough coming down out of SW Canada, pumping a healthy ridge out ahead of this system. This may in fact be our 1st storm system of the '18/'19 LRC pattern. A solid SW Flow has been my early guess from a couple weeks ago and it looks like its panning out. This pattern may stay put through about the 10th of the month before I believe the nation is engulfed by a major trough-like pattern.

 

What is quite amazing by this 500mb pattern, is the magnitude of the Blocking pattern across the North Pole, EC Ridge, Hudson Bay Vortex and the NW NAMER Ridge...What a beauty of a pattern which will likely be Exhibit A of the new LRC....

 

 

But wait, is there another system right on its heels??? Another cutter in the making...this pattern is going to busy right at the open...and if things line up just right, there may be yet another E PAC tropical system that comes out of the SW during the 2nd week of October. You can't ask for a better pattern.

 

 

 

JB: "pioneer model developed by Joe D Aleo vs analog years of weaker late starting el nino with IMPACT Pacific tropical cyclones into US. Great test case coming up this winter"

 

That's a lot of that 70's show in the analog list!

 

 

 

 

#chilly'merica

 

 

 

[Niko]

usa_ICast (5).gif

 

I know it has to verify to count, but wow what a sight for sore eyes. BOOM! Hello new pattern!

That would be a ton of snow come Winter in our neck of the woods.

[OKwx2k4]

JB: "pioneer model developed by Joe D Aleo vs analog years of weaker late starting el nino with IMPACT Pacific tropical cyclones into US. Great test case coming up this winter"

 

That's a lot of that 70's show in the analog list!

 

 

 

DoNCRTIXcAEMJXW.jpeg

 

#chilly'merica

 

 

 

DoNCPayXUAEh2OK.jpeg

Woof!! Woof!! If you remove 2 years from that analog set, it gets ridiculous. Big Dog incoming... WOOOOF!!

[OKwx2k4]

If this pattern recycles to warm central conus, high plains ridging a time or 2 more, briefly, it will be 1978 to a "T". After the last ridge went through, it was an onslaught to the spring. This is an October thread instead of a winter one but anticipation is killing me!!

[james1976]

I cant believe how active the GFS is over the next couple weeks. This pattern is gonna be loaded.

[Tom]

The magnitude of the "Resilient Ridge" in the East is eye popping and likely a foreshadowing of the new cyclical pattern.  For those who live out in the southern Plains, this jet stream pattern is a sight for sore eyes.  Let me tell you, this is not an El Nino "look", which brings me some doubts that this cold season will have a traditional El Nino flavor.  I think our sub will have plenty of action going forward.

 

Boy, oh boy, fast forward this pattern into late November (when it re-cycles) and into early December, you got yourselves a "cutter alley", an "atmospheric river" across the central CONUS...what a ripe pattern for winter storms.  On a side note, 'dat -AO has legs this season...

 

 

[Hawkeye]

I cant believe how active the GFS is over the next couple weeks. This pattern is gonna be loaded.

 

Yeah, the last few euro runs have really ramped up the rainfall as well.  The ensemble avg is up to 5 inches here through two weeks.  The op has a band of 6 inches over northern Iowa through ten days.

[Niko]

Next week looks a little soggy going forward, thanks to the remnants of Rosa. Temps also do moderate, thanks to Rosa. Hopefully, she gets outta here fast.

[jaster220]

Woof!! Woof!! If you remove 2 years from that analog set, it gets ridiculous. Big Dog incoming... WOOOOF!!

So what are people like NOAA, OFA, etc looking at when they publish such warm winter outlooks??

[Stacsh]

So what are people like NOAA, OFA, etc looking at when they publish such warm winter outlooks??

 

The facts.

[Minny_Weather]

The facts.

Please elaborate.

[james1976]

Yeah, the last few euro runs have really ramped up the rainfall as well. The ensemble avg is up to 5 inches here through two weeks. The op has a band of 6 inches over northern Iowa through ten days.

Typically id love it but id like my basement to dry out lol. I love the pattern we're getting into though moving forward.

[Hawkeye]

Unfortunately, the Des Moines radar will be down for an upgrade all next week... lousy timing.

[OKwx2k4]

Please elaborate.

I agree. That has always been my problem. What facts? They simply "predict" enso and write a forecast off of it. They haven't gotten enso right in a decade without changing their forecasts every single month. That tells me all I need to know. If a person supplies facts, they can tell you why they were wrong or right. What happened or didn't, etc...

[OKwx2k4]

So what are people like NOAA, OFA, etc looking at when they publish such warm winter outlooks??

Long range modeling and personal/leadership bias is my guess. Keep on saying its warm or going to be, people will remember that more than the truth.

[Tom]

Let's compare the CFSv2 vs the Euro for the month of October...Some stark similarities as quite the battle zone shall setup across our sub along with the likelihood of a hyper active storm track.  Taste of Winter in the north, summer continues in the S/SE???  That mean ridge in the East has drawn my attention and will pay dividends as we move into early Winter.  Somebody on here is going to have a phenomenal start to Winter.

 

CFSv2 latest run...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaT2m.20180930.201810.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.z700.20180930.201810.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaPrec.20180930.201810.gif

 

Euro...

 

[Tom]

As I sit here this morning, analyzing various wx maps, when you "see" patterns from previous winter seasons that produced Big Dogs, this map below off the 00z GEFS screams a GHD-1 Blizzard scenario.  My goodness, during the opening 2 weeks of October, nature is literally going to open the flood gates as the STJ churns up!

 

 

 

[jaster220]

As I sit here this morning, analyzing various wx maps, when you "see" patterns from previous winter seasons that produced Big Dogs, this map below off the 00z GEFS screams a GHD-1 Blizzard scenario.  My goodness, during the opening 2 weeks of October, nature is literally going to open the flood gates as the STJ churns up!

 

 

 

Reminds me of seeing some GFS 15-day snowfall maps showing 30" across SWMI back in 13-14 season. Giddy-up! Like you've said, massive potential when this recycles during the cold season.

[OKwx2k4]

I don't know how many different storm types that makes this year but if you suppress that one, I like it too.

[Tom]

Just an incredible amount of moisture is being forecast across the majority of the MW/Plains/GL's.  IA looks to be close to the epicenter....

 

[james1976]

Just an incredible amount of moisture is being forecast across the majority of the MW/Plains/GL's.  IA looks to be close to the epicenter....

 

Amazing how active this pattern is. Fast forward a couple months now!

[Iowawx]

12Z Euro has 7-10 inches of rain over the next 10 days falling across Iowa. This is going to be a very active pattern.