October 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

I know I keep saying it but I hope Rob is ok. Really miss the night shift.

 

He will be back when wind or cold shows up in the models. 

[TT-SEA]

Fascinating stuff. I’ll have to do some research tomorrow on that 2007 anomaly. Sounds like a sting jet type feature that must have had some spatial stability and sat there for a little while?

 

 

As I mentioned before... this event was incredible on the ground here as well.

 

We had 24 inches of snow in about 12 hours overnight on 12/1 into the morning of 12/2.    Then the temperature jumped up about 30 degrees during the afternoon of 12/2 with a strong south wind.   By the morning of 12/3... it was around 60 degrees and all of the snow was gone.  Fastest snow melt I have ever seen in my life given how much we started with the day before.  

 

We did not have the massive rain here so there was only minimal flooding... but SW WA was pounded and I-5 went under water in places and was closed for a couple days.

[TT-SEA]

Have at it Phil... 

 

https://www.earth.com/news/pacific-blob-returns/

[BLI snowman]

As I mentioned before... this event was incredible on the ground here as well.

 

We had 24 inches of snow in about 12 hours overnight on 12/1 into the morning of 12/2.    Then the temperature jumped up about 30 degrees during the afternoon of 12/2 with a strong south wind.   By the morning of 12/3... it was around 60 degrees and all of the snow was gone.  Fastest snow melt I have ever seen in my life given how much we started with the day before.  

 

We did not have the massive rain here so there was only minimal flooding... but SW WA was pounded and I-5 went under water in places and was closed for a couple days.

 

The rainfall rates were pretty amazing to the west of I-5. Bremerton had 9.72" of rain on the 3rd.

[Geos]

Nice and sunny now. Only managed 0.06" of rain last night. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

The rainfall rates were pretty amazing to the west of I-5. Bremerton had 9.72" of rain on the 3rd.

EUG only had a couple inches with that and was in the mid-50s with light BSF.

[ShawniganLake]

As I mentioned before... this event was incredible on the ground here as well.

 

We had 24 inches of snow in about 12 hours overnight on 12/1 into the morning of 12/2. Then the temperature jumped up about 30 degrees during the afternoon of 12/2 with a strong south wind. By the morning of 12/3... it was around 60 degrees and all of the snow was gone. Fastest snow melt I have ever seen in my life given how much we started with the day before.

 

We did not have the massive rain here so there was only minimal flooding... but SW WA was pounded and I-5 went under water in places and was closed for a couple days.

Pretty similar up here. 20”+ of snow was gone in the blink of an eye. We did have a massive rainstorm though. 5”+ in about 12 hours. Lots of flooding and some flat commercial roof failures.

[Phil]

[TT-SEA]

Nice and sunny now. Only managed 0.06" of rain last night. 

 

Quite a lovely day.   Tomorrow and Friday look very wet.  

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Have at it Phil...

 

https://www.earth.com/news/pacific-blob-returns/

Didn't we have a pretty ample blob in 13-14? I know other aspects of the atmosphere and solar don't line up but the blob is so overblown.

[MossMan]

Quite a lovely day. Tomorrow and Friday look very wet.

Wonder how long the Camano Island radar will be down for.

[AbbyJr]

Have at it Phil...

 

https://www.earth.com/news/pacific-blob-returns/

The following was said in the article:

 

"The Pacific blob of warm water creates a high-pressure period, which changes the direction of the Pacific Jet Stream. That causes warmer weather, and in the case of California’s Ridiculously Resilient Ridge, prevented normal winter storms from making landfall where they’re most needed."

 

But this is false. The blob did not cause the persistent ridging. Rather, the persistent ridging caused the blob. Sure, the blob was around during the winter of 2014/2015 but that was during a high solar and strong El Nino period, which more than likely resulted in the persistent ridging.

[wx_statman]

Fascinating stuff. I’ll have to do some research tomorrow on that 2007 anomaly. Sounds like a sting jet type feature that must have had some spatial stability and sat there for a little while?

 

Don't sting jets propagate pretty fast, by their nature? I'm not too familiar with the mesoscale dynamics of the '07 storm, but it sounds like more of a barrier jet situation as dewey mentioned earlier. The fact that stronger winds + heavier rain was concentrated on the western side of the Willamette valley also supports a barrier jet idea, from what I understand...

[AbbyJr]

Didn't we have a pretty ample blob in 13-14? I know other aspects of the atmosphere and solar don't line up but the blob is so overblown.

Yes, the blob is way overblown.

[Deweydog]

Don't sting jets propagate pretty fast, by their nature? I'm not too familiar with the mesoscale dynamics of the '07 storm, but it sounds like more of a barrier jet situation as dewey mentioned earlier. The fact that stronger winds + heavier rain was concentrated on the western side of the Willamette valley also supports a barrier jet idea, from what I understand...

Yeah, that was a massive barrier jet set up with amazingly good mixing to the surface. It still boggles my mind that we had such strong winds with absolutely no major pressure rises associated with a surface low passage. It was all gradient-based which allowed it to become so persistent. Some of the populated areas had 60+ mph gusts for 36 hours.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Yeah, that was a massive barrier jet set up with amazingly good mixing to the surface. It still boggles my mind that we had such strong winds with absolutely no major pressure rises associated with a surface low passage. It was all gradient-based which allowed it to become so persistent. Some of the populated areas had 60+ mph gusts for 36 hours.

 

Probly has about a 1/200 chance of happening in a given year.  Crazy indeed.

[Deweydog]

Deceptively cool afternoon in the upper 60's out there...

[Jesse]

Deceptively cool afternoon in the upper 60's out there...

Fitting after our deceptively warm August icebox.

 

#weirdyear

[wx_statman]

Yeah, that was a massive barrier jet set up with amazingly good mixing to the surface. It still boggles my mind that we had such strong winds with absolutely no major pressure rises associated with a surface low passage. It was all gradient-based which allowed it to become so persistent. Some of the populated areas had 60+ mph gusts for 36 hours.

 

Super interesting reading this. It makes sense. 

[MossMan]

Yeah, that was a massive barrier jet set up with amazingly good mixing to the surface. It still boggles my mind that we had such strong winds with absolutely no major pressure rises associated with a surface low passage. It was all gradient-based which allowed it to become so persistent. Some of the populated areas had 60+ mph gusts for 36 hours.

I do not remember this storm... .

[Jesse]

I need a Valium.

One of my professors mentioned the blob today. He said, “What is it outside right now? About 60 degrees. That’s warm. If it weren’t for the blob it would be colder right now.”

 

Sounds made up, but sadly it’s true. This guy has his doctorate too.

[TT-SEA]

Heading east from Issaquah right now (was car shopping with my son and he is driving).

 

[MossMan]

Heading east from Issaquah right now (was car shopping with my son and he is driving).

 

Did he buy a car?

[TT-SEA]

Did he buy a car?

 

 

Nope!

 

He has an unrealistic idea of the value of his 2007 Jeep which feels like a go-cart on the freeway.     

[Deweydog]

I do not remember this storm... .

It was pretty forgettable inland from a wind perspective.

[luminen]

One of my professors mentioned the blob today. He said, “What is it outside right now? About 60 degrees. That’s warm. If it weren’t for the bob it would be colder right now.”

 

Sounds made up, but sadly it’s true. This guy has his doctorate too.

What field does he teach? Laughably retarded comment though... 

[Jesse]

What field does he teach? Laughably retarded comment though...

Global Climate Change. It is basically a class designed to get all the Earth Sciences majors to a proper level of alarmism.

 

400 level course too. I haven’t been overly impressed so far.

[Jesse]

60-ish in the afternoon is just about as normal as you can get for 10/24 around here. Hardly "blame the blob" worthy.

[luminen]

Global Climate Change. It is basically a class designed to get all the Earth Sciences majors to a proper level of alarmism.

 

400 level course too. I haven’t been overly impressed so far.

 

That sounds like a vomit-inducing affair. I took two classes like that at UO which were quite painful but at least I got A's in both of them.     

 

Those classes were basically "put the square shape in the square hole" and you get an A+. 

 

Are you studying geology? That's what I studied. Should've gone to a different school though for that. 

[Jesse]

[luminen]

Yeah, it can feel that way sometimes.

 

Geology is a strong interest of mine. Although right now I am leaning toward Geospatial Climatology for my Master’s. The research department I am interning with actually specializes in hydrology (snowpack climo).

 

What sort of career did you end up going for with a geology degree?

 

Real estate. Made several attempts at mining but could never get my foot in the door even though most of the mining workforce is quite old and they know it. It's a strange but undoubtedly interesting field.

[wx_statman]

One of my professors mentioned the blob today. He said, “What is it outside right now? About 60 degrees. That’s warm. If it weren’t for the blob it would be colder right now.”

 

Sounds made up, but sadly it’s true. This guy has his doctorate too.

 

Thankfully it's not the professor I met with a couple weeks ago, when I went up there. She's not teaching this semester. 

[Jesse]

Thankfully it's not the professor I met with a couple weeks ago, when I went up there. She's not teaching this semester.

Yeah, most of the professors up here are pretty top notch. Even the guy I was quoting is quite knowledgeable about many things, and I think his heart is in the right place. He has definitely provided more than a few facepalm moments, though.

[Jesse]

Surprised to see a few rain showers moving in this evening.

 

The next several days have certainly trended wetter and cooler. Even down here.

[MossMan]

Rain!

[wx_statman]

Yeah, most of the professors up here are pretty top notch. Even the guy I was quoting is quite knowledgeable about many things, and I think his heart is in the right place. He has definitely provided more than a few facepalm moments, though.

 

That's good to hear. I'm considering doing a PhD up there. Nice having an R1 school in the metro area. 

[Phil]

Don't sting jets propagate pretty fast, by their nature? I'm not too familiar with the mesoscale dynamics of the '07 storm, but it sounds like more of a barrier jet situation as dewey mentioned earlier. The fact that stronger winds + heavier rain was concentrated on the western side of the Willamette valley also supports a barrier jet idea, from what I understand...

I assume those can mean the same thing, or arise via similar conduits? The latter is a result of inverted moisture gradients, often in warm seclusion situations. I haven’t heard the term “barrier jet” used in the literature I’ve read, but I’m not a mesoscale guy either, so what do I know?

[Phil]

The following was said in the article:

 

"The Pacific blob of warm water creates a high-pressure period, which changes the direction of the Pacific Jet Stream. That causes warmer weather, and in the case of California’s Ridiculously Resilient Ridge, prevented normal winter storms from making landfall where they’re most needed."

 

But this is false. The blob did not cause the persistent ridging. Rather, the persistent ridging caused the blob. Sure, the blob was around during the winter of 2014/2015 but that was during a high solar and strong El Nino period, which more than likely resulted in the persistent ridging.

Exactly. High solar/+PMM/broad IPWP forced the blob remotely through convective/eddy pathways.

[Phil]

One of my professors mentioned the blob today. He said, “What is it outside right now? About 60 degrees. That’s warm. If it weren’t for the blob it would be colder right now.”

 

Sounds made up, but sadly it’s true. This guy has his doctorate too.

I’m sure these guys are wicked smart, but so many of them are hopelessly buried in these overly-parameterized closed-system computer models, and lack a thorough, comprehensive understanding of energy budgets and the laws of physics.

 

This stuff is so much more multidimensional than many folks realize, IMO.

[Phil]