October 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Phil]

Pressure is 941mb..and the recon plane missed the center somewhat, so pressure could be lower.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This storm is turning into a monster. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Those are some pretty major early season cold snaps going into the NE late next week and beyond. Sub-516 thickness into northern New England. 

[Phil]

Worth noting that much of Panama City Beach is only a few feet above sea level. Surge is gonna swamp that place in a heartbeat.

[Phil]

Those are some pretty major early season cold snaps going into the NE late next week and beyond. Sub-516 thickness into northern New England.

This upcoming pattern reminds me a lot of 2014 at this time. The similarities are uncanny in the longitudinal wave structure.

 

FWIW, that year also blowtorched heavily here during the month of September..so the progression is similar even if the timing is a few weeks off.

 

Unfortunately, 2014/15 was one of the most +NAO winters on record. Hopefully we avoid that this year.

[TT-SEA]

This high pressure system just keeps upgrading. Portland could see a week of 70s - even the Snoqualmie Valley where TT-SEA is could be seeing 70s next week.

 

According to Wunderground the sun and blowtorching will last up to two weeks.

 

 

It will be easy to reach the low 70s here if we have any downsloping east wind.    We can easily be the warmest spot in the state with this set-up from late fall through early spring... particularly when inversions set in elsewhere on both sides of the mountains.  

[Jesse]

This upcoming pattern reminds me a lot of 2014 at this time. The similarities are uncanny in the longitudinal wave structure.

 

FWIW, that year also blowtorched heavily here during the month of September..so the progression is similar even if the timing is a few weeks off.

 

Unfortunately, 2014/15 was one of the most +NAO winters on record. Hopefully we avoid that this year.

 

You are really going all in with the shitty analogs lately.

 

Could mean we get walloped at some point. Payback for the three week arctic blast last January. 

[TT-SEA]

You are really going all in with the shitty analogs lately.

 

Could mean we get walloped at some point. Payback for the three week arctic blast last January.

October 2014 was wet and warm... this month has been wet and cold so far and dry and warm coming up. Nothing like Octobr 2014.

 

But Phil is probably discussing a much larger scale.

[Jesse]

October 2014 was wet and warm... this month has been wet and cold so far and dry and warm coming up. Nothing like Octobr 2014.

But Phil is probably discussing a much larger scale.

2014 was also the warmest September on record down here. While this year was the averagest.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Hopefully once this death ridge pattern breaks Rob will show back up and we can have a proper night shift.

[ShawniganLake]

Michael is up to 140 mph

[Geos]

Oh my goodness.

 

https://twitter.com/splillo/status/1049895471127384070?s=21

 

Crazy intensification overnight. 926 mb this morning.

 

https://twitter.com/splillo

[TT-SEA]

Terrible. Just saw a story about PCB being the best spot to own a vacation rental. Most of those rentals will be wiped out today. Hopefully everyone is out. They had so little advanced warning.

[Deweydog]

Terrible. Just saw a story about PCB being the best spot to own a vacation rental. Most of those rentals will be wiped out today. Hopefully everyone is out. They had so little advanced warning.

I think of all those warm weather vacations being cut short and I can't help but be overcome with emotions. Prayers for those people's itineraries coming from Southwest Washington!

[TT-SEA]

I think of all those warm weather vacations being cut short and I can't help but be overcome with emotions. Prayers for those people's itineraries coming from Southwest Washington!

It would be much worse in February when those vacationers need the break so badly.

 

I would never vacation there in the winter though. Not guaranteed warm weather. Hell... they can have frost and snow. Bad return on your vacation money investment!

[Deweydog]

That eye has a cat5 look to it.

[TT-SEA]

I blame Jesse for this hurricane.   The deep western trough that has been plaguing us for days is also responsible for pulling this hurricane straight north towards the Florida panhandle.   Who was cheering for this evil trough??    Not me!  

[Jesse]

Low of 44 this morning with some fog in spots.

[Jesse]

Some pretty impressive satellite views of this storm.

 

I also saw that Jim Cantore has been banned from a few counties in the Florida panhandle.

[Geos]

Some pretty impressive satellite views of this storm.

 

I also saw that Jim Cantore has been banned from a few counties in the Florida panhandle.

 

What the...

[Jesse]

What the...

As a joke...since when he shows up strong storms tend to follow.

[Deweydog]

80 today?

[Geos]

Sam Lillo Retweeted

Ryan Hanrahan‏Verified account @ryanhanrahan 5m5 minutes ago

More

Hurricane Hunters find Michael's pressure down to 929mb! If this holds it will be the 8th strongest hurricane to make landfall in the US since 1851. #nbcct

 

 

Getting close now.

 

 

Up to 145 mph. Reading here and there, that it could approach Cat 5 before landfall.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

That hurricane is a beast. Like Mr Dog said looks like a cat 5.

[Jesse]

80 today?

Never looked possible today. We are still in a relatively cool airmass. Some runs have shown 850s up to +18 with a favorable ridge position for downslope late in the weekend or early next week, though.

[Deweydog]

Never looked possible today. We are still in a relatively cool airmass. Some runs have shown 850s up to +18 with a favorable ridge position for downslope late in the weekend or early next week, though.

75 at best (worst).

[Jesse]

The eyewall definitely looks more compact and well defined in the last few satellite images.

[Blizzard777]

Amazing howling of wind on some of those webcams!

 

45* out with a very light foggy haze this morning

[Jesse]

75 at best.

Most likely. Outside shot things line up just right, but the models have been pushing back the warmest airmass. Originally it was being shown for the weekend.

 

This time of year even a few days can make a bit of a difference.

[Geos]

Solid clouds here with some light mist. 50*

[Blizzard777]

https://livestormchasing.com/map

 

These guys are crazy but loving the feed

[Deweydog]

Most likely. Outside shot things line up just right, but the models have been pushing back the warmest airmass. Originally it was being shown for the weekend.

 

This time of year even a few days can make a bit of a difference.

It was never a possibility this weekend. There's no precedence for it this late with 500-1000mb thicknesses in the low 560's. By this weekend you almost have to have 570+ with a narrow corridor of mixing and no gap influence. We're about a week away from downslope being taken over by southerly flow as our best path to upsettedness.

[Deweydog]

Looks like PC should end up on the west side of landfall. Bad, but not worst-case.

[Jesse]

It was never a possibility this weekend. There's no precedence for it this late with 500-1000mb thicknesses in the low 560's. By this weekend you almost have to have 570+ with a narrow corridor of mixing and no gap influence. We're about a week away from downslope being taken over by southerly flow as our best path to upsettedness.

Earlier runs had thicknesses around 570dm over the weekend. Which prompted my “outside shot” comment. But that has since been pushed back.

 

06z now shows 500-100mb thicknesses of 571dm next Tuesday.

[Geos]

Looks like PC should end up on the west side of landfall. Bad, but not worst-case.

 

Gonna be close for PC. Looks like Mexico Beach and Tyndall AFB in the direct line.

[Deweydog]

Earlier runs had thicknesses around 570dm over the weekend. But that has since been pushed back.

 

06z now shows 500-100mb thicknesses of 571dm next Tuesday.

Nah, the warmest GFS runs had mid 560's over the weekend, particularly Sunday, while most models/runs had them in the 562-564 range.

 

Definitely a nice uptick next week but a decent subsidence inversion will be taking hold at that point.

[Jesse]

Nah, the warmest GFS runs had mid 560's over the weekend, particularly Sunday, while most models/runs had them in the 562-564 range.

 

Definitely a nice uptick next week but a decent subsidence inversion will be taking hold at that point.

I was certain the 18z last Sunday had the following Sunday closer to 570...maybe 568-69. Should have taken a screenshot.

 

But yeah, it will probably be too little too late once we move later into next week. I can’t think of a lot of examples where a slowly strengthening ridge gradually moving eastward leads to 80 in mid-October. Usually it’s going to be a push near the beginning or end of the pattern, as things transition.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

 

45]

Sam Lillo Retweeted

45]

Ryan Hanrahan‏Verified account @ryanhanrahan 5m5 minutes ago

 

 

More

 

Hurricane Hunters find Michael's pressure down to 929mb! If this holds it will be the 8th strongest hurricane to make landfall in the US since 1851. #nbcct

 

 

Getting close now.

 

 

Up to 145 mph. Reading here and there, that it could approach Cat 5 before landfall.

Michael now down to 919mb, this is unreal!

[Deweydog]

I was certain the 18z last Sunday had the following Sunday closer to 570...maybe 568-69. Should have taken a screenshot.

 

But yeah, it will probably be too little too late once we move later into next week. I can’t think of a lot of examples where a slowly strengthening ridge gradually moving eastward leads to 80 in mid-October. Usually it’s going to be a push near the beginning or end of the pattern, as things transition.

18z GFS on 10-7 was 564-565dm at 174 hours (Sunday afternoon).