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November 2018 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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NAM 32k looks pretty moist. I like it's look even if it's at the end of it's range. Best model looks so far imho

 

nam_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_28.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Here's the 12z Euro. Idk how Lake Michigan fails to respond to this onslaught, and I'm no LES expert by any means.

 

attachicon.gifecmwf_T850_us_fh96-216.gif

This one is coming straight from the Arctic!

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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This one is coming straight from the Arctic!

 

I think just about every global is now onboard with the stage setting system on Thurs night/Friday. It's not a huge system attm. Funny that JB back in his Saturday update dropped the "B-word" for the MW/GL's with this system. Ofc, that's back when all the models were going bonkers. Nonetheless, it appears we have something on our hands to track. Need somebody to fire up a thread..Tom?

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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I think just about every global is now onboard with the stage setting system on Thurs night/Friday. It's not a huge system attm. Funny that JB back in his Saturday update dropped the "B-word" for the MW/GL's with this system. Ofc, that's back when all the models were going bonkers. Nonetheless, it appears we have something on our hands to track. Need somebody to fire up a thread..Tom?

This could very well be our first significant accumulating snowfall. Lets see what the models will be showing by Wednesday. One thing is for sure.....we will be tracking a potential Winterstorm.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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An interesting battle is shaping up out towards late in Week 2 as the GEFS/EPS are not quite in agreement on the overall pattern.  Does it relax???  Or is this a reloading period prior to the beginning of LRC cycle # 2???  Recent trends in the EPS have been showing a ridge building into the Intermountain West and eventually into the central CONUS around the 18th.  This has been a part of this year's pattern where ridging builds into the Plains during this developing pattern and I would imagine seeing bursts of ridging and relaxation in the winter months the farther west you go.

 

Something the models may be sniffing out between the 18th-20th is a stout ridge near the Aleutians.  This is a -PNA signal to look for out in the extended and it could suggest that re-cycling pattern later in the month.  On a side note, the 00z EPS is indicating a strong -WPO signal in Week 2 and that is a cold signal for the month of November.  So we have some conflicting elements that the models will try and figure out.

 

gfs-ens_z500aMean_npac_12.png

 

 

 

One thing that has proven to be a good tool is the GEFS 10mb strat forecasts and they continue to "seed" cold into North America through Week 2.

 

gfs-ens_Tz10Mean_nhem_10.png

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Not sure if we're going to beat these dates or not tbh

 

Tab3FileL.png?e08ab5e4bd0a6a44a29f61d139

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Dean wysoscki is a meteorologist out of Lincoln and found his tweet interesting today, wondering if he has his own research or bases it off Gary lezak?!

 

https://twitter.com/deanwysockiklkn/status/1059572286813016066

I've always been an LRC skeptic, still am, but to see Dean talking about it is something. I'll be tuning in.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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It is quite windy and mild out there currently w temps holding at 54F. Also, the rain has ended.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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It is quite windy and mild out there currently w temps holding at 54F. Also, the rain has ended.

 

Yep, leafs blowing all over the place on my morning commute, even across 94. Love the stormy feeling. Even GRR captured it in their AFD

 

 

 

The low moving through the region today will be deepening as it does

reaching the low 990`s mb over Georgian Bay this evening. A tight

pressure gradient will be in place which will produce strong winds.

The winds will be ramping up this morning and peak between noon and

7pm. The highest winds will likely occur south of a line from

Muskegon to Mt. Pleasant. Wind gusts to around 40 mph appear to be

the top end of what we will see. Tonight`s models are showing a bit

more wind as compared to last night`s runs aloft. 40-45 knots are

now in the profile at 2,000ft. With clouds staying in through the

day think we will likely only mix through 1,500 ft. If we do mix

deeper, we could flirt with wind advisory criteria, which is gusts

to 45 mph or higher. The bulk of the steadier rain will be moving

north of the area at daybreak, but we will see areas of drizzle and

light rain through the day. It certainly will feel like a gales of

november kind of day.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Yep, leafs blowing all over the place on my morning commute, even across 94. Love the stormy feeling. Even GRR captured it in their AFD

I am almost sure that after today's windstorm, all trees will be 100% bare here in SEMI. Okay, maybe 97%.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Winds are gusting to 45mph. I can hear the roaring sound on the windows. Sounds like a soundeffect in what a movie would use.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Yep, leafs blowing all over the place on my morning commute, even across 94. Love the stormy feeling. Even GRR captured it in their AFD

I was just going to say, that today absolutely feels like a true autumnal day with the low stratus, windy conditions and leafs blowing all over the place. Yet another very windy day this Autumn.

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The Euro is suggesting the MJO to cycle back towards Phases 8/1 at the tail end of Week 2.  Phase 1 shows a SE ridge in November and this idea would fit the re-loading of LRC cycle #2??  Is the SW Flow going to reignite a wetter pattern in the SW/CO Rockies?  Something to monitor going forward.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ECMF_phase_51m_small.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Temperature/OND/combined_image.png

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@ MJO

 

There's JB's re-looping thru 8/1/2 phases he's calling for over the winter. If it happens, that would essentially be like the CONUS is stuck like a "broken record" in the most wintery phases possible. #winterloversdream

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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:lol:  What would a model be without a d15 teaser for The Mitt?

 

20181106 12z gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_384.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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:lol:  What would a model be without a d15 teaser for The Mitt?

 

attachicon.gif20181106 12z gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_384.png

Dare I say a massive snowstorm??!! Looks like my area has the heaviest axis of the snow, no?! :huh:

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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It is still very windy. I was at a pkg-lot loading my shopping bags in my trunk and the wind almost took me w it. :lol: I must say at least 20-25 sustain.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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TWC has rain for my area on Friday. :huh:

 

Btw: I may not crack 30F for a high next week. Perhaps stay in the 20s. This is a real shot of Arctic air.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Just got back from voting. Been doing so here for 14 yrs and don't remember a nastier evening. We've had rain, but not the combo of rain/wind/chill like this evening. Would've been quite the nasty day in winter around SWMI. Storm, you're welcome back any time. Sooner the better. For autumn, I want either sunny and mild or extreme like we've had for the past several weeks! And now the real deal chill is on deck.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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I have a low of 20 Friday!! Holy moly!! Dass cold man!! :lol:

 

Bye-bye leafs, eh??

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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GEM chucks 'em deep for our Neb and Minny peeps. Now that would also be a November to remember.

 

gem_asnow_us_40.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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@ MJO

 

There's JB's re-looping thru 8/1/2 phases he's calling for over the winter. If it happens, that would essentially be like the CONUS is stuck like a "broken record" in the most wintery phases possible. #winterloversdream

This x 100. Theres only one winter that compares in written history to what is possibly being laid out and that is that 1911 year. Its incredible and yet a bit scary at the same time.

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^ too bad that was last night’s run Jaster. The 12z doesn’t look anything like that unfortunately. The sweet Colorado low was replaced with the NW flow of death.

 

I knew it wasn't the latest, but what an eye-candy snowfall map to start your tracking season off. At least you weren't tease-kicked by the Euro showing 35" over yby 3 runs in a row, only to yank it out from under you to nothing. That was my scenario last winter, lol

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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I knew it wasn't the latest, but what an eye-candy snowfall map to start your tracking season off. At least you weren't tease-kicked by the Euro showing 35" over yby 3 runs in a row, only to yank it out from under you to nothing. That was my scenario last winter, lol

That was like a stab in the back. I remember it was showing the same for my area.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Brutal cold for next week as highs are now forecasted to remain in the 20s and lows in the teens. BRRRRR!!!

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Brutal cold for next week as highs are now forecasted to remain in the 20s and lows in the teens. BRRRRR!!!

 

Nov '89 and '14 ghosts come a haunting! ;)

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Nov '89 and '14 ghosts come a haunting! ;)

Yup...brings back memories. :blink:

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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