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October 2018 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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This big western trough is a very favorable pattern for some plains severe weather as well. Juicy jet with favorable orientation. Euro keeps things more meridional which tempers potential quite a lot.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018093012/180/500wh.conus.png

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2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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There are a few 70s appearing next week and a couple the following week as well. Also, unsettled weather seems to be the name of the game here in SEMI for the next several days.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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This big western trough is a very favorable pattern for some plains severe weather as well. Juicy jet with favorable orientation. Euro keeps things more meridional which tempers potential quite a lot.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018093012/180/500wh.conus.png

Some modeling is just nice to look at. :D

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This big western trough is a very favorable pattern for some plains severe weather as well. Juicy jet with favorable orientation. Euro keeps things more meridional which tempers potential quite a lot.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018093012/180/500wh.conus.png

I noticed that too. I'd like cold to come and stay, and I'll take some severe wx if that comes with some cold air.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Question, does this link open up for you guys w/out any issues???  This is NOAA's snow cover map and I'm having problems opening the page as it states I have a privacy error.  Thanks in advance.

 

https://www.natice.noaa.gov/ims/

Tom this link does not open. I got a message stating it is not a secure site.

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Question, does this link open up for you guys w/out any issues???  This is NOAA's snow cover map and I'm having problems opening the page as it states I have a privacy error.  Thanks in advance.

 

https://www.natice.noaa.gov/ims/

If you're using Chrome, click "advanced" down at the bottom and there will be a link to proceed.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Up to 2.5" of rain has fallen in Waterloo overnight/this morning, and it's not done yet.  I've picked up 0.28" since late yesterday.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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It is pouring outside and the radar looks loaded w moisture. If this was Winter and cold air in place, look-out.

 

http://images.intellicast.com/WxImages/RadarLoop/cad_None_anim.gif

 

@Jaster: I think you are alittle too south on all of this moisture today, no? Or, are ya just getting clipped by it. Alittle snow showing up in the Arrowhead of MN if ya look closely.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Still raining moderately and temps are hovering at the 51F range. Definitely, a wet, chilly, Autumn day.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Missing me by like 10 freaking miles again! GRR had 80% Hvy Rain in my grid last night. Didn't get a drop. Please, stop the teases already! At least it's NOT winter, uggh if it was.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Rain finally ended here. Cloudy and damp currently w very cool conditions. Temp is at 51F.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Missing me by like 10 freaking miles again! GRR had 80% Hvy Rain in my grid last night. Didn't get a drop. Please, stop the teases already! At least it's NOT winter, uggh if it was.

Yikes. :o

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Part of Waterloo now up to 3.5" of rain with another heavy cell moving in.  Waterloo just set a new record for wettest month on record, and now they start October with this.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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@Niko

 

Surprised you didn't mention the Medicane in Greece??

 

http://www.intellicast.com/Video/Player.aspx?id=0f197215-78a1-4bc1-8362-cd2a5e74858b

 

 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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The severe potential crapped out.  However, many locations near hw20 in Iowa, between Waterloo and Dubuque, received 3+ inches of rain, with isolated 5+.  Down here in CR, today's system didn't do much.  All the heavy stuff remained north all day and then once it passed through there wasn't much to it.  A couple nice, but little cells went around me, so all I got was light rain.  I'll have to wait til Friday for the next chance of good rain.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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@Niko

 

Surprised you didn't mention the Medicane in Greece??

 

http://www.intellicast.com/Video/Player.aspx?id=0f197215-78a1-4bc1-8362-cd2a5e74858b

Yup....it was no biggie in the Athens area and the surrounding nearby islands. My Islands "Andros" and "Chios" where I usually stay during the Summertime got speared, thank goodness. Northern parts of Greece received some flooding, but nothing extreme. Spoke to family and friends up there and they were laughing about it. Southern parts of Greece (Cyklades) area just saw a little rain and breezy conditions w waves reaching 3-4ft. Today it was sunny and temps in the 70s in the Mediterranean.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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As the ol' saying goes, "great minds, think alike"...nice write up by Gary Lezak this morning regarding the beginning's of the new LRC pattern.  I jumped on the idea of a EC ridge once I saw the Aleutian Ridge in late Sept, but how long does it last???  Still riding on the idea that post 10th, there will be a bigger trough that'll take over the central CONUS.  Actually, I just saw the Euro Weeklies, and it is keeping the central states below normal after the the 10th, even all the way down into deep TX.  @ LNKwx, can you confirm???

 

 

 

 

At 7 PM tonight Rosa will be crossing the coast and spreading some rain into the southwestern United States. The old LRC and new LRC are combining in last years last gasp at frustrating us in KC.  Look at what happens just a couple days later:

http://weatherblog.kshb.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/2-640x435.png

This strong cold front is being generated by the old LRC. The pattern is actually ending on the cold part of the 2017-2018 pattern, and something so incredibly different is developing.  A small storm system is forming near California and this storm gets kicked out as something much larger develops:

http://weatherblog.kshb.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/3-640x398.png

Look at this closely; you have got to be kidding me? Is this really happening? A HUGE trough is predicted by most models to form over the western United States.  This is exhibit A for the new LRC.  This is something so very different. Now, we have to experience this first as it is still on models. It must actually happen first.

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It poured here last night when I went to bed.  ORD set a daily rainfall record of 1.56" of rain on October 1st....what a way to open up a month.  Looking forward to an active month of tracking systems.

 

Speaking of systems, check out the track of Cat 5 Hurricane Walaka near Hawaii way out in the central PAC.  The animation below shows how this storm system gets pulled north from the trough south of the Aleutians, which creates a somewhat "fujiwhara effect", and then tracks up and over the NE PAC ridge, down the west coast coastline and into the deep SW.  Is this system #2 of the LRC???  It's interesting to note, that of the first few systems that have entered into the new cyclical pattern, a couple of them are of tropical origin.  Is this a sign of things to come from Ma Nature???  There are signs that another tropical system may brew up in the Gulf and head north towards the middle of the month.  It's going to be a busy month watching this all unfold.

 

 

 

 

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The first few days of the new wet pattern were pretty underwhelming here in Cedar Rapids.  I only picked up 0.21" late yesterday.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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More rain fell last night. Everything is pretty much saturated. Picked up ova an inch, which makes the total more than 2" for both days. Currently cloudy and milder w temps in the 60s. Some spotty drizzle on and off.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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1001-snow-setup.jpg?v=at&w=485&h=273&api



 




The potential is there folks for a significant snowstorm early next week. Who's ready to be tracking Winterstorms again?!

 

Man, that is a huge trough out west.











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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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1001-snow-setup.jpg?v=at&w=485&h=273&api
 
The potential is there folks for a significant snowstorm early next week. Who's ready to be tracking Winterstorms again?!
 
Man, that is a huge trough out west.

 

Low's going over us. Winter cancel. What a pathetic season.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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