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October 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest


Tyler Mode

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Such a chilly fall!

 

People need to realize that that word means nothing now. PDX had a high of 52 on this date in 1940. And that was in a blowtorch year!

 

Those days are long gone and that will remain the case regardless of how slightly below average the next 10 days are.

They were -0.1F for September. I think we’ve finally turned a corner, guys.

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With all due respect, I think you’re the one that refuses to listen when I point out flaws in your analysis.

 

For instance, if you lump all ENSOs together, you will obtain a bogus result that simply reflects ENSO.

 

This has clearly been a pet peeve of yours for years. I've addressed these points, but you already had your mind made up - before you even knew what some of the correlations were, actually. :lol:

 

So that's why I'm not going to bother getting into those correlations with you yet again. HINT: it's not just an October thing.

A forum for the end of the world.

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Such a chilly fall!

 

People need to realize that that word means nothing now. PDX had a high of 52 on this date in 1940. And that was in a blowtorch year!

 

Those days are long gone and that will remain the case regardless of how slightly below average the next 10 days are.

I think the next 7-10 days will end up pretty chilly for most the region. Definitely more than -.1!

A forum for the end of the world.

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This has clearly been a pet peeve of yours for years. I've addressed these points, but you already had your mind made up - before you even knew what some of the correlations were, actually. :lol:

 

So that's why I'm not going to bother getting into those correlations with you yet again. HINT: it's not just an October thing.

I never denied the existence of your correlations, as you frame them.

 

I just think they’re bogus artifacts, mostly from blending incompatible years together. Blend enough years and you’ll start picking up low-frequency ENSO correlations that explain maybe 55-60% of the variance.

 

Then you have another 40% variance to explain. Oops.

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Had just over a half an inch of rain from this mornings PSCZ. Wet!!

Yeah I can see that coming. Clouds are darkening up now. Pretty cool out with that wind.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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I never denied the existence of your correlations, as you frame them.

 

I just think they’re bogus artifacts, mostly from blending incompatible years together. Blend enough years and you’ll start picking up low-frequency ENSO correlations that explain maybe 55-60% of the variance.

 

Then you have another 40% variance to explain. Oops.

FWIW, I remember a supposed correlation between October temperature anomalies in Fairbanks AK, and subsequent PNW winters. This in addition to the more well-known October = destiny thing.

 

Then when I looked into it, I found that October temperature anomalies in Fairbanks are, in fact, weakly anti-correlated to October temperature anomalies in the PNW in the satellite era. How is that possible if they’re both positive correlations? :lol:

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FWIW, I remember a supposed correlation between October temperature anomalies in Fairbanks AK, and subsequent PNW winters. This in addition to the more well-known October = destiny thing.

 

Then when I looked into it, I found that October temperature anomalies in Fairbanks are, in fact, weakly anti-correlated to October temperature anomalies in the PNW in the satellite era. How is that possible if they’re both positive correlations? :lol:

The ironic thing about this is you're leaving out the ENSO component to that correlation. Among other things.

 

That's why it's hopeless trying to have an actual discussion with you about this topic. :lol:

A forum for the end of the world.

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In other news..woah. Big buildup of westerly anomalies in the NH subtropics, which can be precisely timed to the downwelling +QBO during equinox conditions.

 

Have to assume we’ll have a big-time poleward propagation of +AAM at some point before New Years. The question is what happens afterwards re: any potential easterly deposition thereafter.

 

30mb, 50mb, 100mb, 200mb, 300mb:

 

rx3eAcY.jpg

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rewPDku.jpg

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The ironic thing about this is you're leaving out the ENSO component to that correlation.

 

That's why it's hopeless trying to have an actual discussion with you about this topic. :lol:

I remember that. And tuning for ENSO simply turns the anti-correlation into a wash (no correlation) for -ENSO and strengthens the anti-correlation for +ENSO.

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I remember that. And tuning for ENSO simply turns the anti-correlation into a wash (no correlation) for -ENSO and strengthens the anti-correlation for +ENSO.

Your criticisms are both all over the place and conflicting.

 

October correlations besides your own are your pet peeve. We got it.

A forum for the end of the world.

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I don't live at PDX and I didn't. I'm sure the holy state capital underwhelmed as well.

I remember wxstatman or someone posting about some local station that saw a pretty impressive benchmark low last month. And I know a number of people on here reported lows in the 30s.

A forum for the end of the world.

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Your criticisms are both all over the place and conflicting.

 

October correlations besides your own are your pet peeve. We got it.

Huh? I don’t have any October correlations. At least not from a predictive standpoint.

 

And believe me, I’ve looked.

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Here is a picture posted on here from that event in Bellingham... from Twitter.

 

post-164-0-54891900-1509712533.jpg

 

 

And here is a web cam image from the next morning that I posted...

 

bv5.png

 

I remember that event well. Snowed about 2" here and about 8" on Squak Mountain above Lakemont. 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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90% of those are reserved for storms east of the Mississippi.

 

Yup, they only mention them impacting us in retrospect. Cleon was Dec 2013 in Eugene/Springfield.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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I don't live at PDX and I didn't. I'm sure the holy state capital underwhelmed as well.

 

Lowest I have been so far this season is 38. Not very impressive. Back when I moved here a little over 7 years ago, the average historical first freeze at Silver Falls was September 23rd, the latest freeze on record was October 25th. I know my earliest freeze in the first 7 falls I have been here was October 2nd and I didn't even have a freeze until December 4th in 2016. Here is what it's looked like at Silver Falls, again prior to this the AVERAGE first freeze was 9/23 and the latest ever 10/25

 

2011: 10/25

2012: 11/10

2013: 10/7

2014: 11/10

2015: 11/16

2016: 12/4

2017: 10/30

2018: ?

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Beautiful afternoon.

 

43000440_1119449068224227_64824844071804

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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The record low for today's date at Silver Falls is 26 set in 1950. The cold snap centered around October 10th in 1985 was pretty sharp, a low of 22 on the 9th. 

 

In fact  many good years featured a cold snap (Low in the 20s at Silver Falls) in the 2nd week of October. I am not calling it a correlation, but it is interesting. 

 

2013

2008

1990

1985

1972

1968

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Down to 49-50 in the middle of the convergence zone right now.

 

ATX.N0Q.20181002.2154.gif

 

Dumping in Everett. 

 

current.jpg

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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The record low for today's date at Silver Falls is 26 set in 1950. The cold snap centered around October 10th in 1985 was pretty sharp, a low of 22 on the 9th.

 

In fact many good years featured a cold snap (Low in the 20s at Silver Falls) in the 2nd week of October. I am not calling it a correlation, but it is interesting.

 

2013

2008

1990

1985

1972

1968

Yep, part of what I alluded to earlier.

A forum for the end of the world.

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Yep, part of what I alluded to earlier.

 

Yeah, I am not arguing with you. 

 

Interestingly I have found a decent correlation between wet October's and snow up here. But it is more of a higher elevation correlation with that, as some of the years that had good snowfall up here were not cold/snowy below 1000'. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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I’m really starting to worry about another US hurricane impact this month. Pattern sucks a big one..huge WATL ridge preventing recurves and a favorable MJO for WHEM uplift = trouble.

Any cold front that makes it into the waters runs the risk of igniting a warm core low underneath than steroidal Bermuda High. Ticking time bomb.

Larry Cosgrove would agree with you in fact he has been highly talking about a big tropical threat this month for the past few months.
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