October 2018 Observations and Discussion

[Hawkeye]

I only picked up 0.08" from that line.  I was in the basement watching tv and I didn't even realize it passed through.  I heard nothing.

[jaster220]

Sitting here at 80F at midnight with a HI of 82F, and a very good shot at 30's for a low tomorrow night. These are the kind of CF's we used to get around here back in the good ole days.

[james1976]

Temp dropped from 80 to 53. Way windy. Picked up 0.15" from the line. What a pattern!

[Niko]

Had to post this, even at this hour after watching a late movie.....It is currently at 77F and the time is after midnight, WOW!. Dew is at 68 w a HI at 75. What is wrong w this pic ya'll! Strong CF pushing through later tanite could trigger some weak tornadoes, especially north of DTW. So, temps will be in the 70s for the remainder of the nite and lows in the 30s for Thursday nite. It definitely feels like Summa out there. I have a few Windows open. Ma Nature is teasing us now!

[Niko]

Per NOAA:

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather OutlookNational Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI432 PM EDT Wed Oct 3 2018MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-041930-Midland-Bay-Huron-Saginaw-Tuscola-Sanilac-Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe-432 PM EDT Wed Oct 3 2018This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeastMichigan..DAY ONE...This Afternoon and TonightThere is a chance of thunderstorms tonight with a marginal risk forsevere showers or thunderstorms, and an upgrade to slight risk forthe Tri Cities. The primary hazard is wind gusts to 60 mph between12am and 7am. Storm motion will be west to east at 45 mph..DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through TuesdayMore thunderstorms are possible Friday night into Saturday as a warmfront moves into the region.

[OKwx2k4]

Sitting here at 80F at midnight with a HI of 82F, and a very good shot at 30's for a low tomorrow night. These are the kind of CF's we used to get around here back in the good ole days.

That's awesome! I cant wait for the first blast to finally break the ranks of this ridge pattern.

[Tom]

CF has made its may through a couple hours ago and temps are tanking.  When I woke up about an hour ago, ORD temp was 72F, now its 61F with a gusty NW wind blowing.  50's are knocking on my doorstep.  These are the type of fronts I like to see as the new pattern progresses.

[Tom]

JMA Weeklies are in and they are in agreement with the CFSv2 weeklies that we see a "shift" in the overall North American pattern heading into Weeks 2-4 which allows the SE ridge to get beaten down a bit.  The trough which is developing out west continues to support the idea of a nation divided with winter in the West and summer in the East.

 

Week 1 temps...

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R07_1/Y201810.D0312_gl2.png

 

Week 2 temps...the pattern begins to flatten out as we move past the 10th-12th period which fits the Bearing Sea Rule that I've been monitoring.  This will allow for a more amplified pattern to develop during the last couple weeks of the month and fire up the NW NAMER ridge, but allow for systems to cut underneath the Split Flow pattern in the E PAC.

 

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R07_2/Y201810.D0312_gl2.png

 

 

Weeks 3-4...

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R14_3/Y201810.D0312_gl2.png

 

 

I've been looking for a system to come out of the GOM next week and the latest 00z EPS has taken a big shift into this idea.  This is another beautiful feature of the developing cyclical pattern.  Take notice of the upward motiong off the JMA weeklies for Week 2-4 in this region.

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R07_2/Y201810.D0312_gl0.png

 

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R14_3/Y201810.D0312_gl0.png

 

 

 

00z EPS members show plenty of potential and with troughs swinging through our sub forum, we can see some potential for it to get picked up and develop another southern stream system.  

 

 

[BrianJK]

Today is #99. The record is 103 days in 2005. I don't think today will be the last one but it'll probably be tough to get to the record.

Thanks for this. Yeah, gonna be tough for sure. Could potentially add a couple more early next week. After that though, we’ll just have to see.

[CentralNebWeather]

7:45 AM - 38 degrees, wind chill 28, cloudy with rain approaching.  It has that winter feel.  Yesterday at 5 pm it was 92.  What a change.

[Minny_Weather]

What a morning. As CentralNeb said, quite a temp swing. Wind has slightly died down but the wind chill is still pretty frigid. 38.7*F.

[Niko]

Currently at 68F w breezy conditions. CF has moved on and now the drier, chillier air arrives. Lows tanite will feature 30s.

 

Btw: Colors are here are in full changing mode. I'm thinking patchy.

[CentralNebWeather]

Radar here has been showing some purple, mix, but I have only noticed rain outside my window.  Currently, rain, 37 degrees and wind chill of 25.  Sweet.  

[james1976]

Radar here has been showing some purple, mix, but I have only noticed rain outside my window. Currently, rain, 37 degrees and wind chill of 25. Sweet.

Thats awesome! I bet leaves are droppin.

[Tom]

I haven’t heard Gary Lezak so pumped about this years potential pattern since I’ve known about it. I believed early on, something Spectacular is evolving and these next couple months will sure provide us excitement in the wx dept.

[Hawkeye]

Almost 90 and humid yesterday, froze my hands off looking for migrating birds near my house this morning.

[james1976]

Almost 90 and humid yesterday, froze my hands off looking for migrating birds near my house this morning.

Yeah that was one powerhouse CF. I had 36 on way to work this morning.

[westMJim]

I drove from Cooperstown NY to GR yesterday, (yes, we went the Baseball Hall of Fame) The temperatures were in the upper 50’s until we got to far western NY (10 AM until 12 noon) when they reached the low to mid 60’s (noon until 2PM) temps stayed in the mid 60’s(4PM until 530 PM) across the part of Canada we went thru. Crossed the boarder at Port Huron there the temp was 72(had dinner in PH) reached 77 at Lansing (around 8:30) and Was 81 here at GR (about 10PM).  The leaves are still very green around Grand Rapids compared areas to our east. There is some color in eastern Michigan, and spotty color in southern Ontario, Fair color in western NY with better color around the hills of eastern NY

Today’s  high for Grand Rapids should be 80 set at 3 AM The current temperature with sunny skies here at my house is 62°

[CentralNebWeather]

Thats awesome! I bet leaves are droppin.

Really not falling or turning as quickly as I would have thought.  We will see if that changes in the next week.  

[Minny_Weather]

Really not falling or turning as quickly as I would have thought. We will see if that changes in the next week.

The fact that the next week looks wet won't exactly help with the colors.

[Tom]

First accumulating snows of the season heading towards ND and the Northwoods of MN later tonight!

[bud2380]

3K Nam showing the snow.  Winter Weather Advisories for portions of North Dakota.  

 

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam4km/2018100412/060/snku_acc.us_nc.png

[CentralNebWeather]

The fact that the next week looks wet won't exactly help with the colors.

Yea, I thought the same thing.  A few trees are completely yellow but some are still completely green.  Very strange for this time of year as usually there is more color by Oct. 4th.  

[CentralNebWeather]

Temp has stayed steady all day between 36-37 degrees with a north breeze and rain coming and going.  Forecast was for high of 44 so that might not be reached.  

[Minny_Weather]

Temp has stayed steady all day between 36-37 degrees with a north breeze and rain coming and going. Forecast was for high of 44 so that might not be reached.

We had sun this morning so that allowed for a major temp increase. 54.1°F.

[jaster220]

I haven’t heard Gary Lezak so pumped about this years potential pattern since I’ve known about it. I believed early on, something Spectacular is evolving and these next couple months will sure provide us excitement in the wx dept.

 

Just look at this surface map down his way and it's not hard to understand why

 

[OKwx2k4]

Just look at this surface map down his way and it's not hard to understand why

 

20181005 KC surf system.PNG

That's just awesome.

[jaster220]

Had a beautiful blue sky this afternoon with an awesome plume of Mare's Tails clouds from the next shortwave heading into the region. I love those kind of clouds you don't see except beginning in October and usually through the heart of winter. Always foretelling of a pending storm approaching from the SW. They've been absent around SWMI. In fact I don't remember seeing any last autumn and couldn't tell you when the last time I saw something similar. I do remember the day before the SBS Big Dog was similar, just ofc much colder temps.

[Tom]

The idea of a secondary storm system (12th/13th) tracking farther south compared to the early week storm next week (7th-10th) may have merit.  I'm seeing more model data suggesting another southern stream storm (remnants of powerful Hurricane Sergio), targeting the Plains and cutting up towards the GL's.  A beautiful pattern is unfolding.  Could we have our 2nd wintry storm system in October???

 

 

http://wx.graphics/models/tropical/eps_SERGIO_current.png

 

 

I know its still about a week away, but both the GFS/EURO are flashing a big Plains snowstorm late next week.  Fun pattern unfolding and a wild open to October.  I'm fired up!

 

00z GEFS show a beauty of a TX Panhandle cutter...Can you ask nature for a better set up to open up a critical month for the coming season???

 

 

[Tom]

There has been some model wavering in the extended for how persistent the SER would be, but the BSR was a solid long range tool to use, as it indicated to me that a big trough would engulf the nation post 10th, which now looks like a lock.  Following the 12th/13th storm system, a large cool down is taking over the central CONUS.  

 

 

 

 

 

Looking out ahead into the last 2 weeks of the month, there are a couple of potentially large scale storm systems during the last 2 weeks of October that have my attention (20th-22nd & 26th-28th).  I believe the Gulf of Mexico is going to be a big player in the overall large scale pattern late month.  The water in the GOM is above normal and should provide ample moisture as the STJ continues to amp up.  

 

 

 

 

Check out the 00z GEFS animation below which features the remnants of the Typhoon tracking almost due east into the N PAC, then suddenly track north into the Aleutians.  At this range, my best guess is we see a deep south storm track coming out near TX and tracking up the Apps into the OV.  That's my vision for this storm potential (26th-28th).  We may be on the verge of seeing several wintry storm systems this month across our nation.

[james1976]

Good stuff Tom. Great stuff! That hr 228 temp anomaly map is impressive. The entire nation except maybe Florida below normal.

[FarmerRick]

This sucks. So much for having a nice Autumn...  

[Niko]

Cloudy right now w temps at 48F. Thunderstorms and warmer air is on the way!

[Niko]

Just look at this surface map down his way and it's not hard to understand why

 

20181005 KC surf system.PNG

Get those shovels dusted off, oiled up and gassed up soon ma man.....

[Niko]

Just by looking at my forecast, we could actually be talking about humidity returning again, briefly, as 80s will feature on Saturday and possibly also next week before it starts cooling down for good.

[Hawkeye]

If the big rain amounts around here are going to pan out, tonight needs to deliver.  Activity earlier in the week was already underwhelming, then last night crapped out, and now there is a trend toward tonight's heavy rain band possibly setting up south of Cedar Rapids.  The WPC has it from southeast Iowa to Chicago.

[james1976]

If the big rain amounts around here are going to pan out, tonight needs to deliver. Activity earlier in the week was already underwhelming, then last night crapped out, and now there is a trend toward tonight's heavy rain band possibly setting up south of Cedar Rapids. The WPC has it from southeast Iowa to Chicago.

Yeah not expecting much up here which is prolly alright with water still standing everywhere. GFS is really wet next week.

[jaster220]

Yeah, you guys have had ample rains compared to mby. Let this batch take the slightly further south route. I wanna be excited for this new wet pattern too, lol

 

 

Now, just convert this Flash Flood hatched zone to "Heavy Snow" and..

 

 

 

[Niko]

Yeah, you guys have had ample rains compared to mby. Let this batch take the slightly further south route. I wanna be excited for this new wet pattern too, lol

 

20181005 NOAA wx map.gif

 

Now, just convert this Flash Flood hatched zone to "Heavy Snow" and..

 

BINGO!.jpg

Looks like some beneficial rains coming for you sir.

[Niko]

Currently holding at a coolish 53F w some showers occasionally today. Temps do look like they will be warming up, substantially.