October 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Jesse]

Some of the temperature spreads on the west today were pretty Central-oregon esque.

 

73/35 at VUO is nice.

[Dave]

You said 29 there?

I threw my garbage a** LaCrosse technology weather station into the garbage can. I only have an old school analog one now. It was also probably around 77 for a high, so the diurnal spread would still be 45.

[Deweydog]

Why?

I think they'd need to prove their worth as a either of those, which generally have an easier time in smallish markets, before they'd get the chance with the NFL and their superiority complex.

[Deweydog]

I did notice that VUO never got any offshore winds today, and stayed at 73. Then of course TTD had a lot of it and stayed at 70. So PDX was kind of in the sweet spot.

 

Wouldn't surprise me to see the warmth work its way down in at least a few areas later this week.

It wouldn't take a whole lot Friday or Saturday but the hole gets narrower everyday. The next three days should be about the same, cooler in some of the spots that threaded the needle today.

[AbbyJr]

The odds are always “yes”. Even in El Niño years.

 

However, will this be a colder and/or snowier than normal winter in Seattle? I’m skeptical it will be, but if I had to guess, a snowy year is more likely than a cold year, since an early-season snowfall in November or December is actually somewhat likely based on history in analogous years, while persistent cold looks increasingly difficult to come by as winter progresses.

What about for the Lower Mainland and Fraser Valley up in the Vancouver BC, Canada area? Do you think there is a good chance of at least one significant cold and or snow event this winter? Perhaps, late November through mid December? November 2006 was actually a fairly low solar year and it was also a weak El Nino and the month was very stormy with numerous Atmospheric River rain and wind events. By the end of the month, another Atmospheric River event unfolded, only that time it met up with an unseasonably strong arctic front and produced a widespread snowstorm with snow amounts of 30-50 cm within 24 hours. Obviously we can't expect a repeat of a storm to that degree, but it does look like the solar activity will be even lower during this upcoming weak El Nino than it was during the 2006/2007 one. I feel like ruling out an active November with some early cold and snow chances this winter would be irresponsible. But thats just my take on it. What do you think Phil?

[BLI snowman]

What about 2007/08 or 2004/05? From the list you provided, the majority of the PNW region was cool/wet in October during 2012, 1982, 1975, and 1963, while 1999, 1966, and 1960 were borderline but tilted that way synoptically.

 

That’s 6/15 years, or 40% of all cases. Adjust for knowable factors like ENSO et al, and the correlation is rendered meaningless in terms of its predictive value

 

1982 was warm/wet, 2012 had average temps with above average precip, 2007 was cool with average precip, 2004 was warm/wet, and 1963 was warm/wet.

 

Not seeing a lot of cold and wet Octobers there. Some examples of those would be 2009, 1996, 1994, 1990, 1985, 1984, 1981, 1975, 1971, 1968, 1956, 1955, and 1950.

[El_Nina]

I think they'd need to prove their worth as a either of those, which generally have an easier time in smallish markets, before they'd get the chance with the NFL and their superiority complex.

It seems like Portlanders are just more proud of their city than a lot of others. There would be a very reliable fan base here. The population is exploding too.

[Deweydog]

It seems like Portlanders are just more proud of their city than a lot of others. There would be a very reliable fan base here. The population is exploding too.

I'm sure the fan base would be typical for any west coast team after the new car smell wears off. Ravenous if you're winning, not so much if you're not.

[Dave]

I'm not a die hard MLB fan, but I think it would kick a** in Portland and be well received as long as a decent location for the stadium could be found. Baseball is a bit boring on TV, but going to games during summer evenings would be lovely. With the trend towards smaller stadiums and PDX's lack of other major sports, it could do well.

[TT-SEA]

Portland has no MLB or NFL team... second tier city.     Seattle will likely be getting NHL and the NBA will eventually follow.

 

Not I sure I would root for a MLB or NFL team in Portland if Seattle had nothing... like so many people in the Portland area cheer for the Mariners and Seahawks.   Strange to hate the Sounders and Huskies so much... but then cheer for the Mariners and Seahawks.  

[Front Ranger]

More than a handful.

 

2015-16

2014-15

2012-13

2002-03

1999-00

1991-92

1986-87

1982-83

1976-77

1969-70

1966-67

1963-64

1960-61

1957-58

1952-53

 

Lots of garbage to choose from.

 

You must have been thinking Portland. Phil said SEA...which had snowfall in 1966-67, 1963-64, and 1960-61.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Ah, I see. You were referring to the 74/29 at EUG, not your location.

Both Eugene/Springfield had above freezing readings in town. The airport skews what people think about the south valley as it's not representative of the Eugene/Springfield are.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Portland has no MLB or NFL team... second tier city. Seattle will likely be getting NHL and the NBA will eventually follow.

 

Not I sure I would root for a MLB or NFL team in Portland if Seattle had nothing... like so many people in the Portland area cheer for the Mariners and Seahawks. Strange to hate the Sounders and Huskies so much... but then cheer for the Mariners and Seahawks.

The Athletics will move to PDX eventually once Russell and co buy the team.

[Front Ranger]

I think they'd need to prove their worth as a either of those, which generally have an easier time in smallish markets, before they'd get the chance with the NFL and their superiority complex.

 

And yet, somehow Green Bay and Buffalo have NFL teams.

[Front Ranger]

Both Eugene/Springfield had above freezing readings in town. The airport skews what people think about the south valley as it's not representative of the Eugene/Springfield are.

 

I'm not sure it "skews" things any more than many UHI-influenced airports do for their areas. 

 

I think most people on here are aware that unadulterated stations like EUG and OLM merely reflect less urban, radiational cooling-friendly spots outside the cities, not the entire surrounding region. 

[Phil]

1982 was warm/wet, 2012 had average temps with above average precip, 2007 was cool with average precip, 2004 was warm/wet, and 1963 was warm/wet.

 

Not seeing a lot of cold and wet Octobers there. Some examples of those would be 2009, 1996, 1994, 1990, 1985, 1984, 1981, 1975, 1971, 1968, 1956, 1955, and 1950.

I think your memory is flawed. These were all colder and wetter than average Octobers in the SEA area, and they were all followed by pathetic winters. Though 1966 was better in the north, I think.

 

 

[Front Ranger]

Portland has no MLB or NFL team... second tier city.     Seattle will likely be getting NHL and the NBA will eventually follow.

 

Not I sure I would root for a MLB or NFL team in Portland if Seattle had nothing... like so many people in the Portland area cheer for the Mariners and Seahawks.   Strange to hate the Sounders and Huskies so much... but then cheer for the Mariners and Seahawks.  

 

This is, of course, a troll post.

 

I'd point out, though, that it's not strange at all since there are no other NFL or MLB teams in the PNW to cheer for, while there are plenty of college football teams and Portland's own MLS team.

[jcmcgaffey]

This is, of course, a troll post.

 

I'd point out, though, that it's not strange at all since there are no other NFL or MLB teams in the PNW to cheer for, while there are plenty of college football teams and Portland's own MLS team.

 That is exactly the reason.

[jcmcgaffey]

And yet, somehow Green Bay and Buffalo have NFL teams.

My theory is that those areas have different demographics as well as less things to do during the winters than the west coast.  The northwest has better weather during the winter and better options to things other than stay warm and watch football.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

[Front Ranger]

Rain at 180!

[TT-SEA]

This is, of course, a troll post.

 

I'd point out, though, that it's not strange at all since there are no other NFL or MLB teams in the PNW to cheer for, while there are plenty of college football teams and Portland's own MLS team.

 

 

I understand the reason... just not sure I would be a rabid fan of a MLB or NFL team in Portland even if there were no other PNW options.     Portlanders are generally huge fans of both Seattle teams.   As much as people up here.  

[Phil]

Interesting. We rarely see this pattern nowadays..

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_18gfs814.gif

[Front Ranger]

He's a bit salty about Saturday

 

That was a great game. Coming from a UW fan and alum. 

[jcmcgaffey]

He's a bit salty about Saturday

Ill have to admit I am too.  Although Oregon sort of deserves it after the end game meltdown against Stanford.

[TT-SEA]

Rain at 180!

 

00Z ICON disagrees.  

 

And the 00Z GFS has definitely backed off somewhat on day 8 and 9 from the 12Z run at the 500mb level.    Hard to imagine it will not rain by Tuesday though.   00Z GFS is really wet on day 9... probably because the trough is not as deep.  

[jcmcgaffey]

That was a great game. Coming from a UW fan and alum. 

What was your major and year of graduation?

[Deweydog]

And yet, somehow Green Bay and Buffalo have NFL teams.

Yes they do. Very good.

[Front Ranger]

What was your major and year of graduation?

 

Elementary education (though it wasn't called that) and 2006.

 

You?

[Front Ranger]

Yes they do. Very good.

 

Much smaller cities than Portland.

[Dave]

I understand the reason... just not sure I would be a rabid fan of a MLB or NFL team in Portland even if there were no other PNW options.     Portlanders are generally huge fans of both Seattle teams.   As much as people up here.  

Meh. Most people I know down here are not Seahawks or Mariners fans. The main reason why is that if a Dawg is happy, that conflicts with Ducks being happy. There are obviously some exceptions, especially for the younger crowd.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Rain at 180!

Eugene/Springfield's storm drains are fuked if that verifies.

[Deweydog]

Much smaller cities than Portland.

In that case Boise might be on deck. Or perhaps even Eugene. I hear there's a lot of football fans at either locale!

[Deweydog]

The 00z looks like a 1.375+ inch disaster.

[Front Ranger]

Meh. Most people I know down here are not Seahawks or Mariners fans. The main reason why is that if a Dawg is happy, that conflicts with Ducks being happy. There are obviously some exceptions, especially for the younger crowd.

 

All of my dad's side of the family lives in OR, spread from Portland to Ashland. Most of them are Seahawk and/or Mariners fans. They view it as supporting the PNW, I guess.

 

Of course, a lot of people in the PNW are neither Ducks or Dawgs. 

[TT-SEA]

Meh. Most people I know down here are not Seahawks or Mariners fans. The main reason why is that if a Dawg is happy, that conflicts with Ducks being happy. There are obviously some exceptions, especially for the younger crowd.

 

 

That is the same feeling I would have.  

 

But someone like Andrew on this forum (who is from Portland and went to CWU in Ellensburg) is a RABID fan of CWU football and the Ducks and the Seahawks.   Crazy for all of them!    I guess they are all mutually exclusive.  

[TigerWoodsLibido]

The 00z looks like a 1.375+ inch disaster.

Oh yeah, we are going from cracked ground to fire hose with leaves all over the place. Once it gets inside of 8 days hopefully it will pull it back to being just normal shitt

[jcmcgaffey]

Elementary education (though it wasn't called that) and 2006.

 

You?

Construction management 2007 but should have finished in 2005 but changed majors from Meteorology once I found out how difficult it is to make a living off of it and how few job opportunities there are.

[BLI snowman]

You must have been thinking Portland. Phil said SEA...which had snowfall in 1966-67, 1963-64, and 1960-61.

1963-64 was basically snowless everywhere (

 

I also could add 1987-88 if I were looking at SEA only.

[El_Nina]

Next Monday is going to be "a bit cloudier."