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October 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest


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Whew!!  

 

The 00Z EPS did not show the ridge breaking down at all through day 15.    What if it does not start raining every day before November?   What will we do?  :rolleyes:

 

 

 

I've noticed the EPS tends to hug persistence, especially out in the long range. 

 

Probably going to rain again this month.

 

#sorrynotsorry

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Is there no way to build an anemometer that would survive winds of this speed? It seems like it would be interesting if they could have some sort of hardy-portable device that could take a day to set up. They could put it directly in the path of the eye before the storm hits, connect it up to some sort of website from which you could monitor the gusts, and would get some unique science data out of it.

Kind of a testament to the amount of energy contained in 100+ mph sustained winds.

 

Most I've been "out" in is probably between 60-70 mph during the 2007 coastal storm. It seriously kicks your survival instincts in gear.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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I've noticed the EPS tends to hug persistence, especially out in the long range. 

 

Probably going to rain again this month.

 

#sorrynotsorry

 

 

Probably will.  Our lives depend on it!    God knows it will not rain virtually all of November.   This is a disaster unfolding if we have to wait any longer.    Have not seen a rain drop here in 12 hours now.    :lol:

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Kind of a testament to the amount of energy contained in 100+ mph sustained winds.

 

Most I've been "out" in is probably between 60-70 mph during the 2007 coastal storm. It seriously kicks your survival instincts in gear.

 

Have you not been to Crown Point during a strong gap wind event? I've probably experienced something close to 100mph there, especially near the steps. It can get downright scary.

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Probably will.  Our lives depend on it!    God knows it will not rain virtually all of November.   This is a disaster unfolding if we have to wait any longer.    Have not seen a rain drop here in 12 hours now.    :lol:

 

Schtick to your day job.

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Not in terms of sustained winds, but in gusts they almost always translate to the ground somewhere.

 

Andrew produced estimated gusts to 200mph, and the Labor Day hurricane produced gusts possibly higher than that.

Yeah, sometimes you'll see isolated gusts match the air recon numbers, but it's pretty rare from what I've seen/read.

 

Of course, winds over 150 mph are going to wipe out most sensors, so it's tough to get reliable ground readings that high anyhow.

A forum for the end of the world.

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Have you been to Crown Point during a strong gap wind event. I've probably experienced something close to 100mph there, especially near the steps. It can get downright scary.

I remember going up there in January 1996. Dumb. We went up in January 2009 and watched some idiot park downwind and have his car door blown into his left front quarter panel.

 

There's also something to be said for having heavy rain associated with it. Adds to the doom instinct.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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I bet Jim Cantore has ridden the Abrams train to the storm a few times before.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Is there no way to build an anemometer that would survive winds of this speed? It seems like it would be interesting if they could have some sort of hardy-portable device that could take a day to set up. They could put it directly in the path of the eye before the storm hits, connect it up to some sort of website from which you could monitor the gusts, and would get some unique science data out of it.

I think Helen Hunt and Bill Paxton tried that one time.

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Yeah, sometimes you'll see isolated gusts match the air recon numbers, but it's pretty rare from what I've seen/read.

 

Of course, winds over 150 mph are going to wipe out most sensors, so it's tough to get reliable ground readings that high anyhow.

It’s rare to *record* them instrumentally. Usually there is either no anemometer at those locations, or the anemometers have broken. However it’s actually pretty common for those gusts to mix down in isolated locations.

 

This is why the estimated gusts in reanalysis are almost always stronger than the highest instrumental readings on the ground.

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I am sensing from my facebook feed tonight that my family and friends in Minnesota are REALLY sick of rain.    I have seen at least 20 posts about it today... and this meme has come up 3 times already.   I know this feeling!    :)

 

43429711_1907794379305046_84226419865734

So many times I have felt just like that.. Ugh...

"Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness."

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Amazing how it achieved its maximum intensity after making landfall.

 

It was about to go all labor-day-hurricane on us.

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Wasn’t the last Cat5 landfall Andrew in 1992? Also a +ENSO year with a very strong +NAO summer?

 

#Analog

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Was just thinking that. Not a great solar match.

Yeah, plus the reasons for the +NAO/+NAM that summer we’re different from this year.

 

But..still. Gonna keep an eye on it.

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Yeah, plus the reasons for the +NAO/+NAM that summer we’re different from this year.

 

But..still. Gonna keep an eye on it.

 

 

Just an absolutely lovely winter here.    So many dry days and many with cold air in place.    

 

December was nice... and then we had 45 days without precipitation here in January and February.    That is crazy nice.   March was really nice too.  

 

Then it all went to sh*t in April.   Although we probably could avoid a summer like 1993 without the volcanic influence this time around.   ;)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just an absolutely lovely winter here.    So many dry days and many with cold air in place.    

 

December was nice... and then we had 45 days without precipitation here in January and February.    That is crazy nice.   March was really nice too.  

 

Then it all went to sh*t in April.   Although we probably could avoid a summer like 1993 without the volcanic influence this time around.   ;)

 

July 1993 would have been cold in this region regardless of Pinatubo erupting in June 1991  ;)

 

Also, you would have lost power and likely whined a bunch following the Inauguration Day Windstorm. Then whined clear on through August.

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In other news... The 12z ECMWF shows a pretty transitory ridge. 

Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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12Z ECMWF just scrapes us with troughing by day 10... but is about to put up another ridge right after that if it were to verify. We will see what the EPS says in the 10-15 day period.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just 10 short days! Blink and you will miss it. :)

 

The point was if you run the loop the ridge never really sets up shop. Transitory.

Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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