October 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[MossMan]

I would avoid using any analogs before 1977.

 

Also, stay away from 1957/58, 1958/59, 1968/69, 1969/70, 1972/73, 1990/91, 1991/92, 2002/03, and 2006/07. These all have serious tropical-extratropical disconnects from 2018.

I want 06-07 D**n it!!

[Front Ranger]

Range of possibilities. These are the ones I’m looking at.

 

2014/15

2012/13 (extratropics)

2003/04

1994/95 (iffy)

1987/88

1986/87

1977/78 (old..use w/ caution).

 

2014 is a great match ENSO wise, not great QBO-wise (descending into major -QBO, this year we're ascending out of it), and terrible solar-wise.

 

2012 is a good match for ENSO, ok for QBO, and again not good for solar.

 

2003 is good for ENSO (though following a significant Nino), decent for QBO, and bad for solar.

 

1987 is not good for ENSO (major second year Nino), pretty good for QBO, and bad for solar.

 

1986 is decent for ENSO (but looks like stronger +ENSO at this point), QBO was headed in the opposite direction though similar, and ok for solar.

 

Of those, I probably like 2012-13 the best, followed by 1986-87. And already mentioned I like 1994-95 and 1977-78 better.

[Deweydog]

I remember one year when my boys were younger we had like 2 inches of rain on Halloween and it stopped raining around 4:30 in the afternoon and was delightful and pleasantly warm and totally calm during the evening festivities.

 

I also remember freezing our as$es off on a bone dry Halloween with a brisk east wind.

 

I preferred the rainy day scenario.

My kids are on their own at this point. Let it snow!!!

[MossMan]

I was thinking 14-15 too. Cold shot in Nov and some snow for Washington and Central Oregon then blowtorch the rest of the way. Rats!

End of November 2014 sure did have a nice shot of cold with a few inches of snow going into it up here.

[TT-SEA]

End of November 2014 sure did have a nice shot of cold with a few inches of snow going into it up here.

 

 

That is the snow event that directly resulted in my dog breaking his leg and eventually my car accident which totaled my car!  

[TT-SEA]

End of November 2014 sure did have a nice shot of cold with a few inches of snow going into it up here.

 

 

Here is a picture that I took after that same snow event:

 

[Phil]

2014 is a great match ENSO wise, not great QBO-wise (descending into major -QBO, this year we're ascending out of it), and terrible solar-wise.

 

2012 is a good match for ENSO, ok for QBO, and again not good for solar.

 

2003 is good for ENSO (though following a significant Nino), decent for QBO, and bad for solar.

 

1987 is not good for ENSO (major second year Nino), pretty good for QBO, and bad for solar.

 

1986 is decent for ENSO (but looks like stronger +ENSO at this point), QBO was headed in the opposite direction though similar, and ok for solar.

 

Of those, I probably like 2012-13 the best, followed by 1986-87. And already mentioned I like 1994-95 and 1977-78 better.

Also have to keep in mind the state of the *extratropical* stratosphere since it affects static stability/convection in the tropics, which carries the ENSO signal. Also the meridional extent of the warm pool and extent of off-equator convection/z-cell width.

[Deweydog]

Seems like Michael might be kind of a big deal.

 

Once again, male superiority/rape culture rears its ugly head...

[Front Ranger]

Also have to keep in mind the state of the *extratropical* stratosphere since it affects static stability/convection in the tropics, which carries the ENSO signal. Also the meridional extent of the warm pool and extent of off-equator convection/z-cell width.

 

Sure. I'm just not convinced any of those factors are more significant than general ENSO state, QBO, and solar.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

What do you guys want to bet are the top analogs for this upcoming winter?

1951-52

1968-69

1977-78

1994-95

2006-07

Speaking of 1968-69, one of the analogs to Michael is Gladys in 1968. Like Michael, Gladys made landfall in Florida as a hurricane in October. It formed in a similar area. Gladys tracked a little bit farther east and wasn't able to cross through the Yucatan Channel. Instead it tracked through Western Cuba through mountainous terrain. Probably weaknened it enough for it not to become stronger. Also Gladys formed a little later in the month than Michael so the ocean waters were likely cooler. Track though has similarities as Gladys eventually drifted NE out to sea.

 

[TT-SEA]

I am sensing from my facebook feed tonight that my family and friends in Minnesota are REALLY sick of rain.    I have seen at least 20 posts about it today... and this meme has come up 3 times already.   I know this feeling!   

 

[Phil]

Sure. I'm just not convinced any of those factors are more significant than general ENSO state, QBO, and solar.

Well they’re the conduits through which the ENSO/QBO state is expressed, so I’d argue they’re quite important especially with a weak ENSO this year.

[Jesse]

Katrina was ok because it flushed out the patriarchy that festers in the lower Mississippi.

Seems like it mostly flooded the poor folk.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Most of the leading analogs are pretty boring for Eugene/Springfield.  12-13 for example, looked like it had a brief cool shot at the beginning of January without much excitement, then later in Jan there was a long stretch of fake cold where the temp never made it out of the low-30s because they were stuck in the subsidence inversion fog.

 

Not sure how they look for the rest of the PNW but I would imagine it's better further north.

[El_Nina]

That should soften up the ground before I go hunting over there in a couple weeks!

[Deweydog]

Katrina was ok because it flushed out the patriarchy that festers in the lower Mississippi.

Yet another major hurricane during a GOP presidency. Seems to be pretty disproportionate.

[BLI snowman]

Best case scenario is record warm/dry through the 30th followed by record rainfall on the 31st.

Big rainstorm will be coming on the 1st.

 

You might be out of luck, big guy.

[Dave]

Forecast for the next 7 days looks perfect. Should be great weather on Saturday when the ducks curb stomp the huskies. 

[Deweydog]

Big rainstorm will be coming on the 1st.

 

You might be out of luck, big guy.

You'll be known as the Bellingham guy from Ridgefield who saved Halloween!

[TT-SEA]

Forecast for the next 7 days looks perfect. Should be great weather on Saturday when the ducks curb stomp the huskies. 

 

 

Should be a gorgeous day for the game... going to be fun to watch!  

[El_Nina]

Would be funny to see another historic dry stretch. Luckily its inconsequential here at this point, but not for the valley.

[TT-SEA]

Would be funny to see another historic dry stretch. Luckily its inconsequential here at this point, but not for the valley.

 

 

I have mentioned 1986 a couple times because it was one of the top analogs for this recent troughy period and also had a weak Nino... and what followed was a 23-day dry spell in my area.   Yes... in my area.   23 dry days in a row in October.  Might be close to historic here.  Sort of feels like something similar might be evolving now, but I doubt it lasts that long.

 

Then it rained almost every day in November.     To be expected.

 

December was not bad though...  16 dry days that month.     But 50 degrees and raining on Christmas. 

 

The rest of the winter was decent as well... almost no snow but plenty of dry days and nice stretch of 60+ degree weather in the early February.  

[Phil]

Yet another major hurricane during a GOP presidency. Seems to be pretty disproportionate

Really is amazing.

[El_Nina]

I have mentioned 1986 numerous time because it was one of the top analogs for this recent troughy period and also had a weak Nino... and what followed was a 23-day dry spell in my area. Yes... in my area. 23 dry days in a row in October. Sort of feels like something similar might be evolving now, but I doubt it lasts that long.

 

Then it rained almost every day in November. To be expected.

 

December was not bad though... 16 dry days that month. But 50 degrees and raining on Christmas.

 

The rest of the winter was decent as well... almost no snow but plenty of dry days and nice stretch of 60+ degree weather in the early February.

I don't care what happens this winter as long as the mountains get a normal snowpack. I'm tired of all these lackluster years.

[Front Ranger]

Should be a gorgeous day for the game... going to be fun to watch!

Meanwhile, might get to watch a snow game here in Denver on Sunday.

[Phil]

Ooof..

 

[Deweydog]

Gotst a little dry air getting sucked in. Might keep things a little in check.

[Phil]

Great webcam from Panama City beach.

 

With sound!

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gSBoLOn1VIs&feature=youtu.be

[Esquimalt]

I wonder what the likelihoods are of Michael making landfall as a cat 5.  

[Phil]

I wonder what the likelihoods are of Michael making landfall as a cat 5.

 

Higher than Florence, that’s for sure. I’m half expecting it to, since it landfalls right after diurnal maximum.

 

Probably will be a Cat4, though.

[Deweydog]

Maybe an eyewall replacement will start around landfall. That could help too.

[BLI snowman]

You'll be known as the Bellingham guy from Ridgefield who saved Halloween!

 

Via Blythe.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[Frontal Snowsquall]

I am sensing from my facebook feed tonight that my family and friends in Minnesota are REALLY sick of rain. I have seen at least 20 posts about it today... and this meme has come up 3 times already. I know this feeling!

 

Hopefully they like snow since it's coming soon.

 

[Jesse]

Hopefully they like snow since it's coming soon.

 

Nope, they hate that too.

[TT-SEA]

Nope, they hate that too.

 

Many of them do actually. And they really hate snow in March and April even though March is the snowiest month on average. The snowmobile crowd loves snow though. My wife grew up in a small town with basically two bars and a church... and there are always more snowmobiles than cars in the parking lots of the bars in the winter. The town is New Trier... named by the early settlers there who came from Trier Germany.

[Phil]

Oh my goodness.

 

https://twitter.com/splillo/status/1049895471127384070?s=21

[Omegaraptor]

This high pressure system just keeps upgrading. Portland could see a week of 70s - even the Snoqualmie Valley where TT-SEA is could be seeing 70s next week.

 

According to Wunderground the sun and blowtorching will last up to two weeks.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

What's the longest stretch of 70+ in October in PDX history? I've gotta think EUG has accomplished some decent Oct 70+ stretches, but this is looking historic coming up. Which is good, because it's been a while since we have seen significant warm/dry anomalies here and our rain-coffers are overwhelmed with a torrential .5" since mid-June.

[Phil]

Michael is now a Category 4. Flight level winds of 136kts.

 

Uh oh.