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November 2018 Observations and Discussion

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#501
Niko

Posted 09 November 2018 - 07:08 AM

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Ok...so, I just realized that I have not even gotten my snowblower ready yet for Winter. :lol: Will not need it for this round, but eventually, when the big dogs hit, I'd betta have it ready.  :blink:



#502
Niko

Posted 09 November 2018 - 07:09 AM

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Still snowing moderately. Temp at 32F. :ph34r:

 

Edit: next week looks brutal. After Tuesday snow system, bottom falls out. Highs on Wednesday in the mid to upper 20s and lows in the teens. BRRRRRRR!!!!

 

Is this November or December?! :rolleyes:


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#503
Stormgeek

Posted 09 November 2018 - 07:54 AM

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Woke up to a balmy 15. Brisk wind is making it feel much colder. I believe temps right now are resembling some where in late December, not early November... Would be scared to see these types of anomalies in January...

#504
bud2380

Posted 09 November 2018 - 10:57 AM

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Outside of the cold, not really seeing much to track the next 7-10 days.  Models have been pretty quiet.  



#505
CentralNebWeather

Posted 09 November 2018 - 11:03 AM

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Woke up to a balmy 15. Brisk wind is making it feel much colder. I believe temps right now are resembling some where in late December, not early November... Would be scared to see these types of anomalies in January...


You are correct. I will have to check the records to find a day in Central Nebraska where at 1 pm it is still 18 degrees with wind chills close to 0. December to March could be brutal

#506
jaster220

Posted 09 November 2018 - 11:14 AM

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You are correct. I will have to check the records to find a day in Central Nebraska where at 1 pm it is still 18 degrees with wind chills close to 0. December to March could be brutal

 

"Teeth Chattering" you meant  ;)



#507
Niko

Posted 09 November 2018 - 12:20 PM

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I think the EC storm will clip SEMI early next and could provide more substantial snowfall here. Temps will be also a lot colder. Something to watch for. Jaster, I think you are a bit too far west for this one buddy, but, no worries because you will get LES. ;)


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#508
Hawkeye

Posted 09 November 2018 - 12:23 PM

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Outside of the cold, not really seeing much to track the next 7-10 days.  Models have been pretty quiet.  

Yeah, a lot of arctic cold with little to show for it.


season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#509
snowstorm83

Posted 09 November 2018 - 05:05 PM

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Even with a light wind, KLNK is already down to 13 at the 7pm obs. 



#510
CentralNebWeather

Posted 09 November 2018 - 05:25 PM

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Already down to 7 degrees and not even 7:30 pm yet. Amazing what a deep blanket of snow will do.
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#511
LNK_Weather

Posted 09 November 2018 - 05:53 PM

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At 13°F, we have already met our expected low for the night.
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>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 7.1"             Coldest Low: 7*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#512
jaster220

Posted 09 November 2018 - 06:22 PM

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#iceboxnation in the evening :blink:

 

Attached File  20181109 act temps 2130 EDT.jpg   113.53KB   1 downloads


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#513
CentralNebWeather

Posted 09 November 2018 - 06:27 PM

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#iceboxnation in the evening :blink:

20181109 act temps 2130 EDT.jpg


Looks like a January map. Whoa.
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#514
Madtown

Posted 09 November 2018 - 08:02 PM

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wowza 18 here...winds up to 30mph tonight!

#515
Niko

Posted 09 November 2018 - 08:08 PM

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A balmy 29F here compare to you guys out west in the Plains.



#516
OKwx2k4

Posted 09 November 2018 - 08:27 PM

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#iceboxnation in the evening :blink:

20181109 act temps 2130 EDT.jpg


Wait til winter. Holy crap. This is just really awesome to see.
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#517
OKwx2k4

Posted 09 November 2018 - 08:31 PM

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Models converging on an advisory worthy winter scenario here....in November. :) I think this thing has some strengthening left in the modeling as we get closer. I'm pretty ecstatic. Here's to the first of many like it to come.

Attached File  gfs_6hr_snow_acc_conus2_15.png   169.79KB   0 downloads
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#518
Niko

Posted 09 November 2018 - 09:01 PM

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Currently at 27F w windy conditions and wcf at 17F w mostly cloudy skies. Its cold outside.



#519
Niko

Posted 09 November 2018 - 09:10 PM

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In regards to next weeks system, it looks iffy on whether the storm on the EC will come close enough to clip the SEMI area.

 

Per NOAA:

A low will develop over the southeast US and deepen as it tracks
through the eastern seaboard on Tuesday. The Euro and Canadian
solutions continue to give a chance for the northwest extent of the
snow shield to clip our southeastern counties, but the GFS remains
steadfast in holding the system`s precip off to the east.



#520
jaster220

Posted 09 November 2018 - 09:18 PM

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In regards to next weeks system, it looks iffy on whether the storm on the EC will come close enough to clip the SEMI area.

 

Per NOAA:

A low will develop over the southeast US and deepen as it tracks
through the eastern seaboard on Tuesday. The Euro and Canadian
solutions continue to give a chance for the northwest extent of the
snow shield to clip our southeastern counties, but the GFS remains
steadfast in holding the system`s precip off to the east.

 

GFS has a SE bias. At least it did in years past. Who knows anymore, but I'll be interested to see if DTW gets in on the snow.



#521
Niko

Posted 09 November 2018 - 09:22 PM

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GFS has a SE bias. At least it did in years past. Who knows anymore, but I'll be interested to see if DTW gets in on the snow.

True, hopefully, by tomorrow or Sunday, models will have a better handled of this situation. I wonder what the NAM thinks.



#522
Tom

Posted 10 November 2018 - 04:04 AM

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Waking up this morning to the coldest temps since early April with a temp of 21F and a biting WC in the single digits.  My goodness, you guys in IA/MN are seeing temps as low as the single digits!  Just incredible to see this type of cold without any substantial snow cover.  I guess the "Nanook from the North" arrived early this year.


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#523
westMJim

Posted 10 November 2018 - 05:22 AM

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Here at my house I just recorded 2.8" of snow overnight. This morning the grass and the road are snow covered.  The lowest temperature here was 24° but it has warmed up and the current temperature is 29° 


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#524
jaster220

Posted 10 November 2018 - 05:49 AM

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Same here in Marshall. Everything's covered in a white blank with some snow blowing off roofs and occasional flakes flying about. Looks like December 10th. I think most of my 1.5" fell in a couple bursts as LES streamers made it all the way on a NW wind. Highest report I see into GRR is 6.2" north of me in Hastings. As expected, due to the warm lake and strong winds (55 mph gusts at the lakeshore overnight) the heaviest snows were displaced about one county inland. I don't think the due W fetch that was forecasted and shown on several futurecast models/maps ever materialized. Part 2 ended up being just an intense line of +IP yesterday evening. Combined with strong winds, it made my evening commute a bit dicey as the temps were then hitting 30F and it was hard to tell how slick the x-way was becoming. All in all, a nice storm, tho not terribly moist. Had this been normal winter time with a snow pack in place, there would've been serious blowing and drifting kind of conditions.


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#525
Tom

Posted 10 November 2018 - 06:33 AM

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Record breaking cold centered across the heartland this morning....some places setting new monthly record low temps..

 

 

 

records.daily.usa.large.png


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#526
St Paul Storm

Posted 10 November 2018 - 06:55 AM

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Looks like the weather station at home bottomed out at 7F last night. Snow still covering the ground keeping it extra frigid. Flying home from Nashville tomorrow, where it’s a balmy 26F. People here are freaking out.
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#527
Tom

Posted 10 November 2018 - 07:06 AM

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@ Okwx, trends are in your favor for some snow on Monday...

 

nam3km_ref_frzn_scus_52.png

 

 

namconus_ref_frzn_scus_42.png


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#528
Niko

Posted 10 November 2018 - 07:15 AM

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@Jaster

 

How much snow did ya pick up buddy? I was just under 2".



#529
Niko

Posted 10 November 2018 - 07:17 AM

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Currently at 26F w mostly cloudy skies. A few snowshowers dusted my area this morning. Winds are gusty as well. WCF in the upper S.D's n lower teens.



#530
gabel23

Posted 10 November 2018 - 07:20 AM

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@ Okwx, trends are in your favor for some snow on Monday...

 

nam3km_ref_frzn_scus_52.png

 

 

namconus_ref_frzn_scus_42.png

Boomer Sooner state looking good for some decent snows out of this. I received less than an inch from this last storm but got 3" in October; after this storm places in Oklahoma will double my season total! 


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#531
Niko

Posted 10 November 2018 - 07:26 AM

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GFS has trended slightly west for the late Mon-Tues storm like most other models. If this trend continues, my area could be in for a real good snowfall. Lets wait n see what happens. As for now, models are all starting to come together on a possible hit SEMI snowstorm.



#532
gimmesnow

Posted 10 November 2018 - 07:44 AM

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Another really early open at the ski hill this year! This cold wave is going to be awesome. They are set to blow a ton of snow monday and tuesday if they don't get it done this weekend.


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#533
Money

Posted 10 November 2018 - 09:20 AM

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GFS has trended slightly west for the late Mon-Tues storm like most other models. If this trend continues, my area could be in for a real good snowfall. Lets wait n see what happens. As for now, models are all starting to come together on a possible hit SEMI snowstorm.


Nope

#534
Madtown

Posted 10 November 2018 - 09:34 AM

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south n East of here

#535
Money

Posted 10 November 2018 - 09:54 AM

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south n East of here


Believe in the West trend! That’s trended like 15 miles in two days

#536
CentralNebWeather

Posted 10 November 2018 - 11:41 AM

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Sitting with my son at the Husker game. Don’t remember being this cold before
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#537
james1976

Posted 10 November 2018 - 11:50 AM

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It's only made it to 22 so far. I wonder what the record cold high is. Cloudy now too.

#538
gabel23

Posted 10 November 2018 - 12:20 PM

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Sitting with my son at the Husker game. Don’t remember being this cold before


Coldest home game since 1993 Oklahoma. You might remember, I’m thinking there was an ice storm that day?! The temp was 17 but for some reason I remember we had tickets but didn’t go because of ice....
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#539
Bryan1117

Posted 10 November 2018 - 01:42 PM

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Sitting with my son at the Husker game. Don’t remember being this cold before

Wow, I was outside for a total of 15 minutes today and it was cold enough, couldn't imagine sitting outside in this cold for almost 4 hours... at least the game was great though and NU proved its the best 3 win team in the nation right now LOL! 


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#540
snowstorm83

Posted 10 November 2018 - 04:20 PM

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I was also at the game today. I layered up nicely, but should've worn an extra pair of socks or something. Alcohol helped. By far the coldest (out of the 5) games I've been to and the first win I've witnessed! 


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#541
CentralNebWeather

Posted 10 November 2018 - 05:06 PM

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Coldest home game since 1993 Oklahoma. You might remember, I’m thinking there was an ice storm that day?! The temp was 17 but for some reason I remember we had tickets but didn’t go because of ice....


I mentioned that to my son today. My wife and I had just started dating and that is the first game we went to together.
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#542
CentralNebWeather

Posted 10 November 2018 - 05:11 PM

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Wow, I was outside for a total of 15 minutes today and it was cold enough, couldn't imagine sitting outside in this cold for almost 4 hours... at least the game was great though and NU proved its the best 3 win team in the nation right now LOL!


We went down to the restroom and stood by a heater during halftime. We left after the Ozigbo touchdown made it 54-28. Martinez is the man. I think we may be picked to win the west next year. Frost is building it from the ground up and the improvement is visible.
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#543
hlcater

Posted 10 November 2018 - 05:56 PM

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We went down to the restroom and stood by a heater during halftime. We left after the Ozigbo touchdown made it 54-28. Martinez is the man. I think we may be picked to win the west next year. Frost is building it from the ground up and the improvement is visible.

You'll probably beat Iowa and the nutcase known as Stanley.


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2018-19 Snowfall: 

TOTAL: 3.5"

 

(Nov. 9: 0.6") (Nov. 17: 2.9")

Formerly NWLinn


#544
gabel23

Posted 10 November 2018 - 06:14 PM

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I mentioned that to my son today. My wife and I had just started dating and that is the first game we went to together.


So am I crazy or was there an ice storm followed by cold that day?! It’s been driving me crazy, it was either that game or Colorado sometime in the early to mid 90’s.

#545
OKwx2k4

Posted 10 November 2018 - 06:25 PM

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I mentioned that to my son today. My wife and I had just started dating and that is the first game we went to together.


That's one of those once in a lifetime games that I was glad I got to watch when I was a kid. (On tv of course)

#546
OKwx2k4

Posted 10 November 2018 - 06:34 PM

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Thanks folks. Yeah this snow event looking like a solid 2". That's pretty nice.

All leaves literally froze off last night at 15°. Onlh the old stiff oak trees' leaves are trying to hang and they won't make it til Wednesday. Nuked them all in 1 day. Instant winter. I just don't know how else to describe it. There are whole tree molts of green leaves on the ground and I have never saw that before. They just literally froze off like I had suggested a few weeks ago. Too cool!
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#547
CentralNebWeather

Posted 10 November 2018 - 06:42 PM

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That's one of those once in a lifetime games that I was glad I got to watch when I was a kid. (On tv of course)


I believe Nebraska beat Oklahoma that day 24-7. Tommy Frazier was a sophomore. I just asked my wife a little bit ago what she remembered and she said our boots were in 6 inches of snow all game but the sun was shining.

#548
OKwx2k4

Posted 10 November 2018 - 07:53 PM

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I believe Nebraska beat Oklahoma that day 24-7. Tommy Frazier was a sophomore. I just asked my wife a little bit ago what she remembered and she said our boots were in 6 inches of snow all game but the sun was shining.


I looked it up. 11-26-93. Post Thanksgiving Saturday. That would have been so brutal. Cold autumn. I remember massive cold later in the year also of I'm not mistaken.

#549
Niko

Posted 10 November 2018 - 08:09 PM

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Currently at 27F w cloudy skies.



#550
Esquimalt

Posted 10 November 2018 - 08:13 PM

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GFS has trended slightly west for the late Mon-Tues storm like most other models. If this trend continues, my area could be in for a real good snowfall. Lets wait n see what happens. As for now, models are all starting to come together on a possible hit SEMI snowstorm.

I almost feel that the old GFS snow maps are underestimating the intensity (or the snow maps aren't representative of the QPF potential being shown)...thoughts?