October 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

And it's still dry for us at day 10... would not surprise me to see the ridge dented and then rebounding. Very unlikely to see a ridge remain solidly over us for that long at this time of year.

[Kayla]

Yeah........... I don't think I'd call that a transitory ridge. If that's the case we just came out of a very transitory summer.

 

Meh, it doesn't look nearly as semi-permanent as some on here have been describing.

[Deweydog]

Meh, it doesn't look nearly as semi-permeant as some on here have been describing.

No doubt it's been trumped up a bit. Ridging, just like , happens.

[TT-SEA]

Definitely a warm month if not for some 12,000 mile away volcano eruption 25 months earlier   

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1993/us0712.php

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1993/us0717.php

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1993/us0729.php

 

 

Yep... there was no global cooling effect after that volcano.  

[TT-SEA]

Meh, it doesn't look nearly as semi-permanent as some on here have been describing.

 

 

I said my best guess was 7-10 days of dry weather.

 

Does the ECMWF show that?   

[weatherfan2012]

Heart stopping picture from Tyndall AFB.

stunning shot well defind Eye.

[Chewbacca Defense]

Now it's just going to be a matter of how long Michael can remain a Major Hurricane, then a hurricane as it heads into Georgia overnight. It's going to be one long night.

 

 

My Mom lived about 20-30 miles NW of Thomasville Ga up until this past winter.  Glad she got out.  They had another hurricane run through that area within the past few years, it was nowhere near as big and it scared the hell out of her.  Can't imagine her dealing with this one (she is 79).

 

Lots of friends in that area, they will definitely be dealing with a lot of flooding and tornadoes overnight...  I think most of that region should have most of their crops harvested by now (might still be some cotton out in the fields) so hopefully they won't take too much of a hit there.

 

 

 

edit:  Just read they have not started harvesting cotton yet.  Pecans could be hit hard too.  Also read that the area where my mom lived should expect sustained winds at 75mph overnight.

[BLI snowman]

Yep... there was no global cooling effect after that volcano.  

 

1992 of course was one of the warmest years on record in the PNW. Only December wound up chilly. And then the spring of 1993 was quite balmy overall, as was the tail end of summer and start of fall. Blaming the cold mid-summer weather pattern on volcanism sounds like an easy cop-out, engineered towards deflecting away from the fact that we're steamrolling towards a repeat in 2019.

[Phil]

Meh, it doesn't look nearly as semi-permanent as some on here have been describing.

The ridge will probably reform since there’s a long anticyclonic wavetrain with stable phase speeds for awhile to come.

[MossMan]

92-93 I remember quite well. My first winter season as a licensed driver. You learn real fast what a 1975 El Camino rear wheel drive with no weight in the back handles in slick conditions! Both the vehicle and myself survived though! No huge event but lots of small snow events that stuck around due to dry/cold conditions. Lake Goodwin froze solid. And then the windstorm, driving over large branches trying to get home from school with 2 of the 3 possible ways home being blocked by large downed trees. Fun winter!!

[Deweydog]

Looks like Michael is weakening.

 

#bust

[Esquimalt]

Looks like Michael is weakening.

 

#bust

Troll.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

My Mom lived about 20-30 miles NW of Thomasville Ga up until this past winter.  Glad she got out.  They had another hurricane run through that area within the past few years, it was nowhere near as big and it scared the hell out of her.  Can't imagine her dealing with this one (she is 79).

 

Lots of friends in that area, they will definitely be dealing with a lot of flooding and tornadoes overnight...  I think most of that region should have most of their crops harvested by now (might still be some cotton out in the fields) so hopefully they won't take too much of a hit there.

 

 

 

edit:  Just read they have not started harvesting cotton yet.  Pecans could be hit hard too.  Also read that the area where my mom lived should expect sustained winds at 75mph overnight.

Glad your mom was able to move. The 12z EURO has Michael tracking just to the West of Albany as it moves to the NE but it's going to put that area in the windiest part of the hurricane. Wind gust still in excess of 100mph.

[Phil]

Unreal video coming out now from Mexico Beach. Ginger Zee from ABC news was right in the middle of it.

 

This thing is gonna be reanalyzed to a Category 5, no question about that.

[TT-SEA]

1992 of course was one of the warmest years on record in the PNW. Only December wound up chilly. And then the spring of 1993 was quite balmy overall, as was the tail end of summer and start of fall. Blaming the cold mid-summer weather pattern on volcanism sounds like an easy cop-out, engineered towards deflecting away from the fact that we're steamrolling towards a repeat in 2019.

Your trolling lacks the cleverness it once had... feels like you are just swatting aimlessly now.

[Phil]

Check out this twitter playlist from Mexico Beach.

 

https://twitter.com/twittermoments/status/1050106846281981953?s=21

[Phil]

This was BEFORE the strongest part of the eyewall arrived and knocked them off the air.

 

https://twitter.com/ABC/status/1050073939047636999?s=20

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS for the 10-15 day period... strong signal for that time frame.  

 

 

[Phil]

12Z EPS for the 10-15 day period... strong signal for that time frame.

 

 

I miss -NAOs. At least the entire country can share the cold with Greenland blocking, as opposed to just the northeastern third with a vortex there.

[BLI snowman]

Your trolling lacks the cleverness it once had... feels like you are just swatting aimlessly now.

 

If it seems aimless then that's because it's pointed in the same direction as your posts 

[TT-SEA]

If it seems aimless then that's because it's pointed in the same direction as your posts

No... it's just aimless.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

92-93 is a nice analog. Some goodies in the valley.

 

I'm skeptical that Greenland vortex will move ever again in our lifetimes.

[Phil]

[BLI snowman]

No... it's just aimless.

 

 

I'm just hoping to avoid a May 1993 repeat next year. 2nd warmest on record at OLM thanks to volcanism.

[Phil]

They did eventually close the window.

 

https://twitter.com/Ginger_Zee/status/1050078510931427328?s=20

 

It sucks that they were knocked off the air during the worst of it..hopefully that have a memory chip.

[TT-SEA]

I'm just hoping to avoid a May 1993 repeat next year. 2nd warmest on record at OLM thanks to volcanism.

 

 

Yep... its all made up.   There is no volcanic effect on the global climate and never has been.   The sun activity is meaningless too.  

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Check out this twitter playlist from Mexico Beach.

 

https://twitter.com/twittermoments/status/1050106846281981953?s=21

Surreal images and videos. This is one for the record books.

[Phil]

This tweet was from hurricane chaser Josh Morgerman, AKA @iCyclone.

 

One of nastiest, scariest f*cking 'canes I've been in. Lord.

Consider the fact this guy was in the middle of 190mph hurricane Patricia, super typhoon Mangkut, and a bunch of other super typhoons and major hurricanes over the years.

[BLI snowman]

Yep... its all made up.   There is no volcanic effect on the global climate and never has been.   The sun activity is meaningless too.  

 

seems tru but then i read cool summers only happen here within 2 to twenty years of major volcanic event. so we should be safe

[Phil]

[BLI snowman]

Definitely reminds me of South Miami after Andrew

 

https://twitter.com/StormVisuals/status/1050118658717040640/photo/1

[TT-SEA]

seems tru but then i read cool summers only happen here within 2 to twenty years of major volcanic event. so we should be safe

 

Whew!!  

 

We are about to start feeling the effects of the 1815 eruption of Tambora.   I heard some talk of 1816 being cold globally but I don't believe it.   That was unrelated.   Usually takes 200+ years for it to really be felt.  

[Phil]

Definitely reminds me of South Miami after Andrew

 

https://twitter.com/StormVisuals/status/1050118658717040640/photo/1

I bet reanalysis puts gusts at least to 170mph considering sustained 925mb winds hit ~ 180mph, with gusts reaching up to 212mph.

 

Would not surprise me if 190+mph occurred inside one of the mesovorticies, similar to Andrew.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Watching some of the vids the power and destruction looks like a giant tornado.

[Phil]

Have to say, it’s pretty awesome how strong the trees are in the Southeastern US. They’ve clearly adapted to deal with hurricanes.

[Phil]

Jesus Christ.

 

https://twitter.com/wflajosh/status/1050098823194963968?s=21

[Geos]

Jesus Christ.

 

https://twitter.com/wflajosh/status/1050098823194963968?s=21

Hell of a storm surge. Eye almost into GA now.

[Phil]

Hell of a storm surge. Eye almost into GA now.

And it’s still a strong Cat3 storm, and will be a Cat3 well into GA. Unbelievable.

 

Michael will actually be just the 3rd Cat3 storm to ever occur in GA in recorded history..and he made landfall in FL first. Crazy stuff.

[MossMan]

And it’s still a strong Cat3 storm, and will be a Cat3 well into GA. Unbelievable.

 

Michael will actually be just the 3rd Cat3 storm to ever occur in GA in recorded history..and he made landfall in FL first. Crazy stuff.

Much less hyped than Flo was...I didn’t even know there was a hurricane out there until just two days ago. This thing just exploded quickly and moved fast, hopefully people were fully prepared down there.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Wow, Michael's eye went directly over the Alabama-Georgia-Florida border as a Major Hurricane. This is probably the first time in history a major hurricanes eye has been in 3 states at the same time.