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October 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

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#101
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 02 October 2018 - 08:19 AM

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Yeah, I remember those early November cold air pushes into N. Washington. We saw none of that down here.


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Snowfall

2018-19: 0.1"

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#102
TT-SEA

Posted 02 October 2018 - 08:32 AM

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12Z GFS is much drier early next week than the 00Z ECMWF.  

 

12Z ICON is more like the 00Z ECMWF.



#103
Phil

Posted 02 October 2018 - 08:34 AM

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I’m really starting to worry about another US hurricane impact this month. Pattern sucks a big one..huge WATL ridge preventing recurves and a favorable MJO for WHEM uplift = trouble.

Any cold front that makes it into the waters runs the risk of igniting a warm core low underneath than steroidal Bermuda High. Ticking time bomb.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...pwsdash#history

#104
MossMan

Posted 02 October 2018 - 08:44 AM

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This was November 5th of last year near Lake Goodwin.

Attached Files


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#105
Phil

Posted 02 October 2018 - 08:48 AM

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This will make Jesse happy, and Tim sad.

The WPAC is dead for (at least) the next 2 weeks. It’s been awhile since we’ve seen this look in the VP200 anomalies.

vwefYi9.png
5Db4fmh.png
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...pwsdash#history

#106
MossMan

Posted 02 October 2018 - 08:48 AM

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12Z GFS is much drier early next week than the 00Z ECMWF.

12Z ICON is more like the 00Z ECMWF.

Hopefully the 12z GFS will end up verifying...we are already quite soggy up here and it’s only October 2nd so we could use a few dry days.

#107
Jginmartini

Posted 02 October 2018 - 08:59 AM

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Probably won't amount to anything special but something like this is always interesting to track:
 
NYXVjfs.png

Feels the same way!

Northern California getting some much needed love too

Attached Files


Arctic air event 12/24/2018 7:08pm

#108
Timmy

Posted 02 October 2018 - 09:01 AM

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Yeah, I remember those early November cold air pushes into N. Washington. We saw none of that down here.


Wouldn’t be possible anymore these days
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#109
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 02 October 2018 - 09:02 AM

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Pretty shockingly dry for the 2017-18 rain year. Medford with only 11.47"

 

43015812_2119786768039709_35836379778273


Snowfall

2018-19: 0.1"

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#110
Deweydog

Posted 02 October 2018 - 09:05 AM

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Utterly stunning.

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#111
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 02 October 2018 - 09:07 AM

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Utterly stunning.

 

Completely FLABBERGASTED! 


Snowfall

2018-19: 0.1"

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#112
Deweydog

Posted 02 October 2018 - 09:11 AM

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Just think, if it had been drier those totals could have been even lower.
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All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#113
Jesse

Posted 02 October 2018 - 09:20 AM

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Area of light drizzle has moved through the metro area. Skies are clearing now.

#114
TT-SEA

Posted 02 October 2018 - 09:22 AM

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Wet water year here... 10-15 inches above normal per this map!   

 

Side note... SEA ended up +1.82 inches for the water year so not sure why it shows below normal there on this map.  

 

anomimage.gif



#115
Jesse

Posted 02 October 2018 - 09:23 AM

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Looks like the process of toning down the Friday system has begun. Will be lucky to get .25”.

#116
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 02 October 2018 - 09:25 AM

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Looks like the process of toning down the Friday system has begun. Will be lucky to get .25”.

 

Doesn't really look like the kind of system that would deliver much more than that. Should be good upslope for 1" in some of the orographically favored locales. 


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Snowfall

2018-19: 0.1"

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#117
Jesse

Posted 02 October 2018 - 09:26 AM

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Wet water year here... 10-15 inches above normal per this map!

Side note... SEA ended up +1.82 inches for the water year so not sure why it shows below normal there on this map.


Utterly stunning.

#118
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 02 October 2018 - 09:27 AM

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Clearing line approaching from the WNW

 

42936436_329798294460712_479389666877059


Snowfall

2018-19: 0.1"

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#119
Jesse

Posted 02 October 2018 - 09:27 AM

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Doesn't really look like the kind of system that would deliver much more than that. Should be good upslope for 1" in some of the orographically favored locales.


Hard to believe we are approaching six months since our last real organized system.
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#120
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 02 October 2018 - 09:29 AM

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Hard to believe we are approaching six months since our last real organized system.

 

Reading this forum you would never know!


Snowfall

2018-19: 0.1"

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#121
TT-SEA

Posted 02 October 2018 - 09:29 AM

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Hard to believe we are approaching six months since our last real organized system.

 

 

This looks fairly organized...

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_14.png



#122
TT-SEA

Posted 02 October 2018 - 09:30 AM

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Reading this forum you would never know!

 

 

You would think we live in different states with very different weather!  



#123
TT-SEA

Posted 02 October 2018 - 09:31 AM

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Utterly stunning.

 

 

Sort of interesting that we can be around a foot above our normal rainfall over the last year in areas up here considering the region-wide crippling drought.



#124
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 02 October 2018 - 09:32 AM

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So I am hearing if we have a cold October and a Nino we are screwed.

 

But if we just have a warm neutral combined with a cold October we are in business...

 

Also hearing it is unclear whether we will have a Nino or just a warm neutral winter. 

 

Thus I do not know if I want a cold October or a warm one!


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Snowfall

2018-19: 0.1"

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#125
TT-SEA

Posted 02 October 2018 - 09:33 AM

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So I am hearing if we have a cold October and a Nino we are screwed.

 

But if we just have a warm neutral combined with a cold October we are in business...

 

Also hearing it is unclear whether we will have a Nino or just a warm neutral winter. 

 

Thus I do not know if I want a cold October or a warm one!

 

 

I was going to say this last night but decided it was not worth the battle.   :lol:


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#126
ShawniganLake

Posted 02 October 2018 - 09:38 AM

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I was going to say this last night but decided it was not worth the battle. :lol:

It’ll come down to a couple tenths of a degree of the ocean temps out in the central pacific, as to whether or not it snows here this winter.
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#127
Deweydog

Posted 02 October 2018 - 09:42 AM

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So I am hearing if we have a cold October and a Nino we are screwed.

But if we just have a warm neutral combined with a cold October we are in business...

Also hearing it is unclear whether we will have a Nino or just a warm neutral winter.

Thus I do not know if I want a cold October or a warm one!


I'm going with a wait-and-see approach. Similar to the last 43 winters during my lifetime.

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#128
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 02 October 2018 - 09:42 AM

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It’ll come down to a couple tenths of a degree of the ocean temps out in the central pacific, as to whether or not it snows here this winter.

 

The suspense is killing me.


Snowfall

2018-19: 0.1"

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#129
ShawniganLake

Posted 02 October 2018 - 09:49 AM

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Not bad considering we're entering a blowtorch October.

Will likely end up being the biggest snowstorm of the season in that area. Updated forecast includes a winter storm warning with totals through this afternoon of up to 18”.

#130
Phil

Posted 02 October 2018 - 09:55 AM

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So I am hearing if we have a cold October and a Nino we are screwed.

But if we just have a warm neutral combined with a cold October we are in business...

Also hearing it is unclear whether we will have a Nino or just a warm neutral winter.

Thus I do not know if I want a cold October or a warm one!


Strange how obsessed this place is with imaginary correlations.

It’s pretty simple in this case. Phase 8/1 MJO/convection is relatively common in +ENSO regimes, and during September and October, that favors western troughing given the seasonal cycle of the wavetrain.

dTJj95O.jpg
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...pwsdash#history

#131
Phil

Posted 02 October 2018 - 09:58 AM

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Low-and-behold, look at where forcing is right now.

hWUMzJo.gif
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...pwsdash#history

#132
Phil

Posted 02 October 2018 - 10:03 AM

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Long story short, it’s just typical +ENSO-ish behavior, and the fate of winter will *not* be determined by whether the trimonthly ONI reaches +0.5C, or falls just short by a fraction of a degree. :)
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...pwsdash#history

#133
Jesse

Posted 02 October 2018 - 10:32 AM

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Long story short, it’s just typical +ENSO-ish behavior, and the fate of winter will *not* be determined by whether the trimonthly ONI reaches +0.5C, or falls just short by a fraction of a degree. :)


#iceagemeow

#134
Front Ranger

Posted 02 October 2018 - 10:33 AM

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Wet water year here... 10-15 inches above normal per this map!   

 

Side note... SEA ended up +1.82 inches for the water year so not sure why it shows below normal there on this map.  

 

anomimage.gif

 

Probably because it's based off multiple stations in that area.

 

I know, that doesn't fit with the "SEA has been WAY drier than everywhere else" theory.  ;)


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#135
Front Ranger

Posted 02 October 2018 - 10:37 AM

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So I am hearing if we have a cold October and a Nino we are screwed.

 

But if we just have a warm neutral combined with a cold October we are in business...

 

Also hearing it is unclear whether we will have a Nino or just a warm neutral winter. 

 

Thus I do not know if I want a cold October or a warm one!

 

We're going to be looking at a 9/20 - 10/10 period that is pretty chilly. Regardless of ENSO, that is historically correlated to some pretty good winters.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#136
Front Ranger

Posted 02 October 2018 - 10:38 AM

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Strange how obsessed this place is with imaginary correlations.

It’s pretty simple in this case. Phase 8/1 MJO/convection is relatively common in +ENSO regimes, and during September and October, that favors western troughing given the seasonal cycle of the wavetrain.
 

 

Not gonna get into this with you again, Phil. But very real correlations have been posted on here plenty of times before, and you've dismissed them because you didn't agree with how they were reached.

 

But they are still existing correlations. That's all. No less real than the October correlations you've posted about.  :)


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#137
Jesse

Posted 02 October 2018 - 11:02 AM

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Not gonna get into this with you again, Phil.


Seems like that’s exactly what you’re doing. :lol:
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#138
Jake

Posted 02 October 2018 - 11:20 AM

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Getting wet here.

Attached Files


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#139
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 02 October 2018 - 11:25 AM

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Beautiful 69F in Eugene/Springfield. Expected to get to 42 tonight so nice and chilly.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 18-19 Stats:

Coldest high: 37 (Dec 7)
Coldest low: 22 (Dec 6 & 7)

Days with below freezing temps: 13
Total snowfall: 0"
Last accumulating snowfall: February 21-22, 2018
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 1990

Personal Stats:

Last accumulating snowfall: March 6, 2017
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 2008

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope


#140
Canadian guy

Posted 02 October 2018 - 11:43 AM

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Hope currently 42 with rain and outflow winds and Abbotsford is 57 with SW winds.


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#141
Phil

Posted 02 October 2018 - 11:44 AM

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Not gonna get into this with you again, Phil. But very real correlations have been posted on here plenty of times before, and you've dismissed them because you didn't agree with how they were reached.

But they are still existing correlations. That's all. No less real than the October correlations you've posted about. :)


Negatory. There is no October - Winter correlation that isn’t explained by ENSO or other lower frequency forcings that reside beneath the scale of intraseasonal variance. This is a fact, and denying it won’t change reality.

For instance, in years with a belated seasonal ITCZ/MMC cycles and/or transitioning QBOs (like last year) there is actually an *inverse* correlation between the structure of the October wavetrain and the structure of the midwinter wavetrain over North America. In other cases, there is indeed a positive correlation. But the point is that there are decipherable reasons for these correlations and they’re not confined to any particular calandar month.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...pwsdash#history

#142
Deweydog

Posted 02 October 2018 - 11:51 AM

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Well below average for the water year so far...
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All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#143
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 02 October 2018 - 11:56 AM

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Ben Noll@BenNollWeather

After the exceptional eastern early October warmth fades, some chillier conditions are likely, but milder air may be back in time for November. Cold in the Plains, early snows northern tier?

https://mobile.twitt...902542217576448

#144
WeatherArchive

Posted 02 October 2018 - 11:56 AM

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Well below average for the water year so far...

Except some people's backyards.



#145
BLI snowman

Posted 02 October 2018 - 11:59 AM

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Well below average for the water year so far...

 

It is funny since the water year actually only began yesterday.

 

Also, because droughts! LOL!



#146
Front Ranger

Posted 02 October 2018 - 11:59 AM

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Seems like that’s exactly what you’re doing. :lol:


Nah, I didn't bother getting into the actual correlations because I know he won't listen.

Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#147
TT-SEA

Posted 02 October 2018 - 12:00 PM

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Probably because it's based off multiple stations in that area.

 

I know, that doesn't fit with the "SEA has been WAY drier than everywhere else" theory.  ;)

 

I never said SEA was way drier than everywhere else.   

 

But here are some 2017-18 "water year" rainfall departures:

 

SEA  +1.82

 

SEA WFO  +5.24

 

OLM   +2.51

 

BLI  +1.57

 

HQM  +1.55

 

 

I am not seeing a major station up here with that was drier than normal for the water year.



#148
Phil

Posted 02 October 2018 - 12:00 PM

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For example, I can select years with phase-8 forcing in October, and get an inverse correlation for DJF.

jrQMni4.png
wPyWDM6.png
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...pwsdash#history

#149
hawkstwelve

Posted 02 October 2018 - 12:00 PM

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Quite gusty here today. Loving everything about it.

Really hoping for a good windstorm or two this Fall/Winter.
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#150
BLI snowman

Posted 02 October 2018 - 12:00 PM

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Ben Noll@BenNollWeather

After the exceptional eastern early October warmth fades, some chillier conditions are likely, but milder air may be back in time for November. Cold in the Plains, early snows northern tier?

https://mobile.twitt...902542217576448

 

Ben Noll also thinks that 2016-17 should be a very warm winter for the Northwestern states in particular.


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