November 2018 Observations and Discussion

[Niko]

Currently cloudy to mostly cloudy and still mild w temps in the mid 40s. A few showers that were around seem to have ended.

[Niko]

GEM chucks 'em deep for our Neb and Minny peeps. Now that would also be a November to remember.

 

Just push that green color more southward pls.

[St Paul Storm]

Let’s keep this going all the way until April. Impressive stuff for early Nov.

[jaster220]

Currently cloudy to mostly cloudy and still mild w temps in the mid 40s. A few showers that were around seem to have ended.

 

I had +RN here in Marshall as recently as 9:35 this evening. NAM wants to basically repeat tonight's LP position but with arctic air Friday. Let's hope it's onto something with it's better phased look. Sometimes it scores a Coup over the globals in the shorter ranges.

[jaster220]

The MUCH BN boobs are hangin down over the CONUS on the latest CPC hazards. Them's a big hazard. Look at the size of 'em!

 

In all seriousness tho, notable is the first HEAVY SNOW hazard for the N GL's. Could be coming south not long after.

 

[Madtown]

lol

[Niko]

I had +RN here in Marshall as recently as 9:35 this evening. NAM wants to basically repeat tonight's LP position but with arctic air Friday. Let's hope it's onto something with it's better phased look. Sometimes it scores a Coup over the globals in the shorter ranges.

Nam in the passed has score big-time and destroyed the globals.

[Esquimalt]

Nam in the passed has score big-time and destroyed the globals.

What do you think are going to be the p-types for the Friday event in the Toronto/Ottawa area?  The NAM is suggesting snow levels down to the lake.  

[Niko]

What do you think are going to be the p-types for the Friday event in the Toronto/Ottawa area?  The NAM is suggesting snow levels down to the lake.  

Not sure

[Niko]

Currently at 43F and still breezy. WCF in the morning will be in the upper 20s.

[Money]

lol

Sites going downhill fast

[Tom]

A stretch of daytime highs in the mid/upper 30's are more normal for early/mid December.  Winter is coming a month in advance and the signals have been showing up to our neighbor to the north.

 

 

 

 

Wait, what's this???  00z Euro slows down the system that was initially showing up along the EC early next week, but now its looking like another Arklatex cutter up the OV???  Last night's 00z EPS show a big shift west in the storm track and more ridging along the EC.  Many wound up cutters showing up as well.  

 

 

[Niko]

Currently at 42F, balmy, compare to the cold that is coming next week. Cloudy skies at the moment w breezy conditions.

[Niko]

A stretch of daytime highs in the mid/upper 30's are more normal for early/mid December.  Winter is coming a month in advance and the signals have been showing up to our neighbor to the north.

 

 

 

 

Wait, what's this???  00z Euro slows down the system that was initially showing up along the EC early next week, but now its looking like another Arklatex cutter up the OV???  Last night's 00z EPS show a big shift west in the storm track and more ridging along the EC.  Many wound up cutters showing up as well.  

Looks like my area has a better potential w next weeks system than this Fridays storm. TWC is calling for 1-3inches w Tuesday's storm.

[westMJim]

Cloudy, breezy with some light drizzle and 37° 

[jaster220]

What do you think are going to be the p-types for the Friday event in the Toronto/Ottawa area?  The NAM is suggesting snow levels down to the lake.  

 

Uhmm. Those 2 cities are like 4-1/2 hrs apart by car. Are you living in both places at once? Your question would be like me asking what it showed for Marshall and Marquette way up across the bridge in the U.P. 

 

If you have a locale in ONT where exactly is it?

[St Paul Storm]

Picked up about 0.25” of snow last night. With highs below freezing and no sun the next few days, I wonder if we might have snow OTG for the rest of the week. Probably not as the ground is still warm, but fun to consider for early Nov.

[Niko]

Uhmm. Those 2 cities are like 4-1/2 hrs apart by car. Are you living in both places at once? Your question would be like me asking what it showed for Marshall and Marquette way up across the bridge in the U.P. 

 

If you have a locale in ONT where exactly is it?

 

FWIW: @ Esquimalt.....I checked on Toronto forecast and shows rain.

[Esquimalt]

Uhmm. Those 2 cities are like 4-1/2 hrs apart by car. Are you living in both places at once? Your question would be like me asking what it showed for Marshall and Marquette way up across the bridge in the U.P.

 

If you have a locale in ONT where exactly is it?

Lol I’m in Toronto on the 9th.

[bud2380]

Dang, as Tom pointed out, Euro with the big system early next week.  That was a surprise.  Well to my south still, but it would be cool if St. Louis got a major snowstorm by mid-November. I'll bet that doesn't happen often.  Let's see if the 12z hangs on to it or not.  

[Niko]

Its a raw, cloudy, chilly day w temps in the 40s. Not sure when the last time was when I saw the sun.

[Stormgeek]

Woke up to flash frozen roads and a coating of snow. Absolutely brutal out there right now with the winds. High of 31 and nothing above freezing for a while here. Brrrrrr

[OKwx2k4]

A stretch of daytime highs in the mid/upper 30's are more normal for early/mid December. Winter is coming a month in advance and the signals have been showing up to our neighbor to the north.

 

 

 

 

Wait, what's this??? 00z Euro slows down the system that was initially showing up along the EC early next week, but now its looking like another Arklatex cutter up the OV??? Last night's 00z EPS show a big shift west in the storm track and more ridging along the EC. Many wound up cutters showing up as well.

That's looking a lot more like it.

[Tom]

12z Euro still showing a large TX Panhandle system cutting up the OV for early next week and brings a swath of accumulating snow from the TX Panhandle into the Lower Lakes.  

 

 

That's looking a lot more like it.

Your riding the edge for the early week system if the Euro is right!

[Tom]

Here are the snow maps...

[Hawkeye]

We're still sitting at 33, by far the coldest day so far.

 

As Bud just posted, the 12z euro remove any snow for our area from the first wave.  The possible potent little clipper behind it is still a mystery.  The euro and GFS still have it crossing my area, but other models don't... and the swath of snow is so narrrow, any one location can easily be missed.

[Esquimalt]

Here are the snow maps...

What does the snow look like for montreal/ottawa, Tom?

[Tom]

What does the snow look like for montreal/ottawa, Tom?

Thump snow transitioning to rain as you get into the warm sector.

[Esquimalt]

Thump snow transitioning to rain as you get into the warm sector.

Okay thanks.  Seems like a warm run to me.  

[Niko]

Cloudy and cold w temps in the upper 30s. Breezy conditions also w a wcf of 30F.

[jaster220]

Here are the snow maps...

 

That's both systems by the looks of it, correct? Any way to separate system #2?

[Niko]

Winds are continuing to howl here. Just had a wind gust to 32mph.

[Tom]

That's both systems by the looks of it, correct? Any way to separate system #2?

I’ll try to find a way if there is one, but I’ll do it for the next run.

[Niko]

Cloudy and cold currently w 36F. Still breezy.

[gabel23]

My high for Friday is forecasted to be 25 with a low of 11. Any snow we see.....if any......will be blown around by winds gusting over 30. The date is January 9th, I mean November 9th?!?!

[jaster220]

105 yrs ago today. The Freshwater Fury began here in the eastern GL's. A (much younger) Bill Deedler from DTX is in this documentary made in Canada and I'd never seen this before! Will we see some more "gales of November" over the next several days? Just don't go out on a boat is all I'm gonna say.

 

 

[Niko]

Trees are almost bare here. About 95%.

[Niko]

@Jaster

 

Couple of inches looking possible for ya, if not several inches for Friday.

[jaster220]

@Jaster

 

Couple of inches looking possible for ya, if not several inches for Friday.

 

Oddly, I don't scan my forecast very often. Not from a TV source nor an internet source. I'll keep an eye on maps posted around boards including this one and hope for positive trends. That's what I do. I learned a long time ago that in a good storm, amounts were always under forecast, but more often the storm didn't pan out so well, and I'd get disappointed watching the eroding forecast amounts, lol. In the old days, they could update "in real time" the way you see now via the internet. Often, radio outlets would still be calling for the big amounts after it was obvious things hadn't developed the way they thought and the storm was a dud. 

[OKwx2k4]

105 yrs ago today. The Freshwater Fury began here in the eastern GL's. A (much younger) Bill Deedler from DTX is in this documentary made in Canada and I'd never seen this before! Will we see some more "gales of November" over the next several days? Just don't go out on a boat is all I'm gonna say.

 

Coming up on "Big Fitz" day up there also (11-10-1975). Both eerie and cool at the same time.