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October 2018 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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Low's going over us. Winter cancel. What a pathetic season.

Very interesting pattern.  Should be a fun season when we can already look at storms in early October.  Been a long time since we could say that no matter what happens next week.  We have had snows in early October but usually very wet and they don't stick around long.  Now later October is a different story, Oct. 31, 1991 comes to mind.

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Very interesting pattern. Should be a fun season when we can already look at storms in early October. Been a long time since we could say that no matter what happens next week. We have had snows in early October but usually very wet and they don't stick around long. Now later October is a different story, Oct. 31, 1991 comes to mind.

Don't forget 1997. I would have paid money to see that in person.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Low's going over us. Winter cancel. What a pathetic season.

 

:lol:  You win the prize for earliest winter cancel post evva!

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Early/mid October surprise? Why not a little front end fun this year. I really don’t feel like raking leaves this Fall anyway.

 

One of my analog seasons even featured that here in SWMI.

 

Oct 12th, 2006 8-12" fell. Earliest deep snows of the modern era.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Low's going over us. Winter cancel. What a pathetic season.

:lol:

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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:lol:  You win the prize for earliest winter cancel post evva!

:lol:

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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The EAR technique is going to be quite useful for the foreseeable future.  Back to back, re-curving Super Typhoons near Japan are going to play out, as well as, carve out the likelihood of the first back-to-back large storm systems of this year's LRC cycle.

 

http://wx.graphics/models/tropical/eps_KONG-REY_current.png

 

 

The first Super Typhoon, which is currently exploding in the Bearing Sea, will be directly correlated to our large Rockies snowstorm later this weekend into early next week.  I'm looking for another piece of energy to rotate around the deep trough out west later next week and eject out of the CO Rockies around the 12th/13th.  This system, may be very interesting bc based on what I'm seeing out in East Asia, our pattern around here should correlate a lot of blocking across S Canada which could suppress the system's track farther south.  Maybe some early snows in the Plains???  It's on the table.

 

Here's my reasoning why there should be more blocking for the second storm.  Notice the HP across the Sea of Okhotsk and the track this storm takes is more easterly, than northerly.  In past experience, the HP in this region correlates to a block in SW Canada.  The models are seeing this blocking HP, actually, the 00z EPS has a strong signal for a large HP....

 

ecmwf-ens_mslpaNorm_npac_10.png

 

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Curious to see how many more 80s Chicago can tack on over the next several weeks. I know we were approaching a record for the year, not sure if anyone knows where we currently stand.

Just got back from my walk and it feels great out there this morning.  Enjoy the day bud!

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Currently cloudy and temps at 55F. Roller coaster ride in temps during the next couple of days. From 70s to 30s and to even a couple of 80s, if ya can believe that. Real cool air settles in by mid October.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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92 today, 44 tomorrow.  The excitement of living on the Central Plains.  Very few places on earth have these extremes of temperatures in such a short period of time.  Air conditioning to running the heat.  Amazing.

Crazy stuff. I already turned on my furnace for the year. Those 80s next week are looking unreal. Probably will not go back to AC mode, since, the warm weather next week is short-lived. Most likely, leave my windows open and or use a my fan/s.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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We are headed for the mid 80s today.  The dewpoint is already 70.  It feels like late spring.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Love the Storm Warning on E Lk Superior! Giddy up for autumn fun and excitement. Wish I could swing a road trip up there for some 1st-hand wave action at Whitefish Point.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Cloudy and some sun trying to peak from time to time. Temps are holding steady in the low 60s. Cools off considerably tomorrow nite as temps tumble into the 30s, after experiencing highs in the 70s.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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We are headed for the mid 80s today.  The dewpoint is already 70.  It feels like late spring.

Or, it might feel like Summer.  :lol:

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Curious to see how many more 80s Chicago can tack on over the next several weeks. I know we were approaching a record for the year, not sure if anyone knows where we currently stand.

Today is #99. The record is 103 days in 2005. I don't think today will be the last one but it'll probably be tough to get to the record.

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Today would be a killer severe weather day up here if the initiation mechanism wasn't a poorly timed cold front... Good T/Td spreads, excellent shear and sufficient CAPE. Wisconsin has these parameters(slightly less CAPE), but somewhat ironically, looks like it might end up over forced.

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2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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Cold front passes here at the perfect time for severe weather but we have basically no MLCAPE (Around 900 J/Kg) which is 100% the reason we're not expecting any storms here prior to the front. Dew point of 65 with a temp near 90 doesn't exactly help either.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Early season snowstorm dumps on Calgary, Canada.......

 

 
calgary-snow-twitter.jpg?v=at&w=485&h=27
 
Per TWC:
 
Snow is removed from a vehicle in Calgary on Oct. 2, 2018.
  • Calgary had its snowiest October day on record Tuesday.
  • It was also the snowiest day for any time of year since the early 1980s.
  • Crews were called in from neighboring cities to help with snow removal.

An early-season winter storm pummeled Calgary, Canada, on Tuesday, vaulting the city to its heaviest single-day snowfall since 1981 and setting a new October snow record.

Calgary International Airport received 12.9 inches (32.8 centimeters) of snow Tuesday. No other single day has had more snow there since May 6, 1981, when a record 19 inches (48.4 centimeters) piled up.

Tuesday's snowfall was also the seventh heaviest for any day in Calgary's weather records dating to 1881, according to a tweet from YYC Weather Records.

When just looking at October, the snowstorm was a calendar day record breaker, topping 11.7 inches (29.7 centimeters) on Oct. 4, 1914.

The storm total for Calgary when including Monday's additional 2 inches (5.3 centimeters) was 15 inches (38.1 centimeters).

Calgary's average October snowfall of 3.9 inches (10 centimeters) was more than tripled by this two-day snowstorm.

The southwestern Canada city also picked up about 30 percent of its annual average snowfall of 50.7 inches (128.8 centimeters) in those two days.

Travel was heavily impacted by the snow.

Calgary police reported 251 collisions during the storm from 11 p.m. Monday to 3:30 p.m. Tuesday, local time.

Crews were called in from Edmonton and other locations to help with snow removal. Edmonton is about 200 miles north of Calgary.

A snow route parking ban went into effect at 10 a.m. Wednesday.

One positive is that trees had mostly shed their leaves for the fall, sparing Calgary from widespread tree damage.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Heat Index hit 88F at 5:15 pm. I was out cutting my lawn extra low from 2-5 pm along with some other stuff to get ready for leaf raking season. I knew it was warm cuz I was sweating pretty good but had no idea it was that warm. The autumn sun angle made it much less punishing than mid-summer. My high for tomorrow's been dropped 3 deg's to 61 (and falling). LOL at a 27 deg pull-back in Mich. This ain't The Plains.

 

I like the wording from Duluth:

Special Weather StatementNational Weather Service Duluth MN351 PM CDT Wed Oct 3 2018MNZ020-021-037-WIZ001-040000-Southern Lake/North Shore-Southern Cook/North Shore-Carlton/South St. Louis-Douglas-Including the cities of Two Harbors, Silver Bay, Grand Marais,Duluth, and Superior351 PM CDT Wed Oct 3 2018...Strong Wind Gusts this Evening...A strong cold front will blast through the region this evening,bringing strong wind gusts this evening through the wee hours ofThursday morning. Areas from Duluth and up along the MinnesotaNorth Shore, and the Bong and Blatnik Bridges between Duluth andSuperior, could see isolated wind gusts to nearly 50 mph late thisevening. Please be advised if you are driving a high profilevehicle that these winds could make driving difficult if notunsafe. The winds will be from the northwest, with the strongestwinds occurring from about 8 pm to 11 pm.$$
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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Just got back home from taking care of errands while cruising with the windows down, radio blasting some good beats, soaking up some delightful summer time warmth.  I'm not gonna lie, it def feels good after our previous cool down.  Had to turn on the A/C....yet again...

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Just got back home from taking care of errands while cruising with the windows down, radio blasting some good beats, soaking up some delightful summer time warmth. I'm not gonna lie, it def feels good after our previous cool down. Had to turn on the A/C....yet again...

Man, I'm glad you're enjoying it buddy!

About the time I get comfortable down here I get tossed back in the furnace for a bit longer. It feels like the 4th summer this year. Lol.

 

The rolla coasta continues....

 

These tall ridges and sudden huge toughing episodes are pretty impressive. There are going to be huge storms late this month and winter. I think this weather is like 1978 If I'm not mistaken.

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Man, I'm glad you're enjoying it buddy!

About the time I get comfortable down here I get tossed back in the furnace for a bit longer. It feels like the 4th summer this year. Lol.

 

The rolla coasta continues....

 

These tall ridges and sudden huge toughing episodes are pretty impressive. There are going to be huge storms late this month and winter. I think this weather is like 1978 If I'm not mistaken.

 

Numerous spots in the southern burbs hit the low 90's, ORD officially tagged 88F...Next week's early warmth will be another delight around here, but then I can see things cool down a bit.  The warmer days allow the leaves to turn brighter, in turn, providing better colors as we begin to see the leaves change color.

 

Don8Y9XX4AAdGl0.jpg

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:) :)  Nice active map just to my north tonight. Hopefully a sign of things to come. Gaylord scoring the rare (for Mich) 100% chance of Severe Storms!

 

20181003 Gaylord graphic.PNG

 

20181003 APX headlines.PNG

 

 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Sub-990 mb's as of 10 pm and really starting to get amped. Have my window ajar and occasionally I hear the S winds rushing thru the trees out back.

 

20181003 10pm mb lines map.gif

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Picked up 0.51" from the line of storms that just moved through. Winds were gusting to around 30-35mph. This brings my October rainfall total so far to 0.78". 

 

Seems like winds are stronger behind the front than they were with the line of storms. Mason City, IA reported a wind gust of 60mph behind the front. 

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