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November 2018 Observations and Discussion

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#51
jaster220

Posted 28 October 2018 - 06:43 PM

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I want this 48 hr loop for Christmas, but in "winter white version" for the holidays  :lol: 

 

This may be the strongest fantasy bomb shown SOUTH of mby since I've been paying attention to such things. Idk if this new model is simply clueless, or if there's truly this kind of potential in play with this pattern? Sure has me day dreaming of the potentials down the road tho

 

Attached File  20181028 18z fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh210-258.gif   1.83MB   2 downloads

 

 


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#52
OKwx2k4

Posted 28 October 2018 - 08:47 PM

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As many have posted above, once the Atlantic tropics shut down, the euro hit stride and never touched the brakes after that. It has caught some pattern details very quickly, from my understanding, almost to the point of being able to call out the djustments 3-4 days ahead and watching them fall in line. I'd say that's remarkably accurate. It is fallible, but it's carrying the load right now.
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#53
OKwx2k4

Posted 28 October 2018 - 08:58 PM

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The CFS has a predictable flip-flip-lock pattern that has been well-illustrated by Tom, myself and several others since probably are June. As long as it is predictably wrong, it can still be used by its biases. Everyone (generally) knows what high lat ridging does with a ridge parked over the PNW/Central AK area. Something to keep in mind, if a model is wrong with a main feature at 500mb, none of it will be correct at 2m, with precip, etc...until within 2-3 days. That was one of the coolest things about 2009-10 and 2013-14. The surprises were pretty cool but the patterns were easy to extrapolate out, if I recall correctly.
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#54
OKwx2k4

Posted 28 October 2018 - 09:00 PM

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Thsts a beautiful storm, jaster.
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#55
Tom

Posted 29 October 2018 - 03:49 AM

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The CFS has a predictable flip-flip-lock pattern that has been well-illustrated by Tom, myself and several others since probably are June. As long as it is predictably wrong, it can still be used by its biases. Everyone (generally) knows what high lat ridging does with a ridge parked over the PNW/Central AK area. Something to keep in mind, if a model is wrong with a main feature at 500mb, none of it will be correct at 2m, with precip, etc...until within 2-3 days. That was one of the coolest things about 2009-10 and 2013-14. The surprises were pretty cool but the patterns were easy to extrapolate out, if I recall correctly.

This season, the Euro/EPS are doing a MUCH better job handling the warm "blob" in the NE PAC compared to the other models.  As you mentioned, the blocking is becoming a key component and placement of the ridging across Canada/AK/ and both US coasts are beautiful to see as the storm track parks itself across our board.  I'm encouraged to see all of these elements literally coming together in harmony.  BTW, I like what I'm seeing with the first real opportunity of a Arklatex-type storm opening up the month and tracking towards the Lower Lakes.  The way systems are digging this season are very interesting going forward.


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#56
Tom

Posted 29 October 2018 - 03:57 AM

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I counted 3 systems to effect the MW/GL's region during this first 7 days of the month.  Fun pattern and a busy one.

 

The reversal of the Hudson Bay/Archipelago vortex into a Hudson Bay/Archipelago Ride is a big deal.  These type of blocks are known to create a favorable storm track across our sub, esp with a SE ridge signal.  Models are suggesting this block to break down after the 8th or so but before that happens, we'll stay busy tracking systems.

Attached Files


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#57
Niko

Posted 29 October 2018 - 06:20 AM

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I want this 48 hr loop for Christmas, but in "winter white version" for the holidays  :lol:

 

This may be the strongest fantasy bomb shown SOUTH of mby since I've been paying attention to such things. Idk if this new model is simply clueless, or if there's truly this kind of potential in play with this pattern? Sure has me day dreaming of the potentials down the road tho

 

attachicon.gif20181028 18z fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh210-258.gif

Dang! :o



#58
Hawkeye

Posted 29 October 2018 - 06:40 AM

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It really doesn't look too exciting for the Nebraska/Iowa part of the region.  Models have trended toward a fast wnw/nw flow in which several systems race through the area, but don't really pull in a lot of moisture or rev up until they get into the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes.  The euro doesn't even show any sub-freezing low temps here through ten days... just cool days and meh nights, probably with plenty of cloud cover.


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season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#59
CentralNebWeather

Posted 29 October 2018 - 07:57 AM

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It really doesn't look too exciting for the Nebraska/Iowa part of the region.  Models have trended toward a fast wnw/nw flow in which several systems race through the area, but don't really pull in a lot of moisture or rev up until they get into the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes.  The euro doesn't even show any sub-freezing low temps here through ten days... just cool days and meh nights, probably with plenty of cloud cover.

Looks really quiet around here for the next 10 days or so.  Maybe a system in the Nov. 10-11th time frame.  This northwesterly flow pattern is really not conducive to much moisture in my area.  Probably will be in and out of windy systems with very little moisture.  Will need this pattern to become more southwestly and slow down if we want anything of value around here imo.


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#60
bud2380

Posted 29 October 2018 - 08:11 AM

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I'd love a bout of Indian Summer personally.  It's been such a cool fall.  I'd personally rather see warm weather until about Thanksgiving, then bring on snow.  But no warm weather in sight.  


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#61
CentralNebWeather

Posted 29 October 2018 - 09:05 AM

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Attached File  GFS 384.png   174.58KB   0 downloads

This might be a fun system.  Too bad it is at 384 hours on the GFS.


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#62
Niko

Posted 29 October 2018 - 09:33 AM

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I can see my snow chances increasing by late November here in SEMI. Anything prior to that during holiday traveling (Thanksgiving) would be bad timing, as that would make traveling by air or by car very difficult and cause delays, if not cancellations.



#63
jaster220

Posted 29 October 2018 - 04:23 PM

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I can see my snow chances increasing by late November here in SEMI. Anything prior to that during holiday traveling (Thanksgiving) would be bad timing, as that would make traveling by air or by car very difficult and cause delays, if not cancellations.

 

 See both '74 and '75 for that scenario in The Motor City



#64
Esquimalt

Posted 29 October 2018 - 04:33 PM

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A couple of the last GFS runs have shown what could potentially be big snowmakers between the 8th and the 15th out east...including ones one massive 985 Mb low on the 18Z and a 991 mb system on the 00Z.  Exciting times!


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#65
CentralNebWeather

Posted 29 October 2018 - 04:50 PM

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A couple of the last GFS runs have shown what could potentially be big snowmakers between the 8th and the 15th out east...including ones one massive 985 Mb low on the 18Z and a 991 mb system on the 00Z. Exciting times!


You are correct. GFS and the new PV3 GFS are showing a very active time as the calendar turns into the 2nd week of November
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#66
jaster220

Posted 29 October 2018 - 04:57 PM

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Yeah, and b4 those, Euro takes the perfect track with this week's system....a month too early for white stuff ofc :(

 

Attached File  20181029 ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_fh48-120.gif   601.14KB   0 downloads



#67
Esquimalt

Posted 29 October 2018 - 04:59 PM

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Yeah, and b4 those, Euro takes the perfect track with this week's system....a month too early for white stuff ofc :(

 

attachicon.gif20181029 ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_fh48-120.gif

Well I would appreciate a little compassion.  There are years (were 3 consecutive a little while ago) where I didn't see a single snowflake lol.   :lol:  :rolleyes:


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#68
jaster220

Posted 29 October 2018 - 05:01 PM

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A couple of the last GFS runs have shown what could potentially be big snowmakers between the 8th and the 15th out east...including ones one massive 985 Mb low on the 18Z and a 991 mb system on the 00Z.  Exciting times!

 

d*mn, guess I needed to loop the 18z a bit further, thx for pointing this out Esquimalt



#69
Esquimalt

Posted 29 October 2018 - 05:03 PM

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d*mn, guess I needed to loop the 18z a bit further, thx for pointing this out Esquimalt

geez, the new form of gfs shows a 969 mb low. A little too far north for white stuff but nonetheless 969 mb in Ontario is some serious stuff.    


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#70
jaster220

Posted 29 October 2018 - 05:06 PM

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Well I would appreciate a little compassion.  There are years (were 3 consecutive a little while ago) where I didn't see a single snowflake lol.   :lol:  :rolleyes:

 

I can't honestly appreciate your situation since I've not spent a winter anywhere like that. Here in The Mitt, it's been an almost 3 yr drought for SWMI without a significant storm taking the "golden track" shown on that Euro run. Despite normal or above snowfall, a lack of a major storm will eventually cause winter paranoia around these parts, lol



#71
jaster220

Posted 29 October 2018 - 05:50 PM

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Well I would appreciate a little compassion.  There are years (were 3 consecutive a little while ago) where I didn't see a single snowflake lol.   :lol:  :rolleyes:

 

Oh, and btw, I do hope you catch a nice storm when you come over our way to Ontario. Even if it's too warm down here in mby. Just based on climo alone you stand a very decent chance of scoring. What are your dates of visit again, and how far north will you be?



#72
Niko

Posted 29 October 2018 - 05:53 PM

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Yeah, and b4 those, Euro takes the perfect track with this week's system....a month too early for white stuff ofc :(

 

attachicon.gif20181029 ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_fh48-120.gif

:wacko: Cant get better than that.


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#73
Niko

Posted 29 October 2018 - 05:55 PM

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No warm up in sight. Warmest readings I can find for my area in Nov are 50s. Bottom drops after the 20th.


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#74
Niko

Posted 29 October 2018 - 05:56 PM

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Halloween night looking cloudish and chilly w temps in the 40s.



#75
jaster220

Posted 29 October 2018 - 06:17 PM

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Already a chilly 40F here. Heading for 35F by morning. Car could be frosty again depending on whether early onset of clouds via Wisco. Hardly catch a break between systems and I'm loving this real chill autumn pattern. Stepped outside to run up to the mkt, and smelled someone burning wood..ahhh what a nice aroma. Thought I was back in the forest of the Northland for a minute :D


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#76
jaster220

Posted 29 October 2018 - 06:18 PM

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Halloween night looking cloudish and chilly w temps in the 40s.

 

may even be lingering rain, no?



#77
Niko

Posted 29 October 2018 - 06:21 PM

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may even be lingering rain, no?

Mainly dry, but would not be surprised if a few spotty showers pass by. Rain should end Wednesday morning and then, remaining cloudy for the remainder of the day.



#78
Grizzcoat

Posted 29 October 2018 - 08:51 PM

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00Z GFS has a nice shot of cold and light snows for much of the region on this sub forum on the 8th - 9th of NOV. This is something relatively new and doesn't really fit the teleconnections around the globe but lets hope it's on to something.....


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#79
GDR

Posted 29 October 2018 - 11:14 PM

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Looks like the MJO is headed to phase 3 mid nov which means a warmer outlook also the cfsv2 is looking very toasty so will see.

#80
Grizzcoat

Posted 29 October 2018 - 11:53 PM

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Euro has a strong system even earlier than GFS. (just after Election Day). For the sake of simpliciity, I just did 240 HR as there really is no other systems that would affect these "fantasy" totals. One can dream- even in early NOV as I did go through Halloween SupeSnow of 1991. Attached File  ecmwfued-null--usnc-240-C-kucheratot.png   66.81KB   0 downloads


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#81
Tom

Posted 30 October 2018 - 02:55 AM

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Euro has a strong system even earlier than GFS. (just after Election Day). For the sake of simpliciity, I just did 240 HR as there really is no other systems that would affect these "fantasy" totals. One can dream- even in early NOV as I did go through Halloween SupeSnow of 1991. attachicon.gifecmwfued-null--usnc-240-C-kucheratot.png

Grizz, nice to see ya back buddy!  Hope you had a great summer.  Ready for tracking winter storms this season??  BTW, I took a look at the 12z EPS members for this particular storm and there are a lot of members spinning up a monster storm somewhere across our region.  This may be the next winter storm we track around here.  


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#82
Tom

Posted 30 October 2018 - 03:31 AM

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I'll start off by saying, this month is going to be a heck of a ride with storms galore from what I'm seeing right now.  Such an exciting pattern is shaping up and it starts off in earnest across the S Plains in deep TX, as a piece of energy ramps up along a dragging CF draped across the Arklatex region right up into the OV.  The models have been wavering on the exact track, but I'm seeing the Euro really try to dig and deepen this system into a healthy developed storm into the low 990's across SW Ontario. In fact, it's showing a decent defo band of precip across OK/MO/IL/IN/MI while tracking across the OV.  The next 2 weeks will likely feature many cutter's as the SE is showing no signs of breaking up through mid month.  Gear up for an exciting month!

 

FWIW, the signal for snow fall is growing across the MW/Upper MW and now into parts of W NE as we get deeper into the month.  From what I'm seeing, the GEFS are showing a stronger signal for a Cross Polar Flow pattern shaping up just beyond Day 10.  Another clue that I'm seeing is the location of a new pocket of 30mb warming evolving across the NE PAC/Aleutians Islands which suggest to me that the SE ridge may grow around Week 3-4 of November and that is right around the time I mentioned the LRC could begin to re-cycle.  My target date has been around 11/22 so we'll see how this all shapes up later in the month.  I recall vividly, the opening days of October had a nasty NE PAC ridge and a massive EC ridge all in tandem.  If you were to ask me where I'd like to see the 30mb warming evolve in order to forecast a pattern as mentioned, it would be in this exact location.  Let's see what nature decides to do.

 

temp30anim.gif


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#83
Niko

Posted 30 October 2018 - 05:36 AM

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I'll start off by saying, this month is going to be a heck of a ride with storms galore from what I'm seeing right now.  Such an exciting pattern is shaping up and it starts off in earnest across the S Plains in deep TX, as a piece of energy ramps up along a dragging CF draped across the Arklatex region right up into the OV.  The models have been wavering on the exact track, but I'm seeing the Euro really try to dig and deepen this system into a healthy developed storm into the low 990's across SW Ontario. In fact, it's showing a decent defo band of precip across OK/MO/IL/IN/MI while tracking across the OV.  The next 2 weeks will likely feature many cutter's as the SE is showing no signs of breaking up through mid month.  Gear up for an exciting month!

 

FWIW, the signal for snow fall is growing across the MW/Upper MW and now into parts of W NE as we get deeper into the month.  From what I'm seeing, the GEFS are showing a stronger signal for a Cross Polar Flow pattern shaping up just beyond Day 10.  Another clue that I'm seeing is the location of a new pocket of 30mb warming evolving across the NE PAC/Aleutians Islands which suggest to me that the SE ridge may grow around Week 3-4 of November and that is right around the time I mentioned the LRC could begin to re-cycle.  My target date has been around 11/22 so we'll see how this all shapes up later in the month.  I recall vividly, the opening days of October had a nasty NE PAC ridge and a massive EC ridge all in tandem.  If you were to ask me where I'd like to see the 30mb warming evolve in order to forecast a pattern as mentioned, it would be in this exact location.  Let's see what nature decides to do.

 

temp30anim.gif

I have never seen such a huge ridge in the GOA. Notice how far north the warm waters have gone there. The graph above illustrates waters being at least 3 to 4 degrees warmer than usual. Just amazing.



#84
Tom

Posted 30 October 2018 - 06:14 AM

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I have never seen such a huge ridge in the GOA. Notice how far north the warm waters have gone there. The graph above illustrates waters being at least 3 to 4 degrees warmer than usual. Just amazing.

The graphic above are the 30mb temps, not the SST’s, but you are right regarding the impressive warmth of the waters in the NE PAC which are in deed impacting the general region nearby.

#85
bud2380

Posted 30 October 2018 - 08:14 AM

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Whoa Euro!  Every once in awhile the Euro will do something like that and then dramatically back off, but I definitely give it more of a shot than if we saw it on the GFS.  I'll be interested to see what today's run shows.  Looks like a nice storm right now.  192 hours isn't so far out of the realm of possibility either.  

 

 

 

sfcmslp.conus.png


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#86
jaster220

Posted 30 October 2018 - 08:52 AM

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Such an exciting pattern is shaping up and it starts off in earnest across the S Plains in deep TX, as a piece of energy ramps up along a dragging CF draped across the Arklatex region right up into the OV.  The models have been wavering on the exact track, but I'm seeing the Euro really try to dig and deepen this system into a healthy developed storm into the low 990's across SW Ontario. In fact, it's showing a decent defo band of precip across OK/MO/IL/IN/MI while tracking across the OV. 

 

:) Just like last year, the GEM also following the Euro's lead and amps this decently. Meanwhile, the GFS is out to lunch with it's progressive self.  :wacko:

 

Sure will elevate my confidence in the Euro-GEM duo if they score the coup with this early test of the models. 

 

Nothing like OHV-GLs bombs in the cards as they say. Here's a "GEM" pummeling mby next week  B)

 

Attached File  gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_37.png   167.79KB   0 downloads


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#87
Stormgeek

Posted 30 October 2018 - 08:59 AM

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Whoa Euro! Every once in awhile the Euro will do something like that and then dramatically back off, but I definitely give it more of a shot than if we saw it on the GFS. I'll be interested to see what today's run shows. Looks like a nice storm right now. 192 hours isn't so far out of the realm of possibility either.



sfcmslp.conus.png


That is so beautiful. I don't care if it is fantasy land, that is amazing!:D
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#88
Esquimalt

Posted 30 October 2018 - 09:13 AM

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Do you guys trust the new GFS or the old for temperature anomalies/major precipitation events?  Because the new GFs has been a whole lot more promising of late for cold and snow.  



#89
bud2380

Posted 30 October 2018 - 10:28 AM

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the new GFS is on the storm.

 

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_28.png


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#90
james1976

Posted 30 October 2018 - 10:45 AM

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Euro is colder than GFS. Who wins?

#91
Niko

Posted 30 October 2018 - 11:00 AM

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As of now, November is looking stormy. Whether is rain, snow or both, we will have to see.


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#92
Esquimalt

Posted 30 October 2018 - 11:00 AM

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Euro is colder than GFS. Who wins?

Hopefully the King Euro  :lol:



#93
bud2380

Posted 30 October 2018 - 11:13 AM

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Euro still has the storm, shifted it southeast some though.  Doesn't look like as much cold air on the back side though.

 

 

sfcmslp.conus.png


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#94
St Paul Storm

Posted 30 October 2018 - 11:18 AM

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The Arrowhead and Thunder Bay hit hard on that run. Cold air is lacking in the Midwest. Actually looks like a lot of 240 hr snowfall happens before early next week in the Arrowhead.

#95
Niko

Posted 30 October 2018 - 02:27 PM

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@Jaster...

 

Do ya think we will see a Winterstorm in November? Better yet, do you think its a good idea, in terms of getting  a snowstorm during that month. Some say that November snows mean a lame Winter to follow. Idk, but, tbh, I don't usually believe in that crap, but, ya neva know, right?! No?! :blink:



#96
jaster220

Posted 30 October 2018 - 03:52 PM

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@Jaster...

 

Do ya think we will see a Winterstorm in November? Better yet, do you think its a good idea, in terms of getting  a snowstorm during that month. Some say that November snows mean a lame Winter to follow. Idk, but, tbh, I don't usually believe in that crap, but, ya neva know, right?! No?! :blink:

 

What we do have here in The Mitt is a very positive connection during good winters between a strong storm (doesn't have to be a snow maker tbh) in November and another strong storm the following January/February.

 

Here's a list of years when when this came true:

Nov '66 & Jan '67

Nov '89 & Jan '90

Nov '98 & Jan '99

Nov '13 & Jan '14

Nov '15 & Feb '16

 

These two featured major LES events in November followed by Big Dogs

Nov '77 & Jan '78

Nov '14 & Feb 1st '15

 

Interestingly, Nov of 2013 only had 1.2" of snowfall here in Marshall. Shows that we can still have a great winter without much snow during the month before MET winter. As Tom has pointed out tho, this winter may well begin early and thus this November may break the mold so to speak. At least in modern times.


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#97
jaster220

Posted 30 October 2018 - 04:54 PM

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#FOUND

 

1st fantasy winter storm for mby

 

 

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#98
St Paul Storm

Posted 30 October 2018 - 05:12 PM

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#FOUND

1st fantasy winter storm for mby

Hey, only 348 hours til game time. Ha! Locked and loaded.
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#99
Tom

Posted 31 October 2018 - 03:20 AM

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Overnight runs are beginning to show some consistency towards another system digging deep into the S Plains early next week and cutting up towards the GL's.  The GFS/GGEM are showing a GL's bomb, while the Euro has taken a step back but still advertising a healthy storm around the GL's.  I'm loving the way these systems are literally digging and energizing right over our sub forum and keeping the action smack dab in the central CONUS.  Some of you on here may remember the storms during the '77-'78 era...did they track in a similar fashion???  I mean, this area of our region is action packed with systems every other day it seems.

 

Individual 00z GEFS members are showing a lot of big systems...

 

gefs_ptype_21_greatlakes_180.png

 

 

 

 

 

00z GEFS individual members are reminiscent of the old fashioned storm tracks that pound the region in the winter season...00z EPS members are also looking similar....this will likely be our next storm thread....

 

 

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#100
Tom

Posted 31 October 2018 - 03:27 AM

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Looking out farther, nearly every model is now starting to agree that a big shot of arctic air is on the table post 6th/7th storm system.  This may even tug down a piece of the Vortex if everything lines.  In a season which everything seems to be aligning, why not???  I've showed the clues off the GEFS 10mb forecasts and they are becoming very clear, the Polar Vortex will be perturbed as we head into early November and reminds me of how it evolved in the very cold '13-'14 season....stretched out and perturbed...it was not long ago, this particular model was not agreeing at 500mb with it's own 10mb forecasts and I knew without any doubts it would trend colder, much colder.

 

 

 

 

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