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October 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest


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Well, the wavenumber would never be this high during the winter (Aleutian Low + GOA ridge + western trough can only occur during the summer and autumn). So technically speaking “this” particular pattern is unlikely to repeat itself.

Winter cancel.

 

I'm driving through southern Oregon at the moment, I'm actually surprised how far along the fall colors are for October 1...

"Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness."

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You were probably very close to normal, even if that map technically show you a little above. Sandpoint had 1.41", which is slightly below normal for them.

 

Yeah they're 3.5 miles SW of here. Nearer to the county line they were above normal. Bothell got hit repeatedly by the CZ, while there was just scraps out it here as they fell apart.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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I found this kind of interesting. This shrub had the look of many arid-land desert plants I've seen in New Mexico and Texas. This is just off I-5 in Sutherlin, OR... Desertification of southwest Oregon in progress?

IMG_20181001_124722.jpg

"Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness."

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My son texted us yesterday that *news flash* it snowed on campus.  No S*** Sherlock you moved to Montana. One thing that is a bit unusual, my Mother in law said it has snowed somewhere in Montana every month this year (I don't know if any of the mountain peaks see snow in the summer so that statistic might have an asterisk next to it for snowfall in "populated" areas.)

 

 

Looks like they start getting some cold weather starting next weekend.  My son is being a pretty typical teenager over the whole thing...he is ready for it....his grandma (native Montanian) saw his (Bellingham winter) coat this past weekend, called us and told us that was not going to cut it in Bozeman come November.  His girlfriend (also a native Montanian, but with far fewer winters under her belt) says its fine.  Being a typical teenage boy, guess who he is listening to....

 

 

I'm thinking of starting a pool as to how long it takes my son to call me asking if he can buy a real winter coat...

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My son texted us yesterday that *news flash* it snowed on campus. No S*** Sherlock you moved to Montana. One thing that is a bit unusual, my Mother in law said it has snowed somewhere in Montana every month this year (I don't know if any of the mountain peaks see snow in the summer so that statistic might have an asterisk next to it for snowfall in "populated" areas.)

 

 

Looks like they start getting some cold weather starting next weekend. My son is being a pretty typical teenager over the whole thing...he is ready for it....his grandma (native Montanian) saw his (Bellingham winter) coat this past weekend, called us and told us that was not going to cut it in Bozeman come November. His girlfriend (also a native Montanian, but with far fewer winters under her belt) says its fine. Being a typical teenage boy, guess who he is listening to....

 

 

I'm thinking of starting a pool as to how long it takes my son to call me asking if he can buy a real winter coat...

It’s a dry cold. I have friends whose parents visit from Saskatchewan every winter and they complain about how cold it feels here, on a damp night with temps in the upper 20’s and a breeze off the ocean. It really is hard to compare the two, but I’m sure others will disagree.
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I found this kind of interesting. This shrub had the look of many arid-land desert plants I've seen in New Mexico and Texas. This is just off I-5 in Sutherlin, OR... Desertification of southwest Oregon in progress?

 

Many of those inland valleys in SW OR are semi-arid. Medford only averages about 20" of precip a year.

 

Roseburg - 33"

Grants Pass - 30"

Ashland - 20"

Medford - 19"

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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One of the top analogs for this upcoming pattern featuring a deep western trough at this time of year is 1986... although it was about a week earlier that year.  Anyone remember that period?   I know we talked about 1985 but I don't remember anything about 1986.

 

I do know that period was followed by a 23-day dry spell here into late October 1986.   That is impressive for my area.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Not surprisingly, the GFS was way too aggressive with Rosa coming ashore in AZ. Much weaker system moving in than what runs from 5-6 days ago were showing. The Euro and FV3 were much closer to reality.

Speaking of aggressive...

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_34.png

 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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GFS wants to focus the precip where it is needed...

 

gfs_apcpn_nwus_35.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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It’s a dry cold. I have friends whose parents visit from Saskatchewan every winter and they complain about how cold it feels here, on a damp night with temps in the upper 20’s and a breeze off the ocean. It really is hard to compare the two, but I’m sure others will disagree.

 

 

I agree to a point, just like the "dry heat thing".....I don't care how dry it is, 115 degrees sucks!  Same could be said on the cold side....The coldest I have experienced is about -18 to -22.  While I have been in "warmer" more humid conditions (10-15 degrees here in Bellingham) and felt colder in my core, -18 hits the extremities pretty quick, not to mention the wind if you are not layered up properly.  

 

My son will be walking to class, plus he plays in the marching band which equates to about an 8 hour day outside in the elements, so he will be out in it a lot more.  Also, Bozeman appears to get pretty windy, although I'm told by my mother in law that if you ask a native Montanian, only Livingston and Great Falls get "windy"  LOL

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First windy system tomorrow.

 

WeatherStory1.png?62f9f1931c1cf340b75862

 

Raining again - nothing over light though today.

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Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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73F and still bone dry in Springfield.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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It’s a dry cold. I have friends whose parents visit from Saskatchewan every winter and they complain about how cold it feels here, on a damp night with temps in the upper 20’s and a breeze off the ocean. It really is hard to compare the two, but I’m sure others will disagree.

 

This is true only to a certain extent. Low single digits above zero and anything below zero is just plain cold no matter how you spin it. Even just a slight breeze with those temps (wind is pretty common here) cuts right through you which you just never really experience anywhere in the PNW western lowlands.

 

Also when it does get really cold in the PNW (teens or below) it is also quite dry and continental anyway.

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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Many of those inland valleys in SW OR are semi-arid. Medford only averages about 20" of precip a year.

 

Roseburg - 33"

Grants Pass - 30"

Ashland - 20"

Medford - 19"

I wonder how the drought has affected those averages.

"Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness."

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Heavy duty drizzle here over the last few hours.

 

 

Same here.

 

Also nice to see that SEA has picked up .26 so far this afternoon.    Finally an event that is delivering rain equally across the area!  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Driving past Mt. Shasta, new snow visible just below the cloud deck..

 

Also, the big fire along I-5 between Yreka and the state line looked completely out, but it still smelled of charred trees & grass, pretty gross...

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"Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness."

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First windy system tomorrow.

 

WeatherStory1.png?62f9f1931c1cf340b75862

 

Raining again - nothing over light though today.

Good thing I have the generator ready to rock and roll!

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Same here.

 

Also nice to see that SEA has picked up .26 so far this afternoon. Finally an event that is delivering rain equally across the area!

Would love some.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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The 18z ECMWF just went operational today. Lol.

 

Riding that model 4 times a day.  Get the cialis!!

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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Looking like some impressivley chilly weather coming up.  925mb temps drop well below freezing in extreme southern BC during the next couple of days and some unseasonably cool air sags into WA.  Later this week and early next week the GFS depicts a lot of days with low thickness values and northerly surface gradients.  Should be widespread frost showing up in the coming days.

 

If the cold pattern verifies it is essential we stay away from El Nino this winter.  October cold snaps during El Nino seasons are usually spell a horrible winter.  Barring a Nino, however, I think we are on a really good path here.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Looking like some impressivley chilly weather coming up. 925mb temps drop well below freezing in extreme southern BC during the next couple of days and some unseasonably cool air sags into WA. Later this week and early next week the GFS depicts a lot of days with low thickness values and northerly surface gradients. Should be widespread frost showing up in the coming days.

 

If the cold pattern verifies it is essential we stay away from El Nino this winter. October cold snaps during El Nino seasons are usually spell a horrible winter. Barring a Nino, however, I think we are on a really good path here.

How about 1968-69? It had a colder than normal October here in the PNW and the coldest anomalies in the US were in the PNW.

 

http://oi67.tinypic.com/214dugk.jpg

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Riding that model 4 times a day. Get the cialis!!

We’re never gonna sleep. :lol:

 

06z goes operational tonight.

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How about 1968-69? It had a colder than normal October here in the PNW and the coldest anomalies in the US were in the PNW.

 

http://oi67.tinypic.com/214dugk.jpg

 

1972 is another El Nino year that featured some very chilly weather in the PNW in October and turned out alright.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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00Z ECMWF sends the bulk of the rain from Olympia SOUTHWARD on Friday.    :)

 

ecmwf_precip_24_nw_19.png

 

Saturday and Sunday are completely dry up here on the 00Z run.    Some morning showers in Oregon on Saturday and then dry down there as well.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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