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October 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest


Tyler Mode

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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Is there much evidence that we’ve seen an increase in major landfalling hurricanes in the US? Something like 5 of the 7 strongest storms to hit Florida were pre 1960.

Inconvenient facts.

 

For those pushing an agenda, the end justifies the means. Doesn't matter if there's no scientific support, as long as the event brings attention to the cause.

A forum for the end of the world.

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12Z GFS is close to bring us some rain from day 10 onward but it never quite gets here... basically no rain for the next 17 days per that run except a little along the NW WA coast and Vancouver Island.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Inconvenient facts.

 

For those pushing an agenda, the end justifies the means. Doesn't matter if there's no scientific support, as long as the event brings attention to the cause.

 

:rolleyes:

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12Z GFS is close to bring us some rain from day 10 onward but it never quite gets here... basically no rain for the next 17 days per that run except a little along the NW WA coast and Vancouver Island.  

 

I'm guessing nothing will change, considering we are the heart of the dry season climo wise.

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Just thought I would drop in to see what the forum was saying about Michael.

 

129 mph gust just reported. Probably not a good beach day...

 

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/timeseries.php?sid=KPAM&num=72&banner=gmap&raw=0&w=325

Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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He also started talking about it after the models were already hinting at a dry period coming up.

 

We'll see how long it lasts.

 

I am guessing it lasts 7-10 days.

 

And its not a mystery or rocket science.   When it rains on 80% of the days over a 30-day period here in September into early October then a dry spell is virtually inevitable.    I can show you many examples.   Its very simple.   

 

And when its dry here... its usually dry everywhere so I can extrapolate our extended dry spells to WA and OR pretty easily.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Stephanie Abrams amazingly just recorded a wind gust of 40 mph. And she said "not even sustained... that is a gust"... like that makes it even more amazing. She seemed genuinely fascinated with the strength of 40 mph wind gusts. :)

 

Really selling this storm short by reporting on 40 mph winds at her location as being so incredible.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Michael made landfall with 155mph sustained winds.

 

Panama City is reporting 100mph sustained NNE winds from the offshore direction!

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Stephanie Abrams amazingly just recorded a wind gust of 40 mph. And she said "not even sustained... that is a gust"... like that makes it even more amazing. She seemed genuinely fascinated with the strength of 40 mph wind gusts. :)

 

Really selling this storm short by reporting on 40 mph winds at her location as being so incredible.

People often forget that the max sustained winds in a hurricane are only in a relatively small swath, with much lighter winds extending out. Storm surge affects a much larger area and is a much bigger deal most the time.

 

Also, the winds reported by the air recon are rarely reflected on the ground.

A forum for the end of the world.

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Hard to understate the significance of 100mph sustained winds being recorded on the WEST SIDE of the cyclone.

 

That’s just absurd.

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People often forget that the max sustained winds in a hurricane are only in a relatively small swath, with much lighter winds extending out. Storm surge affects a much larger area and is a much bigger deal most the time.

 

Also, the winds reported by the air recon are rarely reflected on the ground.

My God, is there anything you're NOT an eloquent expert on?

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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People often forget that the max sustained winds in a hurricane are only in a relatively small swath, with much lighter winds extending out. Storm surge affects a much larger area and is a much bigger deal most the time.

 

Also, the winds reported by the air recon are rarely reflected on the ground.

Not in terms of sustained winds, but in gusts they almost always translate to the ground somewhere.

 

Andrew produced estimated gusts to 200mph, and the Labor Day hurricane produced gusts possibly higher than that.

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Signs of the ridge eventually breaking down on the 12z ensembles. I was getting worried for a minute there!

 

attachicon.gifDAEAB440-A97E-4910-8A32-BA8A015640F8.png

 

 

Whew!!  

 

The 00Z EPS did not show the ridge breaking down at all through day 15.    What if it does not start raining every day before November?   What will we do?   Complete disaster.    :rolleyes:

 

eps_z500a_5d_noram_61.png

 

 

eps_t850a_5d_noram_61.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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You are really going all in with the shitty analogs lately. :lol:

 

Could mean we get walloped at some point. Payback for the three week arctic blast last January.

FWIW, I’m looking at the large scale wave structure..the analog years never match exactly and 2014 is no exception.

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Is there no way to build an anemometer that would survive winds of this speed? It seems like it would be interesting if they could have some sort of hardy-portable device that could take a day to set up. They could put it directly in the path of the eye before the storm hits, connect it up to some sort of website from which you could monitor the gusts, and would get some unique science data out of it.

Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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