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November 2018 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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As we are about to finish up one of the more extreme wx patterns during any October in history across the CONUS, we set are sights on the month of November which will continue to provide us more details of the new developing cyclical pattern. Folks, I believe that once this month is over, there will probably be numerous locations that score their first 1"+ of snowfall. After analyzing the Euro Weeklies from last night, they pretty much lock in a troughy look across our entire sub, except for maybe places in the northern Plains towards the middle of the month. Overall, I'm encouraged to see normal, to sub normal temps and many chances of precip throughout the month. Any pull back that comes after the first 10 days or so of the month, bring us back towards seasonal temps. If that's the case, this may solidify a very cold winter forthcoming.

 

Let's dive into to what will be an active opening week or so of November....

 

Both GEFS/EPS are indicating a what looks to be a storm system that wants to develop somewhere near the Arklatex region and track NE into the OV/Lower Lakes region around the 1st of the month...

 

 

gfs-ens_mslpaNorm_us_27.png

 

ecmwf-ens_mslpaNorm_us_8.png

 

 

 

The 00z EPS is suggesting a secondary piece coming out of the deep gulf into the OV region a couple days later....boy, these maps are intriguing showing the potential for Banana HP's which encourage blocking and slower/stronger storms.

 

ecmwf-ens_mslpaNorm_us_10.png

 

 

 

 

Last, but not least, yet another storm comes out of the Rockies during the 7th/8th period and tracks almost west/east under a big Canadian blocking pattern through the Plains/MW region. Overall, the EPS has the right idea of more extensive blocking in Canada when comparing it to the GEFS/GEPS.

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CFSv2 has immensely flipped towards locking in a central CONUS trough-like pattern with a solid SW Flow, SE/EC ridge and a big time NE PAC ridge.  I can't imagine a better look than this.  Lock it in!

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.z700.20181026.201811.gif

 

 

While temps are not overly cold, I still like the idea and loaded amounts of precip...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201811.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaPrec.201811.gif

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Thought I would chime in on this event as it has all the makings of a possible severe event on one end and a winter storm on the other. Abundant moisture showing up as well. Interesting storm brewing for next weekend which will be fun to monitor. Looking forward to tracking winter storms with this crew for the upcoming season. 

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Thought I would chime in on this event as it has all the makings of a possible severe event on one end and a winter storm on the other. Abundant moisture showing up as well. Interesting storm brewing for next weekend which will be fun to monitor. Looking forward to tracking winter storms with this crew for the upcoming season. 

Glad to see ya back Tony!  I got this feeling it will be a good year for us around these parts.  After 2 or 3 lousy seasons, this one has the potential to make up Bigly.  The storm system showing up the first few days of the month is interesting, although, the Euro is not really biting on it quite yet and is showing a different look.  

 

12z GEFS showing a PanHandle Hook type of track out of the TX/OK PanHandle region towards the lower lakes....tricky forecast later next week...

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A couple days ago I commented on how warm the GEFS were in the Week 2 range, but it's 10mb forecast gave me a clue to look for cooler trends and all of a sudden they have flipped big time cold to open up November.  The Euro has been steadfast on this idea.  Today's 12z EPS is even colder with possible records and an uptick in snow across IA/WI/MN with that late week storm system next week.  There are still members showing snow potential across the central Plains/MW as well.

 

4 runs ago...

 

gfs-ens_T2maMean_us_11.png

 

vs today's...

 

gfs-ens_T2maMean_us_7.png

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Boy, the 12z EPS are cold and stormy during this first 7-10 days of the month with back to back storms on the horizon across the region.  Simply amazing and a fun pattern to track.  After looking at most of the 51 members off the 12z EPS, there are a lot more members picking up on the southern piece the GEFS are seeing and tracking it straight up towards the GL's/OV during the 1st-3rd of the month.

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I took a look at the 12z EPS strat forecasts and by Day 10, it is suggesting a 180 flip from cold to warm as a possible mini strat warming event taking over the Pole.  If it is right, it'll be interesting to see how it develops as we move along this month bc that could be a precursor of  winter really taking over the pattern around Thanksgiving week or just beyond that time frame. 

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Hi i'm from the western forums and live in Esquimalt, Canada.  What kind of weather would you expect in Ontario/Western Quebec from the 8th to the 15th of November?   Can we expect cold and snow, or warm and sunny, from what the euro weeklies and CFS say? 

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@ Tom

 

Stoked much?  :lol:

 

 

You beat me to all the sweet maps compadre. Now this is what I've been looking for. Yowza if these models have a clue from this range, eh? 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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..meanwhile, GFS says (to The Mitt) "have I fantasy-bombed you lately?" :rolleyes:

 

20181026 18Z gfs_precip_h300.png

 

 

 

 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Hi i'm from the western forums and live in Esquimalt, Canada.  What kind of weather would you expect in Ontario/Western Quebec from the 8th to the 15th of November?   Can we expect cold and snow, or warm and sunny, from what the euro weeklies and CFS say? 

Hello, thanks for visiting our sub and popping in.  I don't forsee any warmth while your visiting eastern Canada in 2 weeks.  The pattern looks troughy and quite chilly during that time frame. Might even see some snow while your there.

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@ Tom

 

Stoked much?  :lol:

 

 

You beat me to all the sweet maps compadre. Now this is what I've been looking for. Yowza if these models have a clue from this range, eh? 

Ya man, I'm really excited about what I'm seeing going forward.  It really does feel like we will finally enjoy an ol' fashioned winter.  I'm looking forward to this month bc before you know it, we'll be celebrating Thanksgiving and kicking off the holiday season!  

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Ya man, I'm really excited about what I'm seeing going forward.  It really does feel like we will finally enjoy an ol' fashioned winter.  I'm looking forward to this month bc before you know it, we'll be celebrating Thanksgiving and kicking off the holiday season!  

 

I'm pretty geeked myself just with what's happened so far, and the better (best?) may be yet to come. I'm also trying to wrap-up my autumn to-do list asap in case we do suddenly flip to winter. Heck, even without snow cover, the frequent cold rainy wx combined with the shorter daylight is enough challenge already. Greenland's a serious icebox  :blink:

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Last Saturday..

 

20181020 9 pm radar snippit.JPG

 

This Saturday..

 

20181027 5 pm radar snippit.JPG

 

Plus tomorrow's clipper = a pattern I approve of

 

:D

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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The weather gets drastically colder by months end (November) w snows not outta the question.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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WHOA!

 

Niko buddy, you be gettin some rain over there??  Looks like the double-barrelled storm has come together just in time to douse SEMI pretty good.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Niko buddy, you be gettin some rain over there??  Looks like the double-barrelled storm has come together just in time to douse SEMI pretty good.

You bet...all day, on and off and a cold rain at that. If it was a month lata, this would have been a nice hit of snowfall, especially, like you mentioned above in your statement, its a double barreled low pressure area. I like the way these storm systems are coming together Jaster. Fun times ahead. Its only a matter of time b4 we get our first Winterstorm of the season.

 

How much rain IYBY?

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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You bet...all day, on and off and a cold rain at that. If it was a month lata, this would have been a nice hit of snowfall, especially, like you mentioned above in your statement, its a double barreled low pressure area. I like the way these storm systems are coming together Jaster. Fun times ahead. Its only a matter of time b4 we get our first Winterstorm of the season.

 

How much rain IYBY?

 

Back here in Marshall, we only had a few periods of legit rain and the ASOS unit at our little airport appears to have broken so it's not been reporting the actual amounts during those 3 rainy times. You can see via radar loop that this system did much better east of here by your area, though we may due well with the clipper tomorrow into Monday. This would be an awesome period were it winter. Can't  wait. While Detroit region got smashed with last December's mega-clipper, we only had 4" over this way. I'd certainly welcome anything bigger like what that storm did for yby ;)

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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If the 00z EPS is right, the ensemble snow maps I'm seeing literally are laying the foundation for cold to continue to brew on our continent.  The amount of real estate covered with snow through the first 10 days of this month extends across S Canada from B.C. all the way east into S Ontario/Quebec.  It looks more like a Dec 1st snow cover map and this snow creeps into the northern Plains/Dakotas/Upper MW as well.  Since Sept, seemingly everything in the world of wx is coming about a month in advance.  To be able to witness all of this happening in this day and age is something spectacular.  Some members on here are poised to get hit hard by the middle of the month.  Fun times ahead!

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If the 00z EPS is right, the ensemble snow maps I'm seeing literally are laying the foundation for cold to continue to brew on our continent.  The amount of real estate covered with snow through the first 10 days of this month extends across S Canada from B.C. all the way east into S Ontario/Quebec.  It looks more like a Dec 1st snow cover map and this snow creeps into the northern Plains/Dakotas/Upper MW as well.  Since Sept, seemingly everything in the world of wx is coming about a month in advance.  To be able to witness all of this happening in this day and age is something spectacular.  Some members on here are poised to get hit hard by the middle of the month.  Fun times ahead!

 

Indeed. While SMI has had snowier Oct's a few times, November's the month when it can mean true winter-like conditions. Considering that 12" hit BC on Nov 2nd of '66 the entire month has potential. However, mostly it's the 2nd half that opens a window here if we're going to get an early start to the snow season. I wish I had time to fully research all significant snow around here during latter Nov. My personal fave is the deer season bliz of 16-18th of '89 with it's ferocious winds. That one was a true Mitt Hit and wasn't shared with too many other states.

 

19891118_072_total.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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yikes.gif   What a pattern. Over the next 2 wks, the GFS reloads OK with systems and fires away at the MW/GL's. This would be wild in winter.

 

20181028 6Z gfs_Oct30.png

20181028 6Z gfs_Nov04.png

20181028 6Z gfs_Nov07.png

20181028 6Z gfs_Nov13.png

 

 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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attachicon.gifyikes.gif   What a pattern. Over the next 2 wks, the GFS reloads OK with systems and fires away at the MW/GL's. This would be wild in winter.

 

attachicon.gif20181028 6Z gfs_Oct30.png

attachicon.gif20181028 6Z gfs_Nov04.png

attachicon.gif20181028 6Z gfs_Nov07.png

attachicon.gif20181028 6Z gfs_Nov13.png

That type of track looks as good as it can get for Winterstorms come Winter, or even late Autumn.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Back here in Marshall, we only had a few periods of legit rain and the ASOS unit at our little airport appears to have broken so it's not been reporting the actual amounts during those 3 rainy times. You can see via radar loop that this system did much better east of here by your area, though we may due well with the clipper tomorrow into Monday. This would be an awesome period were it winter. Can't  wait. While Detroit region got smashed with last December's mega-clipper, we only had 4" over this way. I'd certainly welcome anything bigger like what that storm did for yby ;)

:P ;)

 

Last December here like you mentioned above was a crazy "Clipper ride" in SEMI. It was wild. I lost count of how many snow type systems we had IMBY. Not huge amounts, but they added up. Dang! :blink:

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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By this time next week, clocks will have been set back an hour and you all know what that means, models come in an hour earlier!  Besides that, it'll be well-timed bc the pattern is about to become loaded with storms across our board.

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By this time next week, clocks will have been set back an hour and you all know what that means, models come in an hour earlier! Besides that, it'll be well-timed bc the pattern is about to become loaded with storms across our board.

 

Yes. Going to enjoy this last warm, breezy and long evening of the year. It's been a wonderful 1st half of fall. I'm ready to get this last half rockin and rollin.

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Here ya go OKwx2k4......get ready....

 

http://www.news9.com/story/39362303/david-paynes-2018-19-oklahoma-winter-weather-forecast

 

Edit: Hopefully your storms will inundate my area. ;)

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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