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October 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

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#51
TT-SEA

Posted 01 October 2018 - 01:44 PM

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Steady light rain falling here now. Turning out to be a pretty wet day.

 

 

Light rain and sprinkles most of the day.  



#52
TT-SEA

Posted 01 October 2018 - 01:46 PM

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One of the top analogs for this upcoming pattern featuring a deep western trough at this time of year is 1986... although it was about a week earlier that year.  Anyone remember that period?   I know we talked about 1985 but I don't remember anything about 1986.

 

I do know that period was followed by a 23-day dry spell here into late October 1986.   That is impressive for my area.



#53
Jginmartini

Posted 01 October 2018 - 02:06 PM

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Sept rain 1.91

On my return trip home today ran into drizzle and light rain around Olympia area. Precipitation continued on and off all the way home where it is currently wet out
Arctic air event 12/24/2018 7:08pm

#54
Eujunga

Posted 01 October 2018 - 02:07 PM

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I was in LA at the time, but the September 1986 trough was a beast. I remember thinking, “Woo-hoo! Awesome winter on the way!” but it turned out to be kind of meh

Tujunga, CA (15 miles N of Downtown L.A.) - Elev. 1,860 ft.

 

Eugene, OR (5 miles SSW) - Elev. 850 ft.


#55
Front Ranger

Posted 01 October 2018 - 02:24 PM

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Not surprisingly, the GFS was way too aggressive with Rosa coming ashore in AZ. Much weaker system moving in than what runs from 5-6 days ago were showing. The Euro and FV3 were much closer to reality.


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Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#56
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 October 2018 - 02:32 PM

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Not surprisingly, the GFS was way too aggressive with Rosa coming ashore in AZ. Much weaker system moving in than what runs from 5-6 days ago were showing. The Euro and FV3 were much closer to reality.

Speaking of aggressive...
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_34.png
 


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Snowfall

2018-19: 0.1"

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#57
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 October 2018 - 02:33 PM

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GFS wants to focus the precip where it is needed...

 

gfs_apcpn_nwus_35.png


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Snowfall

2018-19: 0.1"

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#58
Chewbacca Defense

Posted 01 October 2018 - 04:02 PM

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It’s a dry cold. I have friends whose parents visit from Saskatchewan every winter and they complain about how cold it feels here, on a damp night with temps in the upper 20’s and a breeze off the ocean. It really is hard to compare the two, but I’m sure others will disagree.

 

 

I agree to a point, just like the "dry heat thing".....I don't care how dry it is, 115 degrees sucks!  Same could be said on the cold side....The coldest I have experienced is about -18 to -22.  While I have been in "warmer" more humid conditions (10-15 degrees here in Bellingham) and felt colder in my core, -18 hits the extremities pretty quick, not to mention the wind if you are not layered up properly.  

 

My son will be walking to class, plus he plays in the marching band which equates to about an 8 hour day outside in the elements, so he will be out in it a lot more.  Also, Bozeman appears to get pretty windy, although I'm told by my mother in law that if you ask a native Montanian, only Livingston and Great Falls get "windy"  LOL


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#59
Geos

Posted 01 October 2018 - 04:05 PM

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First windy system tomorrow.

 

WeatherStory1.png?62f9f1931c1cf340b75862

 

Raining again - nothing over light though today.


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Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft

2018 moisture: 38.63", 12/13
Lowest Temp of Winter 2018: 27°, 12/7

 

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 0.00"2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam: http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2
https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#60
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 01 October 2018 - 04:11 PM

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73F and still bone dry in Springfield.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 18-19 Stats:

Coldest high: 37 (Dec 7)
Coldest low: 22 (Dec 6 & 7)

Days with below freezing temps: 13
Total snowfall: 0"
Last accumulating snowfall: February 21-22, 2018
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 1990

Personal Stats:

Last accumulating snowfall: March 6, 2017
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 2008

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope


#61
Kayla

Posted 01 October 2018 - 04:19 PM

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It’s a dry cold. I have friends whose parents visit from Saskatchewan every winter and they complain about how cold it feels here, on a damp night with temps in the upper 20’s and a breeze off the ocean. It really is hard to compare the two, but I’m sure others will disagree.

 

This is true only to a certain extent. Low single digits above zero and anything below zero is just plain cold no matter how you spin it. Even just a slight breeze with those temps (wind is pretty common here) cuts right through you which you just never really experience anywhere in the PNW western lowlands.

 

Also when it does get really cold in the PNW (teens or below) it is also quite dry and continental anyway.


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Cold Season 2018/19:

Total snowfall: 41.0"
Highest daily snowfall: 7.0"

Highest snow depth: 8.0"

Coldest high: 20.8º
Coldest low: -2.6º

Number of subzero days: 1

 

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...OZEM152#history


#62
Farmboy

Posted 01 October 2018 - 04:52 PM

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Many of those inland valleys in SW OR are semi-arid. Medford only averages about 20" of precip a year.
 
Roseburg - 33"
Grants Pass - 30"
Ashland - 20"
Medford - 19"


I wonder how the drought has affected those averages.
"Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness."

#63
MossMan

Posted 01 October 2018 - 05:05 PM

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Heavy duty drizzle here over the last few hours.

#64
TT-SEA

Posted 01 October 2018 - 05:17 PM

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Heavy duty drizzle here over the last few hours.

 

 

Same here.

 

Also nice to see that SEA has picked up .26 so far this afternoon.    Finally an event that is delivering rain equally across the area!  


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#65
Farmboy

Posted 01 October 2018 - 05:27 PM

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Driving past Mt. Shasta, new snow visible just below the cloud deck..

Also, the big fire along I-5 between Yreka and the state line looked completely out, but it still smelled of charred trees & grass, pretty gross...
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"Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness."

#66
Jginmartini

Posted 01 October 2018 - 06:01 PM

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.24 so far today in Federal Way and it continues
Arctic air event 12/24/2018 7:08pm

#67
MossMan

Posted 01 October 2018 - 06:09 PM

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First windy system tomorrow.

WeatherStory1.png?62f9f1931c1cf340b75862

Raining again - nothing over light though today.

Good thing I have the generator ready to rock and roll!

#68
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 01 October 2018 - 06:31 PM

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Same here.

Also nice to see that SEA has picked up .26 so far this afternoon. Finally an event that is delivering rain equally across the area!


Would love some.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 18-19 Stats:

Coldest high: 37 (Dec 7)
Coldest low: 22 (Dec 6 & 7)

Days with below freezing temps: 13
Total snowfall: 0"
Last accumulating snowfall: February 21-22, 2018
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 1990

Personal Stats:

Last accumulating snowfall: March 6, 2017
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 2008

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope


#69
Andrew.

Posted 01 October 2018 - 06:44 PM

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Attached File  Elon Musk on the Joe Rogan Experience 01102018192726.jpg   84.64KB   1 downloads
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#70
seattleweatherguy

Posted 01 October 2018 - 06:45 PM

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First windy system tomorrow.

WeatherStory1.png?62f9f1931c1cf340b75862

Raining again - nothing over light though today.


Going to be that windy?

#71
Phil

Posted 01 October 2018 - 08:06 PM

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The 18z ECMWF just went operational today. Lol.
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Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...pwsdash#history

#72
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 01 October 2018 - 08:10 PM

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The 18z ECMWF just went operational today. Lol.

 

Riding that model 4 times a day.  Get the cialis!!


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Springfield, Oregon cold season 18-19 Stats:

Coldest high: 37 (Dec 7)
Coldest low: 22 (Dec 6 & 7)

Days with below freezing temps: 13
Total snowfall: 0"
Last accumulating snowfall: February 21-22, 2018
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 1990

Personal Stats:

Last accumulating snowfall: March 6, 2017
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 2008

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope


#73
snow_wizard

Posted 01 October 2018 - 08:45 PM

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Looking like some impressivley chilly weather coming up.  925mb temps drop well below freezing in extreme southern BC during the next couple of days and some unseasonably cool air sags into WA.  Later this week and early next week the GFS depicts a lot of days with low thickness values and northerly surface gradients.  Should be widespread frost showing up in the coming days.

 

If the cold pattern verifies it is essential we stay away from El Nino this winter.  October cold snaps during El Nino seasons are usually spell a horrible winter.  Barring a Nino, however, I think we are on a really good path here.


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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2018-19 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 26

Lows 32 or below = 13

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 


#74
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 01 October 2018 - 09:03 PM

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Fascinating read, thanks for posting.

Little bit damp this morning here.


This winter marks the 50th year anniversary of that epic winter. We're due for something like that to happen again.

#75
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 01 October 2018 - 09:05 PM

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I can't believe it's October already. Before we know it, we can legitimately start tracking Arctic Blast soon.

#76
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 01 October 2018 - 09:07 PM

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The 18z ECMWF just went operational today. Lol.

Riding that model 4 times a day. Get the cialis!!


Going to be a wild rollercoaster ride this season!

#77
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 01 October 2018 - 09:14 PM

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Looking like some impressivley chilly weather coming up. 925mb temps drop well below freezing in extreme southern BC during the next couple of days and some unseasonably cool air sags into WA. Later this week and early next week the GFS depicts a lot of days with low thickness values and northerly surface gradients. Should be widespread frost showing up in the coming days.

If the cold pattern verifies it is essential we stay away from El Nino this winter. October cold snaps during El Nino seasons are usually spell a horrible winter. Barring a Nino, however, I think we are on a really good path here.


How about 1968-69? It had a colder than normal October here in the PNW and the coldest anomalies in the US were in the PNW.

214dugk.jpg

#78
Phil

Posted 01 October 2018 - 09:15 PM

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Riding that model 4 times a day. Get the cialis!!


We’re never gonna sleep. :lol:

06z goes operational tonight.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...pwsdash#history

#79
ShawniganLake

Posted 01 October 2018 - 09:31 PM

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Attached File  F39D1C7B-0FD1-4B93-A13C-715B24919EEB.jpeg   43.28KB   0 downloads

Snow is increasing this evening in the BC Cariboo. Kind of disappointing that I’m not heading up to the cabin this weekend with some of the rest of my family.

Some of the mountain passes are expecting total amounts up to 16”
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#80
Front Ranger

Posted 01 October 2018 - 09:50 PM

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How about 1968-69? It had a colder than normal October here in the PNW and the coldest anomalies in the US were in the PNW.

214dugk.jpg

 

1972 is another El Nino year that featured some very chilly weather in the PNW in October and turned out alright.


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Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#81
iFred

Posted 01 October 2018 - 10:12 PM

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Nice to see you around.


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#82
TT-SEA

Posted 01 October 2018 - 10:27 PM

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00Z ECMWF sends the bulk of the rain from Olympia SOUTHWARD on Friday.    :)

 

ecmwf_precip_24_nw_19.png

 

Saturday and Sunday are completely dry up here on the 00Z run.    Some morning showers in Oregon on Saturday and then dry down there as well.   


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#83
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 01 October 2018 - 10:46 PM

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00Z ECMWF sends the bulk of the rain from Olympia SOUTHWARD on Friday. :)

ecmwf_precip_24_nw_19.png

Saturday and Sunday are completely dry up here on the 00Z run. Some morning showers in Oregon on Saturday and then dry down there as well.


Really hope this doesn't trend north. Can't believe how cracked and parched everything still is for the central and south valley.

Thank you for posting these EC maps that I am too poor to access. 🙏🏻🙏🏻

Springfield, Oregon cold season 18-19 Stats:

Coldest high: 37 (Dec 7)
Coldest low: 22 (Dec 6 & 7)

Days with below freezing temps: 13
Total snowfall: 0"
Last accumulating snowfall: February 21-22, 2018
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 1990

Personal Stats:

Last accumulating snowfall: March 6, 2017
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 2008

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope


#84
TT-SEA

Posted 01 October 2018 - 10:49 PM

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Really hope this doesn't trend north. Can't believe how cracked and parched everything still is for the central and south valley.

Thank you for posting these EC maps that I am too poor to access.

 

 

Its dumping rain here right now... again.   



#85
Brennan

Posted 02 October 2018 - 03:10 AM

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Had some heavy rainfall here off and on this evening which caught me by surprise after drizzle all day long...

 

Last year it snowed several inches exactly one month from now in Bellingham.... with a modified arctic blast...


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#86
WSmet

Posted 02 October 2018 - 03:54 AM

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Had some heavy rainfall here off and on this evening which caught me by surprise after drizzle all day long...

 

Last year it snowed several inches exactly one month from now in Bellingham.... with a modified arctic blast...

Whatever you did THAT DAY, do it again.


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#87
TT-SEA

Posted 02 October 2018 - 05:24 AM

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.80 here and about .60 in the valley for October now.  Might get the same again as the c-zone slides south.     We could be at 25% of normal rainfall for the month after 2 days.  



#88
TT-SEA

Posted 02 October 2018 - 05:29 AM

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Had some heavy rainfall here off and on this evening which caught me by surprise after drizzle all day long...

 

Last year it snowed several inches exactly one month from now in Bellingham.... with a modified arctic blast...

 

 

Here is a picture posted on here from that event in Bellingham... from Twitter.

 

post-164-0-54891900-1509712533.jpg

 

 

And here is a web cam image from the next morning that I posted...

 

bv5.png


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#89
Geos

Posted 02 October 2018 - 05:41 AM

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00Z ECMWF sends the bulk of the rain from Olympia SOUTHWARD on Friday.    :)

 

ecmwf_precip_24_nw_19.png

 

Saturday and Sunday are completely dry up here on the 00Z run.    Some morning showers in Oregon on Saturday and then dry down there as well.   

 

I'd be alright with that. 

 

Weird line of rain this morning...

 

ATX.N0Q.20181002.1337.gif


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft

2018 moisture: 38.63", 12/13
Lowest Temp of Winter 2018: 27°, 12/7

 

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 0.00"2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam: http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2
https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#90
TT-SEA

Posted 02 October 2018 - 05:55 AM

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I'd be alright with that.

Weird line of rain this morning...

ATX.N0Q.20181002.1337.gif

That is the c-zone... broad SW flow.

That line will slowly pivot to the SE and be in a straight west-east configuration along the King/Snohimish county line by late this afternoon.
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#91
MossMan

Posted 02 October 2018 - 05:55 AM

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Heavy rain.
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#92
Geos

Posted 02 October 2018 - 05:59 AM

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That is the c-zone... broad SW flow.
That line will slowly pivot to the SE and be in a straight west-east configuration along the King/Snohimish county line by late this afternoon.


I knew it was something like that. Just trying to remember the last time the radar showed that. Already breezy here this morning.

Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft

2018 moisture: 38.63", 12/13
Lowest Temp of Winter 2018: 27°, 12/7

 

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 0.00"2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam: http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2
https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#93
TT-SEA

Posted 02 October 2018 - 06:11 AM

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I knew it was something like that. Just trying to remember the last time the radar showed that. Already breezy here this morning.

 

 

It actually fairly common right behind a storm that moves through the region heading to the NE.     

 

This morning we have a trough dipping down with broad SW flow... which is another way to get one of those SW to NE oriented c-zones.

 

gfs_z500_mslp_us_3.png


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#94
Jesse

Posted 02 October 2018 - 06:59 AM

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Mild night. 58 for a low. Temps could be in the upper 40s to around 50 by midnight, though. Very decent dry cold front moving through today.

#95
VancouverIslandSouth

Posted 02 October 2018 - 07:18 AM

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Probably won't amount to anything special but something like this is always interesting to track:

 

NYXVjfs.png


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#96
ShawniganLake

Posted 02 October 2018 - 07:31 AM

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Pretty impressive storm cutting through southern BC this morning. Clinton is reporting 1/4 mile visibility in heavy snow. 25F with a north wind gusting to 22 mph. Average high this time of year is 57F.
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#97
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 02 October 2018 - 07:58 AM

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00Z ECMWF sends the bulk of the rain from Olympia SOUTHWARD on Friday. :)

ecmwf_precip_24_nw_19.png

Saturday and Sunday are completely dry up here on the 00Z run. Some morning showers in Oregon on Saturday and then dry down there as well.


It shows close to 3" of rain down here for PDX for the next 10 days.

2i0d6ax.jpg

#98
MossMan

Posted 02 October 2018 - 08:00 AM

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Had just over a half an inch of rain from this mornings PSCZ. Wet!!

#99
Deweydog

Posted 02 October 2018 - 08:02 AM

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Pretty impressive storm cutting through southern BC this morning. Clinton is reporting 1/4 mile visibility in heavy snow. 25F with a north wind gusting to 22 mph. Average high this time of year is 57F.


Not bad considering we're entering a blowtorch October.

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#100
Phil

Posted 02 October 2018 - 08:16 AM

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Here is a picture posted on here from that event in Bellingham... from Twitter.

post-164-0-54891900-1509712533.jpg


And here is a web cam image from the next morning that I posted...

bv5.png


:wub: :wub: :wub:
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