November 2018 Observations and Discussion

[Esquimalt]

There's been a definite trend on the last few GFS runs towards downplaying the cold in the first and second week of November out towards Michigan and Ontario.  Has the EPS flipped as well, or are there still strong cold signs? 

[Tom]

There's been a definite trend on the last few GFS runs towards downplaying the cold in the first and second week of November out towards Michigan and Ontario. Has the EPS flipped as well, or are there still strong cold signs?

Not at all, it’s even gotten colder for Week 2, esp after the 7th post storm potential.

[Andie]

This is an awesome pattern with a few tweaks. Crazy.

Things will begin to get interesting.

I better get that yard work done!

[jaster220]

There's been a definite trend on the last few GFS runs towards downplaying the cold in the first and second week of November out towards Michigan and Ontario.  Has the EPS flipped as well, or are there still strong cold signs? 

 

Not at all, it’s even gotten colder for Week 2, esp after the 7th post storm potential.

 

JB's Sat Summary showed clearly that the GFS has major issues with 2m temps. He showed side-by-side comparisons of the Euro's (which he says is doing a great job with the cold btw) forecast at 500mb, 850mb temps, and 2m temps. Then he showed the same (3) maps off of the GFS and the first two aligned very well, but the 2m temps were wacked. It's either a warm bias (known to exist at d10+ range) or they tweaked the software to correct last winter's shameful over-playing of cold, and went too far with it in the opposite direction. He didn't say which he thought was the cause, but those are my two hunches.

 

To me it means that the GFS may well be in "catch-up mode" precip type when it comes to these marginal profile storms. For instance a storm ten days out may look like a total rainer on the GFS, then you get to 120 hrs and it begins to look colder and snowier.

[Esquimalt]

JB's Sat Summary showed clearly that the GFS has major issues with 2m temps. He showed side-by-side comparisons of the Euro's (which he says is doing a great job with the cold btw) forecast at 500mb, 850mb temps, and 2m temps. Then he showed the same (3) maps off of the GFS and the first two aligned very well, but the 2m temps were wacked. It's either a warm bias (known to exist at d10+ range) or they tweaked the software to correct last winter's shameful over-playing of cold, and went too far with it in the opposite direction. He didn't say which he thought was the cause, but those are my two hunches.

 

To me it means that the GFS may well be in "catch-up mode" precip type when it comes to these marginal profile storms. For instance a storm ten days out may look like a total rainer on the GFS, then you get to 120 hrs and it begins to look colder and snowier.

Thanks for your answer. But that’s Joe Bastardi, who has a known cold bias. Can we trust him on these issues?

[jaster220]

Here ya go OKwx2k4......get ready....

 

http://www.news9.com/story/39362303/david-paynes-2018-19-oklahoma-winter-weather-forecast

 

Edit: Hopefully your storms will inundate my area.

 

Very well done prediction. Hits about every key contributor and sums it up to what should be a fantastic and quite potentially historic season for that region. I like that he paints the proper Modoki Nino moisture pattern as well with the GL's being above normal, in contrast to several of the models and NOAA's outlook.

[jaster220]

Thanks for your answer. But that’s Joe Bastardi, who has a known cold bias. Can we trust him on these issues?

 

He does like his cold, but this was a simple case of comparing (with actual maps) the two models and what they showed. There's really zero room for bias in that case. Basically, his point was that the GFS's warmer 2m temps were at odds with it's own 500 & 850 mb counterparts. He didn't even say that he thought it was going to be colder (which would be his bias showing thru, lol) but he felt that the Euro has done much better with the ongoing cold regime.

[Esquimalt]

He does like his cold, but this was a simple case of comparing (with actual maps) the two models and what they showed. There's really zero room for bias in that case. Basically, his point was that the GFS's warmer 2m temps were at odds with it's own 500 & 850 mb counterparts. He didn't even say that he thought it was going to be colder (which would be his bias showing thru, lol) but he felt that the Euro has done much better with the ongoing cold regime.

Okay fair. What is the EPS saying for the day 10 to 15 mean anomaly now? That is what I follow often for my temps that are a couple of weeks off.

[jaster220]

Tom or somebody with a current subscription could better answer that. I may sign up for a pay site with the looming winter, otherwise my focus is usually 120 hrs or less. I will look at the longer range maps, if only to make my tongue-in-cheek posts on fantasy storms, etc..

[Tom]

Okay fair. What is the EPS saying for the day 10 to 15 mean anomaly now? That is what I follow often for my temps that are a couple of weeks off.

Don’t forget to pack your gloves or an extra scarf, it’s going to be cold. As Jaster said, GEFS have been doing bad and surprisingly, the EPS has been doing quite well with the -EPO forecast which it has known to miss in recent years. It’s also seeing the blocking across the high lats and delivering the cold. I’m not seeing any pullback just yet.

[jaster220]

I want this 48 hr loop for Christmas, but in "winter white version" for the holidays   

 

This may be the strongest fantasy bomb shown SOUTH of mby since I've been paying attention to such things. Idk if this new model is simply clueless, or if there's truly this kind of potential in play with this pattern? Sure has me day dreaming of the potentials down the road tho

 

 

 

[OKwx2k4]

As many have posted above, once the Atlantic tropics shut down, the euro hit stride and never touched the brakes after that. It has caught some pattern details very quickly, from my understanding, almost to the point of being able to call out the djustments 3-4 days ahead and watching them fall in line. I'd say that's remarkably accurate. It is fallible, but it's carrying the load right now.

[OKwx2k4]

The CFS has a predictable flip-flip-lock pattern that has been well-illustrated by Tom, myself and several others since probably are June. As long as it is predictably wrong, it can still be used by its biases. Everyone (generally) knows what high lat ridging does with a ridge parked over the PNW/Central AK area. Something to keep in mind, if a model is wrong with a main feature at 500mb, none of it will be correct at 2m, with precip, etc...until within 2-3 days. That was one of the coolest things about 2009-10 and 2013-14. The surprises were pretty cool but the patterns were easy to extrapolate out, if I recall correctly.

[OKwx2k4]

Thsts a beautiful storm, jaster.

[Tom]

The CFS has a predictable flip-flip-lock pattern that has been well-illustrated by Tom, myself and several others since probably are June. As long as it is predictably wrong, it can still be used by its biases. Everyone (generally) knows what high lat ridging does with a ridge parked over the PNW/Central AK area. Something to keep in mind, if a model is wrong with a main feature at 500mb, none of it will be correct at 2m, with precip, etc...until within 2-3 days. That was one of the coolest things about 2009-10 and 2013-14. The surprises were pretty cool but the patterns were easy to extrapolate out, if I recall correctly.

This season, the Euro/EPS are doing a MUCH better job handling the warm "blob" in the NE PAC compared to the other models.  As you mentioned, the blocking is becoming a key component and placement of the ridging across Canada/AK/ and both US coasts are beautiful to see as the storm track parks itself across our board.  I'm encouraged to see all of these elements literally coming together in harmony.  BTW, I like what I'm seeing with the first real opportunity of a Arklatex-type storm opening up the month and tracking towards the Lower Lakes.  The way systems are digging this season are very interesting going forward.

[Tom]

I counted 3 systems to effect the MW/GL's region during this first 7 days of the month.  Fun pattern and a busy one.

 

The reversal of the Hudson Bay/Archipelago vortex into a Hudson Bay/Archipelago Ride is a big deal.  These type of blocks are known to create a favorable storm track across our sub, esp with a SE ridge signal.  Models are suggesting this block to break down after the 8th or so but before that happens, we'll stay busy tracking systems.

[Niko]

I want this 48 hr loop for Christmas, but in "winter white version" for the holidays 

 

This may be the strongest fantasy bomb shown SOUTH of mby since I've been paying attention to such things. Idk if this new model is simply clueless, or if there's truly this kind of potential in play with this pattern? Sure has me day dreaming of the potentials down the road tho

 

20181028 18z fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh210-258.gif

Dang!

[Hawkeye]

It really doesn't look too exciting for the Nebraska/Iowa part of the region.  Models have trended toward a fast wnw/nw flow in which several systems race through the area, but don't really pull in a lot of moisture or rev up until they get into the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes.  The euro doesn't even show any sub-freezing low temps here through ten days... just cool days and meh nights, probably with plenty of cloud cover.

[CentralNebWeather]

It really doesn't look too exciting for the Nebraska/Iowa part of the region.  Models have trended toward a fast wnw/nw flow in which several systems race through the area, but don't really pull in a lot of moisture or rev up until they get into the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes.  The euro doesn't even show any sub-freezing low temps here through ten days... just cool days and meh nights, probably with plenty of cloud cover.

Looks really quiet around here for the next 10 days or so.  Maybe a system in the Nov. 10-11th time frame.  This northwesterly flow pattern is really not conducive to much moisture in my area.  Probably will be in and out of windy systems with very little moisture.  Will need this pattern to become more southwestly and slow down if we want anything of value around here imo.

[bud2380]

I'd love a bout of Indian Summer personally.  It's been such a cool fall.  I'd personally rather see warm weather until about Thanksgiving, then bring on snow.  But no warm weather in sight.  

[CentralNebWeather]

This might be a fun system.  Too bad it is at 384 hours on the GFS.

[Niko]

I can see my snow chances increasing by late November here in SEMI. Anything prior to that during holiday traveling (Thanksgiving) would be bad timing, as that would make traveling by air or by car very difficult and cause delays, if not cancellations.

[jaster220]

I can see my snow chances increasing by late November here in SEMI. Anything prior to that during holiday traveling (Thanksgiving) would be bad timing, as that would make traveling by air or by car very difficult and cause delays, if not cancellations.

 

 See both '74 and '75 for that scenario in The Motor City

[Esquimalt]

A couple of the last GFS runs have shown what could potentially be big snowmakers between the 8th and the 15th out east...including ones one massive 985 Mb low on the 18Z and a 991 mb system on the 00Z.  Exciting times!

[CentralNebWeather]

A couple of the last GFS runs have shown what could potentially be big snowmakers between the 8th and the 15th out east...including ones one massive 985 Mb low on the 18Z and a 991 mb system on the 00Z. Exciting times!

You are correct. GFS and the new PV3 GFS are showing a very active time as the calendar turns into the 2nd week of November

[jaster220]

Yeah, and b4 those, Euro takes the perfect track with this week's system....a month too early for white stuff ofc

 

[Esquimalt]

Yeah, and b4 those, Euro takes the perfect track with this week's system....a month too early for white stuff ofc

 

20181029 ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_fh48-120.gif

Well I would appreciate a little compassion.  There are years (were 3 consecutive a little while ago) where I didn't see a single snowflake lol.    

[jaster220]

A couple of the last GFS runs have shown what could potentially be big snowmakers between the 8th and the 15th out east...including ones one massive 985 Mb low on the 18Z and a 991 mb system on the 00Z.  Exciting times!

 

d*mn, guess I needed to loop the 18z a bit further, thx for pointing this out Esquimalt

[Esquimalt]

d*mn, guess I needed to loop the 18z a bit further, thx for pointing this out Esquimalt

geez, the new form of gfs shows a 969 mb low. A little too far north for white stuff but nonetheless 969 mb in Ontario is some serious stuff.    

[jaster220]

Well I would appreciate a little compassion.  There are years (were 3 consecutive a little while ago) where I didn't see a single snowflake lol.    

 

I can't honestly appreciate your situation since I've not spent a winter anywhere like that. Here in The Mitt, it's been an almost 3 yr drought for SWMI without a significant storm taking the "golden track" shown on that Euro run. Despite normal or above snowfall, a lack of a major storm will eventually cause winter paranoia around these parts, lol

[jaster220]

Well I would appreciate a little compassion.  There are years (were 3 consecutive a little while ago) where I didn't see a single snowflake lol.    

 

Oh, and btw, I do hope you catch a nice storm when you come over our way to Ontario. Even if it's too warm down here in mby. Just based on climo alone you stand a very decent chance of scoring. What are your dates of visit again, and how far north will you be?

[Niko]

Yeah, and b4 those, Euro takes the perfect track with this week's system....a month too early for white stuff ofc

 

20181029 ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_fh48-120.gif

Cant get better than that.

[Niko]

No warm up in sight. Warmest readings I can find for my area in Nov are 50s. Bottom drops after the 20th.

[Niko]

Halloween night looking cloudish and chilly w temps in the 40s.

[jaster220]

Already a chilly 40F here. Heading for 35F by morning. Car could be frosty again depending on whether early onset of clouds via Wisco. Hardly catch a break between systems and I'm loving this real chill autumn pattern. Stepped outside to run up to the mkt, and smelled someone burning wood..ahhh what a nice aroma. Thought I was back in the forest of the Northland for a minute

[jaster220]

Halloween night looking cloudish and chilly w temps in the 40s.

 

may even be lingering rain, no?

[Niko]

may even be lingering rain, no?

Mainly dry, but would not be surprised if a few spotty showers pass by. Rain should end Wednesday morning and then, remaining cloudy for the remainder of the day.

[Grizzcoat]

00Z GFS has a nice shot of cold and light snows for much of the region on this sub forum on the 8th - 9th of NOV. This is something relatively new and doesn't really fit the teleconnections around the globe but lets hope it's on to something.....

[GDR]

Looks like the MJO is headed to phase 3 mid nov which means a warmer outlook also the cfsv2 is looking very toasty so will see.

[Grizzcoat]

Euro has a strong system even earlier than GFS. (just after Election Day). For the sake of simpliciity, I just did 240 HR as there really is no other systems that would affect these "fantasy" totals. One can dream- even in early NOV as I did go through Halloween SupeSnow of 1991.