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November 2018 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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The 00z GFS has moved the Friday clipper sw, so the GEM and Euro are the only two models bringing snow through eastern Iowa.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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00z Euro still holding on to the idea of a TX Panhandle/Lower Lakes snowstorm early next week.  @ Jaster, I tried to separate it for ya and the only option was a 24-hour snowfall map.  Still looking good for MI/IN posters and snowbelt regions down wind of LM.

 

 

 

 

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As Matthew McConaughey says, alright, alright, alright....over the past few days, we've been having the first legit long range battle of this cold season in the Week 2 range between the EPS/GEFS.  Now, before I dive into the details, both models have had their hits and misses this season.  First, it was the Euro which saw the cold coming in November before the GEFS finally caught onto the idea.  IIRC, the GEFS were advertising a warmer look for this cold period back in late October.  With that being said, here we are experiencing a wintery stretch for the next 10 days or so before the pattern flips (if you buy the Euro)....or...is it transient (if you buy the GEFS)???

 

Here are my thoughts and why I believe the GEFS may have the right idea.  Firstly, I'm a big believer that the GEFS do a very good job sniffing out the Strat pattern in the Week 2 period, of which, they are suggesting another impulse that should perturb the Polar Vortex during Thanksgiving week and this will "seed" or "reload" major cold into NW/W Canada right before Thanksgiving.  To the contrary, the EPS have been steadfast on the idea that a huge ridge builds across the central/eastern CONUS during this same period.  It could be right, but IMHO, this season has not shown this type of pattern at all and I don't necessarily believe it.  The pattern which has been evolving across the N PAC/Bearing Sea suggest otherwise.

 

Around the 18th, I do feel the western ridge will build into the Plains/MW for a period and this will likely be a "reloading" period as we wait for the next system right around the 11/22 time period.  I've mentioned this before, but I think this may be the early October system that is part of the opening days of the LRC.  There was a massive system near the Aleutians back on Nov 1st-3rd that correlates with this potential storm date.  In essence, I'm thinking we will see the beginning of LRC cycle #2 during this period.  Everything that I'm seeing off the GEFS matches up to the pattern we saw in early October when western Canada loaded up with early season cold and there was a NE PAC ridge that built up as well....a pattern similar to a La Nina flavor. 

 

gfs-ens_T2ma_namer_59.png

 

Speaking of La Nina, today's JMA weeklies are actually hinting of that same idea as well.  Look at the EC ridge, western trough, and NE PAC ridge. All of this makes sense to me and why I believe that Thanksgiving week will be a crucial one to see if we are indeed going to re-cycle into the same pattern we saw in early October.

 

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R14_3/Y201811.D0712_gl0.png

 

 

 

Temps during the Week 3-4 period show the warmth potential...you can see the cold building in NW NAMER from this model and a likely battle ground setting up across the central CONUS.

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R14_3/Y201811.D0712_gl2.png

 

 

Lastly, here's a map from Dr. Cohen showing the wave pulse late in Week 2....this is bigly and timely for the Thanksgiving week reloading period.

 

 

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For comparison reasons, check out both the GEFS/EPS forecasts for Thanksgiving as they are starting to hone in on the building NE PAC ridge, western trough, alongside Canadian ridging which will help aid blocking HP's across Canada seeding cold into the lower 48 pattern.

 

gfs-ens_mslpaNorm_namer_59.png

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The signal is there, about 10 days ago, the GEFS "saw" the possibility of a pulse of energy transfer across Eurasia and it's "seeing" it again during the same longer range period.  Below is the map showing the pulse which is ongoing across Eurasia....

 

 

 

gfs-ens_Tz10_nhem_5.png

 

 

Looking out ahead, this is the same type of signal it saw in late October for the aforementioned Week 2 period that is forthcoming....

 

gfs-ens_Tz10_nhem_33.png

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While I don't like to say too much before a event and to me the current temperatures here are too warm (I have 37 here at my house now) but all that said the GRR NWS has issued a Winter Weather Advisory starting later tonight.

 

  DISCUSSION  

(TODAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 311 AM EST THU NOV 8 2018  
 
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE TWO PART EVENT  
UPCOMING ON THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FIRST PART IS  
THE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE  
GREAT LAKES REGION AS AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH GOES NEGATIVE TILT.  
AREA OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF SNOW THAT  
SHOULD BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO OVERCOME ABOVE FREEZING SKIN  
TEMPERATURES AND ACCUMULATE ON ROADS THURSDAY EVENING.  
 
AIR TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING BY THE MORNING COMMUTE.  
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL NOT BE HEAVY, GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES,  
BUT THE COMBINATION OF SNOWY ROADS DURING RUSH HOUR AND THIS BEING  
THE FIRST SNOW OF THE SEASON WAS ENOUGH TO ISSUE THE ADVISORY.  
 
THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE SNOW FRIDAY EVENING THEN LAKE EFFECT  
SNOW BEGINS AS UPPER LOW PIVOTS ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN WITH DEEP  
MOISTURE AND LACK OF INVERSION IN NORTHWEST FLOW OF ARCTIC AIR  
WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN VIGOROUS SNOW BANDS PRODUCING 1 TO 2 INCH  
AN HOUR SNOW RATES BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND SUNRISE ON SATURDAY.  
ALTHOUGH THIS IS A QUICK HITTER AS INVERSION HEIGHTS COME DOWN  
QUICKLY AFTER THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD SATURDAY MORNING,  
THERE IS THE GOOD CHANCE OF AN AREA OF 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW WITH  
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE FAVORED NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE  
EFFECT SNOW AREA OVER OUR NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST ZONES.  
 
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A CLIPPER  
BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WE WILL HAVE  
TO WATCH THE SOUTHERN STREAM COMPONENT DURING THIS TIME AS THERE  
IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SE LOWER MICHIGAN TO BE AFFECTED BY THE  
F-GEN SNOWS OF A DEVELOPING LOW MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST U.S.  
 

We will have to see if and how this plays out

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Currently at 38F w partly to mostly cloudy skies and not as breezy, thankfully.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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While I don't like to say too much before a event and to me the current temperatures here are too warm (I have 37 here at my house now) but all that said the GRR NWS has issued a Winter Weather Advisory starting later tonight.

 

  DISCUSSION  

(TODAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)  

ISSUED AT 311 AM EST THU NOV 8 2018  

 

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE TWO PART EVENT  

UPCOMING ON THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FIRST PART IS  

THE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE  

GREAT LAKES REGION AS AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH GOES NEGATIVE TILT.  

AREA OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF SNOW THAT  

SHOULD BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO OVERCOME ABOVE FREEZING SKIN  

TEMPERATURES AND ACCUMULATE ON ROADS THURSDAY EVENING.  

 

AIR TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING BY THE MORNING COMMUTE.  

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL NOT BE HEAVY, GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES,  

BUT THE COMBINATION OF SNOWY ROADS DURING RUSH HOUR AND THIS BEING  

THE FIRST SNOW OF THE SEASON WAS ENOUGH TO ISSUE THE ADVISORY.  

 

THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE SNOW FRIDAY EVENING THEN LAKE EFFECT  

SNOW BEGINS AS UPPER LOW PIVOTS ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN WITH DEEP  

MOISTURE AND LACK OF INVERSION IN NORTHWEST FLOW OF ARCTIC AIR  

WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN VIGOROUS SNOW BANDS PRODUCING 1 TO 2 INCH  

AN HOUR SNOW RATES BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND SUNRISE ON SATURDAY.  

ALTHOUGH THIS IS A QUICK HITTER AS INVERSION HEIGHTS COME DOWN  

QUICKLY AFTER THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD SATURDAY MORNING,  

THERE IS THE GOOD CHANCE OF AN AREA OF 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW WITH  

LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE FAVORED NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE  

EFFECT SNOW AREA OVER OUR NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST ZONES.  

 

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A CLIPPER  

BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WE WILL HAVE  

TO WATCH THE SOUTHERN STREAM COMPONENT DURING THIS TIME AS THERE  

IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SE LOWER MICHIGAN TO BE AFFECTED BY THE  

F-GEN SNOWS OF A DEVELOPING LOW MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST U.S.  

 

We will have to see if and how this plays out

That needs to be watched for my area. Could be my real first accumulating snowfall of the season.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Snowing again here! Everything appears to be sticking. Driveway is already covered. Looks like SPS is under a slightly heavier band too!

Nice! The wife and I decided to fly to Nashville for a few days so I’m missing it. Not exactly warm here either but it’s not snowing.

 

Edit: just checked the driveway cam at home and the driveway is covered with snow. Awesome!

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worried this is gonna be a repeat all winter....south and east. May also jinx the cold as I am attempting a backyard skating rink for the first time this year.

 

:huh: Dude. Yesterday's slow mover would've provided snow in Wisco were it winter. You won't be shut-out

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Gosh, I don't know where to begin this morning as I'm both excited to see the snow falling, as well as, the trends in the models for Week 2.  With the landscape transformed this morning, Winter has arrived here in Chicago.  Everything is coated in snow and the remaining leaves on some of the trees are falling off quickly.  By the end of this weekend, I'd imagine almost all the trees will be bare from the strong winds later today and I could finally perform my last rake of the season later next week.

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Confidence is growing that the tail end of Thanksgiving week, Winter is going to lock and rock, setting the stage for a memorable winter.  A Turkey Day warm up is in the cards and some places will get a welcomed "brief" taste of Indian Summer before mother nature puts down the hammer.  Not only the GEFS, but the Canadian is seeing a similar scenario organizing Week 2 in the Strat, which has lead us to our ongoing cold stretch.  

 

I've had a long standing date in mind, centered around 11/22, where the pattern may begin re-cycling.  Not only is this important, but some of the models are showcasing an ominous sign the Strat is going to deliver some intriguing signs for extreme cold to close out the month.  Check out the GEPS/GEFS Strat forecasts on Thanksgiving Day....

 

gem-ens_Tz10_nhem_28.png

 

 

gfs-ens_Tz10_nhem_27.png

 

 

Both models are catching onto the idea of a perturbed Polar Vortex and funneling extreme cold into North America.  At 500mb, both models are aligning with a Cross Polar flow and another key component is organizing, the Scandinavian Ridge, which, if you remember, was an impactful force which lead to the "Polar Vortex Split" later in the season.

 

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_55.png

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Gosh, I don't know where to begin this morning as I'm both excited to see the snow falling, as well as, the trends in the models for Week 2.  With the landscape transformed this morning, Winter has arrived here in Chicago.  Everything is coated in snow and the remaining leaves on some of the trees are falling off quickly.  By the end of this weekend, I'd imagine almost all the trees will be bare from the strong winds later today and I could finally perform my last rake of the season later next week.

 

Tree damage was a problem here, it was the only negative to a beautiful snow.

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First snow fall of the 2018/19 winter season here. At this time getting light to at times moderate snow fall. At this time the flake size is rather large and I have just over 0.7" of snow on the snow board. The grass, car and roof tops are covered and areas where there are a lot of fallen leaves on the road are also snow covered, But the road and driveways are just wet. 

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Ok...so, I just realized that I have not even gotten my snowblower ready yet for Winter. :lol: Will not need it for this round, but eventually, when the big dogs hit, I'd betta have it ready.  :blink:

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Still snowing moderately. Temp at 32F. :ph34r:

 

Edit: next week looks brutal. After Tuesday snow system, bottom falls out. Highs on Wednesday in the mid to upper 20s and lows in the teens. BRRRRRRR!!!!

 

Is this November or December?! :rolleyes:

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Woke up to a balmy 15. Brisk wind is making it feel much colder. I believe temps right now are resembling some where in late December, not early November... Would be scared to see these types of anomalies in January...

You are correct. I will have to check the records to find a day in Central Nebraska where at 1 pm it is still 18 degrees with wind chills close to 0. December to March could be brutal

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You are correct. I will have to check the records to find a day in Central Nebraska where at 1 pm it is still 18 degrees with wind chills close to 0. December to March could be brutal

 

"Teeth Chattering" you meant  ;)

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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I think the EC storm will clip SEMI early next and could provide more substantial snowfall here. Temps will be also a lot colder. Something to watch for. Jaster, I think you are a bit too far west for this one buddy, but, no worries because you will get LES. ;)

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Outside of the cold, not really seeing much to track the next 7-10 days.  Models have been pretty quiet.  

Yeah, a lot of arctic cold with little to show for it.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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#iceboxnation in the evening :blink:

 

20181109 act temps 2130 EDT.jpg

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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A balmy 29F here compare to you guys out west in the Plains.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Currently at 27F w windy conditions and wcf at 17F w mostly cloudy skies. Its cold outside.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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In regards to next weeks system, it looks iffy on whether the storm on the EC will come close enough to clip the SEMI area.

 

Per NOAA:

A low will develop over the southeast US and deepen as it tracks
through the eastern seaboard on Tuesday. The Euro and Canadian
solutions continue to give a chance for the northwest extent of the
snow shield to clip our southeastern counties, but the GFS remains
steadfast in holding the system`s precip off to the east.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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In regards to next weeks system, it looks iffy on whether the storm on the EC will come close enough to clip the SEMI area.

 

Per NOAA:

A low will develop over the southeast US and deepen as it tracks

through the eastern seaboard on Tuesday. The Euro and Canadian

solutions continue to give a chance for the northwest extent of the

snow shield to clip our southeastern counties, but the GFS remains

steadfast in holding the system`s precip off to the east.

 

GFS has a SE bias. At least it did in years past. Who knows anymore, but I'll be interested to see if DTW gets in on the snow.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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GFS has a SE bias. At least it did in years past. Who knows anymore, but I'll be interested to see if DTW gets in on the snow.

True, hopefully, by tomorrow or Sunday, models will have a better handled of this situation. I wonder what the NAM thinks.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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