November 2018 Observations and Discussion

[Niko]

About 90% of the trees here in SEMI are bare. The other 10% are about to shake em off soon.

[Esquimalt]

Cloudy currently w temps quite mild at 51F. Showers are about to end.

 

Big time cold coming by weeks end. Hopefully, my area sees some flakes. Not looking very promising for any accumulations here IMBY. We will see. Temps for highs will be between 30-35 at its coldest and low 20s for low temps. BRRRRRRRRR!!!!

Models seem to be making the friday system slightly cooler for us and you.  I wouldn't lose hope just yet on that one.

[Esquimalt]

Euro shows a big change last night too.  Cooler and snowier for most.  Weather network has also gone to showing 5-7  inches of snow in ottawa and montreal on the 13th...

[westMJim]

In my neck of the woods I would say about 60% to 70% of the trees are now bare.  I have a Red Norway Maple that is now around 50% bare and there is a large tree in the Maple family across the road that is now yellow but still is hanging onto many of its leaves. There are a lot of trees in my area that are in the Maple family that seem to hang on to their leaves late each fall, their leaves don't have much color in them the leaves are smaller then most Maples but have a Maple leaf shape. And of course the woods across the way has many oak trees. I walk to and many times into that woods and while some of the Oaks have lost their leaves many have not.

[james1976]

Good Monday to you all! What a week of weather that is forthcoming. As I mentioned before, even if I'm not in the direct spot to get hit with snow this week, as long as I can see the flakes fly during the upcoming cold snap I'm a happy camper. I have yet to see the flakes fly so that's what I'm hoping for. I think Chicago has a good shot at receiving its first 1"+ tally of snow by the end of the weekend. With that being said, the GL's region looks very wintry late week and into the weekend. Our MI peeps near the lake may be using their shovels/snow blowers as an intense early season arctic outbreak ignites the lake.

 

00z Euro...KC region still looks like they will see some snow later in the week.

Is that snow in IA from a clipper?

[Tom]

Is that snow in IA from a clipper?

Yes, weekend clipper.

[gimmesnow]

I know everyone is excited about the possible snow, but what's the temps look like after this stretch of really cold weather? Is it going to stay that low, or are we going to get another late November torch like last year?

[Niko]

Models seem to be making the friday system slightly cooler for us and you.  I wouldn't lose hope just yet on that one.

Way too soon to lose any hope. Weather changes by the minute. We will see what happens. Hopefully, we all score some of the white stuff.

[Esquimalt]

Trend in the wrong direction this morning on the models...the cold pool just isn't as thick on the GFS and the GEM and it's a little concerning.  Good agreement between the GEM and the Euro on a snowfall event throughout northern NY, Vermont and Southern Quebec early on the 14th. 

[Stacsh]

I have gas for the snow blower, One thing I will say about the above snow map  is that early in the season the first few lake snow events are many times further inland and not so much at the lake shore. The reason for that is the lake is still warm and that in turn keeps the lake shore areas warmer.  

 

Yeah I live a mile from the lake shore,  It will be green grass for about 5 miles until i get further inland.  Even true deeper into winter.  True lake effect usually gets deposited 10-30 miles inland from here.   Unless the wind is truly NNW.  In 2014 GR had a couple feet of snow in November,  We got like 3 inches lol. 

[james1976]

GFS is way north with the weekend clipper but now has 1 moving across IA daytime Friday.

[jaster220]

We could only wish to see something like this!

 

What? The 1" in mby    But, maybe it'll be wrong, lol

[CentralNebWeather]

Now GFS has some snow again for Nebraska on Thursday, not much though.  Back and forth with the models.

[Tom]

12z Euro looking better in terms of organization across the Plains/MW, as well as, once it really develops across the GL’s/OV.

[bud2380]

Yeah, GFS and the NAM even showing a bit of snow again on Thursday into NE & IA.  The GFS seems to rotate a secondary piece of energy through Iowa on Friday bringing an inch or two of snow.  

[Niko]

Feels so nice outside. I was just preparing my outdoor furniture and covering them from Winters harsh cold and I could not believe how mild it is. I was actually sweating. Currently 52F w partly sunny skies.

[jaster220]

Western UP

 

000
NWUS53 KMQT 051615
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1115 AM EST MON NOV 5 2018

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM SNOW 1 ESE BERGLAND 46.59N 89.55W
11/05/2018 M4.4 INCH ONTONAGON MI CO-OP OBSERVER

CO-OP OBSERVER STATION BERM4, BERGLAND DAM.
24-HOUR LIQUID PRECIP 0.60 INCHES BUT SOME
MAY HAVE BEEN RAIN. 2 INCH SNOW DEPTH AT OB
TIME.

[Niko]

Western UP

 

000

NWUS53 KMQT 051615

LSRMQT

 

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI

1115 AM EST MON NOV 5 2018

 

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...

..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

..REMARKS..

 

0800 AM SNOW 1 ESE BERGLAND 46.59N 89.55W

11/05/2018 M4.4 INCH ONTONAGON MI CO-OP OBSERVER

 

CO-OP OBSERVER STATION BERM4, BERGLAND DAM.

24-HOUR LIQUID PRECIP 0.60 INCHES BUT SOME

MAY HAVE BEEN RAIN. 2 INCH SNOW DEPTH AT OB

TIME.

The snow-magnet location

[bud2380]

NAM on Thursday night.

 

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018110518/084/refcmp_ptype.us_mw.png

[GDR]

You go nam!

[Clinton]

You go nam!

This has to be a good sign for winter if we can get an accumulating snow in early Nov. in the KC area.

[bud2380]

Some decent snows in SW Nebraska on that run.  

 

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018110518/084/snku_acc.us_c.png

[Minny_Weather]

Not gonna get my hopes up with NAM 84 hours out. We all know that whatever it shows this far out, the opposite usually happens.

[CentralNebWeather]

Some decent snows in SW Nebraska on that run.  

 

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018110518/084/snku_acc.us_c.png

That is knocking on my door.  Would like to see a little white but not holding my breath.

[jaster220]

Some guidance has revived our shot at system snow Friday. Under 120 hrs out & I could see this trending better tbh. Euro and American models indicate about a 15-16 mb/24 hr deepening as it turns the corner and heads more NNE

 

 

Edit - Actually, including the follow-on LES signal, the V3 has flakes flying about 27 hrs! It may not amount to much but certainly would feel very winter-like with temps plummeting and WC factor in play. This weekend's storm stripped so many trees, the woods really look ready for snow now - bring it!

[Esquimalt]

Some guidance has revived our shot at system snow Friday. Under 120 hrs out & I could see this trending better tbh. Euro and American models indicate about a 15-16 mb/24 hr deepening as it turns the corner and heads more NNE

 

20181105 18z FV3 h90.png

 

Edit - Actually, including the follow-on LES signal, the V3 has flakes flying about 27 hrs! It may not amount to much but certainly would feel very winter-like with temps plummeting and WC factor in play. This weekend's storm stripped so many trees, the woods really look ready for snow now - brind it!

Yeah i was just looking at that.  Do you think that it would fall as wet snow throughout Michigan and Ontario with the temps shown?

[gabel23]

Dean wysoscki is a meteorologist out of Lincoln and found his tweet interesting today, wondering if he has his own research or bases it off Gary lezak?!

 

https://twitter.com/deanwysockiklkn/status/1059572286813016066

[jaster220]

Yeah i was just looking at that.  Do you think that it would fall as wet snow throughout Michigan and Ontario with the temps shown?

 

 

Well, one would not expect a dry snow at this time of year in any case, so yeah a wet snow. Do you mean large fatty flake wet snow or what exactly? I've seen tiny half-melted wet snow, and I've also seen massive dendrite aggregate flakes. This isn't the kind of strong SLP with the dynamic lift usually associated with that scenario tho, so I'd lean towards moderate sized flakes, and rates just heavy enough to keep what falls as flakes vs mix.

 

Regardless of what the system may deliver, this map at h114 has to be about the perfect fetch for SWMI LES and a serious cold punch bringing some awesome delta-T's. If anything remotely as portrayed plays out, expect the shorter range guidance to paint more snow via the follow-on cold air rushing in. The globals usually do a weak job of depicting the low-level LES anyways.

 

 

I'm excited looping some of the model runs now..

[Esquimalt]

Well, one would not expect a dry snow at this time of year in any case, so yeah a wet snow. Do you mean large fatty flake wet snow or what exactly? I've seen tiny half-melted wet snow, and I've also seen massive dendrite aggregate flakes. This isn't the kind of strong SLP with the dynamic lift usually associated with that scenario tho, so I'd lean towards moderate sized flakes, and rates just heavy enough to keep what falls as flakes vs mix.

 

Regardless of what the system may deliver, this map at h114 has to be about the perfect fetch for SWMI LES and a serious cold punch bringing some awesome delta-T's. If anything remotely as portrayed plays out, expect the shorter range guidance to paint more snow via the follow-on cold air rushing in. The globals usually do a weak job of depicting the low-level LES anyways.

 

20181105 fv3p_T850_us_h114.png

 

I'm excited looping some of the model runs now..

I was thinking by wet snow that it some pretty sloppy flakes mix in with the rain drops. That's my interpretation of the situation but you may be right about the low level cold.  The GFS has removed some of the cold over the lakes so if you're near any of the Great lakes snow levels will be much higher sadly.   But I am thinking there's a good chance this system is going to dump a little snow in southern ontario/the mitt.

[jaster220]

I was thinking by wet snow that it some pretty sloppy flakes mix in with the rain drops. That's my interpretation of the situation but you may be right about the low level cold.  The GFS has removed some of the cold over the lakes so if you're near any of the Great lakes snow levels will be much higher sadly.   But I am thinking there's a good chance this system is going to dump a little snow in southern ontario/the mitt.

 

I looped the V3 2m temps (low 30's) and the 850's look plenty cold, so again, the dynamic cooling with an ample snowfall rate SHOULD mean flakes over the half-melted flakes scenario. This, ofc, is based just on this one model's one single run so it's just for talking purposes attm.

 

I do like today's NCEP snowfall map going forward tho. Looks more like a decent December map!

 

[jaster220]

On another note, Saturday evening and this evening were just simply beautiful for late autumn around these parts. Sunshine, blue skies, with a variety of clouds including the tell-tale wispy ones that reveal the jet stream and an impending storm on the horizon. With a chilly temp of 46F on my way home after work, it wasn't too hard to imagine how awesome this pattern would be if it were snowstorms vs rain makers.

 

I'm pretty sure a large portion of this precip shield would be frozen if it were January for instance.

 

[Esquimalt]

I looped the V3 2m temps (low 30's) and the 850's look plenty cold, so again, the dynamic cooling with an ample snowfall rate SHOULD mean flakes over the half-melted flakes scenario. This, ofc, is based just on this one model's one single run so it's just for talking purposes attm.

 

I do like today's NCEP snowfall map going forward tho. Looks more like a decent December map!

 

20181105 NCEP EnsMean snowfall thru d16.PNG

You make some good points, but the old GFS isn't completely convinced.  It's showing low 40s in many places during the heart of that event. 

[Niko]

Some guidance has revived our shot at system snow Friday. Under 120 hrs out & I could see this trending better tbh. Euro and American models indicate about a 15-16 mb/24 hr deepening as it turns the corner and heads more NNE

 

20181105 18z FV3 h90.png

 

Edit - Actually, including the follow-on LES signal, the V3 has flakes flying about 27 hrs! It may not amount to much but certainly would feel very winter-like with temps plummeting and WC factor in play. This weekend's storm stripped so many trees, the woods really look ready for snow now - bring it!

Interesting scenario to say the least.

[Niko]

Rain on the way....temps are mild. Currently at 48F.

[Niko]

PER NOAA:
 

Winter-like airmass to arrive for the first half of of the Weekend,
as airmass comes directly from Arctic Circle, leading to multiple
chances of accumulating snowfall. The first one comes Thursday night-
Friday. The second one will be with the potential localized lake
enhanced snow showers Friday night-Saturday. If those events don`t
work out, another chance of warm advection light snow for the end of
the weekend.

 

Dang! November aint messin around y'all.

[jaster220]

PER NOAA:

 

Winter-like airmass to arrive for the first half of of the Weekend,

as airmass comes directly from Arctic Circle, leading to multiple

chances of accumulating snowfall. The first one comes Thursday night-

Friday. The second one will be with the potential localized lake

enhanced snow showers Friday night-Saturday. If those events don`t

work out, another chance of warm advection light snow for the end of

the weekend.

 

Dang! November aint messin around y'all.

 

You know it's legit when conservative DTX is leaning that way. While the fetch may not be the best for GRR's back yard, I expect them to (reluctantly) come alive about the potential as well. Fun times!

[Niko]

You know it's legit when conservative DTX is leaning that way. While the fetch may not be the best for GRR's back yard, I expect them to (reluctantly) come alive about the potential as well. Fun times!

Exactly. Looking very interesting. I bet you by tomorrow or Wednesday, forecasts will be mentioning the chance for snow 70% or better w more confidence.

[jaster220]

My future is indeed looking a bit more flakey

 

[Niko]

My future is indeed looking a bit more flakey

 

20181105 GRR grid icons.PNG

Very cold air coming next week. My highs are projected to be near freezing and lows in the upper teens. You will probably be colder. Well below norm for this time of the year.

[jaster220]

Very cold air coming next week. My highs are projected to be near freezing and lows in the upper teens. You will probably be colder. Well below norm for this time of the year.

 

Here's the 12z Euro. Idk how Lake Michigan fails to respond to this onslaught, and I'm no LES expert by any means.