[Jesse]

Wow.

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[TigerWoodsLibido]

Wow.

5825DBBF-92CE-4B0B-98FB-1B3CA9E767C6.png

Shocker

[MossMan]

Wow.

5825DBBF-92CE-4B0B-98FB-1B3CA9E767C6.png

El Niño kicking in!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

El Niño kicking in!

 

Given we are heading toward a moderate Nino it would be a good sign we don't shoot our load to early.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Given we are heading toward a moderate Nino it would be a good sign we don't shoot our load to early.

 

As long as there is a legit load to shoot in the first place.  There have been some years where serious Cialis was needed like 91-92, 02-03 for example.

[BLI snowman]

As long as there is a legit load to shoot in the first place.  There have been some years where serious Cialis was needed like 91-92, 02-03 for example.

 

Coldest weather of the season is just a couple weeks away if we follow those models.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Coldest weather of the season is just a couple weeks away if we follow those models.

 

And I feel like I remember those not being impressive as a kid so I'm reluctant to even consider them.

 

in 1991, EUG didn't have a high below 49 until Nov 22. It was a frigid 37, then was back to 55 the next day.

 

in 2002, EUG didn't have a high below 50 til Nov 25, they got down to 44 for a high over the next 2 days, then went back to 50s and 60s, and their coldest high that winter was 37, on 2 days.  No other days had highs below 40. Also, IIRC (I think Andrew can back me up on this) thicknesses never dropped below 534 in the central and south valley at all.

 

So, there wasn't a load to shoot here.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

And I feel like I remember those not being impressive as a kid so I'm reluctant to even consider them.

 

in 1991, EUG didn't have a high below 49 until Nov 22. It was a frigid 37, then was back to 55 the next day.

 

in 2002, EUG didn't have a high below 50 til Nov 25, they got down to 44 for a high over the next 2 days, then went back to 50s and 60s, and their coldest high that winter was 37, on 2 days.  No other days had highs below 40

 

Eugene hit 17 on 10/31/02

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Eugene hit 17 on 10/31/02

 

And had a high of 58, so that still doesn't seem very impressive.  I guess I can expect one night to drop into the teens then near 60 later that afternoon? I also venture Springfield didn't drop below 20 (it's common to see 20s at night in the inversion here with fake cold).

[SilverFallsAndrew]

And had a high of 58, so that still doesn't seem very impressive.  I guess I can expect one night to drop into the teens then near 60 later that afternoon? I also venture Springfield didn't drop below 20 (it's common to see 20s at night in the inversion here with fake cold).

 

It wasn't fake cold. It was one of the great October cold waves on record. Oregon's all-time record low for October was set with that. But it was October and with full sunshine...It hit the upper 50s after widespread upper teens-mid 20 lows. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

October 2002, what a dry month!

 

https://climate.usu....:ghcn&sidebar=0

[SilverFallsAndrew]

November 1952 was kind of incredible. Average low of 23.1 at Silver Falls and lows in the teens the last 9 days of the month. Eugene had an average low of 29 and the last 7 days of the month had lows in the teens. 

 

https://climate.usu....:ghcn&sidebar=0

 

https://climate.usu....:ghcn&sidebar=0

[TigerWoodsLibido]

November 1952 was kind of incredible. Average low of 23.1 at Silver Falls and lows in the teens the last 9 days of the month. Eugene had an average low of 29 and the last 7 days of the month had lows in the teens. 

 

https://climate.usu....:ghcn&sidebar=0

 

https://climate.usu....:ghcn&sidebar=0

 

At the airport, I doubt in Springfield.  And I don't even consider October events because as you say, it's too early for high temps to factor in and sun angles are too high as well, north of the 45th it might be different, I'm not sure. I don't even remember this as a kid and I remember pretty much all of our notable events, including dry blasts.

 

Also, the other one, 1991, didn't have anything even as notable as a couple teens at the airport (which happen under fake cold as well as this type of early "Arctic" event).

[SilverFallsAndrew]

At the airport, I doubt in Springfield.  And I don't even consider October events because as you say, it's too early for high temps to factor in and sun angles are too high as well, north of the 45th it might be different, I'm not sure. I don't even remember this as a kid and I remember pretty much all of our notable events, including dry blasts.

 

Also, the other one, 1991, didn't have anything even as notable as a couple teens at the airport (which happen under fake cold as well).

 

Well teens don't happen with fake cold in October. But yeah, in general no chance of real winter weather in October. 

[High Desert Mat!]

What about Bob.

[High Desert Mat!]

It's in the beginning when he's in Richard Dreyfus' office.

[Geos]

Pea soup fog again this morning. Seems to be a thinner cloud deck this time around. 

[TT-SEA]

Pea soup fog again this morning. Seems to be a thinner cloud deck this time around. 

 

 

Looks quite shallow...

 

[Jginmartini]

Pea soup fog again this morning. Seems to be a thinner cloud deck this time around.

39* and blue sky with some very light haze almost like yesterday. Yesterday we lost the sun around 9am. See if today follows suit.
Natural gas crisis over....garbage trucks back in service !

[TT-SEA]

39* and blue sky with some very light haze almost like yesterday. Yesterday we lost the sun around 9am. See if today follows suit.
Natural gas crisis over....garbage trucks back in service !

 

 

Will not be a repeat of yesterday. 

[Jginmartini]

Outrageous.

This is completely nuts and at the same time just an amazing force of energy! How does local wildlife survive this?

[Geos]

This is completely nuts and at the same time just an amazing force of energy! How does local wildlife survive this?

 

That video is really crazy. Looks like a giant tornado went through there. So sad. 

Another video of the destruction. 

https://www.washingt...m=.5d3f5b828f8d

 

I had a cousin who lived 2 blocks from the Gulf on the east side of PC, but he evacuated to central Alabama. Doubt he has much to go back to now. 

[Geos]

Cleared up already. Low of 42 this morning. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Low of 37 this morning. 59/36 yesterday.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Good lord...

 

[TT-SEA]

Good lord...

 

 

 

 

October perfection.   Enjoy it.    You will have plenty time for darkness and rain coming up.  

[Esquimalt]

Have we considered 1978-1979 as an analogue?  Relatively similar ENSO and NAO, an an 8/9 year.  However, we were approaching into a solar maximum while this year we're in a solar minimum.  Interesting.  

[BLI snowman]

The longer summer is drawn out with the drought the worse next spring is going to be. An April like 1937 or 1945 is looking likely. 

[Jesse]

Wonder what the late season record for consecutive highs in the 70s is.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wonder what the late season record for consecutive highs in the 70s is.

 

I guess we will see how far into November we make it!

[TT-SEA]

Beautiful day... some more fall color showing up now.

 

[BLI snowman]

Wonder what the late season record for consecutive highs in the 70s is.

 

October 11-19, 1952 stands out. October 20-26, 1965 as well.

[WSmet]

Today is the 56 year anniversary of the Columbus Day Storm 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

October 11-19, 1952 stands out. October 20-26, 1965 as well.

 

October 1952 was something else...

[TT-SEA]

October 1952 was something else...

 

 

Check out October 1987.

 

Rained here in the Snoqualmie Valley on just 3 days that month... and less than an inch total.   

[BLI snowman]

October 1952 was something else...

 

Really bad times during that 1952-53 stretch. A hot and extremely dry summer and fall, a rainy/mild winter, and then a drippy/chilly spring. Worst of all worlds. Was our payback for 4 consecutive great winters.

[TT-SEA]

And in October 1986... it did not rain here at all for the first 23 days of the month.   

[Jesse]

October 11-19, 1952 stands out. October 20-26, 1965 as well.

The 1952 stretch could be threatened. Same start date as this year, but decent chance this one goes longer.

[BLI snowman]

The 1952 stretch could be threatened. Same start date as this year, but decent chance this one goes longer.

 

Going to be getting to the point where we can easily stay in the 67-69 range even with a pretty warm upper level airmass. Wouldn't take much.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Salem was 80+ the first 7 days of October 1952. 71.3 was the average high for the month.

 

October 1987 was dry and very warm too. Average high of 72.4 at SLE.

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS ensemble mean... precipitation anomaly through 384 hours.    I am certain will be paying for this in November.   But I would rather have a beautiful October.

 

[MossMan]

Today is the 56 year anniversary of the Columbus Day Storm

That would have been amazing to experience. My parents only have very vague memories of it since they were so young still.

[Jesse]

Going to be getting to the point where we can easily stay in the 67-69 range even with a pretty warm upper level airmass. Wouldn't take much.

True. Especially considering it looks to be a pretty stagnant pattern following this weekend’s east wind burst.

Still, probably as good a chance as you’ll see for a week+ long stretch this late, if things work out (PDX is good at making this sort of thing work out).

[jakeinthevalley]

And in October 1986... it did not rain here at all for the first 23 days of the month.   

Yep, remember it well. My first year of college and we were outside for Fall baseball every day. Had to water the infield almost every day.

[Jesse]

Yep, remember it well. My first year of college and we were outside for Fall baseball every day. Had to water the infield almost every day.

First #fallball reference here in a while.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looking at historical  October Precip for Salem. One thing that stands out. Very dry Octobers are not uncommon. In 125 years of records there have been 16 Octobers at SLE with under 1" of precip and two with no precip. Even if SLE picks up no more rain this month it would only be the 6th driest October (0.34" has been recorded so far this month at SLE.). Here are the years with under 1" of precip in October at SLE. A couple stand out as they have already been mentioned as possible analogs (2006-07). Overall a pretty big mixed bag as far as the following winters though if you go back to 1964-present 7 of the 9 following winters at least had one good event.

 

1895

1907

1911

1917

1925

1936

1952

1964

1972

1978

1987

1988

2002

2006

2008

2013

 

Also October in the 2010's has generally had above average precip at SLE including October 2016 which was the wettest October on record with 11.25". Last year was also well above average with over 5" of rain.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

One other note. Historically a very dry October is a very strong signal for a dry November too.

 

13 of the 16 Novembers had BELOW average precipitation. In fact 4 of these years are in the top 10 driest Novembers on record.

 

1936 (1)

1907 (7)

1952 (8)

1911 (9)

 

The only three exceptions where precip was above average the following November were.

1964

1988

2006* 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Monmouth is still at less than .1" for the month, had a bit of drizzle but that's it. If they don't get any more precip then I have to believe it's like 3rd or 4th driest. Springfield will also be in the top 10 if it stays dry through Halloween.

 

I like a lot of those analogs though. Only a few duds.

[Jesse]

Ridging FINALLY getting ready to build in again at hour 144 on the Euro.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Monmouth is still at less than .1" for the month, had a bit of drizzle but that's it. If they don't get any more precip then I have to believe it's like 3rd or 4th driest. Springfield will also be in the top 10 if it stays dry through Halloween.

 

I like a lot of those analogs though. Only a few duds.

 

If we look at 1964-present. 5 of those 9 had major arctic outbreaks in December.