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November 2018 Observations and Discussion

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#1
Tom

Posted 26 October 2018 - 04:09 AM

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As we are about to finish up one of the more extreme wx patterns during any October in history across the CONUS, we set are sights on the month of November which will continue to provide us more details of the new developing cyclical pattern. Folks, I believe that once this month is over, there will probably be numerous locations that score their first 1"+ of snowfall. After analyzing the Euro Weeklies from last night, they pretty much lock in a troughy look across our entire sub, except for maybe places in the northern Plains towards the middle of the month. Overall, I'm encouraged to see normal, to sub normal temps and many chances of precip throughout the month. Any pull back that comes after the first 10 days or so of the month, bring us back towards seasonal temps. If that's the case, this may solidify a very cold winter forthcoming.

Let's dive into to what will be an active opening week or so of November....

Both GEFS/EPS are indicating a what looks to be a storm system that wants to develop somewhere near the Arklatex region and track NE into the OV/Lower Lakes region around the 1st of the month...


gfs-ens_mslpaNorm_us_27.png

ecmwf-ens_mslpaNorm_us_8.png



The 00z EPS is suggesting a secondary piece coming out of the deep gulf into the OV region a couple days later....boy, these maps are intriguing showing the potential for Banana HP's which encourage blocking and slower/stronger storms.

ecmwf-ens_mslpaNorm_us_10.png




Last, but not least, yet another storm comes out of the Rockies during the 7th/8th period and tracks almost west/east under a big Canadian blocking pattern through the Plains/MW region. Overall, the EPS has the right idea of more extensive blocking in Canada when comparing it to the GEFS/GEPS.
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#2
Tom

Posted 26 October 2018 - 04:14 AM

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CFSv2 has immensely flipped towards locking in a central CONUS trough-like pattern with a solid SW Flow, SE/EC ridge and a big time NE PAC ridge.  I can't imagine a better look than this.  Lock it in!

 

 

CFSv2.z700.20181026.201811.gif

 

 

While temps are not overly cold, I still like the idea and loaded amounts of precip...

 

summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201811.gif

 

summaryCFSv2.NaPrec.201811.gif


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#3
GDR

Posted 26 October 2018 - 04:16 AM

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Man the 45 day control for snowfall looks amazing let’s hope it’s at least half right!
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#4
Tom

Posted 26 October 2018 - 04:38 AM

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Euro Weeklies precip anomalies through Thanksgiving....

 

Dqb06JFUwAAmyBO.jpg


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#5
Tom

Posted 26 October 2018 - 04:40 AM

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Man the 45 day control for snowfall looks amazing let’s hope it’s at least half right!

Are you using Weather Models for those maps?  If so, where can I find it?  I'm trying to get used to this site.



#6
GDR

Posted 26 October 2018 - 05:05 AM

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Attached File  A96E53A3-3CD9-4047-862C-396C392C79C8.png   4.39MB   8 downloads

#7
GDR

Posted 26 October 2018 - 05:06 AM

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That would be awesome!

#8
LNK_Weather

Posted 26 October 2018 - 06:13 AM

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A96E53A3-3CD9-4047-862C-396C392C79C8.png


Is this the 45 day control you mentioned earlier?

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 7.1"             Coldest Low: 7*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#9
GDR

Posted 26 October 2018 - 07:01 AM

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Is this the 45 day control you mentioned earlier?

yeah

#10
Illinois_WX

Posted 26 October 2018 - 07:06 AM

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yeah

 

Can you post a screenshot including Chicago? It looks amazing from what I can see there already! 


LINCOLN NEBRASKA SNOW TOTALS:

 

 

13-14 : 0"

14-15: 0"

15-16" : 0"

16-17 : 0"

17-18 : Probably 10", so in other words, 0" ​ 5.5"

 

 

# of times it was too warm and ended up being 33 and rain during these years : 20

# of times the storm essentially turned into dust: 25

# of times the storm looked at Nebraska and was like "yeah, good joke" , then ran to Chicago: 50


#11
Tom

Posted 26 October 2018 - 08:29 AM

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Both CMC/GFS are spinning up a nice looking storm to open up the month.  I'm really digging where this pattern is heading.  Been a longgg time since I've seen maps like these!


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#12
Tony

Posted 26 October 2018 - 09:28 AM

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Thought I would chime in on this event as it has all the makings of a possible severe event on one end and a winter storm on the other. Abundant moisture showing up as well. Interesting storm brewing for next weekend which will be fun to monitor. Looking forward to tracking winter storms with this crew for the upcoming season. 

Attached Files


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#13
Tom

Posted 26 October 2018 - 11:47 AM

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Thought I would chime in on this event as it has all the makings of a possible severe event on one end and a winter storm on the other. Abundant moisture showing up as well. Interesting storm brewing for next weekend which will be fun to monitor. Looking forward to tracking winter storms with this crew for the upcoming season. 

Glad to see ya back Tony!  I got this feeling it will be a good year for us around these parts.  After 2 or 3 lousy seasons, this one has the potential to make up Bigly.  The storm system showing up the first few days of the month is interesting, although, the Euro is not really biting on it quite yet and is showing a different look.  

 

12z GEFS showing a PanHandle Hook type of track out of the TX/OK PanHandle region towards the lower lakes....tricky forecast later next week...

Attached Files



#14
Tom

Posted 26 October 2018 - 11:53 AM

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A couple days ago I commented on how warm the GEFS were in the Week 2 range, but it's 10mb forecast gave me a clue to look for cooler trends and all of a sudden they have flipped big time cold to open up November.  The Euro has been steadfast on this idea.  Today's 12z EPS is even colder with possible records and an uptick in snow across IA/WI/MN with that late week storm system next week.  There are still members showing snow potential across the central Plains/MW as well.

 

4 runs ago...

 

gfs-ens_T2maMean_us_11.png

 

vs today's...

 

gfs-ens_T2maMean_us_7.png


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#15
Tom

Posted 26 October 2018 - 12:12 PM

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Boy, the 12z EPS are cold and stormy during this first 7-10 days of the month with back to back storms on the horizon across the region.  Simply amazing and a fun pattern to track.  After looking at most of the 51 members off the 12z EPS, there are a lot more members picking up on the southern piece the GEFS are seeing and tracking it straight up towards the GL's/OV during the 1st-3rd of the month.



#16
Tom

Posted 26 October 2018 - 12:24 PM

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I took a look at the 12z EPS strat forecasts and by Day 10, it is suggesting a 180 flip from cold to warm as a possible mini strat warming event taking over the Pole.  If it is right, it'll be interesting to see how it develops as we move along this month bc that could be a precursor of  winter really taking over the pattern around Thanksgiving week or just beyond that time frame. 



#17
GDR

Posted 26 October 2018 - 03:04 PM

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Attached File  7E4BB036-A21A-4F6D-80AE-96009F00FF06.jpeg   142.23KB   1 downloads
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#18
Esquimalt

Posted 26 October 2018 - 03:15 PM

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Hi i'm from the western forums and live in Esquimalt, Canada.  What kind of weather would you expect in Ontario/Western Quebec from the 8th to the 15th of November?   Can we expect cold and snow, or warm and sunny, from what the euro weeklies and CFS say? 



#19
jaster220

Posted 26 October 2018 - 07:01 PM

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@ Tom

 

Stoked much?  :lol:

 

 

You beat me to all the sweet maps compadre. Now this is what I've been looking for. Yowza if these models have a clue from this range, eh? 


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#20
jaster220

Posted 26 October 2018 - 07:11 PM

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..meanwhile, GFS says (to The Mitt) "have I fantasy-bombed you lately?" :rolleyes:

 

Attached File  20181026 18Z gfs_precip_h300.png   154.88KB   6 downloads

 

 

 

 


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#21
Niko

Posted 26 October 2018 - 07:25 PM

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..meanwhile, GFS says (to The Mitt) "have I fantasy-bombed you lately?" :rolleyes:

 

attachicon.gif20181026 18Z gfs_precip_h300.png

WHOA!



#22
Tom

Posted 27 October 2018 - 03:08 AM

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Hi i'm from the western forums and live in Esquimalt, Canada.  What kind of weather would you expect in Ontario/Western Quebec from the 8th to the 15th of November?   Can we expect cold and snow, or warm and sunny, from what the euro weeklies and CFS say? 

Hello, thanks for visiting our sub and popping in.  I don't forsee any warmth while your visiting eastern Canada in 2 weeks.  The pattern looks troughy and quite chilly during that time frame. Might even see some snow while your there.


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#23
Tom

Posted 27 October 2018 - 03:17 AM

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@ Tom

 

Stoked much?  :lol:

 

 

You beat me to all the sweet maps compadre. Now this is what I've been looking for. Yowza if these models have a clue from this range, eh? 

Ya man, I'm really excited about what I'm seeing going forward.  It really does feel like we will finally enjoy an ol' fashioned winter.  I'm looking forward to this month bc before you know it, we'll be celebrating Thanksgiving and kicking off the holiday season!  


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#24
jaster220

Posted 27 October 2018 - 02:33 PM

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Ya man, I'm really excited about what I'm seeing going forward.  It really does feel like we will finally enjoy an ol' fashioned winter.  I'm looking forward to this month bc before you know it, we'll be celebrating Thanksgiving and kicking off the holiday season!  

 

I'm pretty geeked myself just with what's happened so far, and the better (best?) may be yet to come. I'm also trying to wrap-up my autumn to-do list asap in case we do suddenly flip to winter. Heck, even without snow cover, the frequent cold rainy wx combined with the shorter daylight is enough challenge already. Greenland's a serious icebox  :blink:


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#25
jaster220

Posted 27 October 2018 - 02:37 PM

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Last Saturday..

 

Attached File  20181020 9 pm radar snippit.JPG   50.99KB   0 downloads

 

This Saturday..

 

Attached File  20181027 5 pm radar snippit.JPG   19.38KB   0 downloads

 

Plus tomorrow's clipper = a pattern I approve of

 

:D


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#26
Niko

Posted 27 October 2018 - 02:39 PM

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The weather gets drastically colder by months end (November) w snows not outta the question.


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#27
jaster220

Posted 27 October 2018 - 02:40 PM

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WHOA!

 

Niko buddy, you be gettin some rain over there??  Looks like the double-barrelled storm has come together just in time to douse SEMI pretty good.


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#28
Tom

Posted 27 October 2018 - 02:45 PM

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I'm pretty geeked myself just with what's happened so far, and the better (best?) may be yet to come. I'm also trying to wrap-up my autumn to-do list asap in case we do suddenly flip to winter. Heck, even without snow cover, the frequent cold rainy wx combined with the shorter daylight is enough challenge already. Greenland's a serious icebox :blink:


I took advantage of today’s calm winds and raked the leaves 🍁 and dead plants, mowed the lawn extra short this year (that way you only need 1” or so of snow to cover the grass tips)...lol, and tomorrow’s strong winds should really blow a lot of the remaining leaves on my trees. As you said, the pattern setting up around here has been pleasant.
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#29
Niko

Posted 27 October 2018 - 02:48 PM

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Niko buddy, you be gettin some rain over there??  Looks like the double-barrelled storm has come together just in time to douse SEMI pretty good.

You bet...all day, on and off and a cold rain at that. If it was a month lata, this would have been a nice hit of snowfall, especially, like you mentioned above in your statement, its a double barreled low pressure area. I like the way these storm systems are coming together Jaster. Fun times ahead. Its only a matter of time b4 we get our first Winterstorm of the season.

 

How much rain IYBY?



#30
jaster220

Posted 27 October 2018 - 07:20 PM

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You bet...all day, on and off and a cold rain at that. If it was a month lata, this would have been a nice hit of snowfall, especially, like you mentioned above in your statement, its a double barreled low pressure area. I like the way these storm systems are coming together Jaster. Fun times ahead. Its only a matter of time b4 we get our first Winterstorm of the season.

 

How much rain IYBY?

 

Back here in Marshall, we only had a few periods of legit rain and the ASOS unit at our little airport appears to have broken so it's not been reporting the actual amounts during those 3 rainy times. You can see via radar loop that this system did much better east of here by your area, though we may due well with the clipper tomorrow into Monday. This would be an awesome period were it winter. Can't  wait. While Detroit region got smashed with last December's mega-clipper, we only had 4" over this way. I'd certainly welcome anything bigger like what that storm did for yby ;)



#31
Tom

Posted 28 October 2018 - 04:00 AM

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If the 00z EPS is right, the ensemble snow maps I'm seeing literally are laying the foundation for cold to continue to brew on our continent.  The amount of real estate covered with snow through the first 10 days of this month extends across S Canada from B.C. all the way east into S Ontario/Quebec.  It looks more like a Dec 1st snow cover map and this snow creeps into the northern Plains/Dakotas/Upper MW as well.  Since Sept, seemingly everything in the world of wx is coming about a month in advance.  To be able to witness all of this happening in this day and age is something spectacular.  Some members on here are poised to get hit hard by the middle of the month.  Fun times ahead!


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#32
jaster220

Posted 28 October 2018 - 06:56 AM

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If the 00z EPS is right, the ensemble snow maps I'm seeing literally are laying the foundation for cold to continue to brew on our continent.  The amount of real estate covered with snow through the first 10 days of this month extends across S Canada from B.C. all the way east into S Ontario/Quebec.  It looks more like a Dec 1st snow cover map and this snow creeps into the northern Plains/Dakotas/Upper MW as well.  Since Sept, seemingly everything in the world of wx is coming about a month in advance.  To be able to witness all of this happening in this day and age is something spectacular.  Some members on here are poised to get hit hard by the middle of the month.  Fun times ahead!

 

Indeed. While SMI has had snowier Oct's a few times, November's the month when it can mean true winter-like conditions. Considering that 12" hit BC on Nov 2nd of '66 the entire month has potential. However, mostly it's the 2nd half that opens a window here if we're going to get an early start to the snow season. I wish I had time to fully research all significant snow around here during latter Nov. My personal fave is the deer season bliz of 16-18th of '89 with it's ferocious winds. That one was a true Mitt Hit and wasn't shared with too many other states.

 

Attached File  19891118_072_total.png   200.34KB   0 downloads


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#33
jaster220

Posted 28 October 2018 - 07:20 AM

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Attached File  yikes.gif   484bytes   0 downloads   What a pattern. Over the next 2 wks, the GFS reloads OK with systems and fires away at the MW/GL's. This would be wild in winter.

 

Attached File  20181028 6Z gfs_Oct30.png   164.99KB   1 downloads

Attached File  20181028 6Z gfs_Nov04.png   179.08KB   1 downloads

Attached File  20181028 6Z gfs_Nov07.png   187.95KB   1 downloads

Attached File  20181028 6Z gfs_Nov13.png   167.24KB   2 downloads

 

 



#34
Niko

Posted 28 October 2018 - 07:24 AM

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attachicon.gifyikes.gif   What a pattern. Over the next 2 wks, the GFS reloads OK with systems and fires away at the MW/GL's. This would be wild in winter.

 

attachicon.gif20181028 6Z gfs_Oct30.png

attachicon.gif20181028 6Z gfs_Nov04.png

attachicon.gif20181028 6Z gfs_Nov07.png

attachicon.gif20181028 6Z gfs_Nov13.png

That type of track looks as good as it can get for Winterstorms come Winter, or even late Autumn.


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#35
Niko

Posted 28 October 2018 - 07:27 AM

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Back here in Marshall, we only had a few periods of legit rain and the ASOS unit at our little airport appears to have broken so it's not been reporting the actual amounts during those 3 rainy times. You can see via radar loop that this system did much better east of here by your area, though we may due well with the clipper tomorrow into Monday. This would be an awesome period were it winter. Can't  wait. While Detroit region got smashed with last December's mega-clipper, we only had 4" over this way. I'd certainly welcome anything bigger like what that storm did for yby ;)

:P ;)

 

Last December here like you mentioned above was a crazy "Clipper ride" in SEMI. It was wild. I lost count of how many snow type systems we had IMBY. Not huge amounts, but they added up. Dang! :blink:


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#36
Tom

Posted 28 October 2018 - 08:49 AM

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By this time next week, clocks will have been set back an hour and you all know what that means, models come in an hour earlier!  Besides that, it'll be well-timed bc the pattern is about to become loaded with storms across our board.


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#37
james1976

Posted 28 October 2018 - 10:01 AM

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I'm in Peoria all weekend. Haven't been able to keep up much in here. Dang it's windy out though!

#38
OKwx2k4

Posted 28 October 2018 - 11:54 AM

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yikes.gif What a pattern. Over the next 2 wks, the GFS reloads OK with systems and fires away at the MW/GL's. This would be wild in winter.

20181028 6Z gfs_Oct30.png
20181028 6Z gfs_Nov04.png
20181028 6Z gfs_Nov07.png
20181028 6Z gfs_Nov13.png


This is an awesome pattern with a few tweaks. Crazy.
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#39
OKwx2k4

Posted 28 October 2018 - 12:58 PM

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By this time next week, clocks will have been set back an hour and you all know what that means, models come in an hour earlier! Besides that, it'll be well-timed bc the pattern is about to become loaded with storms across our board.



Yes. Going to enjoy this last warm, breezy and long evening of the year. It's been a wonderful 1st half of fall. I'm ready to get this last half rockin and rollin.
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#40
Niko

Posted 28 October 2018 - 01:49 PM

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Here ya go OKwx2k4......get ready....

 

http://www.news9.com...eather-forecast

 

Edit: Hopefully your storms will inundate my area. ;)


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#41
Esquimalt

Posted 28 October 2018 - 02:53 PM

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There's been a definite trend on the last few GFS runs towards downplaying the cold in the first and second week of November out towards Michigan and Ontario.  Has the EPS flipped as well, or are there still strong cold signs? 



#42
Tom

Posted 28 October 2018 - 03:12 PM

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There's been a definite trend on the last few GFS runs towards downplaying the cold in the first and second week of November out towards Michigan and Ontario. Has the EPS flipped as well, or are there still strong cold signs?


Not at all, it’s even gotten colder for Week 2, esp after the 7th post storm potential.
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#43
Andie

Posted 28 October 2018 - 04:59 PM

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This is an awesome pattern with a few tweaks. Crazy.


Things will begin to get interesting.
I better get that yard work done!

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.


#44
jaster220

Posted 28 October 2018 - 05:50 PM

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There's been a definite trend on the last few GFS runs towards downplaying the cold in the first and second week of November out towards Michigan and Ontario.  Has the EPS flipped as well, or are there still strong cold signs? 

 

Not at all, it’s even gotten colder for Week 2, esp after the 7th post storm potential.

 

JB's Sat Summary showed clearly that the GFS has major issues with 2m temps. He showed side-by-side comparisons of the Euro's (which he says is doing a great job with the cold btw) forecast at 500mb, 850mb temps, and 2m temps. Then he showed the same (3) maps off of the GFS and the first two aligned very well, but the 2m temps were wacked. It's either a warm bias (known to exist at d10+ range) or they tweaked the software to correct last winter's shameful over-playing of cold, and went too far with it in the opposite direction. He didn't say which he thought was the cause, but those are my two hunches.

 

To me it means that the GFS may well be in "catch-up mode" precip type when it comes to these marginal profile storms. For instance a storm ten days out may look like a total rainer on the GFS, then you get to 120 hrs and it begins to look colder and snowier.



#45
Esquimalt

Posted 28 October 2018 - 05:58 PM

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JB's Sat Summary showed clearly that the GFS has major issues with 2m temps. He showed side-by-side comparisons of the Euro's (which he says is doing a great job with the cold btw) forecast at 500mb, 850mb temps, and 2m temps. Then he showed the same (3) maps off of the GFS and the first two aligned very well, but the 2m temps were wacked. It's either a warm bias (known to exist at d10+ range) or they tweaked the software to correct last winter's shameful over-playing of cold, and went too far with it in the opposite direction. He didn't say which he thought was the cause, but those are my two hunches.

To me it means that the GFS may well be in "catch-up mode" precip type when it comes to these marginal profile storms. For instance a storm ten days out may look like a total rainer on the GFS, then you get to 120 hrs and it begins to look colder and snowier.


Thanks for your answer. But that’s Joe Bastardi, who has a known cold bias. Can we trust him on these issues?

#46
jaster220

Posted 28 October 2018 - 06:01 PM

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Here ya go OKwx2k4......get ready....

 

http://www.news9.com...eather-forecast

 

Edit: Hopefully your storms will inundate my area. ;)

 

Very well done prediction. Hits about every key contributor and sums it up to what should be a fantastic and quite potentially historic season for that region. I like that he paints the proper Modoki Nino moisture pattern as well with the GL's being above normal, in contrast to several of the models and NOAA's outlook.



#47
jaster220

Posted 28 October 2018 - 06:09 PM

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Thanks for your answer. But that’s Joe Bastardi, who has a known cold bias. Can we trust him on these issues?

 

He does like his cold, but this was a simple case of comparing (with actual maps) the two models and what they showed. There's really zero room for bias in that case. Basically, his point was that the GFS's warmer 2m temps were at odds with it's own 500 & 850 mb counterparts. He didn't even say that he thought it was going to be colder (which would be his bias showing thru, lol) but he felt that the Euro has done much better with the ongoing cold regime.


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#48
Esquimalt

Posted 28 October 2018 - 06:11 PM

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He does like his cold, but this was a simple case of comparing (with actual maps) the two models and what they showed. There's really zero room for bias in that case. Basically, his point was that the GFS's warmer 2m temps were at odds with it's own 500 & 850 mb counterparts. He didn't even say that he thought it was going to be colder (which would be his bias showing thru, lol) but he felt that the Euro has done much better with the ongoing cold regime.


Okay fair. What is the EPS saying for the day 10 to 15 mean anomaly now? That is what I follow often for my temps that are a couple of weeks off.

#49
jaster220

Posted 28 October 2018 - 06:20 PM

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Tom or somebody with a current subscription could better answer that. I may sign up for a pay site with the looming winter, otherwise my focus is usually 120 hrs or less. I will look at the longer range maps, if only to make my tongue-in-cheek posts on fantasy storms, etc..


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#50
Tom

Posted 28 October 2018 - 06:31 PM

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Okay fair. What is the EPS saying for the day 10 to 15 mean anomaly now? That is what I follow often for my temps that are a couple of weeks off.


Don’t forget to pack your gloves or an extra scarf, it’s going to be cold. As Jaster said, GEFS have been doing bad and surprisingly, the EPS has been doing quite well with the -EPO forecast which it has known to miss in recent years. It’s also seeing the blocking across the high lats and delivering the cold. I’m not seeing any pullback just yet.
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