

October 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest
#1952
Posted 11 October 2018 - 10:30 PM
Springfield, Oregon cold season 18-19 Stats:
Coldest high: 34 (Feb 7)
Coldest low: 22 (Dec 6 & 7)
Days with below freezing temps: 32
Total snowfall: 0.2"
Last accumulating snowfall (grass): February 5, 2019
Last accumulating snowfall (roads): February 22, 2018
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 1990
Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0
Personal Stats:
Last accumulating snowfall (grass): February 5, 2019
Last accumulating snowfall (roads): March 6, 2017
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 2008
Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 0.7"
My Twitter @353jerseys4hope
#1954
Posted 11 October 2018 - 10:45 PM
El Niño kicking in!
Given we are heading toward a moderate Nino it would be a good sign we don't shoot our load to early.
- TigerWoodsLibido likes this
Snowfall
2018-19: 30.9"
2017-18: 30.3"
2016-17: 49.2"
2015-16: 11.75"
2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"
It's always sunny at Winters Hill!
#1955
Posted 11 October 2018 - 10:49 PM
Given we are heading toward a moderate Nino it would be a good sign we don't shoot our load to early.
As long as there is a legit load to shoot in the first place. There have been some years where serious Cialis was needed like 91-92, 02-03 for example.
Springfield, Oregon cold season 18-19 Stats:
Coldest high: 34 (Feb 7)
Coldest low: 22 (Dec 6 & 7)
Days with below freezing temps: 32
Total snowfall: 0.2"
Last accumulating snowfall (grass): February 5, 2019
Last accumulating snowfall (roads): February 22, 2018
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 1990
Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0
Personal Stats:
Last accumulating snowfall (grass): February 5, 2019
Last accumulating snowfall (roads): March 6, 2017
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 2008
Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 0.7"
My Twitter @353jerseys4hope
#1956
Posted 11 October 2018 - 11:04 PM
As long as there is a legit load to shoot in the first place. There have been some years where serious Cialis was needed like 91-92, 02-03 for example.
Coldest weather of the season is just a couple weeks away if we follow those models.
#1957
Posted 11 October 2018 - 11:12 PM
Coldest weather of the season is just a couple weeks away if we follow those models.
And I feel like I remember those not being impressive as a kid so I'm reluctant to even consider them.
in 1991, EUG didn't have a high below 49 until Nov 22. It was a frigid 37, then was back to 55 the next day.
in 2002, EUG didn't have a high below 50 til Nov 25, they got down to 44 for a high over the next 2 days, then went back to 50s and 60s, and their coldest high that winter was 37, on 2 days. No other days had highs below 40. Also, IIRC (I think Andrew can back me up on this) thicknesses never dropped below 534 in the central and south valley at all.
So, there wasn't a load to shoot here.
Springfield, Oregon cold season 18-19 Stats:
Coldest high: 34 (Feb 7)
Coldest low: 22 (Dec 6 & 7)
Days with below freezing temps: 32
Total snowfall: 0.2"
Last accumulating snowfall (grass): February 5, 2019
Last accumulating snowfall (roads): February 22, 2018
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 1990
Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0
Personal Stats:
Last accumulating snowfall (grass): February 5, 2019
Last accumulating snowfall (roads): March 6, 2017
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 2008
Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 0.7"
My Twitter @353jerseys4hope
#1958
Posted 11 October 2018 - 11:23 PM
And I feel like I remember those not being impressive as a kid so I'm reluctant to even consider them.
in 1991, EUG didn't have a high below 49 until Nov 22. It was a frigid 37, then was back to 55 the next day.
in 2002, EUG didn't have a high below 50 til Nov 25, they got down to 44 for a high over the next 2 days, then went back to 50s and 60s, and their coldest high that winter was 37, on 2 days. No other days had highs below 40
Eugene hit 17 on 10/31/02
Snowfall
2018-19: 30.9"
2017-18: 30.3"
2016-17: 49.2"
2015-16: 11.75"
2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"
It's always sunny at Winters Hill!
#1959
Posted 11 October 2018 - 11:27 PM
Eugene hit 17 on 10/31/02
And had a high of 58, so that still doesn't seem very impressive. I guess I can expect one night to drop into the teens then near 60 later that afternoon? I also venture Springfield didn't drop below 20 (it's common to see 20s at night in the inversion here with fake cold).
Springfield, Oregon cold season 18-19 Stats:
Coldest high: 34 (Feb 7)
Coldest low: 22 (Dec 6 & 7)
Days with below freezing temps: 32
Total snowfall: 0.2"
Last accumulating snowfall (grass): February 5, 2019
Last accumulating snowfall (roads): February 22, 2018
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 1990
Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0
Personal Stats:
Last accumulating snowfall (grass): February 5, 2019
Last accumulating snowfall (roads): March 6, 2017
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 2008
Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 0.7"
My Twitter @353jerseys4hope
#1960
Posted 11 October 2018 - 11:38 PM
And had a high of 58, so that still doesn't seem very impressive. I guess I can expect one night to drop into the teens then near 60 later that afternoon? I also venture Springfield didn't drop below 20 (it's common to see 20s at night in the inversion here with fake cold).
It wasn't fake cold. It was one of the great October cold waves on record. Oregon's all-time record low for October was set with that. But it was October and with full sunshine...It hit the upper 50s after widespread upper teens-mid 20 lows.
Snowfall
2018-19: 30.9"
2017-18: 30.3"
2016-17: 49.2"
2015-16: 11.75"
2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"
It's always sunny at Winters Hill!
#1961
Posted 11 October 2018 - 11:43 PM
Snowfall
2018-19: 30.9"
2017-18: 30.3"
2016-17: 49.2"
2015-16: 11.75"
2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"
It's always sunny at Winters Hill!
#1962
Posted 11 October 2018 - 11:46 PM
November 1952 was kind of incredible. Average low of 23.1 at Silver Falls and lows in the teens the last 9 days of the month. Eugene had an average low of 29 and the last 7 days of the month had lows in the teens.
https://climate.usu....:ghcn&sidebar=0
https://climate.usu....:ghcn&sidebar=0
Snowfall
2018-19: 30.9"
2017-18: 30.3"
2016-17: 49.2"
2015-16: 11.75"
2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"
It's always sunny at Winters Hill!
#1963
Posted 11 October 2018 - 11:59 PM
November 1952 was kind of incredible. Average low of 23.1 at Silver Falls and lows in the teens the last 9 days of the month. Eugene had an average low of 29 and the last 7 days of the month had lows in the teens.
https://climate.usu....:ghcn&sidebar=0
At the airport, I doubt in Springfield. And I don't even consider October events because as you say, it's too early for high temps to factor in and sun angles are too high as well, north of the 45th it might be different, I'm not sure. I don't even remember this as a kid and I remember pretty much all of our notable events, including dry blasts.
Also, the other one, 1991, didn't have anything even as notable as a couple teens at the airport (which happen under fake cold as well as this type of early "Arctic" event).
Springfield, Oregon cold season 18-19 Stats:
Coldest high: 34 (Feb 7)
Coldest low: 22 (Dec 6 & 7)
Days with below freezing temps: 32
Total snowfall: 0.2"
Last accumulating snowfall (grass): February 5, 2019
Last accumulating snowfall (roads): February 22, 2018
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 1990
Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0
Personal Stats:
Last accumulating snowfall (grass): February 5, 2019
Last accumulating snowfall (roads): March 6, 2017
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 2008
Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 0.7"
My Twitter @353jerseys4hope
#1964
Posted 12 October 2018 - 12:00 AM
At the airport, I doubt in Springfield. And I don't even consider October events because as you say, it's too early for high temps to factor in and sun angles are too high as well, north of the 45th it might be different, I'm not sure. I don't even remember this as a kid and I remember pretty much all of our notable events, including dry blasts.
Also, the other one, 1991, didn't have anything even as notable as a couple teens at the airport (which happen under fake cold as well).
Well teens don't happen with fake cold in October. But yeah, in general no chance of real winter weather in October.
Snowfall
2018-19: 30.9"
2017-18: 30.3"
2016-17: 49.2"
2015-16: 11.75"
2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"
It's always sunny at Winters Hill!
#1967
Posted 12 October 2018 - 06:23 AM
Pea soup fog again this morning. Seems to be a thinner cloud deck this time around.
Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 41.76", 2019: 6.36", 2/14
2018-2019 winter snowfall total:
27.1", 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"
Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2
https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history
#1968
Posted 12 October 2018 - 06:35 AM
Pea soup fog again this morning. Seems to be a thinner cloud deck this time around.
Looks quite shallow...
#1969
Posted 12 October 2018 - 06:39 AM
Pea soup fog again this morning. Seems to be a thinner cloud deck this time around.
39* and blue sky with some very light haze almost like yesterday. Yesterday we lost the sun around 9am. See if today follows suit.
Natural gas crisis over....garbage trucks back in service !
- Geos likes this
#1970
Posted 12 October 2018 - 06:44 AM
39* and blue sky with some very light haze almost like yesterday. Yesterday we lost the sun around 9am. See if today follows suit.
Natural gas crisis over....garbage trucks back in service !
Will not be a repeat of yesterday.
- Jginmartini likes this
#1971
Posted 12 October 2018 - 06:48 AM
Outrageous.
This is completely nuts and at the same time just an amazing force of energy! How does local wildlife survive this?
- Phil and Chris like this
#1972
Posted 12 October 2018 - 07:50 AM
This is completely nuts and at the same time just an amazing force of energy! How does local wildlife survive this?
That video is really crazy. Looks like a giant tornado went through there. So sad.
Another video of the destruction.
https://www.washingt...m=.5d3f5b828f8d
I had a cousin who lived 2 blocks from the Gulf on the east side of PC, but he evacuated to central Alabama. Doubt he has much to go back to now.
- Chris and Jginmartini like this
Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 41.76", 2019: 6.36", 2/14
2018-2019 winter snowfall total:
27.1", 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"
Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2
https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history
#1973
Posted 12 October 2018 - 08:11 AM
Cleared up already. Low of 42 this morning.
Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 41.76", 2019: 6.36", 2/14
2018-2019 winter snowfall total:
27.1", 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"
Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2
https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history
#1974
Posted 12 October 2018 - 08:15 AM
Low of 37 this morning. 59/36 yesterday.
Snowfall
2018-19: 30.9"
2017-18: 30.3"
2016-17: 49.2"
2015-16: 11.75"
2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"
It's always sunny at Winters Hill!
#1975
Posted 12 October 2018 - 08:40 AM
Good lord...
Snowfall
2018-19: 30.9"
2017-18: 30.3"
2016-17: 49.2"
2015-16: 11.75"
2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"
It's always sunny at Winters Hill!
#1976
Posted 12 October 2018 - 08:46 AM
Good lord...
October perfection. Enjoy it. You will have plenty time for darkness and rain coming up.
- Timmy and dolt like this
#1977
Posted 12 October 2018 - 08:46 AM
Have we considered 1978-1979 as an analogue? Relatively similar ENSO and NAO, an an 8/9 year. However, we were approaching into a solar maximum while this year we're in a solar minimum. Interesting.
#1978
Posted 12 October 2018 - 08:59 AM
The longer summer is drawn out with the drought the worse next spring is going to be. An April like 1937 or 1945 is looking likely.
#1979
Posted 12 October 2018 - 09:26 AM
#1980
Posted 12 October 2018 - 09:28 AM
Wonder what the late season record for consecutive highs in the 70s is.
I guess we will see how far into November we make it!
Snowfall
2018-19: 30.9"
2017-18: 30.3"
2016-17: 49.2"
2015-16: 11.75"
2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"
It's always sunny at Winters Hill!
#1981
Posted 12 October 2018 - 09:38 AM
Beautiful day... some more fall color showing up now.
- Jginmartini likes this
#1982
Posted 12 October 2018 - 09:38 AM
Wonder what the late season record for consecutive highs in the 70s is.
October 11-19, 1952 stands out. October 20-26, 1965 as well.
- Jesse likes this
#1984
Posted 12 October 2018 - 09:42 AM
October 11-19, 1952 stands out. October 20-26, 1965 as well.
October 1952 was something else...
Snowfall
2018-19: 30.9"
2017-18: 30.3"
2016-17: 49.2"
2015-16: 11.75"
2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"
It's always sunny at Winters Hill!
#1985
Posted 12 October 2018 - 09:49 AM
October 1952 was something else...
Check out October 1987.
Rained here in the Snoqualmie Valley on just 3 days that month... and less than an inch total.
#1986
Posted 12 October 2018 - 09:50 AM
October 1952 was something else...
Really bad times during that 1952-53 stretch. A hot and extremely dry summer and fall, a rainy/mild winter, and then a drippy/chilly spring. Worst of all worlds. Was our payback for 4 consecutive great winters.
#1987
Posted 12 October 2018 - 09:50 AM
And in October 1986... it did not rain here at all for the first 23 days of the month.
#1988
Posted 12 October 2018 - 09:52 AM
October 11-19, 1952 stands out. October 20-26, 1965 as well.
The 1952 stretch could be threatened. Same start date as this year, but decent chance this one goes longer.
#1989
Posted 12 October 2018 - 09:59 AM
The 1952 stretch could be threatened. Same start date as this year, but decent chance this one goes longer.
Going to be getting to the point where we can easily stay in the 67-69 range even with a pretty warm upper level airmass. Wouldn't take much.
#1990
Posted 12 October 2018 - 09:59 AM
Salem was 80+ the first 7 days of October 1952. 71.3 was the average high for the month.
October 1987 was dry and very warm too. Average high of 72.4 at SLE.
Snowfall
2018-19: 30.9"
2017-18: 30.3"
2016-17: 49.2"
2015-16: 11.75"
2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"
It's always sunny at Winters Hill!
#1991
Posted 12 October 2018 - 10:00 AM
12Z GFS ensemble mean... precipitation anomaly through 384 hours. I am certain will be paying for this in November. But I would rather have a beautiful October.
#1992
Posted 12 October 2018 - 10:02 AM
That would have been amazing to experience. My parents only have very vague memories of it since they were so young still.Today is the 56 year anniversary of the Columbus Day Storm
#1993
Posted 12 October 2018 - 10:02 AM
Going to be getting to the point where we can easily stay in the 67-69 range even with a pretty warm upper level airmass. Wouldn't take much.
True. Especially considering it looks to be a pretty stagnant pattern following this weekend’s east wind burst.
Still, probably as good a chance as you’ll see for a week+ long stretch this late, if things work out (PDX is good at making this sort of thing work out).
#1994
Posted 12 October 2018 - 10:08 AM
And in October 1986... it did not rain here at all for the first 23 days of the month.
Yep, remember it well. My first year of college and we were outside for Fall baseball every day. Had to water the infield almost every day.
#1995
Posted 12 October 2018 - 10:09 AM
Yep, remember it well. My first year of college and we were outside for Fall baseball every day. Had to water the infield almost every day.
First #fallball reference here in a while.
#1996
Posted 12 October 2018 - 10:09 AM
Looking at historical October Precip for Salem. One thing that stands out. Very dry Octobers are not uncommon. In 125 years of records there have been 16 Octobers at SLE with under 1" of precip and two with no precip. Even if SLE picks up no more rain this month it would only be the 6th driest October (0.34" has been recorded so far this month at SLE.). Here are the years with under 1" of precip in October at SLE. A couple stand out as they have already been mentioned as possible analogs (2006-07). Overall a pretty big mixed bag as far as the following winters though if you go back to 1964-present 7 of the 9 following winters at least had one good event.
1895
1907
1911
1917
1925
1936
1952
1964
1972
1978
1987
1988
2002
2006
2008
2013
Also October in the 2010's has generally had above average precip at SLE including October 2016 which was the wettest October on record with 11.25". Last year was also well above average with over 5" of rain.
- Phil likes this
Snowfall
2018-19: 30.9"
2017-18: 30.3"
2016-17: 49.2"
2015-16: 11.75"
2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"
It's always sunny at Winters Hill!
#1997
Posted 12 October 2018 - 10:21 AM
One other note. Historically a very dry October is a very strong signal for a dry November too.
13 of the 16 Novembers had BELOW average precipitation. In fact 4 of these years are in the top 10 driest Novembers on record.
1936 (1)
1907 (7)
1952 (8)
1911 (9)
The only three exceptions where precip was above average the following November were.
1964
1988
2006*
- Phil likes this
Snowfall
2018-19: 30.9"
2017-18: 30.3"
2016-17: 49.2"
2015-16: 11.75"
2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"
It's always sunny at Winters Hill!
#1998
Posted 12 October 2018 - 10:27 AM
Monmouth is still at less than .1" for the month, had a bit of drizzle but that's it. If they don't get any more precip then I have to believe it's like 3rd or 4th driest. Springfield will also be in the top 10 if it stays dry through Halloween.
I like a lot of those analogs though. Only a few duds.
Springfield, Oregon cold season 18-19 Stats:
Coldest high: 34 (Feb 7)
Coldest low: 22 (Dec 6 & 7)
Days with below freezing temps: 32
Total snowfall: 0.2"
Last accumulating snowfall (grass): February 5, 2019
Last accumulating snowfall (roads): February 22, 2018
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 1990
Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0
Personal Stats:
Last accumulating snowfall (grass): February 5, 2019
Last accumulating snowfall (roads): March 6, 2017
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 2008
Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 0.7"
My Twitter @353jerseys4hope
#1999
Posted 12 October 2018 - 10:29 AM
- TT-SEA likes this
#2000
Posted 12 October 2018 - 10:34 AM
Monmouth is still at less than .1" for the month, had a bit of drizzle but that's it. If they don't get any more precip then I have to believe it's like 3rd or 4th driest. Springfield will also be in the top 10 if it stays dry through Halloween.
I like a lot of those analogs though. Only a few duds.
If we look at 1964-present. 5 of those 9 had major arctic outbreaks in December.
- Phil and TigerWoodsLibido like this
Snowfall
2018-19: 30.9"
2017-18: 30.3"
2016-17: 49.2"
2015-16: 11.75"
2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"
It's always sunny at Winters Hill!