November 2018 Observations and Discussion

[Andie]

So Houston and far NE Texas can get snow, but DFW can't. Mehhh.

 

I think there will be other chances. Besides, my heat pump blew a control panel and I'm on emergency heat, ....which stinks.

 

Low of 30* last night. Felt colder. High of 49*.

[Stormgeek]

Already 40 out there today and it feels like a heat wave! Snow is taking a beating after not melting for over a week. Just noticed on my way to school this morning that the Mississippi is full of pieces of ice. Don't typically see that until at least after Thanksgiving; usually much later. Going to soak in this "warmth" (average high) before we take a dip back into the icebox! A bit pessimistic that this cold air might suppress the storm track and all precip would come from clippers in this neck of the woods. Cool to see Texas already getting snow though!

[CentralNebWeather]

Looks like it's going to be another cold Husker game this weekend, maybe with a few snowflakes this time.

We went last week, just brutally cold.  Had a chance to go this weekend but the man cave with a comfy chair, refrig, refreshments, and bathroom seem like the way to go.

[Niko]

Currently at 27F w increasing cloudiness and light winds. I can smell the snow in the air.

[Niko]

Hard to measure due to the warmth still near the lake(Seems to melt quicker than inland), but I've had around 3.1".  GRR has had more for sure, though not sure the total.  

Awesome.

[Niko]

 

That dark blue color right on MBY (0.5"). Sweet!

[jaster220]

Currently at 27F w increasing cloudiness and light winds. I can smell the snow in the air.

NAM, WRF, & RGEM seem to treat SMI the best. Each paints some areas (Central or east) getting 4+ from tomorrow's ULL storm. Then, depending on track several models tack on more snow with the weekend clipper. I think the GFS has the most favorable scenario. Strong sun all day melted off a fair amount of the light-duty blanket but still plenty around. Would be crazy wild if plow piles from the 10th of November never melt off completely till spring!

[jaster220]

Didn't take long for the EC to get in on the action. Our Plains peeps need a reset button pushed!

[Niko]

NAM, WRF, & RGEM seem to treat SMI the best. Each paints some areas (Central or east) getting 4+ from tomorrow's ULL storm. Then, depending on track several models tack on more snow with the weekend clipper. I think the GFS has the most favorable scenario. Strong sun all day melted off a fair amount of the light-duty blanket but still plenty around. Would be crazy wild if plow piles from the 10th of November never melt off completely till spring!

True. Look at all that precip in the south. Ton of moisture.

http://images.intellicast.com/WxImages/_200w/Radar/usa.gif

[jaster220]

Courtesy of Hoosier on the rare air STL may be on the verge of entering

 

The list to watch for St. Louis. All 3"+ calendar day snows in November. It has been 38 years since it happened. As you can see, most of these are the 20th or later and the only year that did it between the 1st and 15th was 1951.

 

7.6" 11/26/1975

 

6.9" 11/06/1951

 

6.5" 11/28/1929

 

6.2" 11/17/1926

 

5.7" 11/27/1980

 

5.5" 11/27/1977

 

5.2" 11/19/1972

 

4.0" 11/26/1895

 

3.4" 11/05/1951

 

3.4" 11/23/1938

 

3.3" 11/28/1958

 

3.3" 11/20/1926

 

3.0" 11/23/1941

[jaster220]

KPAH even more rare

 

[Niko]

Clouds have rolled in. Temp is at 24F. BRRR. Snow on the way!

[jaster220]

GRR's pm thoughts..

 

 

DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Wednesday)

Issued at 323 PM EST Wed Nov 14 2018

 

Primary forecast issue will be for p-type and amounts on Thursday

afternoon and evening. This will be another case similar to Monday

evening where impacts to travel could be made worse if skin

temperatures fall below freezing, which could happen after dusk on

Thursday.

 

Most of the model soundings show that this event should start as

snow or change over to snow quickly as the the lower levels

saturate and wet bulb temperatures are below freezing through the

depth of the column. We are looking at about a 6 hour period

roughly from 3 pm to 9 pm where an area of mid-level F-gen would

be favorable for the formation of mesoscale banding across the

southern half of the forecast area.

 

Skin temperatures will be above freezing at the onset but should

go below freezing around 6 pm to 7 pm with the potential for some

icing on roads after that. Still too early to get a more specific

handle on this, along with confidence on travel impacts. We will

hold off on an advisory for now given the marginal nature of the

event.

 

After the F-gen banding winds down Thursday evening, a northern

stream shortwave trough axis comes through Friday morning with

some light snow or snow showers across the northern zones. This

shouldn`t amount to much. A sfc front generates enough convergence

to bring another round of light snow Saturday morning. Fair and

cold after that, until a clipper brings the chance of more light

snow early next week.

 

&&

[Niko]

GRR's pm thoughts..

 

 

DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Wednesday)

Issued at 323 PM EST Wed Nov 14 2018

 

Primary forecast issue will be for p-type and amounts on Thursday

afternoon and evening. This will be another case similar to Monday

evening where impacts to travel could be made worse if skin

temperatures fall below freezing, which could happen after dusk on

Thursday.

 

Most of the model soundings show that this event should start as

snow or change over to snow quickly as the the lower levels

saturate and wet bulb temperatures are below freezing through the

depth of the column. We are looking at about a 6 hour period

roughly from 3 pm to 9 pm where an area of mid-level F-gen would

be favorable for the formation of mesoscale banding across the

southern half of the forecast area.

 

Skin temperatures will be above freezing at the onset but should

go below freezing around 6 pm to 7 pm with the potential for some

icing on roads after that. Still too early to get a more specific

handle on this, along with confidence on travel impacts. We will

hold off on an advisory for now given the marginal nature of the

event.

 

After the F-gen banding winds down Thursday evening, a northern

stream shortwave trough axis comes through Friday morning with

some light snow or snow showers across the northern zones. This

shouldn`t amount to much. A sfc front generates enough convergence

to bring another round of light snow Saturday morning. Fair and

cold after that, until a clipper brings the chance of more light

snow early next week.

 

&&

This could easily over perform.

[Tom]

What a beauty of a storm traversing the region.  Even though this system isn't impacting my area, it is quite a juicy system and a sign of the strength these large scale systems have developed into this season.  This is likely going to continue throughout the remainder of this winter.  Meanwhile, the JMA weeklies have come in and are showcasing a snap back into an all-out winter ride to close out November and open December.

 

First off, can you paint a better SST configuration in the PAC???  Just beautiful...

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R07_2/Y201811.D1412_gls.png

 

Temps Week 2...about average

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R07_2/Y201811.D1412_gl2.png

 

NE PAC/NW NAMER ridge pops Week 2 which fits the beginning of the LRC pattern...Aleutian Low locks in and sets the stage for a wild December.

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R07_2/Y201811.D1412_gl0.png

 

Temps Week 3-4...

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R14_3/Y201811.D1412_gl2.png

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R14_3/Y201811.D1412_gl0.png

[jaster220]

Snow shield approaching entering The Mitt. Must have a bit of dry air to overcome. Not much falling yet here at KJXN

 

[jaster220]

Tom, you gonna see some flakes flying too, yes?? 

[Niko]

Snow on the way w current temp at 29F w cloudy skies. . Couple inches likely to fall.

[jaster220]

Mid-winter feel this am with 30F, overcast and lowering skies, frozen ponds and puddles, and varying snow cover from little in open areas to nearly full in shady areas and north facing hillsides. 

[Niko]

Snow shield approaching entering The Mitt. Must have a bit of dry air to overcome. Not much falling yet here at KJXN

 

20181115 0830 radar.PNG

 I am thinking soon, you will see snow flying.

[Niko]

Snow knocking on my doorstep!

[Tom]

Tom, you gonna see some flakes flying too, yes??

Yup, just some flurries ATM...As I type this, it’s picked up to a very light snow. I have the day off today so I’m actually finishing up my last rake/yard work day of the season. This is a first for me to see it snowing while raking the leaves. I actually got goose bumps when I first saw them falling out of the sky. I’ll never forgot that moment. Def one of those images where you admire nature.

[jaster220]

KRMY back home reporting moderate snow falling now, but temp is +1 C so may not be accumulating as efficiently as hoped for. 

[jaster220]

Yup, just some flurries ATM...As I type this, it’s picked up to a very light snow. I have the day off today so I’m actually finishing up my last rake/yard work day of the season. This is a first for me to see it snowing while raking the leaves. I actually got goose bumps when I first saw them falling out of the sky. I’ll never forgot that moment. Def one of those images where you admire nature.

 

Envious of that. Mby (literally in this case) remains a mess. Gonna need a dry Sat or Sunday without snow OTG to finish up at my place. Enjoy your snow and have a great day off!

[Niko]

KRMY back home reporting moderate snow falling now, but temp is +1 C so may not be accumulating as efficiently as hoped for. 

No worries. Temps will start falling, once the snow begins.

[westMJim]

Cloudy here with a temperature of 32° I can see blue sky to the north so the cloud shield is just overhead.  The low since midnight here was 24.1° but it got down to 23.8° before midnight and before some clouds moved in.

[Niko]

The snow has begun. Current temp at 32F. Everything starting to whiten up and coming down light to moderate at times.

[Niko]

PER TWC: just updated and upped my snowfall totals:

 

Periods of snow. Temps nearly steady in the mid 30s. Winds ESE at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow 90%. 3 to 5 inches of snow expected.

[Tom]

Envious of that. Mby (literally in this case) remains a mess. Gonna need a dry Sat or Sunday without snow OTG to finish up at my place. Enjoy your snow and have a great day off!

This is a day I won't forget.  I literally just finished mowing my lawn and then the snow started coming down hard!  It's a moderate snowfall with fatty flakes...I gotta say, perfect timing!  Ha!

 

The northern edge of this band is pivoting just right over here....

 

 

 

LOT put this up not long ago...

 

[Tony]

Came down pretty hard there for a bit....very nice.

[Meichel]

Nice looking stuff in 60156!

[Niko]

@Jaster:

 

What is your status buddy? I am assuming you are getting moderate snow currently, just by looking at my local radar.

[jaster220]

 

 

Special Weather StatementSpecial Weather Statement

National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI

1100 AM EST THU NOV 15 2018

 

MIZ064>067-071>074-151800-

Kalamazoo-Ingham-Calhoun-Eaton-Allegan-Barry-Van Buren-Jackson-

1100 AM EST THU NOV 15 2018

 

...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IMPACTING CALHOUN...ALLEGAN...VAN BUREN...

JACKSON...SOUTHERN KENT...SOUTHERN OTTAWA...INGHAM...SOUTHERN

IONIA...BARRY...SOUTHEASTERN CLINTON...KALAMAZOO AND EATON

COUNTIES...

 

At 1100 AM EST, moderate to heavy snow was falling along and south

of a line from Saugatuck to Lansing. The heavy snowfall rates will

lead to slippery and snow-covered roads as well as visibilities at

or below 1/2 mile at times. The heaviest snow is expected to end

early this afternoon. As such, motorists are encouraged to travel at

appropriate speeds and allow for extra stopping distances.

 

Locations impacted include...

Lansing... Kalamazoo... Portage...

Jackson... Holland... Charlotte...

Albion... Mason... Hastings...

Marshall... Eaton Rapids... Allegan...

South Haven... Plainwell... Paw Paw...

Waverly... Van Buren SP... Westwood...

Vandercook Lake... Haslett...

 

LAT...LON 4207 8622 4224 8622 4224 8636 4247 8625

4277 8621 4277 8416 4207 8413

TIME...MOT...LOC 1557Z 178DEG 23KT 4246 8533

[jaster220]

@Jaster:

 

What is your status buddy? I am assuming you are getting moderate snow currently, just by looking at my local radar.

 

@ work and not free to respond frequently like when I'm home, lol.  Just peeked outside and looks like there was a 1/2" of snow with that briefly heavy band, but now it's more of a mix falling tbh. Temps in Marshall up now to 34F so slushy is the theme of today's snow here. 

[Niko]

@ work and not free to respond frequently like when I'm home, lol.  Just peeked outside and looks like there was a 1/2" of snow with that briefly heavy band, but now it's more of a mix falling tbh. Temps in Marshall up now to 34F so slushy is the theme of today's snow here. 

The column should start cooling off and temps dropping at freezing or below as the day wares on. Look for icy spots. I can see your area getting some minor accumulations, although, I can also see a surprise with this one as well.

[jaster220]

1st wave about thru here, then a break in the action but I see more snow returns filling in over NWOH heading towards Marshall. Net gains/losses in snow cover will depend highly upon surface temps. Prolly why so many models were only showing 1-2" accum's over SWMI despite the uptick in qpf with the system staying further west vs shunting east as depicted a few days back. 

 

@ Niko - you've got a SWS as well now i see. Enjoy the flying flakes. Parking lot here was an icy mess fyi

[St Paul Storm]

Congrats Chicago and MI peeps on the snow today.

 

Tomorrow’s system coming in from the NW looking at a bit more interesting. Trends today are north on most models. Might be a nice little hit.

[westMJim]

Been getting light snow here since 12 noon. Not much on the ground just white spots on the grass the road is just wet, The current temperature here is 32°

[Niko]

1st wave about thru here, then a break in the action but I see more snow returns filling in over NWOH heading towards Marshall. Net gains/losses in snow cover will depend highly upon surface temps. Prolly why so many models were only showing 1-2" accum's over SWMI despite the uptick in qpf with the system staying further west vs shunting east as depicted a few days back. 

 

@ Niko - you've got a SWS as well now i see. Enjoy the flying flakes. Parking lot here was an icy mess fyi

Went for a drive to see the roads and tbh, the sideroads are very slippery. Even the main roads are starting to get a bit slushy. At times, getting a mix, then, transitioning back to snow.

[jaster220]

Pound town here in Jackson right now!  Very nice dendrites, near fatties..