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October 2018 Observations and Discussion

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#101
Hawkeye

Posted 01 October 2018 - 05:57 AM

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Up to 2.5" of rain has fallen in Waterloo overnight/this morning, and it's not done yet.  I've picked up 0.28" since late yesterday.


season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#102
Niko

Posted 01 October 2018 - 05:58 AM

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It is pouring outside and the radar looks loaded w moisture. If this was Winter and cold air in place, look-out.

 

cad_None_anim.gif

 

@Jaster: I think you are alittle too south on all of this moisture today, no? Or, are ya just getting clipped by it. Alittle snow showing up in the Arrowhead of MN if ya look closely.


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#103
Niko

Posted 01 October 2018 - 06:01 AM

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Currently, at 52F w heavy rain.



#104
Tom

Posted 01 October 2018 - 06:45 AM

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A battle of the seasons during the next couple weeks will result in a wildly active, stormy....and potentially wintry one?????

 

DobU4ZvV4AAIKP1.jpg


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#105
Niko

Posted 01 October 2018 - 08:23 AM

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Still raining moderately and temps are hovering at the 51F range. Definitely, a wet, chilly, Autumn day.



#106
jaster220

Posted 01 October 2018 - 10:01 AM

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Missing me by like 10 freaking miles again! GRR had 80% Hvy Rain in my grid last night. Didn't get a drop. Please, stop the teases already! At least it's NOT winter, uggh if it was.

#107
Niko

Posted 01 October 2018 - 10:07 AM

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Rain finally ended here. Cloudy and damp currently w very cool conditions. Temp is at 51F.



#108
Niko

Posted 01 October 2018 - 10:08 AM

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Missing me by like 10 freaking miles again! GRR had 80% Hvy Rain in my grid last night. Didn't get a drop. Please, stop the teases already! At least it's NOT winter, uggh if it was.

Yikes. :o



#109
Hawkeye

Posted 01 October 2018 - 11:15 AM

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Part of Waterloo now up to 3.5" of rain with another heavy cell moving in.  Waterloo just set a new record for wettest month on record, and now they start October with this.


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season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#110
Hawkeye

Posted 01 October 2018 - 11:17 AM

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Latest euro 10-day precip map.

 

Attached File  ecmwf_acc_precip_mw_240_100112.png   159.26KB   1 downloads


season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#111
jaster220

Posted 01 October 2018 - 02:59 PM

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@Niko

 

Surprised you didn't mention the Medicane in Greece??

 

http://www.intellica...62-cd2a5e74858b

 

 



#112
Hawkeye

Posted 01 October 2018 - 05:16 PM

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The severe potential crapped out.  However, many locations near hw20 in Iowa, between Waterloo and Dubuque, received 3+ inches of rain, with isolated 5+.  Down here in CR, today's system didn't do much.  All the heavy stuff remained north all day and then once it passed through there wasn't much to it.  A couple nice, but little cells went around me, so all I got was light rain.  I'll have to wait til Friday for the next chance of good rain.


season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#113
Niko

Posted 01 October 2018 - 05:17 PM

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@Niko

 

Surprised you didn't mention the Medicane in Greece??

 

http://www.intellica...62-cd2a5e74858b

Yup....it was no biggie in the Athens area and the surrounding nearby islands. My Islands "Andros" and "Chios" where I usually stay during the Summertime got speared, thank goodness. Northern parts of Greece received some flooding, but nothing extreme. Spoke to family and friends up there and they were laughing about it. Southern parts of Greece (Cyklades) area just saw a little rain and breezy conditions w waves reaching 3-4ft. Today it was sunny and temps in the 70s in the Mediterranean.


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#114
Tom

Posted 01 October 2018 - 05:31 PM

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As the ol' saying goes, "great minds, think alike"...nice write up by Gary Lezak this morning regarding the beginning's of the new LRC pattern.  I jumped on the idea of a EC ridge once I saw the Aleutian Ridge in late Sept, but how long does it last???  Still riding on the idea that post 10th, there will be a bigger trough that'll take over the central CONUS.  Actually, I just saw the Euro Weeklies, and it is keeping the central states below normal after the the 10th, even all the way down into deep TX.  @ LNKwx, can you confirm???

 

 

 

 

At 7 PM tonight Rosa will be crossing the coast and spreading some rain into the southwestern United States. The old LRC and new LRC are combining in last years last gasp at frustrating us in KC.  Look at what happens just a couple days later:

2-640x435.png

This strong cold front is being generated by the old LRC. The pattern is actually ending on the cold part of the 2017-2018 pattern, and something so incredibly different is developing.  A small storm system is forming near California and this storm gets kicked out as something much larger develops:

3-640x398.png

Look at this closely; you have got to be kidding me? Is this really happening? A HUGE trough is predicted by most models to form over the western United States.  This is exhibit A for the new LRC.  This is something so very different. Now, we have to experience this first as it is still on models. It must actually happen first.


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#115
james1976

Posted 01 October 2018 - 07:46 PM

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I dumped out 2.93" just from today. Plus .62" from last night and .22 from the weekend for a total of 3.77" since Saturday. Sump pump is kicking on every 30 secs now. Lot of water in ditches.


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#116
Tom

Posted 02 October 2018 - 03:37 AM

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It poured here last night when I went to bed.  ORD set a daily rainfall record of 1.56" of rain on October 1st....what a way to open up a month.  Looking forward to an active month of tracking systems.

 

Speaking of systems, check out the track of Cat 5 Hurricane Walaka near Hawaii way out in the central PAC.  The animation below shows how this storm system gets pulled north from the trough south of the Aleutians, which creates a somewhat "fujiwhara effect", and then tracks up and over the NE PAC ridge, down the west coast coastline and into the deep SW.  Is this system #2 of the LRC???  It's interesting to note, that of the first few systems that have entered into the new cyclical pattern, a couple of them are of tropical origin.  Is this a sign of things to come from Ma Nature???  There are signs that another tropical system may brew up in the Gulf and head north towards the middle of the month.  It's going to be a busy month watching this all unfold.

 

 

 

 


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#117
Hawkeye

Posted 02 October 2018 - 06:20 AM

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The first few days of the new wet pattern were pretty underwhelming here in Cedar Rapids.  I only picked up 0.21" late yesterday.


season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#118
Niko

Posted 02 October 2018 - 06:52 AM

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More rain fell last night. Everything is pretty much saturated. Picked up ova an inch, which makes the total more than 2" for both days. Currently cloudy and milder w temps in the 60s. Some spotty drizzle on and off.


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#119
Niko

Posted 02 October 2018 - 06:57 AM

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1001-snow-setup.jpg?v=at&w=485&h=273&api
 
The potential is there folks for a significant snowstorm early next week. Who's ready to be tracking Winterstorms again?!
 
Man, that is a huge trough out west.

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#120
LNK_Weather

Posted 02 October 2018 - 07:43 AM

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1001-snow-setup.jpg?v=at&w=485&h=273&api
 
The potential is there folks for a significant snowstorm early next week. Who's ready to be tracking Winterstorms again?!
 
Man, that is a huge trough out west.

 

Low's going over us. Winter cancel. What a pathetic season.


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>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 7.1"             Coldest Low: 7*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#121
CentralNebWeather

Posted 02 October 2018 - 08:27 AM

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Low's going over us. Winter cancel. What a pathetic season.

Very interesting pattern.  Should be a fun season when we can already look at storms in early October.  Been a long time since we could say that no matter what happens next week.  We have had snows in early October but usually very wet and they don't stick around long.  Now later October is a different story, Oct. 31, 1991 comes to mind.


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#122
LNK_Weather

Posted 02 October 2018 - 08:29 AM

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Very interesting pattern. Should be a fun season when we can already look at storms in early October. Been a long time since we could say that no matter what happens next week. We have had snows in early October but usually very wet and they don't stick around long. Now later October is a different story, Oct. 31, 1991 comes to mind.


Don't forget 1997. I would have paid money to see that in person.
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>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 7.1"             Coldest Low: 7*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#123
CentralNebWeather

Posted 02 October 2018 - 10:36 AM

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Don't forget 1997. I would have paid money to see that in person.

The 1997 October storm here in Central Nebraska was a drier snow so we did not have the problems with trees and limbs that Eastern Nebraska had during that famous storm.



#124
james1976

Posted 02 October 2018 - 10:43 AM

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12z GFS with a firehose over the midwest for the next 10 days.

#125
St Paul Storm

Posted 02 October 2018 - 11:28 AM

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Early/mid October surprise? Why not a little front end fun this year. I really don’t feel like raking leaves this Fall anyway.

Attached Files


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#126
LNK_Weather

Posted 02 October 2018 - 11:36 AM

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Early/mid October surprise? Why not a little front end fun this year. I really don’t feel like raking leaves this Fall anyway.

Jesus f***** Christ that 41" bullseye in North Dakota.


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 7.1"             Coldest Low: 7*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#127
jaster220

Posted 02 October 2018 - 12:35 PM

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Low's going over us. Winter cancel. What a pathetic season.

 

:lol:  You win the prize for earliest winter cancel post evva!


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#128
jaster220

Posted 02 October 2018 - 12:44 PM

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Early/mid October surprise? Why not a little front end fun this year. I really don’t feel like raking leaves this Fall anyway.

 

One of my analog seasons even featured that here in SWMI.

 

Oct 12th, 2006 8-12" fell. Earliest deep snows of the modern era.


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#129
Niko

Posted 02 October 2018 - 06:36 PM

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Low's going over us. Winter cancel. What a pathetic season.

:lol:



#130
Niko

Posted 02 October 2018 - 06:59 PM

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:lol:  You win the prize for earliest winter cancel post evva!

:lol:


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#131
Tom

Posted 03 October 2018 - 04:10 AM

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The EAR technique is going to be quite useful for the foreseeable future.  Back to back, re-curving Super Typhoons near Japan are going to play out, as well as, carve out the likelihood of the first back-to-back large storm systems of this year's LRC cycle.

 

eps_KONG-REY_current.png

 

 

The first Super Typhoon, which is currently exploding in the Bearing Sea, will be directly correlated to our large Rockies snowstorm later this weekend into early next week.  I'm looking for another piece of energy to rotate around the deep trough out west later next week and eject out of the CO Rockies around the 12th/13th.  This system, may be very interesting bc based on what I'm seeing out in East Asia, our pattern around here should correlate a lot of blocking across S Canada which could suppress the system's track farther south.  Maybe some early snows in the Plains???  It's on the table.

 

Here's my reasoning why there should be more blocking for the second storm.  Notice the HP across the Sea of Okhotsk and the track this storm takes is more easterly, than northerly.  In past experience, the HP in this region correlates to a block in SW Canada.  The models are seeing this blocking HP, actually, the 00z EPS has a strong signal for a large HP....

 

ecmwf-ens_mslpaNorm_npac_10.png

 


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#132
BrianJK

Posted 03 October 2018 - 04:27 AM

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Curious to see how many more 80s Chicago can tack on over the next several weeks. I know we were approaching a record for the year, not sure if anyone knows where we currently stand.

#133
Tom

Posted 03 October 2018 - 04:44 AM

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Curious to see how many more 80s Chicago can tack on over the next several weeks. I know we were approaching a record for the year, not sure if anyone knows where we currently stand.

Just got back from my walk and it feels great out there this morning.  Enjoy the day bud!


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#134
Tom

Posted 03 October 2018 - 04:47 AM

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Wow, you guys out in the Plains/MW need a canoe over the next 10 days...how's this for a new pattern???

 

 

 

DolUdpGVsAEGgTq.jpg


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#135
james1976

Posted 03 October 2018 - 05:02 AM

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66 this morning. 55 when i went to bed. Definitely a warm and muggy summertime feel out there.
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#136
CentralNebWeather

Posted 03 October 2018 - 05:40 AM

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92 today, 44 tomorrow.  The excitement of living on the Central Plains.  Very few places on earth have these extremes of temperatures in such a short period of time.  Air conditioning to running the heat.  Amazing.


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#137
Niko

Posted 03 October 2018 - 06:37 AM

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Currently cloudy and temps at 55F. Roller coaster ride in temps during the next couple of days. From 70s to 30s and to even a couple of 80s, if ya can believe that. Real cool air settles in by mid October.


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#138
Niko

Posted 03 October 2018 - 06:39 AM

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92 today, 44 tomorrow.  The excitement of living on the Central Plains.  Very few places on earth have these extremes of temperatures in such a short period of time.  Air conditioning to running the heat.  Amazing.

Crazy stuff. I already turned on my furnace for the year. Those 80s next week are looking unreal. Probably will not go back to AC mode, since, the warm weather next week is short-lived. Most likely, leave my windows open and or use a my fan/s.



#139
Hawkeye

Posted 03 October 2018 - 06:59 AM

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We are headed for the mid 80s today.  The dewpoint is already 70.  It feels like late spring.


season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#140
jaster220

Posted 03 October 2018 - 07:05 AM

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Love the Storm Warning on E Lk Superior! Giddy up for autumn fun and excitement. Wish I could swing a road trip up there for some 1st-hand wave action at Whitefish Point.


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#141
Iowawx

Posted 03 October 2018 - 07:24 AM

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Wow, you guys out in the Plains/MW need a canoe over the next 10 days...how's this for a new pattern???

 

 

 

DolUdpGVsAEGgTq.jpg

I love it. Models have been showing Iowa getting any where from 6-9, even possibly 10 inches of rain. Will be a fun pattern to track. 



#142
Niko

Posted 03 October 2018 - 08:05 AM

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Cloudy and some sun trying to peak from time to time. Temps are holding steady in the low 60s. Cools off considerably tomorrow nite as temps tumble into the 30s, after experiencing highs in the 70s.



#143
Niko

Posted 03 October 2018 - 08:11 AM

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We are headed for the mid 80s today.  The dewpoint is already 70.  It feels like late spring.

Or, it might feel like Summer.  :lol:


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#144
Hoosier

Posted 03 October 2018 - 08:20 AM

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Curious to see how many more 80s Chicago can tack on over the next several weeks. I know we were approaching a record for the year, not sure if anyone knows where we currently stand.


Today is #99. The record is 103 days in 2005. I don't think today will be the last one but it'll probably be tough to get to the record.
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#145
hlcater

Posted 03 October 2018 - 08:39 AM

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Today would be a killer severe weather day up here if the initiation mechanism wasn't a poorly timed cold front... Good T/Td spreads, excellent shear and sufficient CAPE. Wisconsin has these parameters(slightly less CAPE), but somewhat ironically, looks like it might end up over forced.


  • jaster220 and LNK_Weather like this

2018-19 Snowfall: 

TOTAL: 3.5"

 

(Nov. 9: 0.6") (Nov. 17: 2.9")

Formerly NWLinn


#146
LNK_Weather

Posted 03 October 2018 - 08:56 AM

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Cold front passes here at the perfect time for severe weather but we have basically no MLCAPE (Around 900 J/Kg) which is 100% the reason we're not expecting any storms here prior to the front. Dew point of 65 with a temp near 90 doesn't exactly help either.


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 7.1"             Coldest Low: 7*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#147
Niko

Posted 03 October 2018 - 09:32 AM

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Early season snowstorm dumps on Calgary, Canada.......

 

 
calgary-snow-twitter.jpg?v=at&w=485&h=27
 
Per TWC:
 
Snow is removed from a vehicle in Calgary on Oct. 2, 2018.
  • Calgary had its snowiest October day on record Tuesday.
  • It was also the snowiest day for any time of year since the early 1980s.
  • Crews were called in from neighboring cities to help with snow removal.

An early-season winter storm pummeled Calgary, Canada, on Tuesday, vaulting the city to its heaviest single-day snowfall since 1981 and setting a new October snow record.

Calgary International Airport received 12.9 inches (32.8 centimeters) of snow Tuesday. No other single day has had more snow there since May 6, 1981, when a record 19 inches (48.4 centimeters) piled up.

Tuesday's snowfall was also the seventh heaviest for any day in Calgary's weather records dating to 1881, according to a tweet from YYC Weather Records.

When just looking at October, the snowstorm was a calendar day record breaker, topping 11.7 inches (29.7 centimeters) on Oct. 4, 1914.

The storm total for Calgary when including Monday's additional 2 inches (5.3 centimeters) was 15 inches (38.1 centimeters).

Calgary's average October snowfall of 3.9 inches (10 centimeters) was more than tripled by this two-day snowstorm.

The southwestern Canada city also picked up about 30 percent of its annual average snowfall of 50.7 inches (128.8 centimeters) in those two days.

Travel was heavily impacted by the snow.

Calgary police reported 251 collisions during the storm from 11 p.m. Monday to 3:30 p.m. Tuesday, local time.

Crews were called in from Edmonton and other locations to help with snow removal. Edmonton is about 200 miles north of Calgary.

A snow route parking ban went into effect at 10 a.m. Wednesday.

One positive is that trees had mostly shed their leaves for the fall, sparing Calgary from widespread tree damage.


  • Tom, Hawkeye, jaster220 and 2 others like this

#148
Madtown

Posted 03 October 2018 - 09:42 AM

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Wow...sun popped out 78 humid and windy....see what this evening brings here

#149
BrianJK

Posted 03 October 2018 - 10:12 AM

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84 with a 68 DP.

#150
Iowawx

Posted 03 October 2018 - 11:30 AM

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Up to 86 here now. Dew point is 69. Highest wind gust recorded here so far today is 45mph.