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October 14 Plains/MW Snow Potential

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#1
LNK_Weather

Posted 12 October 2018 - 07:28 AM

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Okay. I'll bite. The models are coming to a consensus that someone will see snow on Sunday, and someone may see >4". Now, it is far from a sure thing. Models continue to be all over the place, but most have favored North Central KS for highest amounts.

 

00Z Euro

Attached File  snowfall_total_accum_10to1_CONUS_hr102.png   96.57KB   0 downloads

 

00Z CMC is the least bullish with the amounts, but the most bullish with the Northerly extent of the snowfall.

Attached File  snowfall_total_accum_10to1_NCCONUS_hr069.png   104.07KB   0 downloads

 

12Z NAM

Attached File  snowfall_total_accum_10to1_NCCONUS_hr084.png   275.41KB   0 downloads


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>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 7.1"             Coldest Low: 7*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#2
CentralNebWeather

Posted 12 October 2018 - 07:43 AM

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Still looks like fairly large variability between these models.  


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#3
jaster220

Posted 12 October 2018 - 08:05 AM

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@LNKwx

 

NAM-Euro for the win?? NWS going south route so far..



#4
LNK_Weather

Posted 12 October 2018 - 08:57 AM

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@LNKwx

 

NAM-Euro for the win?? NWS going south route so far..

OAX is just now putting a snow mention in the point click.


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>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 7.1"             Coldest Low: 7*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#5
LNK_Weather

Posted 12 October 2018 - 09:00 AM

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12Z GFS is farther West, putting Eastern IA peoples out of luck & putting the jack zone in NW KS.

Attached Files


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 7.1"             Coldest Low: 7*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#6
LNK_Weather

Posted 12 October 2018 - 09:39 AM

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EPS mean for here is 2".


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 7.1"             Coldest Low: 7*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#7
jaster220

Posted 12 October 2018 - 09:43 AM

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OAX is just now putting a snow mention in the point click.

 

I mis-spoke a tad. NOAA going with legit snow threat only far SW KS but that's their Sunday map. As-is tho, would project on the southern edge of other guidance you've posted above if I'm reading it correctly.

 

Attached File  20181012 NOAA Sun 14th wx map.gif   180.68KB   0 downloads



#8
LNK_Weather

Posted 12 October 2018 - 09:49 AM

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I mis-spoke a tad. NOAA going with legit snow threat only far SW KS but that's their Sunday map. As-is tho, would project on the southern edge of other guidance you've posted above if I'm reading it correctly.

 

attachicon.gif20181012 NOAA Sun 14th wx map.gif

They seem to be putting a lot of faith in GFS/earlier NAM runs.


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 7.1"             Coldest Low: 7*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#9
CentralNebWeather

Posted 12 October 2018 - 10:28 AM

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12Z GFS is farther West, putting Eastern IA peoples out of luck & putting the jack zone in NW KS.

This would put me in the game for a little bit of snow.  Still looks like more south according to GFS.



#10
bud2380

Posted 12 October 2018 - 11:18 AM

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12z Euro.

 

Attached File  Capture.PNG   165.47KB   0 downloads



#11
CentralNebWeather

Posted 12 October 2018 - 11:42 AM

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One local forecast has me now receiving 1-4”.
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#12
bud2380

Posted 12 October 2018 - 12:07 PM

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12z ICON covers the entire state of NE with at least some accumulating snow.

 

 

icon_asnow_ncus_22.png


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#13
LNK_Weather

Posted 12 October 2018 - 12:35 PM

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As long as we can get measurable snow at the airport I'm happy as a clam.


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>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 7.1"             Coldest Low: 7*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#14
bud2380

Posted 12 October 2018 - 12:55 PM

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18z NAM

 

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png



#15
OKwx2k4

Posted 12 October 2018 - 03:14 PM

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All I can say is, I hope you all get plenty of snow.
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#16
james1976

Posted 12 October 2018 - 03:55 PM

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Some definite north and some definite south camps. Cold push seems pretty legit so Id bet on more south right now. If I can can score some flakes Ill be stoked!



#17
jaster220

Posted 12 October 2018 - 07:20 PM

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18z NAM

 

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

Certainly have to lean Kuchera with a shoulder season event like this. Looks like a fairly narrow band of legit snow surrounded by grass-topper car-topper stuff. Hopefully somebody in here jackpots.



#18
LNK_Weather

Posted 12 October 2018 - 07:38 PM

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Amounts are dying on pretty much every model. It was fun while it lasted, folks.


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 7.1"             Coldest Low: 7*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#19
CentralNebWeather

Posted 12 October 2018 - 07:51 PM

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The 12km NAM 0z has 8 inches the county south of me and 4-6” for me. We’ll see.
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#20
jaster220

Posted 12 October 2018 - 08:18 PM

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Really? Must we? :rolleyes: We can't undo history but we can make things unpronounceable for most, lol

 

"Utqiagvik, formerly known as Barrow, is on the northernmost tip of Alaska."

 

Glad all the native names around SMI like Genesee, Shiawasee, and Newaygo (just to name a few) are easy enough for us of Euro decent to pronounce



#21
OKwx2k4

Posted 12 October 2018 - 10:46 PM

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Really? Must we? :rolleyes: We can't undo history but we can make things unpronounceable for most, lol

"Utqiagvik, formerly known as Barrow, is on the northernmost tip of Alaska."

Glad all the native names around SMI like Genesee, Shiawasee, and Newaygo (just to name a few) are easy enough for us of Euro decent to pronounce

:lol: You make a pretty comical point there. The lower 48 Natives, like down here also, must never have been cold enough to make a sound like whatever noise "Utqiagvik" is. Probably means "My mouth is frozen". :lol:

I mean "Tahlequah" (Oklahoma) is a strange word but anyone who has read/watched and remembered "Where The Red Fern Grows", has heard that word and can say it though.
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#22
Tom

Posted 13 October 2018 - 02:11 AM

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@ CentralNeb, should be close for your first measurable snowfall of the season...

 

Tab2FileL.png?75ebc77c7a61eabd6adea7cdc7


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#23
Tom

Posted 13 October 2018 - 02:22 AM

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The 00z Euro paints a weenie band into the LNK/OMA area with close to 2-3" of snow.  Jackpot zone seems to be NW KS area with 4-6", isolated 6-8" totals??


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#24
CentralNebWeather

Posted 13 October 2018 - 02:48 AM

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The 00z Euro paints a weenie band into the LNK/OMA area with close to 2-3" of snow.  Jackpot zone seems to be NW KS area with 4-6", isolated 6-8" totals??

Winter Weather Advisory 2 counties south of me.  I am hoping for a couple of wet, slushy inches just to say I have seen snow this early season.  Might get that last minute shift north.  NWS Hastings still not 100% sure where the heaviest band sets up.


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#25
jaster220

Posted 13 October 2018 - 04:17 AM

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:lol: You make a pretty comical point there. The lower 48 Natives, like down here also, must never have been cold enough to make a sound like whatever noise "Utqiagvik" is. Probably means "My mouth is frozen". :lol:

I mean "Tahlequah" (Oklahoma) is a strange word but anyone who has read/watched and remembered "Where The Red Fern Grows", has heard that word and can say it though.

 

That's funny! :lol:

 

Heck, I'd rather see things re-named in Japanese. They've got some cool names like Fujita, Tsunami, & Sushi for example. It all started with the renaming of Mt. McKinley, but this is like :huh:



#26
Tom

Posted 13 October 2018 - 06:10 AM

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@ LNKwx, you threw in the towel way to soon the other day. 12z NAM trending towards the Euro bud.
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#27
Tom

Posted 13 October 2018 - 06:26 AM

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12z NAM...IA peeps back in the game as well as into WI???

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png


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#28
LNK_Weather

Posted 13 October 2018 - 06:47 AM

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@ LNKwx, you threw in the towel way to soon the other day. 12z NAM trending towards the Euro bud.


Reverse psychology. I use it a lot if you haven't noticed.
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>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 7.1"             Coldest Low: 7*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#29
james1976

Posted 13 October 2018 - 08:39 AM

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Local mets now talking rain/snow mix here. Would be awesome to see some wet flakes sticking to the deck atleast!



#30
snowstorm83

Posted 13 October 2018 - 11:59 AM

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Welp Nebraska is 0-6 for the first time ever, so now let's try to get some snow tomorrow. 12z suite wasn't bad and 18z nam looks juicy so far. 


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#31
LNK_Weather

Posted 13 October 2018 - 12:16 PM

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Euro. Ratios will be very d**n close to 1:1 so take this for a grain of salt.

Attached Files


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>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 7.1"             Coldest Low: 7*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#32
LNK_Weather

Posted 13 October 2018 - 12:20 PM

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Ehhhhhhhhh that was not a good NAM run. Keeps it as rain for a long time so we only get a couple hours of solid snowfall. And you know with where temperatures will be tomorrow a couple hours of solid snowfall is not enough.


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 7.1"             Coldest Low: 7*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#33
OKwx2k4

Posted 13 October 2018 - 12:26 PM

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Euro. Ratios will be very d**n close to 1:1 so take this for a grain of salt.


How much is a sub to true weather? I like those maps.

#34
LNK_Weather

Posted 13 October 2018 - 12:44 PM

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How much is a sub to true weather? I like those maps.

Half as much as WxBell. $12.99/month. I cancelled wxbell last week cuz their rate is insane and got truewx. It lacks a couple things I liked about wxbell, such as easy to read height maps, 50 panel ensembles, and kuchera maps, but other than that I don't mind it.


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>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 7.1"             Coldest Low: 7*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#35
LNK_Weather

Posted 13 October 2018 - 02:37 PM

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Ptype is starting to become an issue. The rain/snow line is now one county to the Southeast of here on the RAP. 


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 7.1"             Coldest Low: 7*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#36
St Paul Storm

Posted 13 October 2018 - 03:31 PM

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18z NAM with accumulating snow even up this way now. Lol. Another year, same stupid model.

#37
CentralNebWeather

Posted 13 October 2018 - 03:37 PM

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NWS Hastings really backing down on amounts, maybe only 2” in advisory and very little in other places. Too warm and during the day will limit snow from accumulating in their opinion.

#38
St Paul Storm

Posted 13 October 2018 - 03:38 PM

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Good luck to you all down south. Any flakes are good flakes in mid October.
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#39
LNK_Weather

Posted 13 October 2018 - 03:44 PM

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NWS Hastings really backing down on amounts, maybe only 2” in advisory and very little in other places. Too warm and during the day will limit snow from accumulating in their opinion.

The fact that it's during the day shouldn't make much of a difference accumulations-wise. Temps would be the same during the day or night in this case, and sun angle isn't a big issue in mid-October.


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 7.1"             Coldest Low: 7*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#40
LNK_Weather

Posted 13 October 2018 - 03:47 PM

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RGEM with 3" on a 10:1 ratio. If only it were cold enough for anything even close to 10:1.


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 7.1"             Coldest Low: 7*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#41
OKwx2k4

Posted 13 October 2018 - 03:54 PM

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Half as much as WxBell. $12.99/month. I cancelled wxbell last week cuz their rate is insane and got truewx. It lacks a couple things I liked about wxbell, such as easy to read height maps, 50 panel ensembles, and kuchera maps, but other than that I don't mind it.


Weighing the options. Looking like I'm gonna need at least 6 months worth of models this year. Gonna be a long season.
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#42
CentralNebWeather

Posted 13 October 2018 - 04:09 PM

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The fact that it's during the day shouldn't make much of a difference accumulations-wise. Temps would be the same during the day or night in this case, and sun angle isn't a big issue in mid-October.

Here is what NWS Hastings said, just passing on information.

“These early season events are always shaky. The warmth of the
ground/pavement is a huge wildcard...and this event occurring
during the day doesn't help. Even with clds limiting insolation
..ground-based objects can still absorb some of that resulting
in a lot of melting on contact.”

#43
LNK_Weather

Posted 13 October 2018 - 04:23 PM

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Here is what NWS Hastings said, just passing on information.

“These early season events are always shaky. The warmth of the
ground/pavement is a huge wildcard...and this event occurring
during the day doesn't help. Even with clds limiting insolation
..ground-based objects can still absorb some of that resulting
in a lot of melting on contact.”

I'm thinking the warm ground temps should be helped a lot by the rain that is supposed to fall before the onset of the snow. That will help to cool it down to the point where snow can accumulate. I am worried about air temperatures though.


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 7.1"             Coldest Low: 7*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#44
CentralNebWeather

Posted 13 October 2018 - 04:27 PM

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I'm thinking the warm ground temps should be helped a lot by the rain that is supposed to fall before the onset of the snow. That will help to cool it down to the point where snow can accumulate. I am worried about air temperatures though.


Very good points. Will be interesting to see if and where the heavy snow band occurs.

#45
CentralNebWeather

Posted 13 October 2018 - 05:27 PM

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Temps have dropped 16 degrees in the last 2 hours with about.25” of rain. Snow forecasted to fall around 6 am lasting through the noon hour.

#46
LNK_Weather

Posted 13 October 2018 - 05:42 PM

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I'm saying we end up with 0.5-1" here. If this were in January it'd easily be 3-4" but alas it's October. Rate of snowfall looks good to begin and I think that will start up accumulations but the ratios are not hot looking.


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>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 7.1"             Coldest Low: 7*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#47
CentralNebWeather

Posted 13 October 2018 - 05:49 PM

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I'm saying we end up with 0.5-1" here. If this were in January it'd easily be 3-4" but alas it's October. Rate of snowfall looks good to begin and I think that will start up accumulations but the ratios are not hot looking.


Sounds about right. I may get a slushy inch on the grass.

#48
snowstorm83

Posted 13 October 2018 - 06:10 PM

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nam_3hr_snow_acc_mc_11.png

NAM with a 4-6" bullseye near Lincoln haha. 10:1 ratios of course. 



#49
jcwxguy

Posted 13 October 2018 - 06:10 PM

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namconus_asnow_ncus_12.png

#50
Andrew NE

Posted 13 October 2018 - 06:13 PM

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These early season snows are always a crap shoot with amounts and temps. 0z NAM is solid. This will be a good one down the road if it cycles back around when ratios would be better as LNK said.