October 14 Plains/MW Snow Potential

[OKwx2k4]

Half as much as WxBell. $12.99/month. I cancelled wxbell last week cuz their rate is insane and got truewx. It lacks a couple things I liked about wxbell, such as easy to read height maps, 50 panel ensembles, and kuchera maps, but other than that I don't mind it.

Weighing the options. Looking like I'm gonna need at least 6 months worth of models this year. Gonna be a long season.

[CentralNebWeather]

The fact that it's during the day shouldn't make much of a difference accumulations-wise. Temps would be the same during the day or night in this case, and sun angle isn't a big issue in mid-October.

Here is what NWS Hastings said, just passing on information.

 

“These early season events are always shaky. The warmth of the

ground/pavement is a huge wildcard...and this event occurring

during the day doesn't help. Even with clds limiting insolation

..ground-based objects can still absorb some of that resulting

in a lot of melting on contact.”

[Minny_Weather]

Here is what NWS Hastings said, just passing on information.

 

“These early season events are always shaky. The warmth of the

ground/pavement is a huge wildcard...and this event occurring

during the day doesn't help. Even with clds limiting insolation

..ground-based objects can still absorb some of that resulting

in a lot of melting on contact.”

I'm thinking the warm ground temps should be helped a lot by the rain that is supposed to fall before the onset of the snow. That will help to cool it down to the point where snow can accumulate. I am worried about air temperatures though.

[CentralNebWeather]

I'm thinking the warm ground temps should be helped a lot by the rain that is supposed to fall before the onset of the snow. That will help to cool it down to the point where snow can accumulate. I am worried about air temperatures though.

Very good points. Will be interesting to see if and where the heavy snow band occurs.

[CentralNebWeather]

Temps have dropped 16 degrees in the last 2 hours with about.25” of rain. Snow forecasted to fall around 6 am lasting through the noon hour.

[Minny_Weather]

I'm saying we end up with 0.5-1" here. If this were in January it'd easily be 3-4" but alas it's October. Rate of snowfall looks good to begin and I think that will start up accumulations but the ratios are not hot looking.

[CentralNebWeather]

I'm saying we end up with 0.5-1" here. If this were in January it'd easily be 3-4" but alas it's October. Rate of snowfall looks good to begin and I think that will start up accumulations but the ratios are not hot looking.

Sounds about right. I may get a slushy inch on the grass.

[snowstorm83]

http://models.weatherbell.com/nam/2018101400/mc/nam_3hr_snow_acc_mc_11.png

NAM with a 4-6" bullseye near Lincoln haha. 10:1 ratios of course. 

[jcwxguy]

[Andrew NE]

These early season snows are always a crap shoot with amounts and temps. 0z NAM is solid. This will be a good one down the road if it cycles back around when ratios would be better as LNK said.

[jcwxguy]

Nam 3k

 

[Minny_Weather]

Local mets are still following the notion that the far Southeast corner of the state will get the highest totals. I wonder if they've even looked at models today.

 

Unrelated, but HRRR looks to be advertising a 4:1 ratio tomorrow. Yowza.

[Minny_Weather]

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT. 37.0*F.

[Minny_Weather]

I'm getting rather nervous. Even with the strong North wind, the temperature is basically stuck at 37 and it's looking like the heaviest precip will fall as rain. Not good.

[Minny_Weather]

Sole ptype here is now sleet. In the past 90 minutes, the temperature has not deviated more than 0.2 degrees from 37*F. Yeah this is nerve-racking. I think the precip was too progressive and now it appears that we may be lucky if we see any snow accumulation at all.

[CentralNebWeather]

I have 1/2 mile visibility and snow. Temp at 29 but streets are just wet. Maybe less than an inch on grasses and roofs. Back edge of snow is only 2 counties west of me. No biggie, at least I saw some snow. Hopefully this is a pattern in winter like we have had the last few weeks.

[St Paul Storm]

Steady light snow falling here in St Paul. Temp 36F. I love mowing the grass in the snow.

[Minny_Weather]

40 dbZ readings are headed my way. We're at 36.7*F now. Still nervous as hell. Ptype is back to rain here as we sit under some 25dbZ readings.

 

EDIT @ 8:36: Not worth a new post but it's back to sleet.

[Minny_Weather]

A few flakes are now mixing in with the heavy sleet. This is gonna be epic when/if it changes to all snow. 36.0*F.

[centralweather44]

Snow northeast of Lincoln about 10 miles. Been snow here since a little before 8:00. Nothing sticking, not even to the grass. Not thinking we will see accumulation with ground temps setting at 52-54 degrees but either way cool to see in october.

[Minny_Weather]

Snow northeast of Lincoln about 10 miles. Been snow here since a little before 8:00. Nothing sticking, not even to the grass. Not thinking we will see accumulation with ground temps setting at 52-54 degrees but none the less cool to see in october.

Ground temps shouldn't be much of a problem with the rate and the fact that we've had rain to cool the ground down. Thinking grass and roof accumulations are likely. Ratios are the only negative factor here.

 

Another thing I am nervous about is being slotted. There's a nice big fat donut hole that's looking to target the Southern part of the county, but those tend to turn towards here in SE Lincoln cuz lol why not. If that comes here then yeah there probably won't be accumulations.

 

Temps are still falling rather rapidly. Down to 35.6*F here.

[Bryan1117]

First snowflakes of the season flying in Omaha! Sitting at 34.7 degrees currently in my backyard.

[Minny_Weather]

The slot is moving towards here. f***** s**t.

 

Ptype has changed to all snow.

 

9:06 EDIT: Accumulation is starting on North-facing roofs.

[St Paul Storm]

Really coming down here. Now accumulating on the bushes and on the rooftops. This will likely be recorded as a measureable snowfall, about 3 weeks earlier than the average date.

[Minny_Weather]

Our average first measurable snow here is November 17. Today will likely mark the 5th earliest measurable snowfall on record @ KLNK.

[Tom]

Steady light snow falling here in St Paul. Temp 36F. I love mowing the grass in the snow.

I love your Sunday morning humor!     Congrats NE posters on the days snow event.

[Minny_Weather]

Dry air on Radar is football-shaped now and growing in sie as it comes towards here. Sigh.

[St Paul Storm]

Fatty flakes. Legit snow now accumulating on grassy areas. Guess I won’t be mowing today after all. Sigh.

 

Temp down to 33F

[Minny_Weather]

Biggest flakes I have ever seen in my life are falling now. Looks like a bunch of cotton balls falling outside. Remarkable. Dusting on the grass now. If only it were December. Dry air is coming at us fast. 33.8*F.

[Minny_Weather]

Here's a view from the traffic camera close to the airport. They're getting nailed up there.

[St Paul Storm]

About 0.5” of slush on the deck and walkway.

[Minny_Weather]

About 0.3" of slush on elevated surfaces here. If it were December or January it'd easily be 2-3". Light snow should continue for a couple more hours but I'm not expecting any additional accumulations.

[james1976]

Light rain and windy here. Temp has fallen from 41 to 39 in the past hour.

[centralweather44]

North of Lincoln grass completely covered and concrete starting to get covered in the last 10-15 mins. Crazy rates of snow. Probably 1/4-1/2 mile visibilities. If I knew how to post photos on here I would

[gabel23]

I’m under an intense band at the moment. The flakes were huge here also, snow is sticking on the grass and my tomato plants!

[Bryan1117]

Coming down pretty hard in Omaha right now, snow now sticking on the grass and especially on elevated surfaces.

 

Went into church this morning with light snow flurries falling and nothing sticking, to now most everything has a thin coating of snow on it outside of the concrete surfaces.

[Hawkeye]

Here's the Creighton University cam in Omaha.  It's really coming down at the moment.

 

http://typo3.creighton.edu/?id=68712

[james1976]

Raining harder and temp has fallen to 38!

[gabel23]

It’s just ripping right now! Visibility down to a half mile and I’m up to 2” from my estimation. This thing over performed for me for sure! I can’t figure out why my pics are sideways but you get the idea!

[james1976]

It’s just ripping right now! Visibility down to a half mile and I’m up to 2” from my estimation. This thing over performed for me for sure!

That is awesome stuff!